Invesco Global Equity Income Fund

Transcription

1 Invesco Global Equity Income Fund May 2015 This document is exclusively for use by Professional Clients and Financial Advisers in Continental Europe and Professional Clients in the UK and for Qualified Investors in Switzerland and is not for consumer use. Please do not redistribute.

2 Contents Invesco Global Equity Income Fund Investment team and philosophy Investment process Portfolio positioning Portfolio performance Appendix 2

3 Invesco Global Equity Income Fund

4 Invesco Global Equity Income Fund Fund profile Investment objective Aims to generate a rising level of income, together with long-term capital growth, investing primarily in global equities Fund inception 2 March 2009 Invesco Global Equity Income Fund has been managed by Invesco since 5 July 2010 Benchmark Fund manager Investment philosophy and process No. of holdings Market cap Average holding period MSCI World index ND Nick Mustoe (Supported by the Invesco Perpetual Global Equity Income Group) Unconstrained, valuation-led, bottom-up investment approach We aim to construct a high conviction portfolio of the best global quality income ideas All cap 3 years Invesco Global Equity Income Fund Cumulative returns, net of fees in USD (%) months 1 year 3 years Since managed* Invesco Global Equity Income Fund MSCI World index Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Source: Lipper as at 31 March Fund performance figures are shown for the A Acc share class, in USD on a mid-to-mid basis, inclusive of reinvested income and net of ongoing charges and portfolio transaction costs. The figures do not reflect the entry charge paid by individual investors. Benchmark source: Invesco, net return, in USD. *Invesco has managed the fund since 5 July The Invesco Global Equity Income Fund was formerly named Morgan Stanley Global Value Equity Fund, and it became the Invesco Global Value Equity Fund on 6 September 2010 as part of Invesco s acquisition of Van Kampen Investments/Morgan Stanley Retail Asset Management Business. The fund was finally renamed to Invesco Global Equity Income Fund on 30 September

5 Investment team & philosophy

6 Invesco Perpetual Global Equity Income Group Bringing together the best regional quality income ideas Specialist regional income managers Name Role Industry experience (years) Firm tenure (years) Simon Clinch US - regional specialist 17 3 Stephanie Butcher Europe ex UK regional specialist Mark Barnett UK regional specialist Tim Dickson Asia ex Japan regional specialist 22 7 Tony Roberts Japan regional specialist Management Nick Mustoe Chief Investment Officer, Invesco Perpetual 30 5 Strategy oversight and implementation Martin Weiss Investment Strategist Arwel Green Product Manager, Global Equities & Multi-Asset Product Director John Botham Product Director, Global Equities 22 1 Regional income specialists possess an average of 20 years industry experience Source: Invesco as at 31 March Figures for industry experience and firm tenure may be rounded up. 6

7 Invesco Perpetual Global Equity Income Group The benefits of our team approach Seasoned fund managers, not analysts Best of breed stocks - the highest conviction quality income ideas from regional portfolios Ownership of the idea within the portfolio Portfolio construction experience and expertise Interests aligned with total portfolio performance 7

8 Investment philosophy Quality income and capital upside We seek companies that: Can grow margins & increase financial returns across an economic cycle Exhibit strong and sustainable free cash flow Engage in capital allocation that benefits shareholders We believe offer attractive income and capital upside opportunities We employ a valuation-led quality income approach 8

9 Investment process

10 Investment process Idea generation Ideas are generated from the research capability of our regional equity investment teams. Fundamental research Exhaustive bottom-up analysis of the business and its valuation Comprehensive understanding of the industry Must meet our quality income criteria. Portfolio construction & risk management High Conviction Unconstrained Valuation driven Competition for capital Typically stocks. Position sizes are based on risk/reward assessment Multi-level system of risk management For illustrative purposes only. 10

11 Investment process Idea generation Invesco Perpetual has a long history of successful active equity income investing Ideas are sourced from the Henleybased equity investment team (32 members) Deep knowledge of local markets is key to identifying attractive regional income opportunities Regional equity investment teams Over 15,000 companies All market coverage Best regional income ideas 5 regional income specialists The best regional quality income ideas 5 regional income specialists, represent the wider team The best regional quality income ideas are presented to the Global Equity Income Group (GEIG) GEIG Source: Invesco Perpetual as at 31 March For illustrative purposes only. 11

12 Investment process Fundamental research Company management Macro/ Industry Macro/Industry We seek to assess the: Drivers of a business and its position within the industry Competitive and regulatory environment Key high level risks and opportunities Financials Financials We seek to understand current and future: Revenues Margins Return on capital Balance sheet structure and stability Earnings and cash flow volatility Company valuation Company management Capital allocation and dividend policy Alignment of interests Track record and strategic vision Corporate governance Our approach is valuation-led and focuses on companies with strong balance sheets, growing dividends and attractive organic growth opportunities. For illustrative purposes only. 12

13 Investment process Portfolio construction Competition for capital: each fund manager pitches their best ideas to the Global Equity Income Group for debate and challenge. Consideration given to: - Investment case - Dividend income growth potential - Relative attraction to existing holdings and geographical alternatives in the same sector - Absolute and relative risk/reward opportunity CIO confirms stock inclusion and weight in portfolio, based on input from debate Portfolio is monitored to ensure diversification Portfolio of our best quality income ideas globally Each individual fund manager owns the stock once added and is responsible for monitoring and updating Holdings are sold if: - They become fully valued - There is a change in the investment thesis for that stock - There exists a more attractive investment opportunity elsewhere. Regional income specialists interests are aligned with the success of the total portfolio. For illustrative purposes only. 13

14 Chief Investment Officer Global macro insight Investment process Constant portfolio monitoring Regional specialists Day to day contact with market Ongoing analysis of portfolio holdings Portfolio oversight Constant monitoring Prompt portfolio review Portfolio positioning and analysis Investment oversight team Investment strategist For illustrative purposes only. 14

15 Investment process Multi-faceted risk management Independent Risk Function Global Performance and Risk Management Team CIO Challenge Adherence to philosophy and process Scenario modelling Assesses conviction, and rationale for holdings Portfolio behaviour under different market conditions For illustrative purposes only. 15

16 Portfolio positioning

17 Our outlook for global equities in 2015 Equities look broadly fair value at a global level But economic growth looks underpinned, hence we would expect continued earnings growth Valuations look better in Europe, Japan and Asia versus the US on most valuation measures Europe is our biggest overweight, we are more optimistic than consensus on the growth outlook We have a clear preference for economically sensitive stocks, defensive earnings/bond proxies are overvalued in our view Signs of structural change in Japan interest us, though identifying attractive companies fulfilling our criteria is proving more difficult Source; Invesco as at June Opinions are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. 17

18 Invesco Global Equity Income Fund Current sector positioning We see economically sensitive sectors looking better value than defensives or bond proxies We are cautious on utilities and technology stocks We like financials and industrials, particularly in Europe We have neutralised our long standing underweight in the energy Remain focused on companies that fulfil our quality criteria Source; Invesco as at June

19 Capital re-build presents the opportunity for stronger European banks to grow dividends European Banking sector*: capital deficit turning to a surplus, E ( bn) European Banks dividend yield vs. the market 5.5% % 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% E 2015E 2016E 6 2.0% E 2016E B3 Capital Surplus/(deficit) (EUR bn, LHS) B3 CET1 * Europe Dividend Yield Banks Dividend Yield (%, RHS) Source: Citi Research as at 14 January Capital Surplus/(deficit) is before E dividends. Calculations assume minimum mortgage risk-weights of 15% with a +50% surcharge on internal model-based market risk RWAs. Target B3 CET 1 ratio is calculated by applying a B3 fully loaded ratio of between 10%-14.5% to each bank (based on Citi 2016E target forecasts). Each bank s corresponding deficit/surplus has been calculated and cumulatively added to generate a sector deficit/surplus. For illustrative purposes only. *Stocks included: Banco Santander, BBVA, BNP Paribas, Bank of Ireland, Crédit Agricole, Natixis, Société Générale, Banco BPI, Banco Popolare, Banco Popular, Bankinter, Banco de Sabadell, BP Milano, CaixaBank, Commerzbank, Erste Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, KBC, Mediobanca, Monte Dei Paschi, Piraeus Bank, UBI Banca, Unicredit, Credit Suisse, HSBC, ING, Lloyds Banking Group, Standard Chartered, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Raiffeisen Bank International, RBS, Danske Bank, DNB, UBS, Nordea, SE Banken AB, SHB, Swedbank. 2014E to 2016E based on Citi Research estimates. Right-hand chart: UBS European Equity Strategy as at 29 August E-2016E are based on UBS estimates. Data is based on UBS European coverage universe which consists of c.600 companies with total market cap of 7.5trn. UBS European banks universe consists of c.40 companies with a market cap of c. 900bn. *B3 CET 1 = Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 ratio. 19

20 Globally, cyclicals looking cheap relative to defensives Book value ratio of economically cyclical sectors versus defensives Jan 80 Jan 85 Jan 90 Jan 95 Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 10 Jan 15 Source: Invesco and Datastream as at 7 May Data shows price/book value ratio between four cyclical sectors (oil, industrials, basic materials, consumer discretionary) against four defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples, pharmaceuticals, telecoms). 20

21 Energy Understandably unloved at present Low levels of leverage on corporate balance sheets Renewed management focus on shareholder returns Significant capex and opex reductions sow seeds for rising prices and better profitability in 2016 and Dividends still secure in 2015 even at US$60 oil Integrated oils relative to all other large cap stocks 1 Relative price to book ratios, 1950 to May Parity Year Source: Empirical Research Partners Analysis as at 7 May Capitalisation-weighted data. 21

22 Depressed earnings and valuation Stock example: Aircraft manufacturer Historic and projected aircraft deliveries & P&L expensed R&D ( mn) 3, ,500 2,000 1,500 1, E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Leading manufacturer of commercial planes. Also produces military equipment Strong backlog order book Current profitability and cash generation impacted by high R&D costs and investment Net cash on balance sheet Should lead to enhanced cash returns 2016 onwards. Current yield 2.2% P&L Expensed R&D ( mn) Deliveries (RHS) Source: Datastream, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research as at April For illustrative purposes only. 22

23 Depressed sentiment and valuation Example: What happens in Vegas, happens in Macau? American casino and resort operating Co. Share price, USD Leading global casino operator 90 Strong position in structural growth markets in Asia 80 Chinese anti corruption drive provides long term buying opportunity 70 Valued on 15x 2016 earnings, 4% yield Entry point December Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Recent news February 2015: Tycoon linked to Macau casino laundering executed by China March 2015: Fight against graft targets Macau casinos Source: Chart: Bloomberg as at 31 March Recent news bullet points sourced from newsletters and Chinese daily newspapers published between 10 February and 27 March For illustrative purposes only. 23

24 Invesco Global Equity Income Fund We do not chase the highest yields, we seek quality income Active sector weights vs. MSCI World index sector yields (%) Energy Materials Industrials Cons. Disc. Cons. Staples Health Care Financials IT Telecoms Utilities Invesco Global Equity Income Fund active sector weights MSCI World index sector yields Source: Invesco as at 31 March Portfolio weightings are subject to change without notice. 24

25 Invesco Global Equity Income Fund Top ten holdings Stocks Portfolio weight (%) Dividend yield 1 (%) 3 year dividend CAGR 2 (%) Novartis BT Legal & General Pfizer Reed Elsevier Amgen United Technologies British American Tobacco Roche Airbus MSCI World index Source: Invesco & Bloomberg as at 31 March Last 12 month dividend yield. As at 6 May Based on Bloomberg projected compound annual growth rate of dividend over three years. As at 6 May Holdings may change without notice. This is no financial advice and no recommendation to buy/hold/sell these securities. 25

26 Invesco Global Equity Income Fund Regional weightings Portfolio breakdown (%) North America Europe ex. UK United Kingdom Japan Pacific Rim* Australasia Invesco Global Equity Income Fund MSCI World Index Source: Invesco as at 31 March *Pacific Rim = Hong Kong and Singapore. Holdings may change without notice. 26

27 Shorter-term concerns ignore the potential for recovery and attractive valuations in Europe Cyclically adjusted PEs for different geographies Current cyclically adjusted PE (x) LT Median (x) (Discount)/Premium US % Asia Pacific exc Japan AC % Europe % Switzerland % UK % EMU % Germany % France % Spain % Italy % Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Source: JP Morgan Cazenove, Thomson Datastream as at 8 April Underlying data started from 31 January 1970 for MSCI Europe, MSCI US, MSCI UK, MSCI Germany and MSCI Switzerland. 2 Underlying data started from 30 September MSCI index. 3 Underlying data started from 31 January Thomson Datastream index. 4 Underlying data started from 31 January MSCI index. 5 Underlying data started from 29 April MSCI index. 6 Index captures large and mid cap representation across 4 of 5 Developed Markets countries excluding Japan and 8 Emerging Markets countries in the Asia Pacific region. Underlying data started from 30 November MSCI index. Current cyclically adjusted PE (x) as at 8 April All cyclically adjusted P/E data based on 10 year average nominal earnings. 27

28 Portfolio performance

29 Invesco Global Equity Income Fund Net performance Calendar year returns USD (%) Invesco Global Equity Income Fund A Acc. USD MSCI World index GIF OS Global Equity Income Sector - Quartile Annualised returns USD (%)* YTD 1 year 3 years Since managed** Invesco Global Equity Income Fund A Acc. USD MSCI World index GIF OS Global Equity Income Sector - Quartile Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Source: Morningstar 2015 as at 31 March *Periods greater than one year are annualized. Fund and sector performance figures are shown for the A share class in USD on a mid-to-mid basis, inclusive of gross reinvested income and net of ongoing charges and portfolio transaction costs. The figures do not reflect the entry charge paid by individual investors. Benchmark source: Invesco, net return, in USD. **Invesco has managed the fund since 5 July

30 Invesco Global Equity Income Fund An attractive risk-return profile Risk versus return (%) 3 years to 31 March Lower risk Higher return Higher risk Higher return Annualised return Invesco Global Equity Income Fund Global Equity Income sector MSCI World index 7 6 Lower risk Lower return Higher risk Lower return Annualised risk Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Source: Morningstar 2015 as at 31 March Performance figures are provided for the A share class of the Invesco Global Equity Income Fund and are shown in USD on a mid-to-mid basis, inclusive of net reinvested income and net of ongoing charges and portfolio transaction costs. The figures do not reflect the entry charge paid by individual investors. 30

31 Invesco Global Equity Income Fund Underlying portfolio characteristics Characteristic Portfolio MSCI World index Dividend Yield 3.3% 2.4% Price to Earnings 19.5x 19.8x Free Cashflow Yield 8.5% 4.4% Return on Equity 11.2% 11.1% Source: Bloomberg as at 31 May Characteristics are trailing 12 month figures. 31

32 Invesco Global Equity Income strategy Summary An unconstrained approach Means that we seek the best quality income ideas wherever they may be Regional income expertise Brings together our best quality income ideas globally Detailed fundamental analysis Is valuation-led and identifies companies demonstrating quality income characteristics Conviction-led portfolio construction Means that we only include our best ideas and size our positions accordingly Independent risk management Is rigorous and ensures adherence to investment philosophy, process and risk profile For illustrative purposes only. 32

33 Appendix

34 A consistent investment approach Portfolio Style Tilt Dec Portfolio Style Tilt Sep Source: Style Research as at 31 December

35 Outlook for global equities Stock market performance Earnings revisions 120 Japan and Europe outperforming in Strong dollar hurting US earnings revisions Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr Dec 12 Jul 13 Feb 14 Sep 14 Apr 15 S&P500 Euro Stoxx 50 FTSE 100 Nikkei 225 EM Japan UK US Europe-ex-UK Source: LHC: Bloomberg as at 27 April All data shown in US$. 1 January 2014 = 100. RHC: Barclays 7 April EM = Emerging Markets. 35

36 Outlook for global equities Markets are rising due to rerating, not earnings growth Markets are not looking cheap Contribution to YTD total returns (%pt) MSCI Japan EPS Change Dividends MSCI AC Asia ex Japan PE Re-rating MSCI UK Total contribution of EPS Change, PE Re-rating & Dividends USA UK Japan APxJ EM The World +/-1 Stdev. High/low points Current Median Source: LHC: Morgan Stanley 26 April Returns in local currency from 1 January 2015 to 26 April Source: RHC: Datastream, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research as at 1 April EM = Emerging Markets. 36

37 Outlook for global equities Wide dispersion in sector returns over the last 12 months Global sector returns last 12 months % Source: Bloomberg as at 27 April 2015 in US$. Global sectors are MSCI World sectors. 37

38 Important information This marketing document is exclusively for use by Professional Clients and Financial Advisers in Continental Europe and Qualified Investors in Switzerland. Data as at , unless otherwise stated. This document is not for consumer use, please do not redistribute. It is not subject to German regulatory requirements that ensure impartiality of financial analysis. Therefore, the prohibition of trading before the release of financial analysis does not apply. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Where Invesco has expressed views and opinions, these may change and are not to be construed as investment advice. The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange-rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested. For more information on our funds, please refer to the most up to date relevant fund and share class-specific Key Investor Information Documents, the latest Annual or Interim Reports and the latest Prospectus, and constituent documents. This information is available using the contact details of the issuer and is without charge. Further information on our products is available using the contact details shown. Whilst great care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate, no responsibility can be accepted for any errors, mistakes or omissions or for any action taken in reliance thereon. This marketing document is not an invitation to subscribe for shares in the fund and is by way of information only, it should not be considered financial advice. The performance data shown does not take account of the commissions and costs incurred on the issue and redemption of units. Any reference to a ranking, a rating or an award provides no guarantee for future performance results and is not constant over time. Persons interested in acquiring the fund should inform themselves as to (i) the legal requirements in the countries of their nationality, residence, ordinary residence or domicile; (ii) any foreign exchange controls and (iii) any relevant tax consequences. As with all investments, there are associated risks. This document is by way of information only. Asset management services are provided by Invesco in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulations. The fund is available only in jurisdictions where its promotion and sale is permitted. Not all share classes of this fund may be available for public sale in all jurisdictions and not all share classes are the same nor do they necessarily suit every investor. Fee structure and minimum investment levels may vary dependent on share class chosen. Please check the most recent version of the fund prospectus in relation to the criteria for the individual share classes and contact your local Invesco office for full details of the fund registration status in your jurisdiction. Please be advised that the information provided in this document is referring to Class A (accumulation - USD) exclusively. This fund is domiciled in Luxembourg. Denmark: The fund is not registered for public distribution in this jurisdiction. This document is provided only to Professional Clients and must not be redistributed to retail clients. Germany, Austria and Switzerland: This document is issued in Germany by Invesco Asset Management Deutschland GmbH regulated by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. This document is issued in Austria by Invesco Asset Management Österreich GmbH and in Switzerland by Invesco Asset Management (Schweiz) AG. Subscriptions of shares are only accepted on the basis of the most up to date legal offering documents. The legal offering documents (fund & share class specific Key Investor Information Document, prospectus, annual & semi-annual reports, articles and trustee deed) are available free of charge at our website and in hardcopy and local language from the issuers: Invesco Asset Management Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, D Frankfurt am Main, Invesco Asset Management Österreich GmbH, Rotenturmstrasse 16-18, A-1010 Wien, and Invesco Asset Management (Schweiz) AG, Talacker 34, CH-8001 Zurich, who acts as a representative for the funds distributed in Switzerland. Paying agent for the fund distributed in Switzerland: BNP PARIBAS SECURITIES SERVICES, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, CH-8002 Zürich. This fund is domiciled in Luxembourg. CE1211/