How To Manage A War Effort

Transcription

1 Managing Risks Leads to Successful Schedule Crashing..and Victory! April 18, 2015 Mr. Roberto Bobby Lago, PMP

2 In Memoriam to the men & women of the American Merchant Marine and the United States Naval Armed Guard who sailed in harm s way in Liberty Ships during World War II and who did not return.. and to The Greatest Generation that saved the World from Tyranny!

3 Project Management Process Groups: Initiating Planning Executing Monitoring & Controlling Closing Project Knowledge Areas: Integration Management Scope Management Time Management Cost Management Quality Management HR Management Communications Management Risk Management (so dear to my ) Procurement Management Stakeholder Management

4 ISSUE War Raging in Europe & Pacific Winds of War heading to USA Need for increased mobility for troops and cargo carriers to war zones Germany Expanding and invading Poland, Africa, and Annexing neighbor countries. Invasion of France, Britain under fire. Germany scoring victories May June 1940 Empire of Japan taking over Pacific Rim Sphere of Influence (since 1936) Great Britain losing warships and transports to German U Boats Need to replace loses rapidly and inexpensively Numerous stakeholders and competing requirement Shipbuilding methodology in USA is cumbersome and in state of flux in 1940 adding complexity

5 Project Management Process and Knowledge Areas Applied in the War Effort: Project objective-produce war components Keep Cost-Schedule-Functional Product (Scope) Control Expectations of Stakeholders Develop New Techniques to Streamline Production One Shot Efforts (with catastrophic results for failure!) Bottom Line Projects/Programs MUST be managed Smartly, Aggressively, Efficiently and Effectively to obtain VICTORY!

6 TO SUPPORT THE WAR EFFORT.. U.S. will require a significant shipbuilding program. Industrial output must meet requirements, war demands and outperform enemy war production. New Techniques must be developed to control cost and meet schedule demands. New Technologies must /will be developed. (High Risk Area)

7 Remember?... Risk Characteristics A definable event Probability (Likelihood) of occurrence Impact (Consequence) of occurrence A risk event that has materialized i.e. became a reality is a PROBLEM (an ISSUE for PMBOK )

8 What is Risk? Start Completion Data History Current Experience Hindsight Information General Uncertainty Specific Uncertainty Total Certainty Risk Unknown Unknowns Known Unknowns 8 Knowns

9 Remember?... Sources of Risk Seek to CONTROL the Internal and INFLUENCE the External Economy Acts of God Technical Industrial Base External Policy Changes Macro-Management Regulatory Requirements Creep Personnel Schedule Internal Costs Budget Customers Integration Communication Constructive Change Scope Changes Micro-Management Teamwork Labor Force Acts of Congress 9

10 Remember?... Characteristics of Risk Events (continued) Magnitude dependent The greater the payoff, the more the risk is acceptable The higher the impact, the more significant the risk Value based Personal and cultural values affect company risk taking Company values affect individual choices Everyone sees risk differently

11 Do Not Forget!...The Nature of Risk Probability of Failure (P f ) Probability of success THREAT OPPORTUNITY Consequence of Failure (C f ) Benefit of success (the Consequence) Note: Failure to properly control the risk.. The Balance of Risk

12 Do Not Forget!... The Nature of Risk Probability of Failure (P f ) Probability of Success THREAT OPPORTUNITY Consequence of Failure (C f ) Benefit of success (the Consequence) The Balance of Risk Question: Why should you take a risk? Answer #1: To gain a specific reward! Answer #2: Sometimes you don t have a choice!

13 Probability and Impact (Matrix) 5 4 Samples HIGH HIGH MODERATE MODERATE LOW LOW Risk vis a vis Opportunity

14 The Theory of Constraints (TOC) A management philosophy introduced by Eliyahu M. Goldratt in his 1984 book titled The Goal Theory of Constraints is a management paradigm that views any manageable system as being limited in achieving more of its goals by a very small number of constraints. There is always at least one constraint, and TOC uses a focusing process to identify the constraint and restructure the rest of the organization around it. TOC adopts the common idiom "a chain is no stronger than its weakest link." This means that processes, organizations, etc., are vulnerable because the weakest person or part can always damage or break them or at least adversely affect the outcome.

15 The Theory of Constraints (TOC) A management philosophy introduced by Eliyahu M. Goldratt in his 1984 book titled The Goal Assuming the goal of a system has been articulated and its measurements defined, the steps are: 1. Identify the system's constraint(s). 2. Decide how to exploit the system's constraint(s). 3. Subordinate everything else to the above decision(s). 4. Elevate the system's constraint(s). 5. Warning! If in the previous steps a constraint has been broken, go back to step 1, but do not allow inertia to cause a system's constraint. If it adds no value to the goal, it is WASTE!

16 AMONG SHIPS DESIRED TRANSPORT AND CARGO SHIPS. The U.S. Answer The Liberty Ship SS Jeremiah O Brian (Hull No. 0806) SS John W. Brown (Hull No. 0312)

17 The Liberty Ship can be traced to a design proposed by the British in Seeking to replace wartime losses, the British placed contracts with US shipyards for 60 steamers of the Ocean class. These steamers were of a simple design and featured a single coal fired 2,500 horsepower reciprocating steam engine. While the coal fired reciprocating steam engine was obsolete, it was reliable and Britain possessed a large supply of coal. While the British ships were being constructed, the US Maritime Commission examined the design and made alterations to lessen cost and speed construction.

18 Liberty Ship Specifications: Displacement: 14,245 tons Length: 441 ft. 6 in. Beam: 56 ft in. Draft: 27 ft in. Propulsion: Two oil fired boilers, triple expansion steam engine, single screw, 2500 horsepower Speed: 11 knots Range: 11,000 miles Complement: 41 Stern mounted 4 in (102 mm) deck gun, variety of antiaircraft armament Capacity: 9,140 tons Last at least 5 years, cost $2M

19 The Problem Solver - Henry J. Kaiser The United States Maritime Commission for merchant shipping came to American industrialist Henry J. Kaiser for his expertise in Complex Program and Project Management to help meet the construction goals set by the Merchant Marine Act of Kaiser was known for building the Bay Bridge and the Hoover Dam, Kaiser pioneered many new production and construction techniques to increase /maximize efficiency at work sites. Henry J Kaiser did not know shipbuilding.

20 The Problem Solver - Henry J. Kaiser (Cont.) Establishes Kaiser Shipbuilding Company shipbuilding company around Develops new shipbuilding techniques: Welding To Replace Riveting. Temperature Control Of Materials. Assembly Line Styled Yards. Builds Infrastructure to support production: Daycare And Schools To Support Women Workforce. OJT Program To Gain Required Expertise Establish Rail And Ferry Services To Interlink Yards, Housing And Workforce. Healthcare (Today s Kaiser Permanente) Kaiser ranked 20th among United States corporations in the value of wartime production contracts!

21 In early 1941, the US Maritime Commission placed an order for 260 ships of the Liberty design (60 were for Britain). With the implementation of the Lend Lease Program in March, orders more than doubled. New Shipbuilding cannot use/detract, or interfere with existing shipyards!

22 Project Bottlenecks (BN)! (Theory of Constraints) are also Risks!: Material Availability Speed of Weld and Assembly Availability of Facilities

23 Risk Management at its Best! Major Risks: Speed of Delivery Through Innovations/Agile/Lean-6-Sigma Management: Builds seven major shipbuilding yards located on the U.S. west coast during World War II. Four of the Kaiser Shipyards were located in the San Francisco Bay. Together, these four Kaiser Shipyards produced 747 ships, including many of the famous Liberty ships and Victory ships, more than any other complex in the United States. To meet the demands of this construction program, new yards were established on both coasts and in the Gulf of Mexico. (BN) The first ships required about 230 days to build (SS Patrick Henry took 244 days), but the average eventually dropped to 42 days.

24 Risk Management at its Best! Major Risks (Continued): Cost Control Through Technology Development and Insertion A new practice, the use of welding decreased labor costs and required fewer skilled workers. Speeded construction (same ship riveted would take 3 X more time on average). Welding techniques developed for changes in temperature/ Lower loss of materials. Sections built in different areas in yard to maximize yard throughput and brought together for assembly. (BN) Under $2M USD Functional meeting requirements/specifications Uses the British baseline design of the Ocean class steamer. (Opportunity!) Revised design was classified EC2-S-C1 and featured oil-fired boilers. (Opportunity W/associated risks!!) The most significant change was to replace much of the riveting with welded seams.

25 Risk Management at its Best! Major Risks (Continued): Functional meeting requirements/specifications Uses other production line methods and adapts them to shipyard. Adapts work schedules and increase throughput. Applies technology maturity where possible. Keeping stakeholder interest/public support Due to their plain looks, the Liberty Ships initially had a poor public image. To combat this, the Maritime Commission dubbed September 27, 1941, as "Liberty Fleet Day" and launched the first 14 vessels. In his speech at the launch ceremony, Pres. Franklin Roosevelt cited Patrick Henry's famed speech and stated that the ships would bring liberty to Europe. (Hence Liberty Ship ) In November 1942, one of Kaiser's Richmond yards built Liberty Ship S.S. Robert E. Peary in 4 days, 15 hours, and 29 minutes!

26 Risk Management at its Best! Major Risks (Continued): Man power/ skills Welded seams required new training therefore shipyard had its training program to teach welding as they built. (BN) Kaiser recruited from across the United States to work in his yards, hiring women and minorities. Created Shipyard-Railway services in S.F. Bay area to move workforce. Keeping Raw Material for construction Kaiser acquired Steel mills, exclusive contracts with mines, held scrap metal drives, secured /built ferries and secured train lines to keep materials flowing into yards. (BN) Shifted resources between yards (Agile concepts) (BN) Healthcare/welfare of employees Kaiser established clinics, day cares, contracted/established hospitals (Kaiser Permanente Health Care System is this creation)

27 Assembly Line Styled Shipyard

28 Assembly Line Styled Shipyard

29 Assembly Line Styled Shipyard Day 2 Day 6 Day 10 Day 14 Day 24 Day 2 : Laying of the keel plates. Day 6 : Bulkheads and girders below the second deck are in place. Day 10 : Lower deck being completed and the upper deck amidships erected. Day 14 : Upper deck erected and mast houses and the after-deck house in place. Day 24 : Ship ready for launching.

30 The Standard Schedule? Crash the Schedule! Day 0 Keel Laid Assembly Line Production Avg. 42 Days Day 230 Standard Projection Start Build Completed Ship, Prod. Line Completed Ship Record Build 4 Days - 15 Hours - 29 Minutes Kaiser Shipyards Average Completed Ship Build 28 Days! Assembly Line Time Reduction: 188 Days = 82%! Record Build: 88.9% Reduction from Assy. Line Production, 98% from Standard Build!

31 The Standard Schedule? Crash the Schedule.and Cost! Start Build Cost $2,114,000 $2M Completed Ship, Prod. Line Avg. Cost Day 0 Keel Laid Kaiser Shipyards Average Completed Ship Cost $1,543,000 Stick-Built Cost $2,099,000 USD Average Production Line Cost: $2,000,000 = 4.71% Reduction Kaiser Shipbuilding Cost : $1,543,000 = 23% Reduction (26% from Standard Build!)

32 Over the next four years, U.S. shipyards would produce 2,751 Liberty Ships

33 PROJECT COMPLETION RESULTS Kaiser built 1,490 ships, 27 percent of the total Maritime Commission construction. Nationally, the average construction time was 42 days and by 1943, three Liberty Ships were being completed each day. Kaiser's ships were completed in two-thirds the time and a quarter the cost of the average of all other shipyards. Liberty ships were typically assembled in a little over two weeks at a Kaiser Yard. Kaiser also produced the Casablanca-class escort carriers. Kaiser production line techniques for shipbuilding were adapted into shipyard production still used today.

34 PROJECT COMPLETION RESULTS (CONT.) Project objective-produce war components Keep Cost-Schedule-Functional Product (Scope) Control Expectations of Stakeholders Develop New Techniques to Streamline Production One Shot Efforts (with catastrophic results for failure!) Bottom Line Goal Met! VICTORY!

35 Liberty Ship Shipyards: Alabama Drydock and Shipbuilding, Mobile, Alabama Bethlehem Fairfield Shipyard, Baltimore, Maryland California Shipbuilding Corp., Los Angeles, California Delta Shipbuilding Corp., New Orleans, Louisiana J. A. Jones, Panama City, Florida J. A. Jones, Brunswick, Georgia Kaiser Company, Vancouver, Washington Marinship, Sausalito, California New England Shipbuilding East Yard, South Portland, Maine New England Shipbuilding West Yard, South Portland, Maine North Carolina Shipbuilding Company, Wilmington, North Carolina Oregon Shipbuilding Corporation, Portland, Oregon Richmond Shipyards, Richmond, California St. Johns River Shipbuilding, Jacksonville, Florida Southeastern Shipbuilding, Savannah, Georgia Todd Houston Shipbuilding, Houston, Texas Walsh Kaiser Co., Inc., Providence, Rhode Island

36 QUESTIONS? 36