High School Graduation Rates in Maryland Technical Appendix

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1 High School Graduation Rates in Maryland Technical Appendix Data All data for the brief were obtained from the National Center for Education Statistics Common Core of Data (CCD). This data represents the school year, which is the most recent year for which graduation rates were available. The CCD provides data that allows for the calculation of district-level averaged freshman graduation rates. Specifically, it provides the number of diplomas that were awarded in the district in a given year, as well as the average number of 8 th, 9 th, and 10 th grade students four years earlier (averaged freshman cohort). The ratio of these two numbers gives the averaged freshman graduation rate. State graduation rates were calculated by adding up the total number of diplomas awarded in each state and dividing by the total averaged freshman cohort size in each state. All public school districts that reported data were used in this analysis. No data were available for any districts in California or Nevada so these states were omitted. Method Predicted graduation rates were constructed using regression analysis. This method is used to estimate the relationship between a set of predictor variables, or covariates, and an outcome variable (in this case, graduation rate). When we do this analysis using every district in the country, we learn how on average changes in a predictor variable might change a district s graduation rate. Once this relationship is estimated, we use actual values of the predictor variables from Maryland school districts to predict graduation rates. For example, if we estimate that each percentage point of a district s percentage of white students is associated with graduation rates that are 0.4 percentage points higher, then if a district were 50 percent white, this would contribute 20 (50 x 0.4) percentage points to that district s predicted graduation rate. The sum of all of these pieces across all predictor variables (some may be negative) gives the predicted graduation rate for a given district. Regressions were run on all public school districts in the country with non-missing data and that had students enrolled in 12 th grade in the school year (i.e., they had students in a position to graduate). The final sample included 9,947 districts. Even with the omission of California and Nevada, this accounts for over 77% of all twelfth grade students in the country (and, in fact, over 77% of all ninth through twelfth grade students). Table 1 presents descriptive statistics for the data in the full sample, as well as for the districts in Maryland. The variables in this table fall into several distinct categories: Race and gender composition of high-school grade students. A long line of research has demonstrated the association between academic performance and race and gender. To capture this relationship we include measures of the percentage of the population of students in a district by race and gender at each high school grade. District-wide student characteristics. These variables capture the characteristics of the entire student body in a district. District-wide measures include the percentage of students in the district by race/ethnicity, and the percentage of students who receive free 1

2 or reduced-price lunch, as well as the overall total number of students, and the number of students in high school (grades 9 through 12). Note that there is some conceptual overlap between these district-wide variables and the variables that describe just high school age students. However, the results of the graduation rate predictions are remarkably similar whether overall district characteristics, district characteristics of high school students, or both sets of variables are included in the model. For the sake of precision, we use both sets of variables. District-wide school characteristics. These variables account for the different types of schools and include the total number of schools in the district, the percentage of schools that qualify as state or federal Title I schools, and the student-teacher ratio in the district, and the amount of total revenue districts receive per student. Other district characteristics. Finally, we account for the total amount of revenue districts have per student, and the location of a district (city, suburb, town). The regression used to estimate the predicted graduation rate regressed the averaged freshman graduation rate on each of the variables listed in Table 1 as well as state fixed effects. These fixed effects work to control for state-level differences in district graduation performance. Table 2 gives the coefficients for the results of this regression. 2

3 Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of the Sample All districts in sample (N=9,947) All districts in Maryland (N=24) Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Averaged freshman graduation rate District percent Native American, grade 9, males District percent Native American, grade 9, females District percent Asian, grade 9, males District percent Asian, grade 9, females District percent Hispanic, grade 9, males District percent Hispanic, grade 9, females District percent Black, grade 9, males District percent Black, grade 9, females District percent White, grade 9, males District percent White, grade 9, females District percent Pacific Islander, grade 9, males District percent Pacific Islander, grade 9, females District percent multiracial, grade 9, males District percent multiracial, grade 9, females District percent Native American, grade 10, males District percent Native American, grade 10, females District percent Asian, grade 10, males District percent Asian, grade 10, females District percent Hispanic, grade 10, males District percent Hispanic, grade 10, females District percent Black, grade 10, males District percent Black, grade 10, females

4 District percent White, grade 10, males District percent White, grade 10, females District percent Pacific Islander, grade 10, males District percent Pacific Islander, grade 10, females District percent multiracial, grade 10, males District percent multiracial, grade 10, females District percent Native American, grade 11, males District percent Native American, grade 11, females District percent Asian, grade 11, males District percent Asian, grade 11, females District percent Hispanic, grade 11, males District percent Hispanic, grade 11, females District percent Black, grade 11, males District percent Black, grade 11, females District percent White, grade 11, males District percent White, grade 11, females District percent Pacific Islander, grade 11, males District percent Pacific Islander, grade 11, females District percent multiracial, grade 11, males District percent multiracial, grade 11, females District percent Native American, grade 12, males District percent Native American, grade 12, females District percent Asian, grade 12, males District percent Asian, grade 12, females District percent Hispanic, grade 12, males District percent Hispanic, grade 12, females

5 District percent Black, grade 12, males District percent Black, grade 12, females District percent White, grade 12, males District percent White, grade 12, females District percent Pacific Islander, grade 12, males District percent Pacific Islander, grade 12, females District percent multiracial, grade 12, males District percent multiracial, grade 12, females District percent Native American District percent Asian District Percent Hispanic District percent Black, District percent White, District percent Pacific Islander District percent multiracial District percent free and reduced-price lunch Number of schools in district Total district enrollment District enrollment, grades Percent federal Title I Schools Percent state Title I Schools District expenditure per student ($) District student-teacher ratio District in city District in suburb District in town

6 Table 2. Estimated Regression Coefficients Variable Estimated Coefficient District percent Native American, grade 9, males District percent Native American, grade 9, females District percent Asian, grade 9, males District percent Asian, grade 9, females District percent Hispanic, grade 9, males District percent Hispanic, grade 9, females District percent Black, grade 9, males District percent Black, grade 9, females District percent White, grade 9, males District percent White, grade 9, females District percent Pacific Islander, grade 9, males District percent Pacific Islander, grade 9, females District percent multiracial, grade 9, males District percent multiracial, grade 9, females District percent Native American, grade 10, males * District percent Native American, grade 10, females * District percent Asian, grade 10, males * District percent Asian, grade 10, females * District percent Hispanic, grade 10, males * District percent Hispanic, grade 10, females * District percent Black, grade 10, males * District percent Black, grade 10, females * District percent White, grade 10, males * District percent White, grade 10, females * District percent Pacific Islander, grade 10, males District percent Pacific Islander, grade 10, females District percent multiracial, grade 10, males District percent multiracial, grade 10, females District percent Native American, grade 11, males District percent Native American, grade 11, females District percent Asian, grade 11, males District percent Asian, grade 11, females District percent Hispanic, grade 11, males District percent Hispanic, grade 11, females District percent Black, grade 11, males District percent Black, grade 11, females District percent White, grade 11, males District percent White, grade 11, females

7 District percent Pacific Islander, grade 11, males * District percent Pacific Islander, grade 11, females District percent multiracial, grade 11, males District percent multiracial, grade 11, females * District percent Native American, grade 12, males * District percent Native American, grade 12, females * District percent Asian, grade 12, males * District percent Asian, grade 12, females District percent Hispanic, grade 12, males * District percent Hispanic, grade 12, females * District percent Black, grade 12, males * District percent Black, grade 12, females District percent White, grade 12, males * District percent White, grade 12, females * District percent Pacific Islander, grade 12, males District percent Pacific Islander, grade 12, females District percent multiracial, grade 12, males District percent multiracial, grade 12, females District percent Native American District percent Asian * District Percent Hispanic District percent Black, * District percent White * District percent Pacific Islander District percent multiracial District percent free and reduced-price lunch * Number of schools in district * Total district enrollment * District enrollment, grades * Percent federal Title I Schools * Percent state Title I Schools * District expenditure per student ($) * District student-teacher ratio District in city * District in suburb * District in town * Intercept * 7