Market developments in Turkey

Transcription

1 Metsä213 Joint session of the ECE Committee on Forests and the Forest Industry and the FAO European Forestry Commission Market developments in Turkey Ramazan BALI Director of market research section

2 Main economic indicators and trends Turkish economy is the 17th biggest economy Economic growth is quite high with 5,1% average GDP growth in last 1 years in spite of adverse effect of global economic crises Strong banking system, low budget deficit (,3 %of GDP) and low public debt (36% of GDP) are strengths High payment deficit is the main weakness Economic recovery slowdowned, after strong recovery witnessed in 21 and 211 by 8.9% and 8.5% GDP Growth in 212 and the first half of 213 are 2,2% and 3,7% Overall picture of construction and furniture sectors look strong

3 TÜRKİYE DE TÜRKİYE DE GDP ODUN Growth ODUN ARZ rates TALEP DURUMU DURUMU Annual GDP Growth rates Es

4 Construction Indicators according to construction permits Despite moderate increase of building number, Dwelling unit number and floor area are increasing rapidly This means taller buildings larger dwellings Changing construction techniques and multistorey buildings cause less wood usage Number of building and floor area Number of building (1) Floor area (million m2) Number of dwelling unit (1) Number of dwelling unit

5 Furniture sector Furniture sector, the most important area for wood products consumption, has been growing fast since 2 Rapid growth of the sector thanks to strong domestic demand and dramatic increase of export 12 1 Wood furniture export and import volues 13 Export import Value Million $ Export İmport

6 TÜRKİYE DE Suply TÜRKİYE DE source ODUN of ODUN industrial ARZ TALEP wood DURUMU DURUMU 76% of demand met by public production 6% Most of private production is made from poplar plantation in agricultural land Import amount and it s share are decreasing as a result of taxation and other restrictions 18% 76% GDF Private Import

7 Public forest source 9.6 mil. ha allocated for wood production out of 21.7 million ha public forest Total Allocated for production Annual increment is quite higher than felling There is quite big potential for additional felling Forest are mil. Ha. İncreament mil. m³ Felling mil. m³ Round wood Production mil. m³

8 Roundwood TÜRKİYE DE TÜRKİYE DE production ODUN ODUN ARZ from TALEP puplic DURUMU DURUMU forest Industrial roundwood production doubled in last decade Strong demand by panel industry Satisfying price Policy priority of GDF Ambitious strategic plan targets (2 mil m³ ind. wood and 5,8 mil m³ fuel wood production in 217) Es. GDF Ind. Wood production Total End. wood counsuption

9 Price trends of wood products $/m3 Roundwood prices are relatively high General trend of prices is flat, rd clas pine sawlog 3rd clas beech sawlog Small sawlog Chipswood Pulpwood Sawlog price is slightly downward The price fall in 213 is mainly caused by oversupply Constant prices: 211 (TL/$ : 2,2)

10 TÜRKİYE DE TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU DURUMU Pine sawlog monthly auction sales and prices Unsold Sold Price Amount (1 M3) 29 Şubat Mart Nisan Mayıs Haziran Temmuz Ağustos Eylül Ekim Kasım Aralık 21 Şubat Mart Nisan Mayıs Haziran Temmuz Ağustos Eylül Ekim Kasım Aralık 211 Şubat Mart Nisan Mayıs Haziran Temmuz Ağustos Eylül Ekim Kasım Aralık 212 Şubat Mart Nisan Mayıs Haziran Temmuz Ağustos Eylül Ekim Kasım Aralık 213 Şubat Mart Nisan Mayıs Haziran Temmuz Ağustos Eylül Ekim Kasım Price TL.

11 Wood industry Wood industry is composed of too many enterprises (23,83) employ 118, worker The industry is being consolidating The development performance are well over than manufacture industry in terms of turnover, production value and value added Development performance and potential of wood working industry branches are significantly different from each other Particle board, fibre board, pallet and other packing equipment production have increased strongly in recent years, but massive parquet, sawnwood and plywood branches witnessed serious problems

12 TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU Production TÜRKİYE DE capacity of ODUN particle ARZ TALEP and fibre DURUMU board industry 1 m³/year 6,9 6,6 6,3 6, 5,7 5,4 5,1 4,8 4,5 4,2 3,9 3,6 3,3 3, 2,7 2,4 2,1 1,8 1,5 1, Particle board Fibre board 2, Beside new investments, renovation and capacity expansion continues apace, especially in fibreboard branch

13 TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU Particle and TÜRKİYE DE fibre ODUN board ARZ production TALEP DURUMU and consumption Production increased paralleling investments The increase of fibreboard production is more striking, by 5% rise Amount 1 m³ 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Particle board prod. Fibre board prod. Part. Board comsuption Fibre board consumption

14 Sawnwood production and consumption Sawnwood production showed flat trend between 1993 and 21 Since 22, production and consumption have been increasing depending on increasing pallet and packing equipment demand The increase of consumption is more visible Hard sawnwood market seems to contract Amount (1 m³) soft sawnwood tropical hard sawnwood borial hard sawnwood total consumption

15 TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU Trade of wood products Chapter 44: Wood and Articles of Wood; Turkey is net importer of wood products in total. Export value is lower than half of import Value Million.$ Import Es. Export

16 Trade of wood products by assortments Turkey is net importer of roundwood, sawnwood and plywood but exporter of secondary processed wood products Import increase of chips and sawnwood is very sharp Chips import rise to 3 million mt. in 212 from 5 thousands in 22 Value million $ Import Export

17 Trade of wood products Import and export balance changed absolutely in last decade Major reasons are; High cost of domestic production including taxation and transport Decrease of sawlog import depending on restrictions Demand for high quality sawlog 1 m³ Import Export

18 Wood Energy TÜRKİYE DE TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU DURUMU Wood energy Woodpulp production In spite of incentives for energy generation from wood, there is no substantial investment yet The competitive and politic strength of panel industry beside concerns about wood raw material availability are main factors discourage investments Woodpulp Four plants closed in last decade because of insufficient competitiveness and hard global market conditions Only one is working with 75 mt production Paper and paper bord production, consumption and import increase significantly

19 Certification Total certificated forest area is 1.8 million hectare and certification process is continuing in another.68 million ha forest area Felling from certificated forest is 2.4 million m³, equal to 15%of totall felling All certifications is by FSC National certification scheme (PEFC) is being developed

20 prospects of markets Considering the increase of construction permits and high performance of furniture sector, slightly market recovery can be expected for 214, but European market conditions and political instability in middle east will be determining factors Capacity expansion of panel industry likely to continue but at lower speed. Possible investment in wood energy and cheaper good import are main threats The rapid increase of roundwood production from public forest likely to continue Slight price rebound is forecasted in 214

21 TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU Conclusion TÜRKİYE DE and ODUN prospects ARZ TALEP DURUMU THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATENTIONS of