March Investment policy. CH, DE, AT, IT, FR, FL and LU edition

Transcription

1 March 2015 Investment policy CH, DE, AT, IT, FR, FL and LU edition

2 Further expansion of the equity exposure in Europe and the emerging countries. The Swisscanto equities barometer 0 neutral allocation +/- = over/underweight ++/ strong over/underweight Weighting of asset classes (Variance to the benchmark) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% Cash Bonds Equity Real Estate Commodities Other Source: Swisscanto institutional portfolio The overweight in equities is again expanded slightly by means of an increase in European securities and the selective acquisition of equities from emerging countries. By contrast, the overweight in Swiss real estate is reduced slightly. The European Central Bank (ECB) is about to start its programme of quantitative easing (QE). Diagram 1 shows the ECB's planned balance sheet expansion measures in the international context. The race for the largest balance sheet total is long and still not over, but the ECB is well on the way to catching up, if not overtaking. The ECB's struggle against attractive interest rates on bonds is likely once again to force investors into riskier alternatives. The positive momentum is another factor in favour of European equities. The economic recovery and the lower oil price are also having a supportive effect and, in the medium term, should lead to higher earnings growth. These are the reasons why European equities are again somewhat more heavily overweighted; the allocation is increased by one per cent. The bulk of the equity overweight is concentrated on European equities. Diagram 1: The ECB aims to take the lead in the balance sheet expansion race 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 Balance sheet totals in USD millions ECB (left scale) Fed (left scale) BoE (right scale) ECB forecast purchasing programme EUR 60 billion per month until 09/2016 (Assuming constant exchange rate) , , , , , , , ,000 Source: Datastream, Swisscanto model 0 2

3 Due to the attractive relative valuation and the supportive measures of current monetary policy, we consider the likelihood that European equities will outperform the global equity market as very high. Diagram 2: European equities are valued favourably compared to other markets The equity exposure in selected emerging markets is similarly expanded. We believe that it will be worthwhile to proceed selectively and to expand the equity exposure in India, Indonesia, Korea and Taiwan by focusing on key areas. Korean equities are cheap and the Indian economy is growing very rapidly due to the Mohdi government's successful structural reforms and infrastructure expansion. World -2% 12% 6% USA 3% Europe ex UK and CH UK Switzerland Japan Asia EMMA -6% 11% 4% -5% 13% 10% 14% -8% 12% 14% The overweight in Swiss real estate is reduced slightly. We are taking profits on real estate funds whose premiums have risen sharply. In addition, commercial real estate near the border is feeling the appreciation of the Swiss franc. Since Swiss confederation bonds are even more overvalued, however, we still consider an overweight against bonds as appropriate. -15% Trend model IBES earnings -25% Source: Datastream, Swisscanto model Diagram 2 shows the relative valuation of selected equity markets in a cross-sectional comparison. Diagram 3 shows the valuation of European equities over time. Within the European equity markets, the peripheral markets in particular are attractively valued when measured in trend earnings. Diagram 3: European equities are slightly undervalued MSCI Europa ex CH and UK (right scale logarithmised) Fair value per trend earnings (right scale logarithmised) 10,000 5,000 3,500 2,500 1, , Estimated under/over valuation in % (left scale) Source: Datastream, Swisscanto model 3

4 Investment policy for March 2015 Currency strategy The exchange rate strategy remains unchanged. We believe that the Swiss franc is still highly overvalued and consider an underweight as appropriate. The greenback could again benefit from a flare-up of risk aversion, but also from the approaching first interest rate increase. The euro's current weak phase is not likely to be over any time soon, and does not adequately reflect the latest economic slowdown and the loose monetary policy stimulus measures triggered as a result. We are maintaining a US dollar long position against the euro. We are maintaining a long position in both the Norwegian krone and in the Swedish krona. Sweden has good fundamentals similar to Norway. Both currencies provide an interest rate advantage and are undervalued against the Swiss franc. The Norwegian krone also provides protection against a possible recovery in the crude oil price. Within the bonds strategy Overall, the credit strategy's conservative alignment is maintained. We tend to believe that taking risks in the equity sector will be much more worthwhile than in the fixed income sector. For Switzerland and Japan, the interest rate risk against the benchmark is still being kept shorter. In Canada, Australia and in the euro zone, a slightly longer duration is taken. The high-yield sector is exhibiting an increasingly unattractive valuation compared to long-term averages. Consequently, the risks within the portfolio are being kept relatively low across all debtors. We are watching the low trading positions in market makers with major concern, since liquidity could completely dry up in the event of sharply rising interest rates, and positions could only be moved by accepting larger bid-ask spreads. Bonds from emerging markets remain neutrally weighted. Yield premiums are near to the long-term average, so a neutral weighting seems reasonable. Inflation-protected bonds remain overweighted. 4

5 Within the equity strategy European equities are more heavily overweighted than before due to the attractive valuation and the imminent quantitative easing. Swiss equities remain neutrally weighted. North American equities are underweighted due to the relatively high valuation and the beginning normalisation of monetary policy. Japanese equities remain fractionally underweighted. Equities from within the Asian and Pacific area (excluding Japan) remain heavily underweighted. Australia's high dependence on raw materials in particular presents a case for a cautious approach. Emerging market equities are now overweighted. However, the overweight is implemented with a focus on the markets of India, Indonesia, Korea and Taiwan. The sectors of media, pharma & biotech, financial services (excluding real estate) and IT (software, hardware and semiconductors) and food and staples retail are overweighted. Real estate, wholesale and retail trade, as well as household products and personal care products and telecoms companies remain underweighted. The overweight in value stocks is increased slightly. The overweight in small caps is neutralised completely. Within the multi-asset strategy Bonds remain heavily underweighted due to the high valuation. "Confederation bonds", "Treasuries" and "Federal Bonds" are very expensive; the interest on Confederation bonds is even negative. High-yield bonds are underweighted. We are implementing a lower credit risk compared to the benchmark. The more conservative credit strategy is also reflected in the components used. The neutral weighting of emerging market bonds is maintained. Inflation-protected bonds remain overweighted. The continued cheap valuations of European stock markets, measured in trend earnings, and the high price competitiveness due to the weak euro mean that this market is heavily overweighted once more. Swiss equities remain neutrally weighted. Equities from within the Asian-Pacific area (excluding Japan) are underweighted in favour of Japanese equities. Equities from emerging countries are now overweighted. However, this is done by prioritising India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Korea. The speculative positions in oil are decreased significantly. Since many oil producers can no longer cover their costs, the current oil price is unlikely to represent any sort of medium-term equilibrium. On the other hand, oil futures curves are now inverse so that unfortunately a negative rolling return has to be endured. Commodities investments remain neutrally weighted. The overweight in Swiss real estate is reduced slightly. The significant overweight in hedge funds also remains in place. Within the "other alternative investments" allocation, 2 per cent has been invested in insurance-linked bonds (securitised insurance) and 1 per cent in gold. 5

6 Table 1: Swisscanto investment policy taking the example of a portfolio fund (Portfolio Fund Balanced) Current strategy March 2015 Benchmark Over-/underweight current strategy/ benchmark Previous strategy February 2015 Cash Cash CHF 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% Fixed income Bonds CHF 8.0% 14.0% 6.0% 8.0% Investments Foreign currencies 33.0% 33.0% investment grade hedged High Yield hedged 2.5% 41.0% 2.0% 2.5% grade Emerging hedg. Markets 2.5% 2.5% Inflation-linked 1.0% 1.0% Convertibles 0.0% 0.0% Total 47.0% 55.0% 8.0% 47.0% Equities Switzerland 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 11.0% International 39.0% 37.0% Europe ex Switzerland 7.8% 6.8% United Kingdom 2.2% 25.0% 4.0% 2.2% North America 15.6% 15.6% Japan 3.3% 3.3% Asia Pacific ex Japan 0.1% 0.1% Emerging Markets 10.0% 9.0% 1.0% 9.0% Listed Private Equity 0.0% 0.0% Total 50.0% 45.0% 5.0% 48.0% Other Swiss real estate 0.0% 1.0% investments Intern. real estate 0.0% 0.0% Hedge Funds 0.0% 0.0% Commodities 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% Precious metals 1.0% 1.0% Insurance-linked bonds 1.0% 1.0% Volatility strategies 0.0% 0.0% Currency strategies 0.0% 0.0% Total 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Currency overlay Note: The benchmark was adjusted as per CHF 4%, EUR 1%, NOK +1%, SEK +1%, USD +3% 30/09/

7 Table 2: The Swisscanto investment policy taking the example of an institutional portfolio Current Strategy March 2015 Benchmark Over-/underweight current strategy/ benchmark Previous Strategy February 2015 Cash Cash CHF 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% Bonds Bonds CHF 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% Foreign currencies Investment grade hedged 17.0% 20.0% 3.0% 17.0% High Yield hedged 4.0% 5.0% 1.0% 4.0% Emerging Markets 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% Inflation Linked 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% Total 28.0% 35.0% 7.0% 28.0% Convertibles 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity Switzerland 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 8.0% International 27.0% 22.0% 5.0% 25.0% Europe ex UK, ex CH 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% United Kingdom 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% North America 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% Japan 2.5% 1.5% 1.0% 2.5% Asia Pacific ex Japan 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% Emerging Markets 7.0% 6.0% 1.0% 6.0% Listed Private Equity 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total 35.0% 30.0% 5.0% 33.0% Real Estate Switzerland 19.0% 17.0% 2.0% 20.0% International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total 19.0% 17.0% 2.0% 20.0% Hedge Funds Diversified 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 8.0% Commodities 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% Others (1% Gold, 2% ILS) 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% Currency overlay CHF 4%, EUR 1%, NOK +1%, SEK +1%, USD +3% Key figures: ex-ante tracking error: 127 bp, ex-ante volatility benchmark: 3.42%, ex-ante volatility strategy 4.42% (all figures are annualised; calculated with MSCI RiskManager/RiskServer). 7

8 Table 3: The Swisscanto investment policy taking the example of a private investor s portfolio (Balanced Strategy) Current Strategy March 2015 Benchmark Over-/underweight current strategy/ benchmark Previous Strategy February 2015 Fixed income Cash CHF 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% investments Bonds CHF 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% Foreign currencies Investment grade hedged 14.0% 14.0% High Yield hedged 0.0% 19.0% 4.0% 0.0% Emerging Markets 0.0% 0.0% Inflation Linked 1.0% 1.0% Convertible bonds 0.0% 0.0% Total 19.0% 25.0% 6.0% 19.0% Equities Switzerland 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% International 35.0% 33.0% Europe ex CH 7.0% 6.0% United Kingdom 2.0% 22.0% 4.0% 2.0% North America 14.0% 14.0% Japan 3.0% 3.0% Asia Pacific ex Japan 0.0% 0.0% Emerging Markets 9.0% 8.0% 1.0% 8.0% Listed Private Equity 0.0% 0.0% Total 45.0% 40.0% 5.0% 43.0% Other Swiss real estate 10.0% 12.0% investments Internat. real estate 3.0% 3.0% Hedge Funds 15.0% 15.0% Commodities 5.0% 35.0% 1.0% 5.0% Precious metals 1.0% 1.0% Insurance-linked bonds 2.0% 2.0% Volatility strategies 0.0% 0.0% Currency strategies 0.0% 0.0% Total 36.0% 35.0% 1.0% 38.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Key figures: ex-ante tracking error: 187 bp, ex-ante volatility benchmark: 2.88%, ex-ante volatility strategy: 4.37% (all figures are annualised; calculated with MSCI RiskManager/RiskServer). 8

9 Your contact Thomas Härter, Chief Strategist Phone , Swisscanto Asset Management Ltd., Europaallee 39, CH-8021 Zurich Zurich, 26 February 2015 Diagrams/Tables Source: Datastream Portrayals: Swisscanto Legal note This publication is intended for distribution in Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Italy, France, Liechtenstein and Luxembourg and is not addressed to investors in other countries. All the details published here serve solely for advertising purposes and do not constitute any investment advice or an offer. The solely binding basis for the purchase of Swisscanto funds shall be the respective published documents (fund contract, contractual conditions, prospectuses and/or key investor informations, and reports). The information contained in this document has been compiled by Swisscanto with the greatest care. The information and opinions come from reliable sources. Despite the professional procedure, Swisscanto cannot guarantee the correctness, completeness or topicality of the details. Swisscanto declines all liability for investments which are made on the basis of this document. Past performance is no indication of future performance and does not guarantee success in the future. Statements relating to the future express solely the assessment and business expectations, though different risks, uncertainties and other important factors may lead to the actual development and results differing clearly from expectations for the future. The opinions are those of the Fund Manager at the time of publication and possibly will not agree with his opinion at a later point in time. The opinions serve for the understanding of the investment process and are not intended as a recommendation for investment. Holdings and allocations can change. No guarantee can be assumed that the market forecasts will be achieved. The naming of individual securities shall not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell these securities. This is a publicity notification which does not satisfy all statutory requirements for the guarantee of impartiality of financial analyses and which is also not subject to the ban on trading before the publication of financial analyses. Additional information for investors in Italy The information contained herein is not to be made available to the public but to be used exclusively by Eligible Investors, pursuant to art. 34-ter, paragraph 1, lett. b) of Consob Regulation no as amended, who may use it for reference purposes only and shall not distribute and/or disclose it to any other third party. The management company shall not be held liable for any dissemination of the content of this document to the public (retail clients) or for any investment choices made on the basis of the information contained therein. 9