Predictive Analytics and the Big Data Challenge

Transcription

1 Predictive Analytics and the Big Data Challenge Andrei Grigoriev, MBA, MSc Sr. Director, Custom Development EMEA SAP Nice, April 2014

2 What is Predictive Analytics Predictive analytics is about analyzing known facts and making predictions about unknown events. Analyzing algorithms Known facts (big) data Unknown events either in the past or in the future 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 2

3 Arrow of Time Observer Entropy (randomness) increases Past Cause Future Effect Known facts can be both in the past and future 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 3

4 Big Data Will Be Just Data Soon Big Data is about managing and analyzing large volumes of various types of data with great velocity Exabyte Petabyte Age 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 4

5 Big Data Are There Limits? In the context of this paper: information about as many relevant events as possible with the highest possible resolution (granularity) I believe there is no theoretical limit, i.e. indefinite data resolution is possible. Will we have enough energy to deal with that that is not in the context of this paper SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 5

6 Practical Considerations We only need to predict with a reasonable accuracy i.e. a good prediction means we always gain something. For example, price of shares. What if everyone is able to predict? Example: two people betting, both predict same results, no gain but commission is paid resources drained, either betting will stop or hyper inflation will happen. Not sure what effect it will have on the financial system but there are areas where benefits are clear Life Sciences SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 6

7 Hardware and Software Innovations Technology that allows the processing of massive quantities of real-time data in the main memory of the server to provide immediate results from analyses and transactions. HW Technology Innovations Software Technology Innovations Multi-core architecture Massive parallel scaling Cheap, commodity servers Row and column store Compression Column = Fast queries 5 30x ratio Huge data throughput performance Dramatic decline in price/performance Partitioning & parallelization No aggregate tables Analyze large data sets Complex computations Parallel processing Flexible modeling No data duplication 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 7

8 Life Sciences Challenge Creating better drugs and treatment is becoming more of a mathematical and engineering challenge. Next generation sequencing is making genome data commodity but a lot more innovation should happen in algorithms and high performance computing to make the most of that. We need to get results faster but we also need to be able to ask deeper and broader questions, look at many more scenarios before making a decision and analyze data from multiple sources. We need to make it affordable SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 8

9 Increased Data Value Pathway A molecular pathway is a signaling cascade in a cell with proteins as key components Drug Compound designed to cure diseases METABOLOMICS PROTEOMICS TRANSCRIPTOMICS GENOMICS Today 3500 known diseases caused by DNA changes (expected to be 7000) Value of Information 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 9

10 Genome Sequencing Sequencing Service/Lab e.g. Biologist Computational Pipeline e.g. Bioinformatician Computational Analysis e.g. Clinicians AND Researchers Sequencing Alignment Variant Calling Annotation and Analysis Patient Samples Raw DNA Reads Mapped Genome Discovered Variants Follow-up and Validation Find positions of reads within a reference genome Find statistically relevant deviations from reference genome Search for known and unknown patterns within reconstructed genome Sequencing hours Alignment and variant calling weeks 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 10

11 Big Data in Life Sciences Research & Development Planning Procurement Production Quality Assurance Sales & Marketing Storage & Delivery Analysis of next generation sequencing data Analysis of LIMS and recipe data Sales & Operations Planning Margin Simulation with Raw Material Prices Real-time Analysis of process engineering data Real-time complaint and sales reporting Social Media Analytics Predictive analytics Customer Segmen-tation Acceleration High Throughput Screening Analysis of patents and documents Predictive Customer Segmen-tation Drug serialization Global batch tracebility 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 11

12 Thank you Contact information: Andrei Grigoriev, MBA, MSc Sr. Director, Custom Development EMEA 1A Waterside CityWest Business Campus Dublin 24 Ireland 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.

13 Backup

14 Abstract Predictive analytics is about analyzing known facts to make predictions about unknown events. What if we knew absolutely everything that ever happened and every bit of that data was available instantaneously would that enable us to make more accurate predictions? With examples from Life Sciences and Genes Expressions research this presentation explores the impact of Big Data and In-Memory technologies on analytics and discuses the possibility of a new reality where accurate predictions is an affordable commodity available to everyone how will that change our world? 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 14

15 Biography Andrei is Senior Director at SAP with expertise in big data, in-memory computing and analytics. He has over 16 years of diverse international career in development, product management and organizational leadership. Andrei frequently speaks at industry events and conferences on big data, business intelligence, analytics. He hosts annual SAP Life Sciences Innovations Forums. He lectured and presented at leading universities in the UK and Ireland. Andrei holds MBA and MSc degrees from University College Dublin SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 15

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