3 Ofﬁce Report March 2015 Centre of National & International Tourism 2nd MICE destination in Poland (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, Events) s Old Town on the UNESCO World Heritage List 9,9 mln turists in 2014 preliminary data: Małopolska Organizacja Turystyczna Variety of shopping and leisure centres Wide residential and hotel base Prominent Location & Convenient Access 2nd busiest airport in Poland (3,8 million passengers served in % growth y-o-y); potential airport capacity of 8 mln passengers per year after terminal extension planned in H Regular ﬂight connections with Europe, the US and Asia A-1 Well-placed at international roads to Germany, Ukraine, Slovakia, The Czech Republic, towards the Baltic sea Gdańsk Olsztyn Szczecin A-6 Białystok Bydgoszcz Toruń Gorzów Wielkopolski Extensive national and international railway network; fast railway connections (Warsaw-: 2.5 hours) Poznań Warszawa A-2 A-2 Zielona Góra Łódź A-18 A-4 Wrocław Balice airport railway line Lublin Kielce Opole A-8 Katowice A-1 Rzeszów A-4 Fast City Tram Top Rated Business Destination "A-" credit rating by Standard&Poor s (highest possible score for administration unit) 2nd best attractive area for technology advanced businesses in Poland 2nd Polish city of the future, behind Warsaw according to: The Institute for Market Economics, The attractiveness of voivodships and subregions in Poland, 2014 according to: fdi Intelligence, Fdi s Polish Cities of the Future 2015/16 1
4 Ofﬁce Report March 2015 Highest Quality Labour Force Over 1m illio np eo ple 760,700 ~ 300,000 Residents Commuters 3.37 million Małopolskie Voivodship 13% of population in pre-productive age Population Proﬁle Young 66% of population in productive age Source: Central Statistical Ofﬁce, 2013 STUDENTS AND GRADUATES IN POPULATION OF KRAKÓW UNEMPLOYMENT BY LEVEL OF EDUCATION 170,500 students 34% with post-secondary and secondary degree 24,700 47,200 graduates unemployed 24% with university degree Educated Source: Central Statistical Ofﬁce, 2013 Warsaw ENGINEERING STUDENTS IN POLAND S LARGEST CITIES 18,700 17,600 Wrocław 16,800 Tri-City 12,500 Poznań 10,300 Metropolia Silesia 9,300 Łódź Highly Specialised 0 Source: Central Statistical Ofﬁce, 2013 FOREIGN LANGUAGE PROFICIENCY AMONG STUDENTS IN KRAKÓW 6, % % 8.2% 9.0% 5.9% Russian Spanish Italian 95.1% 80% 60% 36.7% 40% 20% With above average knowledge of languages 0% Source: Bilans Kapitału Ludzkiego, 2013 English German French 2
5 Ofﬁce Report March 2015 Specialised Economy Geared Towards Innovation, IT, R+D Strong academic and R&D focus Centre for Innovation, Technology Transfer and University Development Technology Transfer Centre Jagiellonian Center of Innovation National Science Centre 23 higher education institutions, incl. 5 universities Innovative Technologies Cluster (MINATECH) Life Science Cluster Informative Technology Cluster Clean Energy Cluster European Games Centre Close business-science cooperation Special Economic Zone specialising in innovative projects Tax relief SEZ in numbers: 27 subzones Comprehensive investment services 45 permits in 2014 Land for construction 1,700 new workpaces in 2014 Ofﬁce space for lease 17,000 since the start of SEZ Established Location for Business Service Sector EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS SERVICES SECTOR IN KRAKÓW + 10% ,600 33, No. 1 locally as leader in employment in the business service sector (centres with foreign capital) in both Poland and the whole of CEE, according to: Association of Business Service Leaders in Poland (ABSL), Apr 2014 Dec 2014 AVERAGE MONTHLY SALARIES (EUR GROSS) IN SSC/BPO SECTOR IN KRAKÓW Position (only English required) Junior GL Accountant GL Accountant GL Team Leader st 1 line IT Support Oracle Administrator (5 yrs of experience) Java Developer (3-5 yrs of experience) SHARE OF KRAKÓW IN TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN FOREIGN SERVICES CENTRES IN POLAND Salary Min Max 810 1,050 1,860 1,160 1,390 2, ,000 1,050 3,300 1,860 3,020 Source: Hays Poland, January 2015 Exchange rate: EUR = 4.3 PLN 24% No. 9 globally Source: Association of Business Service Leaders in Poland (ABSL), 2014 as ninth best global investment location for BPO/SSC sector, according to: 2015 Top 100 Outsourcing Destinations, Tholons Institutions supporting the sector: ABSL, ASPIRE 3
6 Ofﬁce Report March 2015 Ofﬁce Market Summary on the Polish Ofﬁce Map EXISTING OFFICE STOCK as of Q UNDER CONSTRUCTION OFFICE STOCK as of Q % GROSS TAKE-UP VOLUME in % 33% Total: 7,387,600 Total*: 444,600 Total: 1,394,500 * Regional ofﬁce markets, excl. Warsaw 12 MONTHS FORECAST 2014 Supply OFFICE STOCK 2014 COMPLETIONS 92,000 m2 GROSS TAKE-UP NET TAKE-UP AVERAGE DEAL SIZE 145,000 m2 108,000 m 990 m2 NO OF OPTIONS ABOVE 2,000 m2 UNDER CONSTRUCTION OFFICE STOCK Existing buildings Under construction buildings PRIME HEADLINE RENTS 5 additional Leased Area Delphi Enterprise Park D 5,800 m2 Nokia Siemens Network Bobrzyńskiego 46 5,500 m2 Electrolux Onyx 5,000 m2 Grupa Onet Alma Tower 4,600 m2 Sab Miller Kapelanka 42 4,400 m2 AON Hewitt Diamante Plaza 4,400 m2 10,500 m % /m2/month Typical incentives package: months rent free on Technical standard Kapelanka ,000 m2 OCCUPATION STATUS Rents Building HSBC 6% 39,800 m2 VACANCY RATE VACANT STOCK EXISTING STOCK Pipeline Tenant 2 Demand Vacancy 659,000 m2 LARGEST LEASE TRANSACTIONS IN year term and/ or ﬁt-out contribution MAJOR OFFICE COMPLETIONS IN 2014 Kapelanka 29,000 m2 Enterprise Park II (bldg. C) 13,600 m2 Quattro Business Park D 12,000 m2 Avia 10,900 m2 Alma Tower 10,400 m2 New developments featuring A class ofﬁce standards: 4
7 Office Report March 2015 Office Market Business confidence in firms up Momentum is building in, with take-up levels in 2014 at their highest ever. Gross leasing volume totalled around 145,000 m 2, up some 35% on the take-up in 2012 (107,000 m 2 ), which now becomes the second highest figure on record. This take-up accounted for 33% of total occupier demand last year in the major cities in Poland (excluding Warsaw). However, it is worth noting that such unprecedented take-up volume was underpinned by the limited quality choice for large space users who wished to start operations in the city in The figure also mirrors the increased migration of occupiers already present on the office market actively reviewing their accommodation strategies during 2014, both in terms of increased standard and size. take-up further supported by the increasing availability of large-space options expected in 2015 and First choice destination for the global services sector continues to establish its reputation as the leading Polish and European location for global shoring and outsourcing services. Over the past few months, it has secured 14 new foreign investors from this sector, the largest number by any office market in Poland, including GE Healthcare, Lundbeck, RWE, Getinge Group and Samsung. Share of BPO/SSC in total take-up volume in % 80% 60% 40% 200,000 80% 20% 150, ,000 60% 40% 0% Wrocław Łódź Katowice Tri-City Poznań 50,000 0 Source: JLL, Q Net take-up Renewals % pre-let share in new leases volume 20% Large occupiers led the way with a healthy take-up of office space in 2014; the market saw more than 40 lease agreements of over 1,000 m 2 accounting for some 76% of total take-up volume. Around 70% of leasing activity in 2014 (approximately 99,000 m 2 ) was new leases, with about 41,000 m 2 of that being pre-lets. Almost a quarter of gross take-up (around 37,000 m 2 ) was by companies that decided to remain in their current offices (lease renewals) and 6% (around 9,000 m 2 ) by those that moved into the growth mode and extended their current premises, such as Hitachi Data Systems, Brown Brothers Harriman, HSBC or Google, to name but a few. We believe that the city will not lose ground in 2015 in the fierce competition between the regional office markets for potential occupiers of office space, as leasing enquires remain strong and there are several significant office requirements exceeding 10,000 m 2. The positive leasing perspective will be 0% Source: JLL, Q Similarly to previous years, this sector continues to be the driving force behind the demand for modern office space. In total it generated around 69% of all registered take-up in Construction activity to maintain a steep growth path Sound occupier demand has strengthened developer confidence in Krakow, as demonstrated by the 92,000 m 2 of space which was added to stock in 2014 (against the five-year average of 54,000 m 2 ), and the additional 154,000 m 2 currently under development (nearly a quarter of existing office stock). Office completions and vacancy rate in 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Source: JLL, Q F 2016 F Completions (m²) Vacancy Rate (%) F- estimated realistic supply 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 5
8 Wrocław Tri-City Katowice Poznań Łódź Szczecin Lublin Office Report March 2015 By the end of 2015, new office completion is expected to total 116,000 m 2. The realistic pipeline for 2016 is 90,000 m 2. The changing skyline Due to its historic character, the city centre in has not been regarded as a modern office destination, with the majority office accommodation located in small, redeveloped tenement houses. The city centre s skyline is, however, about to change considerably over the next few years, with the areas around Rondo Mogilskie and Rondo Grzegórzeckie looking set to become the new central business district. Three largescale office projects, i.e. K1 (the redevelopment of the former Cracovia Business Center), Aleja Pokoju 5 and Axis, totalling 47,000 m 2 will be delivered in 2015 and H1 2016, with more signs of further commitment to speculative development in the neighbourhood in (e.g. the TreiMorfa mixed-used building). Outside the city centre, considerable construction activity can be found at the further extensions of existing office projects, such as Quattro Business Park FIVE, Bonarka 4 Business, Enterprise Park, Jasnogórska II and Orange Office Park will see the delivery of the first buildings in two newly established office complexes: Opolska Business Park and DOT Office. As well as the above-mentioned, has also a number of significant development opportunities, including several largescale office parks in Czyżyny, Bronowice or Podgórze, with a total development potential exceeding 200,000 m 2. Remarkably, in the long-term perspective the city authorities intend to transform the areas of Nowa Huta, Płaszów-Rybitwy and Balice, which, according to the urban plan, will potentially mix commercial development, particularly logistics and office. The initiatives are, however, strongly conditioned by improvements to the transport infrastructure. Gradual transition into a tenant market saw the pace of absorption speeding up notably, with only 10% of the 92,000 m 2 of office space that entered the market in 2014 remaining unoccupied. The vacancy rate at the end of Q averaged 6% (up by 1 pp from year-end 2013), the lowest nationwide, and equated to 39,800 m 2 of available space, which was scattered across 41 office buildings. This indicates that, similarly to the situation observed in 2012 and 2013, larger requirements in 2014 had to follow the pre-let route. However, we expect a gradual transition into a tenant market, given the extensive development pipeline underway (around 116,000 m 2 of the under construction office stock is currently available for lease), which will drive the vacancy rate up. The first significant increase in the rate is anticipated in Q Vacant space in existing and under construction stock 200, , ,000 50,000 0 Source: JLL, Q More generous approach towards fit-out compares favourably with other regional office markets in terms of rents, remaining at a similar level to those in Wrocław and non-central locations in Warsaw. Prime headline rents in the city have held firm over 2014 and vary between 13.9 and 14.5 / m 2 / month. The higher rental band applies to prime, centrally located office projects. Prime headline rents ( / m 2 / month) Source: JLL, Q Q Q Q Q Q Vacancy in Buildings Under Construction (m²) Vacancy in Existing Buildings (m²) Incentives continue to be important and usually include three to five months rent free on a five-year term and/or an additional fit-out contribution. We expect the prime headline rents to remain stable as 2015 progresses, with slight downward pressures possible in buildings offering large vacant space. The pressure is, however, more likely to be reflected in more generous incentive levels rather than reductions in headline rents. 6
9 Ofﬁce Report March 2015 Major ofﬁce projects under construction 2 Building Investor m Axis Skanska 21,600 Echo Investment 19,200 Grupa Buma 13,000 K1 (under redevelopment) Pramerica 12,300 Jasnogórska II Mix Biura 12,000 Opolska Business Park I Aleja Pokoju 5 Bonarka 4 Business F TriGranit Development Polska 10,000 Quattro Business Park FIVE Grupa Buma 8,700 DOT Ofﬁce A Grupa Buma 7,400 Enterprise Park D Avestus Real Estate Poland, QPG Balticts 5,800 As of February
10 Ofﬁce Report March 2015 Map of Major Ofﬁce Developments in SZ KU OL ÓR OG SN KATOWICE S7 SK A CH RZ AN ÓW PA ST E RN IK J. CO 26 4 OPOLSKA NRAD A GEN. L. OK KIEGO ROWS BORA KOMO SKM Balice IET L A DR. IC KO. PO J U AL OJ POK AL. J 6 H. KAM IEŃS KIEGO 10 S7 WIE L IC KA OPI AŃS K A A4 ZAK TA GD RNÓ ÓW W ZAK OPA NE O ŚW IĘ CI M SKO RZE EB NOW S KI E GO KIE ŃS ZY BR BO A4 ICKIE GO NIA Z CH SĄC BO WY NO N OP KO N Ó EZFA IA J KSIĘC UL 4U J. D A4 KIELC E OM LBR WO JA 18 A AW SZ AR W PR O SZ O W IC E As of February 2015 Planned Roads Major Existing Office Buildings Major Under Construction Office Buildings Alma Tower Avatar Avia Azbud Office Center Bonarka 4 Business A,B,C,D,E Buma Square Business Park Diamante Plaza Enterprise Park A,B,C Etiuda Euromarket Office Center Fronton Green Office A,B,C GTC Office Complex (Galileo, Newton, Edison, Pascal) Jasnogórska I K1 (under refurbishment) Kapelanka A,B Kazimierz Office Center Business Park Zabierzów Lubicz Office Center I,II ONYX Orange Office Park I&II Portus Rondo Business Park Office Complex in Special Economic Zone, incl. Centrum Biznesu i Innowacji Copernicus Quattro Business Park A,B,C,D Vinci Aleja Pokoju 5 AXIS Bonarka 4 Business F Opolska Business Park I Quattro Business Park FIVE Enterprise Park D Jasnogórska II DOT Office A Regent Office G.O. Center 8
12 Rafał Oprocha Anna Młyniec Anna Bartoszewicz-Wnuk Jakub Sylwestrowicz Head of Office Head of Office Agency Head of Research Head of Tenant Representation Poland Poland Poland Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating this proposal. All such documentation and information remains the property of Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be kept confidential. Reproduction of any part of this document is authorized only to the extent necessary for its evaluation. It is not to be shown to any third party without the prior written authorization of Jones Lang LaSalle. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof.
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