Decision Support System for Large-Scale Evacuation Logistics. Prof. Dr. Horst W. Hamacher
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1 Decision Support System for Large-Scale Evacuation Logistics Prof. Dr. Horst W. Hamacher 10. Europäischer Bevölkerungsschutzkongress September 2014 Bonn Fachforum X: Forschung für die zivile Sicherheit Praxisorientierte Forschung für Einsatz- und Rettungskräfte Funded by German Ministry of Research and Technology Outline 1. Evacuation Scenarios a) Types of evacuation b) Evacuation projects in Kaiserlautern 2. Planning Modules a) Selection of Evacuation Area, Collection and Shelter Points b) Identifying Evacuation Network c) Organisation and Control of Evacuation Traffic I. Bus Traffic II. Individual Traffic d) How do deal with conflicting objectives 3. Conclusion Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 1
2 Evacuation Scenarios Aircraft evacuation All passengers and crew must be evacuated from the aircraft to the ground within 90 seconds (Federal Aviation Administration) Ship evacuation maximum evacuation time is 60 minutes Building evacuation Adherence to evacuation regulations Analysis of existing buildings Design of new buildings Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Evacuation Scenarios Regional evacuation Small emergency planning zone Defined security points Short term evacuation with return Main task: Model pedestrian movement Large-scale evacuation Small and large emergency planning zones Selection of shelters Long term evacuation without immediate return Evacuation logistics Main task: Model evacuation transportation and logistics Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 2
3 Some Goals of Evacuation Planning Evacuation routes Evacuation times (Lower and upper) Bounds for predictions What if questions Evacuation plans and preparation On- and off-line virtual training Locational planning Logistics for evacuee care Information system User-friendly decision support system Incorporate expert knowledge Acceptance of user community Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Evacuation Project EVACNET+ Funded by NSF ( ) Funding for COCO (Center for Optimization and Combinatorics, ) Francis, Hamacher, Kisko, Tufekci University of Florida, USA, and TUKaiserslautern, 2000 Building evacuation: DSS to check evacuation time for high-rise buildings Regional evacuation: DSS for hurrican warning Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 3
4 Recent Projects in Kaiserslautern Regional Evacuation: Planning, Control und Adaptation Funded by German Ministry of Research and Technology Building evacuation (funded by TU Kaiserslautern): Fritz-Walter football stadium Check adherence of evacuation times to FIFA rules Regional evacuation: DSS for evacuating Betzenberg area evacuees Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Recent Projects in Kaiserslautern Regional Evacuation: Planning, Control und Adaptation Funded by German Ministry of Research and Technology Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 4
5 Recent Projects Unterstützung bei der Katastrophenschutzplanung für kerntechnische Anlagen: Evakuierungsplanung funded by Regional evacuation: Evacuating areas around nuclear power plant in Philippsburg, Germany, Hamacher, Ohst, Ruzika, Seipp Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Recent Projects in Kaiserslautern Urban Security Optimization of Location and Layout for Public Events (Standort- und Layoutoptimierung für Sichere Öffentliche Veranstaltungen) (StanLay) Hamacher, Kovtaniuk, Maier Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 5
6 Recent Projects in Kaiserslautern Decision Support System for Large-Scale Evacuation Logistics Joint German-French project funded by Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Recent Projects in Kaiserslautern Decision Support System for Large-Scale Evacuation Logistics Case studies: Plane crash in the city of Earthquake and Submersion Kaiserslautern on the coast of Nice Long term evacuation of a large number of ecacuees Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 6
7 Securing and Visualizing data Large-scale evacuation Small and large emergency planning zones Selection of shelters Long term evacuation without immediate return Evacuation logistics Main task: Model evacuation transportation and logistics Is getting data as easy as drawing circles? No!!! Use public data (e.g. Open Street Maps for street networks) confidential data (e.g. census data) and devolop software tool (VisualFlow) Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Evacuation Area Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 7
8 Evacuation Area (zoomed) Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Evacuation Area (extended) Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 8
9 Available Collection Points Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Selected Collection Points Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 9
10 Available Collection Points Is it simple to choose good collection points? How many options does the planner have? In this example 41 available points, 5 selected points Use mathematical optimization: Locational Planning (Standortplanung) The same holds for the selection of shelters Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Evacuation Area, Collection and Shelter Points Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 10
11 Individual Shelter Information Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Statistics of Data Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 11
12 Identify Street Network Start with information from OpenStreetMap (OMP) Safety is guaranteed by comparing with official security maps, and freezing certified versions of maps Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Identify Street Network Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 12
13 Simplify Street Network VisualFlow_Linearize-Graph Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher From Street Network to Math Network Map: Referat Stadtentwicklung, Stadt Kaiserslautern Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 13
14 From Street Network to Math Network Map: Referat Stadtentwicklung, Stadt Kaiserslautern Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Macroscopic Model Research Topic: Aggregation of networks Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 14
15 Data Selection in VisualFlow Selection of Evacuation Area, Collection and Shelter Points in demo_evacmapp_01 Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Evacuation Traffic (Bus) in VisualFlow Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 15
16 Individual Evacuation Traffic Models are suitable for pedestrian movement, and car movement Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Network Model Detail of network Input: Capacities, Travel Times, (Costs) Model: Persons/Cars corresponds to (dynamic) flow units Idealized assumptions to achieve provably bestpossible evacuation Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 16
17 Dynamic Network Flow Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Dynamic Flows and Time-Expanded Networks time Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 17
18 FlowLoc Develop models for Evacuation + Location of emergency units + Location of commercial facilities Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Identifying Essential Evacuation Streets Usage of streets in 100 runs of software: >75 % <75% <50% < 25% 0% Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 18
19 Dealing with Conflicting Objectives Conflicting objectives, e.g. Cost of evacuation (EvacCost) Evacuation time (Evac-Time) Number of busses (Numb-Bus) Apply tools of multicriteria optimization: Find representative set of Pareto optimal solutions Store these solutions in data base Provide search engine for decision makers to find best solution Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Search engine to find best Pareto solution Evac-Time Evac-Cost Numb-Bus Spider-Web Charts (Kasanen, Östermark, and Zeleny, 1989) Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 19
20 Search engine to find best Pareto solution Evac-Time Evac-Cost Possible evacuation plan taken from data base Numb-Bus Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Search engine to find best Pareto solution Evac-Time Evac-Cost Evacuation plan with improved evacuation cost Numb-Bus Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 20
21 Search engine to find best Pareto solution Evac-Time Evac-Cost Evacuation plan with improved number of shelters Numb-Bus Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Search Engine in VisualFlow VisualFlow: Search Engine Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 21
22 Summary To help evacuation planners Evacuation data is visualized number of evacuees distribution over evacuation area available collection shelter points evacuation network Evacuation transportation is optimized optimal selection of collection points and shelters optimal transport from collection to saftety (bus and individual traffic) (Busy) Evacuation routes are identified Conflicting evacuation objectives are visualized spider diagram Results are tested in (international) case studies Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher Thank you for your attention more information: [email protected] Bevölkerungsschutzkongress, Bonn, September Horst W. Hamacher 22
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