The Italian Asset Management market
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- Clarence Carroll
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1 key figures Research Department
2 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
3 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
4 The Italian AM market (Jan 2015: May 2016) AuM, net flows & performance, bn. 4
5 Net flows (monthly data) Jan bn 2013 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Monthly data. Source: Assogestioni. 5
6 Product breakdown IV I +1.4 : M4+M : M4+M I III II Open end Funds Retail Mandates (discretionary portfolios) I +1.1 IV +5.5 III 0.2 : M4+M % 123 7% 49 3% 4% % II III IV +9.7 Closed end Funds Institutional Mandates : M4+M I +8.1 IV 2015 II II III 6
7 Long term trend bn, yearly data. Source: Assogestioni. 7
8 GENERALI EURIZON CAPITAL FIDEURAM PIONEER INVESTMENTS ANIMA HOLDING POSTE ITALIANE BLACKROCK ALLIANZ UBI BANCA MEDIOLANUM AMUNDI AZIMUT BNP PARIBAS AXA BANCO POPOLARE ARCA bn 2% 3% 4% 5% % 73% 82% Funds AuM (May 2016) Top 15 Groups 470 8% 25% 15% 0% 2% 3% 5% 6% 8% n.a Mand. x%: Mkt share + Net flows 2016 :M % 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% Net sales as % AuM
9 Open-end funds: domicile breakdown Dec Dec May % 27% 26% 31% 43% : M5 Domestic +0.0 R trip/offshore Foreign % I :M4+M5 AuM & net flows, bn. 9
10 Long term trend: open-end funds bn, yearly data. Source: Assogestioni. 10
11 Top 15 Groups (open-end funds only) AuM (May 2016) Net flows 2016 :M % 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% EURIZON CAPITAL FIDEURAM PIONEER INVESTMENTS GENERALI BLACKROCK ANIMA HOLDING MEDIOLANUM AZIMUT UBI BANCA JPMORGAN AM ARCA AMUNDI INVESCO FRANKLIN TEMPLETON DEUTSCHE BANK SCHRODERS bn 1% 2% 3% 5% 5% 4% 6% 7% 9% 10% 52% 68% 79% 15% Domestic n.a. 10.2% R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + n.a Net sales as % AuM 11
12 Asset Class breakdown TOTAL 21% 8% 5% 40% 25% DOMESTIC 8% 2% 40% 41% 230 bn 29% R TRIP/OFFSHORE 18% 8% 40% 26% 296 bn 37% FOREIGN 35% 8% 40% 10% 275 bn 34% March % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Equity Balanced Money Market Bond Flexible Hedge 12
13 AuM (Mar 2016) Equity & balanced funds Net flows 2016 I % 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% ITALY EURO AREA 5% 5% EUROPE 23% AMERICA 14% PACIFIC AREA 5% EMERGING MKTS 8% SPECIAL. COUNTRY 5% GLOBAL 23% SPECIAL. SECTOR 9% OTHER 5% BALANCED bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share + Net sales as % AuM 13
14 MM FUNDS Money mkt, Bond, Flex & Hedge funds AuM (Mar 2016) Net flows 2016 I % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% +23% % 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% +23% ITALY EURO GOV. SHORT T. EURO GOV. M/L TERM EURO CORPORATE / HY DOLLAR AREA GLOBAL EM MIXED SPECIALIZED FLEX (BOND) 1% 8% 12% 10% 3% 7% 6% 14% 19% 20% FLEX % HEDGE bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 14
15 Net & gross flows Net ( bn) Gross ( bn) Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q % 40% 30% 20% Gross Sales Gross Redemptions Net Sales Funds w/net Sales>0 15
16 The blockbuster effect : top quartile funds take all Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Net flows, bn. I II III IV Top 1% New Stories 16
17 New stories tag cloud Year New funds STRATEG FORMULA 20 CORPORATE CASH MONEY EMERGING SELECTION LIQUID CONVERTIBLE ASIA STRUCTURED ABS BREVE PROTETTO INDEX BOND MONET ETF CEDOLA EQUITY COUPON TOTAL MONET ETF INDEX PROTETTO EMERGING EQUITY ABS COUPON 20 CASH ASIA BREVE CONVERTIBLE STRATEG CORPORATE CEDOLA FORMULA STRUCTURED BOND LIQUID TOTAL SELECTION MONEY TOTAL MONET PROTETTO ETF ABS ASIA CONVERTIBLE CORPORATE STRATEG BOND 20 FORMULA LIQUID BREVE EMERGING CEDOLA SELECTION MONEY CASH EQUITY STRUCTURED COUPON INDEX BREVE ASIA INDEX STRATEG EQUITY ETF 20 MONEY MONET FORMULA ABS STRUCTURED CASH EMERGING SELECTION COUPON TOTAL PROTETTO LIQUID BOND CORPORATE CEDOLA CONVERTIBLE 17
18 DISCRETIONARY MANDATES (GPF) Mandates: AuM & Net Sales trends AuM (Mar 2016) 3% Net flows 2016 I % 1% 2% 3% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% DISCRETIONARY MANDATES (GPM) 10% PENSION PLANS 8% INSURANCE PRODUCTS (TRADITIONAL) % INSURANCE PRODUCTS (UNIT & INDEX L ED) 7% OTHER 9% bn Foreign Co. Domestic Co. x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 18
19 GENERALI EURIZON CAPITAL FIDEURAM POSTE ITALIANE PIONEER INVESTMENTS ALLIANZ AXA UBI BANCA AMUNDI BANCO POPOLARE ANIMA HOLDING BNP PARIBAS CREDITO EMILIANO CREDIT SUISSE BLACKROCK BANCA ESPERIA bn 1% Top 15 Groups (mandates only) AuM (May 2016) 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% % 7% 77% 87% Retail 40% 15% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% n.a. +16% Instit. x%: Mkt share + Net flows 2016 :M % 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% n.a Net sales as % AuM
20 Insurance Mandates & Captive/Affiliated Insurers GENERALI INVESTMENTS GENERALI ASSICURAZIONI (Gr.) Italian Market: 30% EURIZON CAPITAL / FIDEURAM INTESA SANPAOLO VITA (Gr.) POSTE ITALIANE POSTE VITA PIONEER INVESTMENTS UCB (JV AVIVA / ALLIANZ / CNP) ALLIANZ ALLIANZ ASS. (Gr.) AXA AXA ASS. (Gr.) AMUNDI CREDIT AGRICOLE VITA Italian insurance market (Mar 2016) % BANCO POPOLARE BP (JV AVIPOP / POPOLARE VITA) UBI BANCA UBI BANCA (JV AVIVA / LOMBARDA VITA) BNP PARIBAS BNPP CARDIF VITA bn Mandates Technical Res. bn, December Source: Assogestioni, balance sheets. 20
21 Life Insurance Market: long-term trend Dec Max Unit&Index l. Mar % Funds 26% Bond 67% Dec Dec bn, yearly data. Source: Ania, Ivass. 21
22 Top 10 Life Insurance Groups Technical Reserves (Dec 2015, Ɨ 2014) Flows GENERALI INTESA SANPAOLO Generali Ass./Generali Italia/Alleanza Ass./BG Vita Intesa Sanpaolo Vita/Fideuram Vita POSTE ITALIANE 55% ALLIANZ Allianz/Creditras Vita Ɨ * UNIPOLSAI Unipolsai/Popolare Vita/Bim Vita/Arca Vita Ɨ 70% * MEDIOLANUM AVIVA Ɨ * AXA Ɨ * BNP PARIBAS Ɨ * CATTOLICA Ɨ 85% * bn Class I & Other Class III (unit/index) x%: Mkt share Net flows (*: not + available) Premiums 22
23 Top 10 Unit&Index Linked Groups Technical Reserves (Dec 2015, Ɨ 2014) Flows INTESA SANPAOLO Intesa Sanpaolo Vita/Fideuram Vita ALLIANZ Allianz/Creditras Vita Ɨ * MEDIOLANUM GENERALI POSTE ITALIANE Generali Ass./Generali Italia/Alleanza/BG Vita 51% 68% OLD MUTUAL Ɨ * AVIVA Ɨ * CNP ASSURANCES Ɨ * CREDIT AGRICOLE Ɨ * UNIPOLSAI Ɨ 87% * bn x%: Mkt share + Net flows (*: not available) Premiums 23
24 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
25 A pro-cyclical market MSCI WORLD (Loc) bn, yearly data. Source: Assogestioni, MSCI. 25
26 ... in search for yield BTP Yield (Rendistato) may % Yield. Source: Bank of Italy. 26
27 AM Market, GDP & Bank credit Net sales (r.) Corporate loans (l.,index) GDP (l.,index) Italy Germany France UK bn 90 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I '16 60 Source: Assogestioni, Bank of Italy, Eurostat. 27
28 Households: less bonds, more funds (flow view) bn Currency&Deposits Italian Gov.Bonds Bank Bonds Investment Funds Pension Funds&Life Products bn. Source: Bank of Italy. 28
29 Households: less bonds, more funds (stock view) Total Asset Currency & deposits Bonds Issued by Total banks Total Stocks Listed Investm ent funds Pension funds & life pr Italy bn % % % % % % % , % 22.6% 1.9% 19.3% 2.8% 5.8% 8.7% , % 16.5% 6.4% 29.5% 5.4% 17.0% 10.0% , % 19.0% 7.1% 28.3% 2.4% 11.0% 14.2% , % 19.7% 10.3% 20.1% 2.0% 7.5% 17.6% , % 19.3% 10.0% 19.7% 1.6% 7.3% 17.8% , % 13.6% 6.2% 22.0% 1.6% 9.6% 19.4% , % 10.7% 4.5% 23.3% 1.6% 11.1% 20.1% 2015 France 4, % 1.4% n.a. 20.8% 4.7% 7.0% 34.1% Germany 5, % 3.2% n.a. 10.4% 5.0% 9.9% 31.0% UK 8, % 1.5% n.a. 7.4% 2.3% 4.1% 58.1% USA 64, % 4.6% n.a. 34.2% n.a. 13.0% 32.5% %. Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. 29
30 The uptick of the saving rate is good news for the industry 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% Q4 0% EU avg Italy Germany France UK Gross household saving rates. Source: Eurostat. 30
31 Banks: no more dependent on funding from retail investors Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Retail Bank Bonds Domestic and Round Trip Funds Foreign Funds Quarterly flows, bn. Source: Assogestioni, Bank of Italy. 31
32 ... and urged to sustain profitability through non interest-based sources of revenues Q Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Funds flows, captive Man.Cos (l.) Net interest margin (r.) bn. Source: Assogestioni, bank balance sheets (Top 5 groups). 32
33 The success of funds with high margins (target-date funds) MM FUNDS AuM (Mar 2016) Net flows 2016 I % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% +23% % 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% +23% ITALY EURO GOV. SHORT T. EURO GOV. M/L TERM EURO CORPORATE / HY DOLLAR AREA GLOBAL EM MIXED SPECIALIZED FLEX (BOND) 1% 8% 12% 10% 3% 7% 6% 14% 19% 20% FLEX % HEDGE bn Domestic R trip/offshore Foreign x%: Mkt share Net sales as % AuM 33
34 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
35 Net Assets by fund domicile 3,395 3% +13% 13,039 2% +17% 1,761 +2% +9% 1,667 1% +6% 1,398 6% +13% 1,831 4% +14% 61% Ucits AIF 16Q1 15 Growth rate 90% Spezialf % +21% 276 2% +13% Germany 14% France 13% UK 11% Switzerland 4% Italy 2% Luxembourg 26% Ireland 14% Europe 100% 44% 40% 2016Q1 bn. Source: Efama, AFG, BVI. 35
36 Net sales by fund domicile Italy 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% France 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% Germany 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% 14% IV III II IV I III II I I % % UK 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% Luxembourg 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% Europe 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% I I IV III II IV III II I Net sales as a % of AuM. Yearly data in bn. Source: Efama, BVI. 36
37 Net Assets by fund domicile Long-term growth Ireland Luxembourg UK France Germany 100 Italy Q1 Index values. Source: Efama. 37
38 Net Assets by fund group domicile 3,395 3% +13% 13,039 2% +17% 2,324 +1% +10% Exp 10% 1,962 1% +8% 2,544 5% +13% Exp > 90% 969 2% +7% % +15% 61% 1,831 4% +14% 39% 61% Domestic Funds Ucits Domestic Funds AIF Luxembourg Funds Irish Funds 16 Q1 Growth rate 15 Germany 24% France 15% UK 45% Switzerland 49% Italy 51% Luxembourg Ireland Europe 2016Q1. bn. Foreign (Round-trip) share in %. Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI & IFIA data. 38
39 Net sales: fund domicile vs. fund group domicile Italy 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% France 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% Germany 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% 14% 9% IV III II IV I III I II I % % UK 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% Luxembourg 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% Europe 8% 6% 4% 2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8% I I II IV II III I III IV Net sales as a % of AuM. Fund domicile (blue), fund group domicile (black). Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI, IFIA & BVI data. 39
40 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates A snapshot of the insurance market The recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile 3. Savings & Wealth Household saving rate: trend & int l comparison Household financial portfolio & private pension plans
41 Household saving rates in Europe 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% Q4 0% EU avg Italy Germany France UK Gross household saving rates. Source: Eurostat. 41
42 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% 1.0% consumption 0.5% 0.0% 16% 14% 13.8% 12% Italy -0.5% 10% 10.4% -1.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 8% Q4 income 2008Q4:2015Q4. Source: Eurostat. 42
43 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% 1.0% consumption 0.5% 0.0% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 17.1% Germany 17.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% France 14.7% % 2015 Q4 income 2008Q4:2015Q4. Source: Eurostat. 43
44 How income & consumption Δ% affect saving rates 1.5% 1.0% consumption 0.5% 0.0% 12% 10% 8% UK 11.7% -0.5% 6% 5.8% 4.7% -1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 4% Q4 income 2008Q4:2015Q4 Source: Eurostat. 44
45 Household financial portfolio breakdown Total Issued by banks Total Listed Italy bn % % % % % % % , % 22.6% 1.9% 19.3% 2.8% 5.8% 8.7% , % 16.5% 6.4% 29.5% 5.4% 17.0% 10.0% , % 19.0% 7.1% 28.3% 2.4% 11.0% 14.2% , % 19.7% 10.3% 20.1% 2.0% 7.5% 17.6% , % 19.3% 10.0% 19.7% 1.6% 7.3% 17.8% , % 13.6% 6.2% 22.0% 1.6% 9.6% 19.4% , % 10.7% 4.5% 23.3% 1.6% 11.1% 20.1% 2015 Total Asset Currency & deposits Bonds Stocks Investment funds Pension funds & life pr France 4, % 1.4% n.a. 20.8% 4.7% 7.0% 34.1% Germany 5, % 3.2% n.a. 10.4% 5.0% 9.9% 31.0% UK 8, % 1.5% n.a. 7.4% 2.3% 4.1% 58.1% USA 64, % 4.6% n.a. 34.2% n.a. 13.0% 32.5% %. Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. High level of direct investment (~ 35%) Decreasing amounts of bank issued bonds (5.0%) Negligible level of listed shares. High level of unlisted ones. Funds: rise until 1999 (18%) then down, then again up. Pensions/life product: up but still too modest. 45
46 Managed products in household portfolios Investment funds Pension funds & life products 20% 18% 16% abnormally high? 60% 50% 14% 12% 40% 10% 8% 30% 6% too low? 20% 4% 2% 0% % 0% Italy France Germany United Kingdom USA Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank. 46
47 key figures Research Department
The Italian Asset Management market
key figures Research Department 1. Summary statistics Open-end funds Mandates The recent mkt recovery, some tentative explanations 2. The European Investment Fund Industry Net assets & sales by fund /
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