Basic Concept for the Quantitative Assessment of Risks in the Transport of Dangerous Goods
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1 Basic Concept for the Quantitative Assessment of Risks in the Transport of Dangerous Goods Cefic Seminar on Transport Risk Assessment, Brussels, 4 October 2013 Bertram Ostermayer, GUS/D Gernot Knoth, GUS/DT 1
2 General approach Adopted from: PIARC Technical Committee C.4 Road Tunnel Operation: Technical Report Risk Evaluation, Draft Version 5.0_2010 2
3 General approach Risk estimation Risk R I S Definition of the system Hazard identification Incident frequency rate I I (P) Probability analysis Statistical component, function of primal incident probability P Severity of harm caused by the incident S Consequence analysis Potential extent of consequences, e.g. damage to property, environment and persons 3
4 BASF approach Supply scenario Mode Route of transportation Adopted from: PIARC Technical Committee C.4 Road Tunnel Operation: Technical Report Risk Evaluation, Draft Version 5.0_2010 4
5 Master substances and basic incident scenarios Definition of the system Hazard identification Adopted from: BIS Bremerhavener Gesellschaft für Investitionsförderung und Stadtentwicklung mbh, Dezember 2006: Risikoanalyse zum Transport gefährlicher Güter im Trogtunnel Cherbourger Straße 5
6 Severity levels and consequence classes Definition of the system Hazard identification For each master substance: Assignment of incident scenarios to severity levels Adopted from: BIS Bremerhavener Gesellschaft für Investitionsförderung und Stadtentwicklung mbh, Dezember 2006: Risikoanalyse zum Transport gefährlicher Güter im Trogtunnel Cherbourger Straße 6
7 Severity levels and consequence classes Definition of the system Hazard identification For each master substance: Evaluation of the severity levels by consequence classes for different indicators of damage Adopted from: BIS Bremerhavener Gesellschaft für Investitionsförderung und Stadtentwicklung mbh, Dezember 2006: Risikoanalyse zum Transport gefährlicher Güter im Trogtunnel Cherbourger Straße CONFIDENTIAL 7
8 BASF approach Supply scenario Master substances Mode Route of transportation Severity levels Consequence classes Adopted from: PIARC Technical Committee C.4 Road Tunnel Operation: Technical Report Risk Evaluation, Draft Version 5.0_2010 8
9 Modeling of consequences Consequence analysis For each master substance: Assignment of incident scenarios to severity levels.... Evaluation of the severity levels by consequence classes for different indicators of damage Adopted from: BIS Bremerhavener Gesellschaft für Investitionsförderung und Stadtentwicklung mbh, Dezember 2006: Risikoanalyse zum Transport gefährlicher Güter im Trogtunnel Cherbourger Straße 9
10 BASF approach Supply scenario Master substances Mode Route of transportation Severity levels Consequence classes Event tree analysis Adopted from: PIARC Technical Committee C.4 Road Tunnel Operation: Technical Report Risk Evaluation, Draft Version 5.0_
11 Event tree analysis (Risk estimation) Event tree analysis Basic input to compare different routes for the same mode of transport and the same cargo, where the extent of consequences of an incident is considered to be similar Further details necessary to compare scenarios with different products to be shipped and Mode of Transport different modes of transport normalized on transport kilometer 11
12 Risk estimation Probability analysis Consequence analysis Master Substance normalized on transport kilometer CONFIDENTIAL 12
13 Farmer diagram to visualize the risk profile Risk estimation Display of the risk profile in the Farmer diagram, i.e. the cumulative incident frequency rate per year vs. the consequence classes I (S) The risk profile illustrates the distribution of consequences and differentiates between highfrequency, low consequence incidents and low-frequency, high consequence incidents i k I i ik (S ik S) 13
14 Farmer diagram to visualize the risk profile Risk estimation Estimation of the consequences specific for the master substance: Petrol, UN1203 (3,II), F1 Severity level 1 Severity level 2 Severity level 3 Severity level 4 14
15 Farmer diagram to visualize the risk profile Risk estimation Estimation of the consequences specific for the master substance: Petrol, UN1203 (3,II), F1 Propane, UN1978 (2.1), 2F Chlorine, UN1017 ( ), 2TC Estimation of the consequences specific for the benchmark substance: EO, UN1040 ( ), 2TF 15
16 BASF approach Supply scenario Master substances Mode Route of transportation Severity levels Consequence classes Event tree analysis Risk profile Collective risk Adopted from: PIARC Technical Committee C.4 Road Tunnel Operation: Technical Report Risk Evaluation, Draft Version 5.0_
17 Risk estimation Risk evaluation Supply Scenario specific on route and frequency of shipments CONFIDENTIAL 17
18 Risk evaluation Risk evaluation Comparison of the risk profiles of different supply scenarios of Benzene (Master substance: Petrol) via road transportation with the transportation of EO by rail as a benchmark (B) Threshold lines indicating the level of transportation risks excepted by company, business partners or society (tentative!), based on the ALARP principle adopted from risk evaluations for road tunnels (PIARC Technical Committee C.4 Road Tunnel Operation: Technical Report Risk Evaluation, Draft Version 5.0_2010) unacceptable unacceptable acceptable acceptable 18
19 Farmer diagram vs. Collective risk Display of the risk profile (cumulative incident frequency rate) Calculation of the collective Risk (long-term average number of statistically expected consequences) I (S) i Risk evaluation k I i ik (S ik S) R i Ii ik ( S ik ) k S ik S i2 S i3 S i4 I i i 2 (S i2 ) I i i 3 (S i3 ) I i i 4 (S i4 ) 19
20 Collective risk Risk evaluation Evaluation and comparison of the collective risk specific for each supply scenario [1/year] However, expressing risk in terms of a single number may conceal and obscure important aspects of the specific risk profile, i.e. incidents with very low probability / very high consequences only contribute to a minor extent to the expected value. 20
21 BASF approach Supply scenario Master substances Mode Route of transportation Severity levels Consequence classes Event tree analysis Risk profile Collective risk Adopted from: PIARC Technical Committee C.4 Road Tunnel Operation: Technical Report Risk Evaluation, Draft Version 5.0_
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