High School Graduation Rates NEVADA KIDS COUNT. Issue # 4. Fall Introduction

Transcription

1 High School Graduation Rates Issue # 4 Fall 2009 Introduction NEVADA KIDS COUNT Americans have long held the view that with hard work, a person with little education can be successful and support a family. Thirty years ago that may have been true, but it is much less likely today. The globalization of the U.S. economy has raised demand for highly skilled workers leaving those with less education to compete for fewer jobs. Education is essential to becoming a successful adult in today s world. Research clearly shows that those with higher education benefit in many ways, from higher wages and better health to being able to provide a stable home for their families (Alliance for Excellent Education, 2007). Figure 1 uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics which show the unemployment rate and weekly earnings by educational attainment in the U.S. for During 2008, those with lower levels of education had substantially higher unemployment rates. The unemployment rate for individuals without a high school diploma or general equivalency diploma (GED) was 9 percent, but for individuals who earned a high school diploma, the unemployment rate was just 5.7 percent. The graph also shows that median weekly earnings for those without a high school diploma are $165 less per week than those with a high school diploma. Figure 1: Unemployment Rate and Median Earnings by Educational Attainment: 2008 U N L V Center for Business and Economic Research

2 While these numbers seem high and could be a reflection of the current recession, a look back at historical data shows that, in general, those with lower levels of education are more likely to be unemployed, especially during economic downturns. See Figure 2. Figure 2: Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment: Communities also benefit from more-educated citizens through lower crime rates, less reliance on social assistance programs, and higher community involvement, such as voting or volunteering. As a nation it is essential to have a well-trained work force to compete in an increasingly competitive global economy. For the last 25 years the high school graduation rate was predominately reported by the U.S. Department of Education and the U.S. Census Bureau at around 80 percent (Pinkus, 2006). The calculations were unchallenged and states and school districts were allowed to develop their own data collection and reporting methods. More recently, the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Act mandated that states develop an annual measure of school assessment based on specific criteria, but states were left on their own to decide how to accumulate the information. The result is a hodgepodge of statistics that is not interchangeable. One must be careful when 2

3 trying to compare the various statistics. Many times graduation rates are reported without the source and the rate definitions. More recently researchers have questioned the validity of the graduation rate, either calculating new graduation rates or trying to correct for inconsistencies or measurement error in the current statistics (Greene, Winters, & Swanson, 2006 and Heckman & LaFontaine, 2008). The researchers use different data and methods to recalculate the graduation rate. Their figures range from 66 to 88 percent; nevertheless, they show graduation rates declining since the late 1960s (Heckman & LaFontaine, 2008). The graduation rates for minorities are estimated to be even lower, at 50 to 85 percent. The focus on methodology has raised awareness of the need for better data and a uniform reporting standard to be able to produce accurate estimates of the graduation rate (Pinkus, 2006). This rest of this issue brief (1) discusses information gathered by the Alliance for Excellent Education on how to define a graduation rate, (2) discusses how we might go about collecting accurate data, (3) reports some of the more common statistics that are quoted in the media, and (4) outlines Nevada s plan for a better reporting system. Defining the Graduation Rate The graduation rate should be defined as: Graduation Rate = # (of students who graduated with a regular diploma) / (# of students who should have received a diploma) We should be able to estimate the rate for any number of different demographics, such as the total student body, gender, race, ethnicity, or by socioeconomic status. On the surface, it seems straight forward. In practice, however, many questions arise that affect the calculation. The researcher must decide how to handle the following: What is considered a high school completion indicator a GED, a regular diploma, or a certificate of attendance? Who is counted as a graduate 9-12 graders, 12th graders only, 9th graders 4 years earlier, or individuals ages 16-24? How should we deal with students who transfer from their school, move out of state, drop out of school, are enrolled in special education, require extra time to graduate, or who repeat a grade? How researchers and reporting agencies answer these question determines the graduation rate that is reported. Unfortunately, without a uniform standard, it has led to many statistics being reported. Data Issues Increased research on graduation rates revealed many problems with current datagathering methods. Over the years, each state has developed its own database with its own definitions. States are not required to report data in any set structure, so definitions and what information is collected also vary. Systems are not required to be compatible across states, school districts, or schools, so records are not easily shared. Also, most systems are set up to report cross-sectional data which reflect the student body at a given point in time as opposed to longitudinal data, which follow a student throughout his/her entire career. Cross-sectional data do not report the actual outcome for each student, and measurement error occurs when the system loses track of students because of their many moves or low performance, which can inflate the graduation rate. Types of Indicators and Frequently Used Graduation Rates There are two broad types of indicators, performance based and population based. The most widely used are the performance- 3

4 based indicators. These are generally used by schools and districts to track when a student in the system receives a diploma on time. The rates are generated using enrollment figures, correcting for transfers, repeaters, and population changes. The less widely used population-based indicators are designed to measure the overall educational attainment of the population. Performance Based Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rate (ACGR) This statistic is commonly known as the National Governors Association (NGA) Compact rate. The AGCR was designed to measure on-time graduates in a given year divided by first-time-entering ninth graders four years earlier, adjusted for transfers in and out. This measure counts only regular, on-time diplomas. Students who earn GEDs and certificates of completion are excluded from the calculation (NGA, 2008). Exclusion-Adjusted Cohort Graduation Indicator (EACGI) This statistic is commonly referred to as the National Center of Educational Statistics (NCES) graduation rate. It is designed to measure the cumulative entry cohort (firsttime 9th graders, plus transferring-in-and-out 10th, 11th, and 12th graders) who graduate on time divided by the total adjusted cumulative entry cohort. This statistic measures an ontime graduation rate, but can also be adjusted to include other types of completions (Pinkus, 2006). completers divided by dropouts for grades 9-12, respectively, in consecutive years, plus high school completers. This statistic includes all types of completions except the General Education Development (GED) tests (NCES, 2005). Population Based Indicators NCES Educational Attainment Indicator This rate is commonly referred to as the census-based rate. It uses self-reported data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). The graduation rate is calculated as the total number of 25- to 29-year-olds who report earning a high school diploma or GED divided by the total number of 25- to 29-yearolds (Pinkus, 2006). Nevada Statistics Currently, the Nevada Department of Education reports the NCES leaver rate which it uses for public reporting and NCLB accountability. Last year s graduation rate was reported as 67.4 percent. Figure 3 reports the graduation rate by race for the school year. Graduation rates for black and Hispanic students are significantly lower than the state average at 53.4 and 53.7 percent, respectively. Four-Year High School Completion Rate (HSCR) This statistic is commonly known as the NCES leaver rate or the departure classification rate. The rate measures the total high school 4

5 Figure 3: Nevada Graduation Rates by Race/Ethnicity: School Year NCES Graduation Rate NV American Indian/ Alaskan Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black/African American Hispanic White Race/Ethnicity Source: Nevada Accountability Report for NCLB, available online at: < Plans for Improvement Educators, researchers, and policy makers all agree that there is a need for improved data collecting and reporting. In 2005, the National Governors Association signed an agreement to move to reporting graduation rates by a common formula by 2012 (NGA, 2008). The agreement also included commitments to build state data collection and reporting capacity while also developing new student-outcome indicators. NGA Rate= [students graduating within 4 years with a diploma] / [(fi rst-time entering ninth graders 4 years ago)] Nevada is currently on track to begin reporting this statistic in 2010 (NGA, 2008). In 2005, the NGA announced that Nevada would receive a $150,000 grant to build a longitudinal data system to connect K-12 to postsecondary data systems (NGA, 2005). Development of the data system is underway and features a unique student identifier to connect students information in key databases. The database will be able to track students test records year-over-year to measure academic growth and transcript information on courses taken and grades received. The system also will be able to connect records from preschool to the higher- education system. The data system will provide the state with the means to assess data quality, validity, and reliability over the years (NGA, 2008). This database will help track students information and outcomes and will greatly enhance teachers ability to meet students needs and keep low-performing students from falling through the cracks. The longitudinal data will also help Nevada school districts track the success of students and meet the standards mandated by NCLB. These data will also provide better information to policy makers who will benefit from having accurate estimates of graduation rates, so they can accurately allocate state funds to areas with the most need. 5

6 References Alliance for Excellent Education, The High Cost of High School Dropouts, What the Nation Pays for Inadequate High Schools, Issue Brief, October 2007, available online at: < WhosCounting.pdf> as of 4/2/09. Pinkus, Lyndsay, Who s Counted? Who s Counting? Understanding High School Graduation Rates, Alliance for Excellent Education, June 2006, available online at: < pdf> as of 5/11/09. Greene, Jay P., Marcus A. Winters, and Christopher B. Swanson, March 2006, Missing the Marks on Graduation Rates, Education Week, available online at:< edweek-missing_the_mark.htm> as of 8/27/09. National Governors Association, Implementing Graduation Counts: State Progress to Date, 2008, available online at: < as of 3/6/09. National Governors Association, States on Track to Report NGA Graduation Rate Data by 2012, News Release, July 2008, available online at: < as of 3/6/09. Prepared by Lynn Bretthorst, MBA Graduate student in the Department of Economics UNLV Heckman, James J. and Paul A. Lafontaine, The Declining American High School Graduation Rate: Evidence, Sources, and Consequences, December 2007, Discussion Paper Series # 3216 for the Institute for the Study of Labor. Heckman, James J. and Paul A. Lafontaine, The Declining American High School Graduation Rate: Evidence, Sources, and Consequences, February 2008, available online at: < index.php?q=node/930> as of 2/13/08. National Governors Association Center for Best Practices, NGA Awards 5.22 Million in Grants to 17 Honor States, Press Release, November 2005, available online at:< nga/menuitem.6c9a8a9ebc6ae07eee28aca a0/?vgnextoid=6c535001ff497010vgnvcm a0 1010aRCRD&vgnextchannel=759b8f Vg nvcm a01010arcrd> as of 5/11/09. 6

7 If you need more specific information about the children and youth in your local area, contact Keith Schwer, PhD, Director of CBER and Executive Director of Nevada KIDSCOUNT or Rennae Daneshvary, PhD, Associate Director of Research and Administration and Nevada KIDS COUNT Coordinator. Phone: (702) Fax: (702) The Center for Business and Economic Research Box , 4505 S. Maryland Parkway Las Vegas, Nevada