The Italian Asset Management market
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- Clemence Hodges
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1 key figures Research Department
2 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates The recent mkt recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
3 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates The recent mkt recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
4 The Italian AM market (Jan 2014:Dec 2014) AuM, net flows & performance, bn. 4
5 Net flows (monthly data) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun bn 2012 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2013 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2014 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthly data. Source: Assogestioni. 5
6 Product breakdown IV III IV II 2014 I Open end Funds % 4% 44 3% I II III Closed end Funds Retail Mandates (discretionary portfolios) % % Institutional Mandates IV +9.1 IV +2.1 III III I II I II 6
7 Long term trend bn, yearly data. Source: Assogestioni. 7
8 AuM (Dec 2014) Top 15 Groups Net flows % 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 24% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% GENERALI EURIZON CAPITAL BANCA FIDEURAM PIONEER INVESTMENTS POSTE ITALIANE ANIMA HOLDING ALLIANZ UBI BANCA MEDIOLANUM AMUNDI BANCO POPOLARE AZIMUT BNP PARIBAS AXA ARCA FRANKLIN TEMPLETON bn 2% 3% 4% 4% 8% % 73% 82% Funds 26% 15% Mand. x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 8
9 Open-end funds: domicile breakdown Dec Dec % 38% % Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign Dec % 41% 42% 20 30% I 2014 II 2014 III 2014 IV 0 AuM & net flows, bn. 9
10 EURIZON CAPITAL BANCA FIDEURAM PIONEER INVESTMENTS GENERALI ANIMA HOLDING MEDIOLANUM FRANKLIN TEMPLETON AZIMUT ARCA JPMORGAN UBI BANCA INVESCO SCHRODERS PICTET AMUNDI BANCO POPOLARE bn Top 15 Groups (open-end funds only) 2% 3% 4% 6% 6% 9% 11% 15% 5% 52% 69% 80% Domestic AuM (Dec 2014) Net flows % 10% 20% 30% 40% R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + +61% % 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% Net sales as % AuM +40% +41% +46%
11 Asset Class breakdown TOTAL 21% 6% 4% 44% 23% DOMESTIC 9% 4% 44% 35% 207 bn 32% R TRIP/OFFSHORE 21% 5% 43% 25% 248 bn 38% FOREIGN 34% 3% 47% 9% 197 bn 30% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Equity Balanced Money Market Bond Flexible Hedge December
12 AuM (Dec 2014) Equity & balanced funds Net flows % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% ITALY EURO AREA 4% 4% EUROPE 21% AMERICA 18% PACIFIC AREA 7% EMERGING MKTS 12% SPECIAL. COUNTRY 6% GLOBAL 15% SPECIAL. SECTOR OTHER 4% 9% 82% BALANCED bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 12
13 Money mkt, Bond, Flex & Hedge funds AuM (Dec 2014) Net flows % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% MM FUNDS ITALY 3% EURO GOV. SHORT T. 9% EURO GOV. M/L TERM 13% EURO CORPORATE / HY 11% DOLLAR AREA 3% GLOBAL 7% EM MIXED 5% 11% +65% SPECIALIZED 19% FLEX (BOND) 19% FLEX +42 HEDGE bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 13
14 Net & gross flows Net ( bn) Gross ( bn) Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 50% 40% 30% 20% Gross Sales Gross Redemptions Net Sales Funds w/net Sales>0 14
15 The blockbuster effect : top quartile funds take all Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Net flows, bn. I II III IV Top 1% New Stories 15
16 New stories: they sell well... but how long? Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Curr. +1Q +2Q +3Q Newly launched funds ( new stories ): net flows in current & following 3 quarters. bn. 16
17 New stories tag cloud Year New funds INDEX CONVERTIBLE EMERGING SELECTION COUPON EQUITY MONEY CONVERTIBLE COUPON CASH EQUITY CEDOLA FORMULA MONEY BOND ETF CORPORATE CASH STRUCTURED PROTETTO BREVE MONET 20 ASIA LIQUID SELECTION EMERGING PROTETTO SELECTION CEDOLA BOND 20 BREVE CONVERTIBLE COUPON FORMULA ETF MONET CORPORATE INDEX STRUCTURED ASIA EQUITY LIQUID CASH CORPORATE 20 CEDOLA EMERGING MONET FORMULA BOND SELECTION STRUCTURED EQUITY LIQUID MONEY INDEX BREVE ASIA ETF PROTETTO BOND 20 CONVERTIBLE STRUCTURED CORPORATE ETF BREVE CASH MONET PROTETTO MONEY CEDOLA ASIACOUPON FORMULA LIQUID EMERGING INDEX 17
18 Mandates: AuM & Net Sales trends AuM (Dec 2014) Net flows % 10% 20% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% DISCRETIONARY MANDATES (GPF) 3% DISCRETIONARY MANDATES (GPM) 10% PENSION PLANS 9% INSURANCE PRODUCTS (TRADITIONAL) % INSURANCE PRODUCTS (UNIT & INDEX L ED) 8% OTHER 9% bn Foreign Co. Domestic Co. x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 18
19 Top 15 Groups (mandates only) AuM (Dec 2014) Net flows % 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% GENERALI EURIZON CAPITAL BANCA FIDEURAM POSTE ITALIANE PIONEER INVESTMENTS ALLIANZ AXA UBI BANCA BANCO POPOLARE AMUNDI ANIMA HOLDING CREDIT SUISSE CREDITO EMILIANO BNP PARIBAS STATE STREET MONTEPASCHI bn 1% 2% 3% 3% 5% 6% % 138 7% 77% 87% 92% Retail 15% Instit. x%: Mkt share + +34% Net sales as % AuM 19
20 The market for Institutional Mandates Insurance products Managed by ManCos Pension funds As is... (2014 Q3) % 183 As is... (2014 Q3) 79%... and as could become: Household portfolio: share of insurance products & pension funds (2014Q3) IT FRA GER UK USA 18.5% 33.5% 30.9% 57.4% 33.4% Source: ANIA, Covip, Adepp, Assogestioni, Eurostat, OECD. 20
21 Despite the economic crisis which is still affecting heavely our country, and despite the fall in the household saving rate, net flows into funds and mandates are rebounding. Why? Some tentative explanations that can be drawn looking at the general features of the market (1), savers (2 & 3), distributors (banks, 4 & 5) and management companies (6).
22 1. A pro-cyclical market MSCI WORLD (Loc) bn, yearly data. Source: Assogestioni, MSCI. 22
23 2. Wealth is concentrated top tier investors hold most of the money pot (italian funds, 2013) Average investment Median investment Average Median x 2.5 Quartile % of assets Limit ( ) 1,4 6,9 17,3 74, % of shareholders control 75% of assets 75% of shareholders invest less than 27k Italian funds. Source: Assogestioni 23
24 3. Bank deposits pay low interests Dec Interest rates on bank deposits, households. Source: Bank of Italy. 24
25 4. Banks are becoming less dependent on funding from retail Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Retail Bank Bonds Domestic and Round Trip Funds Foreign Funds Quarterly flows, bn. Source: Assogestioni, Bank of Italy. 25
26 5. Decrease in net interest margin Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 6 Domestic and Round Trip Funds (l.) Foreign Funds (l.) Net interest margin (Top 5 Banking Groups) (r.) bn. Source: Assogestioni, bank balance sheets (Top 5 groups). 26
27 6. The success of funds with high margins (target-date funds) MM FUNDS AuM (Dec 2014) Net flows % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% ITALY 3% EURO GOV. SHORT T. 9% EURO GOV. M/L TERM 13% EURO CORPORATE / HY 11% DOLLAR AREA 3% GLOBAL 7% EM MIXED 5% 11% +65% SPECIALIZED 19% FLEX (BOND) 19% FLEX +42 HEDGE bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 27
28 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates The recent mkt recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
29 Net Assets by fund domicile 3, % +10% 11, % +9% +13% 1,582 +9% 1,571 +3% +1% 1, % +16% 1, % +9% 72% Ucits Non Ucits : 14 M12 Growth 13 rate 90% Spezialf. 25% MMFs % +20% % +10% Germany 14% France 14% UK 12% Switzerland 4% Italy 2% Luxembourg 28% Ireland 15% Europe 100% 46% 43% 2014 December bn. Source: Efama, AFG, BVI. 29
30 Net Assets by fund domicile Long-term growth Ireland Luxembourg UK France Germany Italy Q3 Index values. Source: Efama. 30
31 Net sales by fund domicile Italy 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% France 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Germany 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 14% 10% I II 2014 III II +5.4% +28 IV I III II I IV III % 6% % UK 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Luxembourg 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Europe 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% I IIIII II III III II IV I I IV % % Net sales as a % of AuM. Yearly data in bn. Source: Efama, BVI. 31
32 Net sales by fund domicile & asset class Italy 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% France 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Germany 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 4% 1% 1% 8% % II III I III IV I II 4.5% I IV III II % 6% 4% +1% 7% UK 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Luxembourg 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Europe 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% III II 2014 IV I III 2013 IV III III II I 1% 3% 4% 3% % '10 2% '09 3% 4% 2% Equity+Balanced +Flexible Bonds+MM Others+Non Ucits Net sales as a % of AuM. Source: Efama, Assogestioni, BVI. 32
33 Net Assets by fund group domicile 3,007 59% 11,057 1,827 +5% +3% 2, % +8% Exp 10% 2, % +15% Exp > 90% % +12% 1,600 44% Domestic Funds Ucits Domestic Funds Non Ucits Luxembourg Funds Irish Funds % +12% 14 :Q3 Growth rate 13 France 13% Germany 24% UK 44% Switzerland 51% Italy 49% Luxembourg Ireland Europe 2014Q3. bn. Foreign (Round-trip) share in %. Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI & IFIA data. 33
34 Net sales: fund domicile vs. fund group domicile Italy 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% France 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Germany 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% 10% 9% I II 14% 2014 IV III III I II IV III I II % % 7% 6% +7% UK 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Luxembourg 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% Europe 5% 3% 1% +1% +3% +5% III IV II I IV III III II I II I +10% +13% % Net sales as a % of AuM. Fund domicile (blue), fund group domicile (black). Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI, IFIA & BVI data. 34
35 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates The recent mkt recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
36 Household saving rates in Europe 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% Q3 0% EU avg Italy Germany France UK Gross household saving rates. Source: Eurostat. 36
37 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% 1.0% consumption 0.5% 0.0% 16% 14% 12% 13.7% Italy 12.0% -0.5% 10% 8% -1.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% Q3 income 2008Q4:2014Q3. Source: Eurostat. 37
38 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% consumption 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% income 18% 17.0% 16% Germany 16.4% 14% 12% 10% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 14.7% France % 2014 Q3 2008Q4:2014Q3. Source: Eurostat. 38
39 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% 1.0% consumption 0.5% 0.0% 8% 6% UK 8.2% -0.5% 4% 5.4% 2.2% -1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% income 2% Q1 2008Q4:2014Q1. Source: Eurostat. 39
40 Household financial portfolio breakdown Italy Total Asset bn Currency & deposits Total Bonds Issued by banks Total Stocks Listed Investment funds Pension funds & life pr , , , , , , Q3 4, France 4, n.a Germany 5, n.a UK 7, n.a USA 53, n.a 33.1 n.a %. Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. High level of direct investment (~ 40%) Significant amounts of bank issued bonds (7.5%) Negligible level of listed shares. High level of unlisted ones. Funds: rise until 1999 (18%) then down, then again up. Pensions/life product: up but still too modest. 40
41 Managed products in household portfolios Investment funds Pension funds & life products 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% abnormally high? 60% 50% 40% 30% 8% 6% too low? 20% 4% 10% 2% 0% Q Q3 0% Italy France Germany United Kingdom USA Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. 41
42 Public Pensions (1st pillar) Cost (% GDP) Future substitution rates Old-age pensions Today 1 ante L 243/ ante DL 78/ % 71 85% 70 80% 75% 69 70% 65% 68 60% 67 55% 50% 66 45% 3 ante DL 98/ ante DL 201/ % Age Private sector employee Self employed Source: Ragioneria Generale dello Stato. 42
43 Private sector employees: failure of automatic enrolment 13.7m 341K 13.5m 312K Opt-Out 301K 12.4m 266K 4% 226K 7% 292K 7% 1.2m 16% 4% Not Enrolled 84% 15% 6% 17% 68% 32% Enrolled 4.4m Dec Dec 2013 New members: Automatic Enrolment Voluntary Enrolment Source: est. based on Covip data. 43
44 Private pension plans at a glance (2nd & 3rd pillar) Working pop. Membership Membership (,000) (est.) rate rate Member breakdown 6,204 22,420 28% 21% Private sector employees 4,356 13,543 32% 26% Public sector employees 160 3,335 5% 4% Self employed 1,688 5,542 30% 19% 2013 Members Assets (,000) % '13 % 5y % ( m) % GDP Vehicle breakdown 6, % +6% +28% 116, % Contractual p.f. 1,951 31% 1% 5% 34,504 Open p.f % +8% +24% 11,990 Ind. Insurance Plans (PIP) 2,639 42% +14% +92% 19,513 Ante 1993 p.f. ('pre existing') % 1% 3% 50,376 Source: Covip, Istat, RGS. 44
45 key figures Research Department
The Italian Asset Management market
key figures 23 April 2014 Research Department 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates The recent mkt recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales
The Italian Asset Management market
key figures Research Department 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets
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