How Hedging Can Substantially Reduce Foreign Stock Currency Risk

Transcription

1 Possible losses from changes in currency exchange rates are a risk of investing unhedged in foreign stocks. While a stock may perform well on the London Stock Exchange, if the British pound declines against the U.S. dollar, your gain can disappear or become a loss. In addition, currency fluctuations are generally more extreme than stock market fluctuations. During the more than fifty years that Tweedy, Browne has been investing, the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index has declined on an annual basis more than 20% only four times, in the back-to-back bear market of 1973 and 1974, in the technology and telecommunications crash of 2002 and in the financial collapse of By contrast, the U.S. dollar/pound, U.S. dollar/deutsche mark and U.S. dollar/euro relationships have moved more than 20% on numerous occasions. There was a four-to-five-year period from when the U.S. dollar value of British, French, German and Dutch currency declined by 45% to 58%. In the 16-month period between November 8, 2007 and March 10, 2009, the U.S. dollar value of a British pound declined from $2.10 to $1.37, a 35% decline; in the seven-month period from April 22, 2008 to November 20, 2008, the U.S. dollar value of a euro declined from $1.59 to $1.24, a 22% decline. To recoup the 45% to 58% losses that a U.S. investor incurred by owning British, French, German and Dutch currency unhedged during the period, returns ranging between 72% to 122% were required. Similarly, in the period from April 22, 2008 to November 20, 2008, a return of 54% was required to recoup the 35% decline in the British pound, and a 28% increase was required to recoup the 22% decline in the U.S. dollar value of the euro. At Tweedy, Browne, we pick stocks; we do not pretend to understand currency valuations. We can read a company s balance sheet, but we cannot read a country s balance sheet. We count our wealth in U.S. dollars, and seek to avoid losses from non-u.s. currencies. As a result, in the Tweedy, Browne Global Value Fund and the Tweedy, Browne Value Fund, we have chosen to hedge the Funds perceived foreign currency exposure back into the U.S. dollar. Some investors may view exposure to foreign currency as another form of diversification and/or may have a strong opinion that the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken (over the near or long term) against one or more currencies which the Funds own through their holdings of shares of foreign companies. For those investors we offer two unhedged funds: the Tweedy, Browne Worldwide High Dividend Yield Value Fund and the Tweedy, Browne Global Value Fund II - Currency Unhedged. This is also consistent with the choices we offer to our separate account clients.

2 page 2 The Known Contractual Cost, or the Known Contractual Gain, from Hedging Non-U.S. Currencies Back into the U.S. Dollar In our discussions with clients, we have often been asked, What is the cost of currency hedging? Clients almost always assume that there is a cost, and almost never realize that there can be either a locked-in contractual cost or a locked-in contractual gain from hedging non-u.s. currency back into the U.S. dollar: It depends on whether U.S. interest rates are lower or higher than interest rates in the particular foreign country whose currency is being hedged. Leaving aside transaction costs to enter into currency hedging contracts, which tend to be minimal in the very liquid, global foreign exchange markets, the U.S. investor who enters into a hedging contract to sell forward the foreign currency of a country whose interest rates are lower than U.S. interest rates will receive a locked-in contractual gain a known gain from having entered into the currency hedging contract. Conversely, the U.S. investor who enters into a hedging contract to sell forward the foreign currency of a country whose interest rates are higher than U.S. interest rates will have a locked-in contractual loss a known cost from having entered into the currency hedging contract. For example, if one-year interest rates are 1% in Japan and 5% in the U.S., the locked-in gain from entering into a one-year currency hedging contract would be the difference between the two interest rates, a gain of 4%. If one-year interest rates were 1% in the United States and 4% in Britain, the locked-in cost from entering into a one-year currency hedging contract would be the difference between the two interest rates, a cost of 3%. In a typical transaction, when we buy a non-u.s. stock, for example, a stock in a British company, we first buy British pounds, and pay for the pounds with U.S. dollars. Then, we pay the seller of the British stock with British pounds. Then, to hedge the foreign currency risk, we enter into a currency hedging contract which sells the foreign currency that we own as a result of owning the non-u.s. stock. If the particular foreign currency increases in value, i.e. its U.S. dollar price goes up, we typically lose about the same amount on the currency hedging contract as we gained by owning that currency. If, on the other hand, the particular foreign currency decreases in value, i.e. its U.S. dollar price goes down, we typically make about the same amount on the currency hedging contract as we lost by owning that currency. That is how hedging works. (Please see the section entitled How Currency Hedging Works for a more in-depth discussion.) When we enter into a currency hedging contract, we know for sure what our locked-in contractual cost or gain is over the contract period, which, as previously described, depends on interest rate differences between the U.S. and the particular country whose currency is being hedged. What no one knows for sure is how well, or how poorly, a U.S. investor who buys the same non-u.s. stock but does not hedge the currency back into the U.S. dollar will fare versus the U.S. investor who chooses to hedge. Historical data, and our own experience as global investors, has shown that over shorter periods, the currency-hedged U.S. investor sometimes fares better than the unhedged U.S. investor. This happens when the U.S. dollar strengthens, i.e. when the U.S. dollar price of the particular foreign-currency declines. However, sometimes the unhedged U.S. investor fares better than the hedged U.S. investor. This happens when the U.S. dollar weakens, i.e. when the U.S. dollar price of the particular foreign currency increases.

3 page 3 No one knows who will win the hedged or unhedged race until the finish line is reached at the end of the particular period of comparison. All other things being equal, and leaving aside interest rate differences between countries, if the U.S. dollar weakens, a portfolio which hedges non-u.s. currencies back into the U.S. dollar will not have the gains from increases in the U.S. dollar prices of the hedged currencies that a currency-unhedged portfolio will have. Therefore, the currency-hedged portfolio will have worse investment results than the currency-unhedged portfolio in a period when the U.S. dollar has weakened. Conversely, all other things being equal and leaving aside interest rate differences between countries, if the U.S. dollar strengthened, the currency-hedged portfolio would not incur the losses from decreases in the U.S. dollar prices of the hedged currencies that a currencyunhedged portfolio would incur. Therefore, the currency-unhedged portfolio would have worse investment results than the currency-hedged portfolio in a period when the U.S. dollar has strengthened. However, we believe that studies and our own experience have generally shown that over long measurement periods, the returns of hedged portfolios have been similar to the returns of portfolios that have not been hedged. A study by Lee Thomas, The Performance of Currency-Hedged Foreign Equities, examined the performance of equities in Germany, France, Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan and Switzerland from 1975 through 1988, comparing unhedged results to hedged results for a U.S. dollar investor. These six stock markets accounted for about 88% of the world market capitalization, excluding the United States. The study used FT-Actuaries Indices equity returns, included dividends, and assumed that at the beginning of each month the investor hedged by selling forward (for U.S. dollars) for onemonth delivery the foreign currency value of his equity shares. Over the 1975 through June 1988 study period, the compounded annual returns on hedged and unhedged foreign equities were 16.4% and 16.5%, respectively. Another study, Asset Allocation with Hedged and Unhedged Foreign Stocks and Bonds by Philippe Jorion, examined the hedged and unhedged results for an investment in the Morgan Stanley Capital International ( MSCI ) EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index from January 1978 through December This study, like the preceding study by Lee Thomas, assumed that at the beginning of each month, the foreign currency exposure was hedged through a one-month forward sale of the foreign currency value of the equity holdings. Over the January 1978 through December 1988 period, the average annual returns on hedged and unhedged foreign equities were 20.9% and 22.9%, respectively. A more recent study, Currency and Hedging: The Longer-Term Perspective, November 2005, from The Brandes Institute, compared the results of hedging currency versus not hedging currency from the perspective of investors in each of the 23 developed market countries in the MSCI World Index over the 32-year period from the end of 1972 to December 31, The Brandes study developed a database of quarterly results for each of the 23 countries and then calculated simulated passive fully hedged and unhedged results from the standpoint of an investor whose home currency was the particular currency of each of the 23 countries. In other words, the study measured over the 32-year period whether a British investor, who counts his or her wealth in British pounds, fared better with a hedged or unhedged portfolio; or whether a Japanese investor, who counts his or her wealth in yen, fared better with a hedged or unhedged portfolio. The study showed that in six of the eight

4 page 4 largest countries (Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Switzerland and the United Kingdom), the hedged results exceeded the unhedged results by between.20% and.94% annualized over the 32-year period. In two of the eight largest countries (Canada and the United States), the hedged results were worse than the unhedged results by.65% and 2.23% annualized, respectively, over the 32-year period that ended December 31, For the other 15 countries in this 23-country study (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Finland, Greece, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Portugal, and Singapore), the currency hedged results exceeded the unhedged results by between.21% and 2.34% annually for 12 of the countries, and the unhedged results exceeded the currency hedged results by between.52% and 2.19% annually for three of the countries. During our own more recent experience as a global portfolio manager, over the 20½-year period from January 1, 1994 through June 30, 2014, the MSCI World Index (Hedged to US$) had an annualized return of 7.1%; this return was nearly the same as the return over the same period for the unhedged MSCI World Index, which had an annualized return of 7.2%. When considering the cost of hedging, it is important to remember that an investor whose net worth is counted in U.S. dollars really has only two investment alternatives: to be unhedged or to be hedged. The cost of being hedged should only be considered in comparison to the investment results, after the fact, of having been unhedged. The only way that an unhedged U.S. investor in British stocks can earn the same percentage return as the British owner of the same stocks is if the U.S. dollar/british pound exchange rate is unchanged, which seldom happens. In summary, over long measurement periods, studies have generally indicated that the compounded annual returns on hedged foreign stock portfolios have been similar to the returns on unhedged foreign stock portfolios. Over shorter periods of time, hedged equity portfolios have been significantly less volatile than unhedged equity portfolios, and have avoided heart-stopping, multi-year 45% - 58% currency losses. Currency Hedging Costs from a Bargain Hunter's Perspective Leaving aside comparisons of hedged investment returns versus unhedged investment returns, known hedging costs can be considered as part of the net investment to acquire a bargain stock. For example, if the known hedge cost is 3% per year, an investment at 60 per share in a French closed end mutual fund, whose cash and common stock holdings are worth 100 per share, would cost 3% x 60 per share = 1.8 per year. Instead of paying 60 for 100 of true value, the investment over a one-year period would work out to 61.8 for 100 of value. In one year, the French mutual fund s asset value is likely to be worth more than 100. On a net investment basis, a purchase of 100 of true value at 60, with an additional 1.8 cost gradually incurred over a twelve-month period, is still an excellent bargain purchase.

5 page 5 How Currency Hedging Works Currency hedging is similar to selling short. For example, assume we transact to buy $1,000,000 worth of British Steel shares when the exchange rate is: 1 = $2. In order to pay the seller for the British Steel shares which we have agreed to acquire, we first use $1,000,000 to purchase 500,000 at $2.00 per pound, and then deliver the 500,000 to the seller in exchange for the British Steel shares which we have acquired. Now, we own a British stock which is denominated in pounds, not U.S. dollars. To hedge against the risk of the pound exchange rate declining below $2.00, we agree to sell 500,000 (which we do not own) one year later for $1.94 per pound, or $970,000. Assuming the price of British Steel's stock remained unchanged and the exchange rate of the pound declined to $1.50, the U.S. dollar value of our holdings would decline 25%, from $1,000,000 to $750,000, or a $250,000 loss of value. However, our contract to sell 500,000 (which we do not own) at a fixed price of $1.94 (or $970,000) for delivery twelve months later, produced a gain of $220,000 when we bought the 500,000 at $1.50 per pound (or $750,000 total), and delivered them to the buyer in exchange for the previously agreed upon $1.94 per pound (or $970,000 total). The $220,000 hedge profit largely offset the $250,000 currency loss on the British Steel holdings. In this example, if the pound had increased from $2.00 per pound to, say, $3.00 per pound in six months, the U.S. dollar value of the 500,000 invested in British steel stock would have increased from $1,000,000 to $1,500,000, a gain of $500,000. Offsetting this $500,000 currency gain would be a $530,000 hedge loss on the contract to sell 500,000 (which we do not own) at $1.94 per pound. (The 500,000 are purchased at the exchange rate at the end of six months, $3.00 per pound, or $1,500,000 total, and delivered to the buyer, who pays us the previously agreed upon price, $1.94 per pound, or $970,000 total, producing a $530,000 hedge loss.) Currencies are hedged primarily through forward and futures contracts. The cost to a U.S. investor of hedging foreign currencies through forward and futures contracts is approximately equal to the difference between interest rates in the United States and the particular foreign country over the contract period. For example, if interest rates in the United Kingdom are 6% for a one-year certificate of deposit versus 3% for a one-year certificate of deposit in the United States, the cost of selling $1,000,000 worth of pounds forward for delivery in one year will be close to the difference between the one year interest rate in Britain, 6%, and the one-year rate in the U.S., 3%, or a 3% cost, which would be $30,000 on the hedging of $1,000,000 worth of pounds. The reason why the percentage cost of hedging through forward and futures contracts is approximately the difference between interest rates in Britain and the U.S. over the contract period is that the other party to the forward contract, typically a bank, must be reimbursed by the forward contract for the costs which the bank incurs. Those costs are determined primarily by the two countries' interest rates. Here is how it works: Going back to the British Steel example, assume that interest rates in Britain and the U.S. are 6% and 3%, respectively. The exchange rate of the pound on January 1 is $2.00 and we agree to sell $1,000,000 worth of pounds (or 500,000) forward for delivery in one year at $1.94 per pound (or $970,000). The other party to this forward sale transaction, typically a bank, agrees to buy 500,000 from us in one year at a price of $1.94 per pound, or $970,000. The bank entering into this transaction would not want to be obligated to buy 500,000 at $1.94 in one year without protecting itself against currency risk. You can see that if the bank did not protect itself on this obligation, and the pound declined to $1.00 in a year, it would suffer a $470,000

6 page 6 loss. To cover its obligation to buy 500,000 at $1.94 in one year, the bank borrows 500,000 on January 1 at an interest expense of 6% per year (or 30,000, which is $60,000 at the January 1 exchange rate of $2.00 per pound) and uses the 500,000 to buy $1,000,000 U.S. dollars at the January 1 exchange rate, $2.00 per pound. Then, the bank invests the $1,000,000 for one year at the U.S. interest rate, 3%, and earns $30,000 in interest. Twelve months pass, and by December 31 the bank has paid $60,000 in interest on the 500,000, which it has now borrowed for one year, and earned $30,000 in interest on the $1,000,000, which was invested for one year. The net cost to the bank is $60,000 interest expense less $30,000 interest income, or a net cost of $30,000. On December 31, our forward contract to sell 500,000 to the bank at $1.94 per pound, or $970,000 total, comes due. We deliver 500,000 to the bank, which the bank uses to repay the 500,000 which it has borrowed. The bank pays us the agreed amount, $970,000, for the 500,000, which we delivered. The $970,000 paid to us by the bank is the $1,000,000 which the bank had invested for one year, plus $30,000 interest earned for one year, less $60,000 interest cost on the 500,000 which the bank borrowed at 6%. The bank is whole by acting as the counterparty to our forward sale of 500,000 pounds. In actual practice, the difference between the forward currency price and the current currency price would usually be a somewhat greater percentage than the bank's net cost, and the bank would earn a profit. In the above example, if the forward price for the pound had been $1.938 (instead of $1.94), the bank would have been obligated to pay 500,000 x $1.938, or $969,000 on December 31. A $1.938 forward rate would have generated a $1,000 profit for the bank which is broken down as follows: $1,000,000 which the bank had invested for one year, plus $30,000 interest earned for one year, minus $60,000 interest cost on 500,000 which the bank had borrowed at 6% interest, minus $969,000 which must be paid to us on December 31, which equals a $1,000 profit. If the pound had declined from $2.00 to $1.00, the bank would not have suffered any loss, even though it was obligated to buy 500,000 at $1.94, because on January 1 it set aside the dollars to pay this amount. If the pound had increased from $2.00 on January 1 to $3.00 on December 31, the bank would not benefit because the 500,000, which it purchased at $1.94 per pound, were owed to someone else. The bank was obligated to repay its loan of 500,000 through actual delivery of the 500,000 or the equivalent amount of market value, $1,500,000. Arbitrageurs make sure that the difference between the current price of a currency (referred to as the spot rate ) and the price of the currency for future delivery (referred to as the forward rate ) is not less than the interest rate differential. If the difference between the spot rate and forward rate results in hedging costs which are less than the interest rate differential, arbitrageurs will, for example, borrow money in the U.S. for one year at a 3% interest rate, buy pounds with that money, invest the pounds in risk free certificates of deposit to earn 6%, and protect against currency losses by selling the same amount of pounds forward one year. As long as the hedge cost is less than the 3% difference between U.S. and British one-year interest rates, arbitrageurs will continue to engage in such transactions. Their significant sales of the pound in the one-year forward market will have the effect of driving down the forward currency price until the difference between the spot price and the one-year forward price is no longer less than 3%.

7 page 7 NOTES: Please note that the hypothetical illustrations provided herein do not take into account the effect currency fluctuations may have on the price of a particular security due to the global nature of an issuer s business and/or the indirect effect exchange rate changes may have on an issuer's business. These factors are considered on a case-by-case basis when a decision is made on currency hedging for particular securities. However, due to practical considerations, the effect of currency fluctuations on each particular security will not necessarily result in each particular security being fully hedged verses the U.S. dollar at all times. Although hedging against currency exchange rate fluctuations reduces the risk of loss from exchange rate movements, it also reduces the ability of the Funds to gain from favorable exchange rate movements when the U.S. dollar declines against the currencies in which the Funds investments are denominated and in some interest rate environments may impose out-of-pocket costs on the Funds. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. Investing in foreign securities involves additional risks beyond the risks of investing in U.S. securities markets. These risks include currency fluctuations; political uncertainty; different accounting and financial standards; different regulatory environments; and different market and economic factors in various non-u.s. countries. In addition, the securities of small, less well known companies may be more volatile than those of larger companies. Value investing involves the risk that the market will not recognize a security's intrinsic value for a long time, or that a security thought to be undervalued may actually be appropriately priced when purchased. Please refer to the Funds' prospectus for a description of risk factors associated with investments in securities which may be held by the Funds. Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. The preceding material is designed to be illustrative of a general investment philosophy and a broad investment style overview of Tweedy, Browne Company LLC. Index Descriptions: The MSCI EAFE Index (US$) is an unmanaged capitalization-weighted index of companies representing the stock markets of Europe, Australasia and the Far East. The MSCI EAFE Index (Hedged to US$) consists of the results of the MSCI EAFE Index 100% hedged back into U.S. dollars and accounts for interest differentials in forward currency exchange rates. Index results are inclusive of dividends and net of foreign withholding taxes. The MSCI World Index (US$) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. The MSCI World Index (US$) reflects the return of this index for a U.S. dollar investor. The MSCI World Index (Hedged to US$) consists of the results of the MSCI World Index 100% hedged back into U.S. dollars and accounts for interest differentials in forward currency exchange rates. Index results are inclusive of dividends and net of foreign withholding taxes. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged capitalization-weighted index composed of 500 widely held common stocks that assumes the reinvestment of dividends. The index is generally considered representative of U.S. large capitalization stocks. Indexes are unmanaged, and the figures for the indexes shown include reinvestment of dividends and capital gains distributions and do not reflect any fees or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. We strongly recommend that these factors be considered before an investment decision is made. Tweedy, Browne Global Value Fund, Tweedy, Browne Global Value Fund II Currency Unhedged,Tweedy, Browne Value Fund, and Tweedy, Browne Worldwide High Dividend Yield Value Fund are distributed by AMG Distributors, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus for Tweedy, Browne Fund Inc.