Martin Hilbert,

Transcription

1 I N F R A S T R U C T U R E I N F R A S T R U C T U R E GENERIC S E R V I C E S REG. FRAMEWORK I N F R A S T R U C T U R E GENERIC S E R V I C E S I N F R A S T R U C T U R E GENERIC S E R V I C E S I N F R A S T R U C T U R E REG. FRAMEWORK GENERIC S E R V I C E S I N F R A S T R U C T U R E GENERIC S E R V I C E S REG. FRAMEWORK REG. FRAMEWORK e-government e-business e-government e-business e-government e-business e-business e-government e-health e-culture e-learning e-media F I N A N C I N G HUMAN CAPITAL F I N A N C I N G HUMAN CAPITAL Martin Hilbert, mhilbert@eclac.cl

2 TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION Digitalization of Information and Communication in economy and society DESCRIPTION Motorization of economy and transport Information and Communication Technologies Biotechnology? Mechanization of industry water-powered Cotton-spinning, iron products, water wheels Mechanization of industry+ transport steampowered Steam-engines, railway, machine tools Electrification of industry, transport and home Electrical + Heavy engineering, synthetics Automobile, tanks, diesel engines, aircraft KEY CARRIER SECTORS 177 s 184 s 189 s 194 s 199 s TIME

3 Abacus calculator 3 B.C. Mechanical Calculator 15 A.D. Compasses 1579 Electronic speech Electromechanical synthesizer 1937 computer Transistor Microprocessor 1971 PC 1981 Wallpainting etc. Newsletter J.Caesar 59 B.C. Chinese Paper 15 A.D. Printing Press 145 News paper 152 Radio broadcasting 1918 TV transmission 1927 Color TV 196 Stereo TV 1984 Smoke & Fire Signals, Drums, etc. Trumpets & horns J. Caesar 1 B.C. Chappe Telegraph 1794 Electro magnetic Telegraph 1837 Transatlantic Cable 1856 Telephone 1876 Cellular 1984

4 Mobile services extended access to telephony significantly in Chile (2) Telecommunications in Chile (per household) 3.2% 29.6% 28.1% 14.6% 24.5% only Fixed Fixed + Mobile only Mobile only Public Without Source: Martin R. Hilbert; based on Subtel and CASEAN, 22;

5 Information Flow in Latin America 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 6% 13% 15% Internet Mobile Main telephony 27% Television => 9 % de los hogares en América Latina tienen TV!

6 e-media BUILDING AN INFORMATION SOCIETY: I N F R A S T R U C T U R E GENERIC S E R V I C E S REG. FRAMEWORK e-business e-government e-health e-culture e-learning V E R T I C A L S E C T O R S H O R I Z O N T A L L A Y E R S F I N A N C I N G HUMAN CAPITAL D I A G O N A L A R E A S Source: Hilbert, Martin 22

7 The international Digital Divide: Internet User penetration and income per Capita 21 y =.19x R 2 = Canada Hongkong Sweden Denmark User per hundret inhabitants Netherlands Singapore Norway Australia USA New Zealand UK Switzerland Greece Germany Japan Ireland Slovenia Italy France Estonia Slovakia Poland Spain CHILE URUG BRAZIL Hungrary Rus.F. Mal DOM.R. China Czech PERUTur ARG MEX India COL VZLA Portugal G N I per capita Source: Martin Hilbert, ECLAC, 22

8 The domestic Digital Divide: Internet penetration in upper and middle class (light) vs internet penetration in overall population (dark) 1998/99 Chile Argentina México Brazil Total Latin America Argentina Mexico Brazil Estimate Internet User Total, % of population (14 years+) Internet User as a % of Top 15% of Population (14years+) Source: Martin Hilbert, ECLAC, based on ITU, BCG, 1999; emarketer, 21.

9 Income distribution In Latin America and the Caribbean: -2% 2-4% 4-6% 6-8% 8-1% RICH Population POOR Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dom. Rep. Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Uruguay Venezuela Source: ECLAC, 22

10 Potential ICT expenditures in CHILE per income group: Cost of complete ICT access packet : US$98 4 Cost of mobile telephony packet : US$24 2 Source: Martin Hilbert, 23-2% 2-4% 4-6% 6-8% 8-9% 9-1% RICH Population POOR

11 Potential ICT expenditures in BRAZIL per income group: 1 8 <= Cost of complete ICT access packet : US$ <= Cost of mobile telephony packet : US$ 3-2% 1 2-4% 2 4-6% 3 6-8% 4 8-9% 5 9-1% 6 RICH Population POOR

12 TV receivers per 1, inhabitants 5 4 TV penetration and GNI per capita 197 Sweden USA TV receivers per 1, inhabitants y =.897x R 2 =.8559 Stable line of reference Japan Canada 3 Belgium Austria Norway Fin Switzerland y =.271x France TV penetration and GNI per capita 198 Italy R 2 =.7281 Australia 2 Nethl 7 USA ARG Ireland HK Spain 6 URUG 1 Stable line of reference BRAZIL VZLA CHILE Japan COL Portugal 5 MX PERU Greece Canada Sweden S.Africa $ $5, $1, $15, Fin $2, Nethl 4 Italy $25, Belg GNI per capita Austria Australia Switzerland Norway Singapore France 3 France Spain y =.19x HK Ireland TV penetration and GNI per capita 1997 R 2 = ARG 9 Greece URUG Portugal BRAZIL 8 1 VZLA USA CHILE Stable line of reference MX 7 Canada Thailand Japan India Finaland $ $5, $1, $15, 6 $2, $25, $3, $35, France Australia Germany Denmark Czech Italy GNI per capita New Zealand Slovakia UK 5 Sweden Belgium Norway Hungary Spain Switzerland 4 Estonia Slovenia Ireland Singapore Turkey Portugal 3 China MX HK URUG Thailand Greece ARG 2 VZLA CHILE PERU BRAZIL COL 1 DOM.R. Philippines $ $5, $1, $15, $2, $25, $3, $35, $4, $45, Source: Martin R. Hilbert, ECLAC, 22; based on UNESCO, World Bank, 22 TV receivers per 1, inhabitants Historical evidence on the TV-divide : GNI per capita

13 The domestic Digital Divide has many dimensions: The EDUCATIONAL Divide $75+ $ $ Under $15 S ome college < High school 6 Income (Thousands) 4 2 Some college < Hi g h s c h o o l $75+ $35- $15- Under $15 Income (Thousands)

14 The domestic Digital Divide has many dimensions: % % The AGE Divide ICT Usage by Age Group Concentration in Capital 27City (Example Santiago 2 de Chile) Cellular Microcomputer Internet Percent of Population 2 15 Percent of GDP Percent of Internet users 1 Percent of ecommerce 5 Percent of Population Pe rc e nt of Inte rne t us e rs P e rc e n t o f e Co mme rc e ICT Usage by Age Group The EDUCATIONAL Divide $75+ $ $ Under $15 Income (Thousands) S ome college < High school Concentration in Capital City (Example Santiago de Chile) The GEOGRAPHIC Divide Percent of GDP Cellular Microcomputer Internet

15 The domestic Digital Divide has many dimensions: The AGE Divide ICT Usage by Age Group The EDUCATIONAL Divide % Canada Cellular Microcomputer Internet United States Argentina United Kingdom Brazil Japan Spain MEXICO France Germ any Italy Percent of Population Percent of GDP Pe rc e nt of Inte rne t us e rs P e rc e n t o f e Co mme rc e Concentration in Capital City (Example Santiago de Chile) $75+ $ $ Income (Thousands) Canada United States Argentina United Kingdom Brazil Japan Spain MEXICO France Germany Italy Under $15 S ome college < High school The GEOGRAPHIC Divide The GENDER Divide

16 The domestic Digital Divide has many dimensions: The AGE Divide ICT Usage by Age Group The EDUCATIONAL Divide % Cellular Microcomputer Internet Percent of GDP Pe rc e nt of Inte rne t us e rs P e rc e n t o f e Co mme rc e Percent of Population The ETHNIC ORIGIN Divide Without education Concentration in Capital City (Example Santiago de Chile) Canada United States Argentina United Kingdom Brazil Indigenous indigenous Germany Italy < High school $75+ $35- $15- Under Indigenous $15 Income (Thousands) Without Professionals Post- education Panama Mexico Costa graduate Rica Profes- Japan Spain MEXICO Panama Mexico sionals graduate Non Costa Rica France Post- S ome college The GEOGRAPHIC Divide The GENDER Divide 51.9 Non 51.4 indigenous

17 e-media I N F R A S T R U C T U R E GENERIC S E R V I C E S REG. FRAMEWORK e-business e-government e-health e-culture e-learning V E R T I C A L S E C T O R S H O R I Z O N T A L L A Y E R S F I N A N C I N G HUMAN CAPITAL D I A G O N A L A R E A S

18 GENERIC SERVICE Layer: Software 3 Start year of administrative software in PERU in percent of total software %

19 1% 8% % 2% 9% 12% 13% 17% 18% 22% 29% 67% - 1% 34% - 66% 6% 1% - 33% 4% 2% 75% 51% 51% 61% 43% 38% 34% 38% % % 14% 1% 8% 6% 5% 11% 19% 23% 35% 4% 41% 52% 6% 67% - 1% 34% - 66% 4% 1% - 33% % 2% % 27% 41% 31% 29% 17% 38% 13% 8% 18%

20 SUPPLIER CRM BI SCM CRM CLIENT SCM CRM CLIENT SUPPLIER ERP SCM CRM e-marketplace CLIENT SUPPLIER SCM CRM CLIENT SUPPLIER CLIENT CLIENT SUPPLIER THE DIGITAL ECONOMY CLIENT

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22 Selected companies of AOL-Time Warner Source: AOL-Time Warner, 22.

23 International Peak-Hour Internet Traffic flows from and to Latin America 21.2 Gbit/s 9.7 Gbit/s 2.8 Gbit/s.1 Gbit/s.4 Gbit/s 1.9 Gbit/s 1.1 Gbit/s.1 Gbit/s Source: AHCIET-REGULATEL, 21

24 Share of Consumers Shopping at Domestic and Foreign WebSites in LA, the U.S., and Europe, 2 Source: InfoAmericas, 2 Domestic Foreign Argentina 37% 63% Brazil 61% 39% Chile 25% 75% Colombia 34% 66% Mexico 4% 6% Peru 2% 8% Venezuela 23% 77% Latin America (avg) 41% 59% U.S. 91% 9% Europe (avg) 41% 59%

25 e-media I N F R A S T R U C T U R E GENERIC S E R V I C E S REG. FRAMEWORK e-business e-government e-health e-culture e-learning V E R T I C A L S E C T O R S H O R I Z O N T A L L A Y E R S F I N A N C I N G HUMAN CAPITAL D I A G O N A L A R E A S

26 World Population English Spanish French Pages Pages 2 Italian Portuguese REST English Spanish French Italian Portuguese REST English Spanish French Italian Portuguese REST Pages 21 English Spanish French 52 Italian Portuguese 2.81 REST Source: Funredes

27 Online Population English Spanish French Italian Portuguese Pages English Spanish French Italian Portuguese Pages 21 Online Population Pag. / Onl. English Spanish French Italian Portuguese Source: Funredes 2

28 e-media I N F R A S T R U C T U R E GENERIC S E R V I C E S REG. FRAMEWORK e-business e-government e-health e-culture e-learning V E R T I C A L S E C T O R S H O R I Z O N T A L L A Y E R S F I N A N C I N G HUMAN CAPITAL D I A G O N A L A R E A S

29 (A) Political Will (B) Continuity of the strategy (C) Coordination between participants (D) Financing (E) Thematic priorities

30 Hierarchical level, decree/ordinance, green/white book, political back-up, employees, scope and involvement, etc Involve existing projects/leaders, centralized vs. decentralized management/ financial administration, set-up of action plan and operational steps, implementation of several work lines, etc

31 H O R I Z O N T A L L A Y E R S I N F R A S T R U C T U R E GENERIC S E R V I C E S F I N A N C I N G e-business e-government e-health e-culture e-learning e-media V E R T I C A L S E C T O R S HUMAN CAPITAL REG.FRAMEWORK D I A G O N A L A R E A S Source: Martin Hilbert, ECLAC, 22