Landslides: The Poor Stepchild of GeoHazards; What We and Other Countries Can Do to Solve It! Scott Burns Portland State University Dept.

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1 Landslides: The Poor Stepchild of GeoHazards; What We and Other Countries Can Do to Solve It! Scott Burns Portland State University Dept. of Geology

2 Afghanistan: 2014: 2700 dead

3 West Salt Creek Landslide, Colorado: 2014: 4 dead

4 Oso Landslide, Washington March 22, 2014: 43 Dead

5 Outline of Talk Congressional Testifying Landslides Essentially No Insurance: Examples (most end in lawsuits) Need for 3 levels of Mapping and Use of Maps Other Countries examples Thoughts on Oso Conclusions

lawsuits) Need for 3 levels of Mapping and Use of

6 Each Year: deaths in North America & $3.5 billion damage Landslides: The Poor Stepchild of Everywhere: July New York I mapped over 800 slides in Louisiana Mostly localized except when regional triggers

7 Homeowner s Insurance 1) 80 years ago earthquakes, floods and landslides not covered by homeowner s insurance 2) Insurance companies worked with actuaries to get earthquake and flood insurances as add-ons to homeowner s insurance 3) Landslide insurance still not out there for normal homeowner ( talks today & tomorrow by Keaton and Roth) 4) Most landslides end in lawsuits because no insurance! 5) Most people do not realize that landslides are not insured!

insurance 3) Landslide insurance still not out there for normal homeowner ( talks today & tomorrow by Keaton and

8 Loess: Earthflows Calvary Cemetery

9 Before No Insurance!

10 Portland, Oregon, USA October 8, 2008

11 October 8, 2008

13 Human Involvement There is a geyser in my front yard! Street Drains Clogged: Street runoff Saturates slope and slide fills house

14 January 1, 2009: 8 cm rain in 24 hours

15 Slide Below the Road Destroys House: Lake Oswego, Oregon

18 Flake Landslide, Corvallis, Oregon, 2012

20 2002 Newell Creek Apts. Oregonian 10/05/2006

21 Newell Creek Apartments Oregon City Jan 6, 2006

22 Newell Creek Apartments Oregon City Jan 6, 2006

23 Jan. 6, 2006

24 Newell Creek Apts. Jan 6, 2006

26 January 1, 2009 Estacada,, Oregon Note Vegetation!

27 Kelso Landslide First FEMA LS Disaster: th Largest landslide involving houses in the United State s history

28 Destruction 60 Houses destroyed on the lower slide 77 Homes sit uphill from scarp What do we do? Costs: City infrastructure: $6.2 Million Costs: Private property: $25.7 Million FEMA: only gives 3.5% loans and helps city with infrastructure; rest of people lose everything

29 77 homes remain above scarp 60 homes destroyed Kelso damage - $25 million

30 Reactivation of Slides Kelso: FEMA package was about $.30 on the dollar; lawsuit failed against city

31 Kelso: FEMA package was about $.30 on the dollar; lawsuit failed against city

32 Debris Flows Can Be Deadly Fall Douglas Country Debris Fan Home Douglas County Four Dead

33 Germantown Road

34 Importance of Using LiDAR Street of Dreams Oregon City February, 2007

36 Street of Dreams, Oregon City, OR Lidar Image Yellow: Ancient Landslides: Inventory Map

37 February 17, 2007

38 February 17, 2007

39 February 17, 2007

40 Troutdale Fm: Fluvial Deposits Holly Lane Oregon City, Oregon

41 IMPORTANT FIRST STEPS: INVENTORY & SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPS Phase 1: Inventory Maps where were past slides, processes related to geology Phase 2: Susceptibility Maps extrapolate principles from inventory maps to low, medium and high susceptibility zones Phase 3: Risk maps need population density and usage of areas

42 Examples Countries with possibility of landslide insurance: Germany and Switzerland (working on it) US through Lloyds of London difficult to get and very expensive All Hazard Insurance: New Zealand (quakes, floods, fires, volcanoes, tsunamis, landslides)

43 Sept. 3, 2010: Christchurch, NZ, 7.1 Feb. 22, 2011: Christchurch, NZ, 6.3, 180 dead Aftershocks above 3 mag. & rupture of Canterbury. Rob Langridge and William Ries, GNS Science

45 Losses in Christchurch, NZ 1) 390,000 people in area of 450 km2 2) $40 billion losses 3) 60,000 houses affected; 20,000 houses had significant damage; 8000 houses abandoned 4) Business buildings: 2400 of 3000 were deconstructed 5) Liquifaction and lateral spread main causes 6) 12,000 aftershocks and over two years to repair infrastructure

47 Student Volunteer Army, organized by Sam Johnson through Facebook, cleaning up after liquefaction

48 New Zealand - sunken vehicle in a sand blow after quake

49 New Zealand: sand volcanoes cover the seabed of the Heathcote Estuary

50 Future Counties: need landslide susceptibility maps (already have flood and earthquake maps) Counties: communications between map makers and planners giving building permits Insurance: need landslide insurance or all hazard insurance like New Zealand Landslide awareness already raised: Wyoming! When landslide first happens, first evaluate the stability of the upper slope

51 An intact house sits at the edge of the landslide on March 24, 2014

52 Thoughts on the Oso Landslide: a) Iverson: Landslide one not two phases & Debris Avalanche Flow based on eye witness & seismic (long period waves) b) New Model coming from Hungr and Stark c) This is our New Poster Child For Landslides d) Landslide Hazard Evaluation Differs from Hazard Recognition (Iverson) e) Most important landslide in US history most deadly and incredible mobility hard to predict

53 Bonneville Landslide Complex Similar to Oso?

54 Most Deadly American Landslides a) 1928: St. Francis Dam, California: 500 b) 1985: Mameyes, Puerto Rico (Hurricane Isabel): 129 c) 1980: Mt. St. Helens (not all from landslide) 57 d) 2014: Oso Washington 43 e) 1959: Madison Canyon, Montana 29 f) 2005: La Conchita, California 10 g) 1974: Canyonville, Oregon 9 One event over many valleys killed 150 in 1969 from Hurricane Camille in Nelson County, Virginia from debris flows. Source: Lynn Highland

Oso Landslide, Washington March 22, 2014. Compiled by Scott Burns Portland State

Oso Landslide, Washington March 22, 2014 Compiled by Scott Burns Portland State Monday, March 31, 2014 Snohomish County Oso is highlighted DETAILS 29 Dead; 13 missing 49 houses destroyed (25 full time