SOLAR ENERGY OVERVIEW WHAT S S NEW WHAT S S NEXT WHAT S S NEEDED

Transcription

1 SOLAR ENERGY OVERVIEW WHAT S S NEW WHAT S S NEXT WHAT S S NEEDED

2 PHOTOVOLTAICS NEW: CONCENTRATOR PV NEXT: MULTIPLE JUNCTION 2

3 PV Deployment & Cost Extrapolation MW PV Installed Per Year % CAGR 35% CAGR Market (40%) year 42% CAGR Median of industry forecasts calls for 8GW in 2010 (>45% CAGR) 3

4 Silicon Cost/Volume Extrapolation Cost Decreases 20% for Every Doubling of Production Dick Swanson argues that there is no big secret on how to make high efficient solar cells in the lab but knowing how to scale is hard It took both First Solar and Sunpower more than 10 years to hone their mfg skills Source: Dick Swanson of Sunpower Corp at 2006 MIT Stanford UC Berkeley Nanotechnology Forum and Greentech Jan 2008 Podcast 4

5 MOVING BEYOND SILICON 5

6 Triple Junction Cell Energy Conversion Efficiency = Electrical power (Output) Light power (Input) Energy Conversion Efficiency of Silicon Cell Energy Conversion Efficiency of MJ Cell Silicon 1 Junction Silicon Solar Cell Material1 3 Junction Solar Cell Stack Material2 Material3 6

7 Needed: Broader Spectral Response 1.9eV InGaP Junction (42% of total sun power) 1.42eV GaAs Junction (24% of total sun power) 0.7eV Ge Junction (30% of total sun power) Uncollected Long Wavelength Light (4% of total sun power) 7 Name

8 Need for Lattice-matched materials Computer simulation of the dark line defects seen in semiconductor lasers. New materials systems & growth processes will be required for wider spectral response. 8

9 SOLAR THERMAL NEW: NON-TRACKING PANELS NEXT: NEW APPLICATIONS 9

10 Today s Solar Thermal The Solar Energy Generating Systems (SEGS) at Kramer Junction, CA (SEGS III-VII) Five 30MW hybrid trough plants for a total of 150MW Capacity Commissioned Performance has increased with time Four additional SEGS plants located in two locations (Daggett, Harper Lake) for combined total of nine plants and 354 MW capacity 10

11 Parabolic Troughs, A Closer Look 11

12 Small-Scale Non-tracking System Higher efficiency and temperature than competing collectors Ultimately 50% at 200 C Lower cost: Non-tracking design Well suited to many midtemperature commercial and industrial applications 12

13 Non-tracking Target Applications Commercial scale hot water» Northern geographies» Limited roof space» High water demand in all geographies Industrial process heat» e.g. dairy, food prep., mining, drying, oil extraction, pre-heating HVAC» Absorption cooling with heat application» Initial penetration in Europe (Spain) 13

14 WIND POWER NEW: STADIUM SIZE WINDMILLS NEXT: ELECTRONIC GEAR-BOXES 14

15 Wind Has Comparable Costs Close to Coal COE = Cost of Energy Comparable to Coal and Natural Gas Wind avg $0.056/kWh ($0.04~$0.12/kWh) Coal is $0.025~0.053/kWh Natural Gas $0.040~0.052/kWh Japan Retail Parity US Retail Parity Wholesale Price from Coal 15

16 Bigger (and offshore) is better 16

17 Size of Blade Makes A Difference > 74GW installed; 20% growth > CAPEX is $2-3/w > Already a big business > Constrained by steel cost, hard to make gear box, ideal wind sites far from demands > Future opportunity is off-shore wind or distributed small wind 17

18 Denmark: Global wind powerhouse World s largest windmill manufacturer 20 % of electricity comes from wind 50 % projected by 2025 Electric cars to act as batteries 18

19 ELECTRIC VEHICLES NEW: PLUG-IN VEHICLES NEXT: CHARGING INFRASTUCTURE 19

20 Stretching Our Fuel Supply: Today s Automobile IDLE ACCESSORIES DRIVETRAIN ENGINE LOSSES Only 1 gallon in 15 goes to moving the wheels 20

21 Prius: Better than a gas-hog, but. Small (2 kw-hr) NiCad battery, short (1-2 2 km) range. Partial discharge only. Captures energy from regenerative breaking. Engine must drive generator and wheels (can t t be optimized for a single task). 21

22 Chevrolet VOLT: Electric drive plug-in 16 kwh Li-ion battery. 65 km range on one charge. Overnight charging requires 220V. Small gasoline engine can recharge battery for additional 480 km. 22

23 NEEDED STEPS GROW THE GRID: Transmission lines to link cities with deserts. example BEHAVIORAL CHANGE: Time of day pricing. example GREENER BUILDINGS: High-R windows and insulation. example 23

24 SOLAR ENERGY OVERVIEW QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS PLEASE