Exane BNP Paribas Spain Investors Day

Transcription

1 Exane BNP Paribas Spain Investors Day Francisco Sancha, CFO Madrid, January 13 th, 2015

2 Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Banco Popular Español solely for purposes of information. It may contain estimates and forecasts with respect to the future development of the business and to the financial results of the Banco Popular Group, which stem from the expectations of the Banco Popular Group and which, by their very nature, are exposed to factors, risks and circumstances that could affect the financial results in such a way that they might not coincide with such estimates and forecasts. These factors include, but are not restricted to, (i) changes in interest rates, exchange rates or any other financial variables, both on the domestic as well as on the international securities markets, (ii) the economic, political, social or regulatory situation, and (iii) competitive pressures. In the event that such factors or other similar factors were to cause the financial results to differ from the estimates and forecasts contained in this presentation, or were to bring about changes in the strategy of the Banco Popular Group, Banco Popular does not undertake to publicly revise the content of this presentation. This presentation contains summarised information and may contain unaudited information. In no case shall its content constitute an offer, invitation or recommendation to subscribe or acquire any security whatsoever, nor is it intended to serve as a basis for any contract or commitment whatsoever. 2

3 Agenda 1. Main challenges banks confront today 2. How Popular plans to overcome these challenges 3. Conclusions 3

4 Main challenges banks confront today Challenges Top line growth Interest rates at minimum level Non-core activities disposals Regulatory In theory, how to tackle them? Increase spreads in assets and liabilities Active ALCO hedging through bonds Expand fee business Effective strategy to shed non core activities Conservative Capital Management In practice, where we stand? Asset spreads: Limited capacity, even compression Liability spreads: Still high potential in some banks Loan growth: the next challenge Sovereign spreads and yield curve suggest this strategy is exhausted Opportunity in AuM Most banks have clearly defined strategies to unwind non core assets Success related to economic recovery Total capital & other capital requirements gaining importance RWA density homogenization 4

5 Agenda 1. Main challenges banks confront today 2. How Popular plans to overcome these challenges 3. Conclusions 5

6 How Popular plans to overcome these challenges Challenges Top line growth Interest rates at minimum level Non-core activities disposals Regulatory Areas of operating focus & strategic priorities for Banco Popular in 2015 How Popular plans to confront them? We expect deleveraging to end in 2015 We will continue to actively manage spreads, especially on the liability side Relatively, low impact from potential reduction from carry trade We maintain a conservative investment policy towards debt securities More focus on fee business (AuM) Reducing NPAs is a key priority NPLs have already peaked while quality of new business is at very high standards Doubling REO assets sales maintaining prices above marks CET1 at solid levels. Building total capital requirements High RWA density and best in class leverage ratio leaves Popular well positioned for potential future RWA homogenization 6

7 1 Top line growth Lending growth is the next challenge, with SMEs offering the highest growth potential though this segment requires skills which cannot be improvised overnight Activity split as of 3Q14 (% over total assets) Key management pillars of SME model Other 29% Commercial ing 71% Commercial ing split as of 3Q14 (% over total assets) Other 28% Corporates 17% SMEs & Self employed 55% the most desirable business mix Strategy based on profitable growth Strong SME culture HR Operational management Efficiency Branch network 5 pillars Focus on clients Product Risk management Tailored products and prices High quality, quick-response service. Lower EL than peers Specialized sales force Specialists in Corporate centers to bring new SME business + 2,000 Branch managers SME & corporates managers 7

8 1 Top line growth Our positioning among SMEs with higher entry barriers and a strong relationship as a primary bank is what also differentiates our SME business model Banco Popular s SME split is biased towards small & micro companies Being the primary bank is what makes de difference Large corporate SMEs & professionals % over SMEs & professionals loans (1) x2.4 > 100m turnover Medium company 30% < 10m turnover < 1m turnover Small company Micro & professionals 31% 8 39% Customer with single transactions managed Customer with a high level of transactions managed (1) Non RE related (2) Average gross margin generated in long term/ short term investments and specialized products per customer This position generates high entry barriers to our competitors 8

9 1 Top line growth Three years in a row leading the pack in ICO/SME loans Gross new lending production evolution ( m) Lending evolution 7,089 7, % -0,4% 1,8% 4,3% 9,7% 6,7% 6,3% 2,9% -4,1% -5,4% -4,0% -4,5% -6,2% -4,5% -4,4% 9M13 9M14 ICO official credit lines market share evolution 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 % YoY lending to SMEs % YoY Gross loans ex public admin. 19% 12% 11% 11% 9% 21% 19% 18% 13% 8% Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Source: ICO (credit lines prefunded). s: BBVA, Sabadell, Caixabank & Santander Corporate deals included proforma 9

10 2 Interest rate at minimum level Our NII is of better quality and is well placed to absorb the impact from the normalization of the securities portfolio 1,60 2,55 3Q14 Gross yield Debt portfolio (%) 3,32 3,39 3,65 3,70 POP 1 Average ex POP Best earning quality 3Q14 NIM comparison (%) +26% 3Q14 NIM ex securities contribution comparison (%) +55% 1,63 1,29 1,52 0,98 POP Average peers ex POP POP Average peers ex POP We plan to maintain a conservative policy regarding the securities portfolio Source: Internal estimates and analysts reports. s: inter, Caixabank and Sabadell 10

11 2 Interest rate at minimum level In this low rate but high liquidity environment, managing customer spreads will be crucial still room to improve 3Q14 Time deposits: front book cost vs. back book cost 3Q14 front book vs. back book customer spreads 47 bn 1.76% -100bp 3.56% -98 bp <0.80% 2.58% Time deposits Average cost of back book Front book cost sep-14 Average front book customer spread Average back book customer spread Maturities profile of time deposits and funding cost Funding cost (%) 1.25% 1.69% 1.96% 1.69% 2.19% Maturities (, million) 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 > 1 year Note: Excludes Totalbank deposits and other 11

12 3 Disposing non-core activities Reducing NPAs is a key priority for the bank. NPLs have already peaked while the new business underwritten is of high quality Net NPLs entries evolution ( m) % of the NPL stock performing! M2014 New business under-written: high quality loans (1) (% over total loans) 81% +7 pp 88% M14 (1) High quality: loans rating by internal models with ratings at or above B, with a one year historical PD below 1% NPL coverage evolution The current provisioning effort coupled with NPL trends should allow us to gradually normalize the cost of risk over the next years 40% +4 pp 44% 4Q13 3Q14 12

13 3 Disposing non-core activities while increasing the sale of REO assets is also key. We are doubling sales and prices are still above marks 398 c.x2 Real Estate Assets sales ( m) 774 c.x bn +33% 2bn 102% Growth in RE sales (%, 9M14 vs. 9M13) x6 17% M e 2015e POP Average peers ex POP Banco Popular s discount in sales vs. coverage 44% 40% 36% Average coverage Discount over gross value 32% ene-14 Jan-14 Mar-14 mar-14 May-14 may-14 Jul-14 jul-14 Sep-14 sep-14 13

14 3 Disposing non-core activities We will further boost these REO sales thanks to a better RE market and improving processes of our non core unit Recent dynamics of Spanish RE market 3Q14 House prices (Evolution YoY) Prices recovering: -0.08% QoQ and +1.15% YoY after 6 years of decrease Foreign demand at record high: 13% of total sales to foreign buyers Number of transactions picking up: +8% total transactions in 3Q14 vs. 3Q13 0% 1T95 /... 1T14 Recent measures to further boost sales Recently developed an external agencies network to improve the distribution channel Increased sales force 10% YTD Actions to considerably shorten the foreclosure period and increase the stock available for sale Source: INE database and Official College of Property and Mercantile Registers of Spain 14

15 4 Regulatory Banco Popular has made an important effort and today we are backed by strong solvency ratios and are well prepared for the new capital requirements 11.17% CET % (phased in) CET1 (fully loaded) 3Q14 main capital ratios Leverage 6.04% ratio MREL >8% (fully loaded) MREL vs. 3% threshold (BIS proposal) 15

16 4 Regulatory Investors/supervisors: let s not forget to measure the quality of capital CRD IV fully loaded leverage ratio (%) (1) Average (ex Popular): 4.07% RWAs/Total Assets (%) (1)(2) Average (ex Popular): 32.8% (1) s: Barclays, BBVA, BNP Paribas, BPI, Caixabank, CASA, Commerzbank, Danske, Deutsche, DNB, ING, KBC, Lloyds, Nordea, RBS, SEB, Societe Generale, Swedbank (2) Basel 2.5 RWAs as reported by each bank 16

17 Agenda 1. Main challenges banks confront today 2. How Popular plans to overcome these challenges 3. Conclusions 17

18 Conclusions 1 The economic recovery in Spain is gradually improving although challenges in the banking landscape remain 2 Therefore, our focus is now on exploiting the opportunities the economic recovery provides to reinforce our superior profitability while coping with the tough rates and regulatory environment 3 Our top priorities remain unchanged: keep growing our unique SME franchise, active management of spreads & accelerate strongly RE assets sales while reducing NPLs 4 Our best in class Pre-provision Profit put us in a favorable position to post superior returns in the coming years 18

19 Thank you Q&A 19

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