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1 5(6($5&+5( $/± 7KHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKH970,6V\VWHP IRUWKH*XOIRI)LQODQG Formal Safety Assessment study Customer: 0LQLVWU\RI7UDQVSRUWDQG &RPPXQLFDWLRQVDQG)LQQLVK 0DULWLPH$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ 9777(&+1,&$/5(6($5&+&(175(2)),1/$1' VTT INDUSTRIAL SYSTEMS

2 2 (101) A Work report B Public research report Research report, X confidential to Title The implementation of the VTMIS system for the Gulf of Finland Formal Safety Assessment study Customer or financing body and order date/no. Research report No. Ministry of Transport and Communications VAL Finnish Maritime Administration Project Project No. GOFFSA V1SU00674 Author(s) No. of pages/appendices Saara Hänninen, Tapio Nyman, Jorma Rytkönen, Tony 101 / 102 Rosqvist, Sanna Sonninen and Risto Tuominen, VTT Industrial Systems, Mikko Juva, Risto Jalonen, Anna Palonen and Kaj Riska HUT Ship Laboratory Keywords Formal Safety Assessment, VTMIS, Gulf of Finland, maritime safety, marine transportation, marine environment Summary The FSA study reported here has been carried out by VTT Industrial Systems as commissioned by the Finnish Ministry of Transport and Communications and the Finnish Maritime Administration. During the study process, VTT Industrial Systems has been co-operating with HUT (Helsinki University of Technology) Ship Laboratory in matters related to winter conditions. The results of the study have been adopted by the contracting governments of Estonia, Finland and Russia. The aim of this FSA study was to assess the effectiveness of the proposed routeing, monitoring and mandatory reporting systems as measures to improve maritime safety in the Gulf of Finland by reducing the risk of casualties and increasing the protection of the marine environment. The systems proposed for implementation in the Gulf of Finland were assumed to operate as described in NAV 48/3/xx ANNEX 3. The present FSA study was focused on the ship-to-ship collision risk. Based on experience, this represents the dominant risk type for the open sea traffic considered in this study. Furthermore, only the risk of oil, chemical or gas tankers colliding with the other types of vessels, or with each other, was included in the present assessment. The risk assessment described here was carried out in the context of the prevailing traffic projection estimated for the years 2010 to The estimates for the total number of vessel calls and the relative proportions of different ship types, was extrapolated from the current traffic numbers using the scenarios of the various commercial stakeholders and recent studies carried out for the Gulf of Finland area. The risk impacts of two different risk control options (RCO) were of special interest in the present study, i.e., System1 consisting of a mandatory reporting system, and System2 consisting of a mandatory reporting system and a radar-based monitoring system. Both options also include the proposed amended routeing system for the Gulf of Finland. These options were compared to the Baseline option with no additional investments to vessel traffic control in the gulf area. The risk modelling framework used in the present study was based on the GRACAT 9777(&+1,&$/5(6($5&+&(175(2)),1/$1' VTT INDUSTRIAL SYSTEMS Tekniikantie 12, Espoo P.O. Box 1705, FIN VTT FINLAND Tel Fax name.surname@vtt.fi Business ID

3 3 (101) software, which estimates collision frequencies based on traffic data including vessel types, route information, predicted traffic intensities, etc., and the interaction of operative functions, the failure of which lead to the realisation of the collision hazards. The calculations needed to estimate the collision frequencies were performed using the GRACAT software. The cost-benefit performance of the RCOs was assessed in terms of the total return of the investment, and the main uncertainties in the analysis were identified. As the consequences of collisions were measured in monetary terms only, the absolute risk criteria, such as the ALARP principle (As Low As Reasonably Practicable), were not feasible in judging the relative merits of the decision options. Also, the evaluation of the acceptability of the absolute level of risk represented by the Baseline option, turned out unfeasible in this sense. Both risk control options assessed in this study were found to decrease the risk of ship-to-ship collisions, and thus to be capable of improving the safety of shipping and protecting the marine environment in the Gulf of Finland. From an economic point of view, the investment in the risk control option System2 can be recommended based on the cost-benefit analysis conducted for the options (or meanvariance portfolio analysis, to be more specific). The investment in System1 is deemed economically unprofitable, as the expected total return is very low for this option. The outcome of the present FSA study clearly indicates that the implementation of the proposed routing, mandatory reporting and radar-based monitoring systems in the Gulf of Finland is highly recommendable. The operation of such VTMIS system can be expected to significantly reduce the risk of collisions. Furthermore, the positive effect of the system extends to the control of the consequences of marine accidents. It can provide information for many purposes including search and rescue and the prevention of marine pollution. In addition, during the winter period, when the Gulf of Finland is partly or totally covered with ice, it relays information between the icebreaker fleet and the vessels in the area thus assisting the icebreaker fleet in ensuring safe and effective navigation in ice. Date Espoo 2 October, 2002 Harri Soininen Tapio Nyman Research Manager Senior Research Scientist Distribution (customers and VTT): Finnish Maritime Administration: 3 copies Ministry of Transport and Communications: 2 copies VTT Industrial Systems: 7 copies HUT Ship Laboratory: 4 copies Checked 7KHXVHRIWKHQDPHRI977LQDGYHUWLVLQJRUSXEOLFDWLRQRIWKLVUHSRUWLQSDUWLVDOORZHGRQO\E\ZULWWHQ SHUPLVVLRQIURP (&+1,&$/5(6($5&+&(175(2)),1/$1' VTT INDUSTRIAL SYSTEMS Tekniikantie 12, Espoo P.O. Box 1705, FIN VTT FINLAND Tel Fax name.surname@vtt.fi Business ID

4 4 (101) )RUHZRUG The increase of the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland has been rapid. The annual amount of cargo transported via the Gulf of Finland already exceeds 100 million tons. The total volume of oil transportation equals to more than 40 million tons annually. The new oil terminal in Primorsk was introduced in December Together with the rapid development in the Muuga Harbour this will increase the oil transportation in the area to threefold from the present figures. In addition to the increasing freight and oil transportation, the very intensive passenger traffic between Helsinki and Tallinn affects the future traffic image. This image consists of a variety of vessels, including tankers, passenger ferries, high speed crafts, car ferries, roro-ships, small coastal cargo ships, small crafts, military boats, etc. The dense vessel traffic, the new demands for scheduled traffic and the need to ensure maritime safety requires reliable tools as well as harmonised and approved routines for the operation of the VTMIS stations. Thus the co-operation between the VTMIS stations in Estonia, Finland and Russia should be assured and based on jointly agreed common rules and effective management. The preliminary work for the development of the VTMIS system for the Gulf of Finland was started in March 2000 in a seminar in Kotka. The objective of the seminar was to define the current status of the national VTS systems in the contracting nations and to determine the possibilities to create a joint VTMIS system for the Gulf of Finland in the future. The first task was to get the responsible parties to participate in a round table discussion and share information on the national needs and strategies. Another task was to discuss with the commercial stakeholders in order to get a general view of their opinions on how the VTMIS system would improve transportation and logistics and enhance the safety of shipping and environmental protection. But what is a VTMIS system?one description for VTMIS could be as follows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hatever the objective and configurations of the future Vessel Traffic Management and Information Services in the Gulf of Finland might be, there will be a need to assess navigational situations and accordingly provide the various parties participating in the VTMIS system operation with the proper information.

5 5 (101) In conclusion, where the VTMIS system aims at influencing the traffic through a number of centres attended by operators, there is a need for : - networking the various centres, - setting up adequate procedures, and - ensuring that the operators have the appropriate expertise. The present FSA study was carried out to define and assess the effectiveness of the proposed routeing, reporting and monitoring systems in the Gulf of Finland. The outcome of the FSA study is clear and undeniable: the implementation of the proposed VTMIS in the Gulf of Finland is highly recommendable. The VTMIS system will significantly reduce both probability and consequences of marine accidents, in particular, given the foreseen increase of the vessel traffic. Markku Mylly Director, Finnish Maritime Administration

6 6 (101) $FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV The first step of this FSA study is based on the valuable knowledge of the persons who attended the two expert group sessions organised for the identification and prioritisation of hazards in relation to the open water season and the winter conditions. Also, the Causation Factor values needed in the collision risk calculations, were determined based on expert assessments obtained at the third expert group session held during the course of this study. The persons invited to participate these sessions represented the various stakeholders of the marine industry and have been listed in Appendix 1. The co-operation of the Finnish Maritime Administration, the Finnish Environment Institute, the Finnish Institute of Marine Research and the Finnish Meteorological Institute has also been essential for the success of this study. These above mentioned organisations and the associated individuals have contributed much to this study and their time and effort are highly acknowledged. Helsinki, May 2002 Authors

7 7 (101) 7DEOHRIFRQWHQWV 7DEOHRIFRQWHQWV,QWURGXFWLRQ )6$PHWKRG 'HVFULSWLRQRIWKH*XOIRI)LQODQG 3.1 General Meteorological and related conditions Fog Waves Winds Ice conditions Formation of the ice cover Dynamics of ice the cover Navigation channels Conclusions Environmentally sensitive areas Ship traffic in the Gulf of Finland Total traffic Oil tanker traffic Winter traffic Basic data Development of the traffic profiles Traffic volumes Conclusions Current operating practices in the Gulf of Finland Ship routeing systems Piloting VTS Ice class rules, traffic restrictions and icebreaker assistance Finnish-Swedish ice class rules Comparison between different ice classes Traffic restrictions Ice conditions, traffic restrictions and ice edge in the Gulf of Finland in Icebreaker assistance Emergency towing Accident statistics in the Gulf of Finland Accident statistics Accident risk Accident characteristics due to ice Groundings...56

8 8 (101) Collisions Ice damages Effect of double hull HWKRGRIZRUN 5LVNFRQWURORSWLRQV 5.1 Components of risk control options New ship routeing system in the Gulf of Finland Mandatory ship reporting system Traffic monitoring system Risk control options Description of System Description of System ,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIKD]DUGV 6.1 General Brainstorming method General hazards Hazard identification panel Prioritisation of the hazards Selection of relevant hazards Hazards related to winter traffic Identification of the winter navigation hazards Prioritisation of the winter navigation hazards $VVHVVPHQWRIULVNV 7.1 General Collision risk calculations with GRACAT program Results of risk assessment: open sea risks Assessment of winter navigation risks Risks due to winter Changes to the ship routeing system due to ice Icebreaker operations and information flow at the VTMIS area The effect of the risk control options on the winter navigation risks Conclusions &RVWEHQHILWDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHULVNFRQWURORSWLRQV 8.1 General Assessment of the costs 'LVFXVVLRQ &RQFOXVLRQV 5HIHUHQFHV $SSHQGLFHV

9 9 (101),QWURGXFWLRQ The risk of oil spill is expected to increase in the Gulf of Finland in the coming years. This is argued in the context of increasing ship traffic. Especially, the number of oil tankers operating in the area is estimated to increase due to construction of new oil terminals in Russia and Estonia. As a consequence of this, there will be heavy oil tanker traffic in the longitudinal direction of the gulf and busy passenger ship traffic between Finland and Estonia intersecting the tanker routes. In order to avoid the foreseen increase of risk, a VTMIS (Vessel Traffic Management and Information Services) system has been planned, in co-operation with the Maritime Administrations of Finland, Russia and Estonia, as a risk control option to be implemented in the Gulf of Finland. In the first phase, a system consisting of a ship routeing system and a mandatory ship reporting system effective in the international sea area of the Gulf of Finland is proposed to IMO. IMO recommends that the effectiveness of each proposal is assessed by using the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) method before it is passed on to the IMO decision making process. For this purpose the Ministry of Traffic and Communications, together with the Finnish Maritime Administration, ordered VTT Manufacturing Technology to perform this FSA study for the international area of the Gulf of Finland. The work dealing with the ice season and winter navigation was subcontracted to the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) Ship Laboratory, and the expertise regarding the hazard identification and risk assessment steps of the FSA study was obtained from VTT Automation. Due to the organisational changes at VTT, VTT Manufacturing Technology and VTT Automation were integrated during the course of this work. The new unit was named VTT Industrial Systems, and this name is used in this report when referring to the former Automation or Manufacturing Technology research units. The aim of this Formal Safety Assessment study was to assess the effectiveness of the proposed routeing, monitoring and mandatory reporting systems as measures to improve maritime safety in the Gulf of Finland by reducing the risk of casualties and increasing the protection of the marine environment. Two system combinations, seen as two different levels of VTMIS operation, were considered as the risk control options (RCOs) of this study. As these RCOs formed the basis of the assessment, the five steps of the FSA methodology are not presented in this report in the normal order. The FSA step number three, the generation and defining of risk control options is described already in chapter 5, before the FSA steps 1 and 2 described in chapters 6 and 7 respectively. The main concern that has been expressed, both in general by the various maritime stakeholders and, more specifically, as a result of the expert group session carried out at the beginning of the study, is the risk of collisions between different types of vessels and the environmental damage due to subsequent oil spills. The risk with respect to groundings is considered less significant as groundings are seen as highly improbable in the open sea area to which this study concentrates. Thus the present FSA study was focused on the ship-to-ship collision risk. The objective of the study was to compare the risk level associated with the prevailing systems for controlling ship traffic to the risk level with the proposed new VTMIS system in operation. The comparison was to be done in respect of the estimated future traffic volume. Thus the results of this study mainly show the level of improvement expected in

10 10 (101) relation to the likelihood of collision accidents rather than the actual number of collisions to be avoided with the implementation of the VTMIS system. The risks involved in the navigation during winter have been analysed somewhat more extensively than the risks during the open water season. The former include risks for collision, grounding and other hazards that ice or winter season may bring about whereas the open water risks include the collision risks solely. This wider focus depends on two factors, one is that during winter the whole navigation system is different and is based on icebreaker escort. This escort operates to and from ports thus there is no point in restricting the analysis to international waters. The second reason is that the risk for collision is similar to other risks and not that pronounced as during the open water season when the high-speed crafts are in operation. Overall, the choice of the route is emphasised during winter, naturally together with avoidance of collisions.

11 11 (101) )6$PHWKRG FSA method is a relatively recent approach to the regulation of shipping safety. It is based on the principles of hazard identification, risk evaluation and cost benefit assessment. FSA can be used as a tool to help the evaluation of new safety regulations, or to help to compare existing and possibly improved regulations, with a view to achieving a balance between the various technical and operational issues, including the human element, and between safety and costs. By using FSA the decision-makers at IMO will be able to appreciate the effects of the proposed regulatory changes. This is achieved in terms of the benefits (e.g. the expected reduction of lives lost or pollution) and the associated costs incurred by the industry as a whole and by the individual parties affected by the decision. A FSA study consists of the following five steps : 1. Identification of hazards 2. Assessment of risks 3. Generation of risk control options 4. Cost-benefit assessment of the risk control options 5. Decision-making recommendations concerning the options available All relevant criteria and arguments, as well as the models and the data applied by the FSA team and leading to the recommendations for decision-making should be documented in a systematic way. Thus, they can be reviewed and discussed and, if necessary, revised if essential changes in shipping occur. The application of FSA should lead to cost-efficiency in rule-making, which in turn should lead to a better balance in the development of safety, even if the funds available for this purpose are limited.

12 12 (101) 'HVFULSWLRQRIWKH*XOIRI)LQODQG 3.1 General The Gulf of Finland is approximately 400 km long and from 58 to 135 kilometres wide surrounded by the three coastal states: Estonia, Finland and Russian Federation. The average depth of the shallow gulf is 37 metres. The central part of the gulf is relatively deep, in average 60 meters. The gulf is typically partly frozen from December to March. The gulf is an important corridor for shipping, St. Petersburg, Tallinn and Helsinki being the main ports. 3.2 Meteorological and related conditions In the following, the effects of fog, waves and rain on the performance of ships and the bridge officers is discussed Fog In meteorology, the condition when the visibility in the horizontal direction is less than one kilometre is defined as fog. A day is determined as a foggy day if fog is detected in one of the daily observations. The duration of the reduced visibility caused by fog can not be seen from the statistics. The percentages of the foggy days in different months based on the article [Heino & Solantie 1977] and estimations of the Finnish Meteorological Institute are presented in Table 1. The percentages are based on the observations from the period on some coastal observation stations (Hanko, Russarö and Helsinki). As indicated in the table, foggy days are quite common in the Gulf of Finland in the late winter and early spring (percentage about 30%), whereas in the late summer and autumn the number of foggy days is quite small (percentage 5 10%). The estimate for the average percentage of the foggy days for the open water season April 15th January 15th is 10 12%. 7DEOH 3HUFHQWDJHRIIRJJ\GD\VLQGLIIHUHQWPRQWKV>+HLQRÉ6RODQWLH@ Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Hanko, Russarö Helsinki Centre of the Gulf of Finland Waves During the years , the Finnish Institute of Marine Research (FIMR) carried out wave measurements off Helsinki at 59 57,9 N and 25 14,11 E. These measurements were done by a non-directional waverider during the autumn months. Together the measurements represent three years of data Between years 1990 and 1994 FIMR performed at the same

13 13 (101) location directional wave measurements during the autumn and winter seasons. In this latter case, however, the measurement periods were fairly short and together they represent about one autumn and winter season of measurements. From all these data a composite scatter diagram has been calculated. The characteristic feature of waves in the Gulf of Finland is that the significant wave height does not grow much above 4 meters. The shape of the Gulf of Finland restricts high waves to a narrow angle coming from the Baltic proper. The U-shaped bottom of the Gulf of Finland refracts long waves towards the south and north coasts, and prevents waves with significant wave height over 4 meters from arriving into the inner gulf sea area [Kahma et al. 2000]. Another important feature is that the geometry of the Gulf of Finland turns waves to the direction of the bay regardless of the wind direction, except when the wind is nearly from the north or from the south. For these latter directions it is possible, in principle, that in extreme wind conditions higher waves will be generated than in case of the dominant south-west direction. This is because refraction will have less effect on waves from the north or the south direction. 7DEOH :DYH GDWD EDVHG RQ WKH ZDYH PHDVXUHPHQWV RII+HOVLQNL ƒ 1 DQG ƒ ( GXULQJ \HDUV ± DQG ± $OO GLUHFWLRQV XQLW KRXUV \HDUV 'DWD VRXUFH)LQQLVK,QVWLWXWHRI0DULQH5HVHDUFK Significant Peak wave period Tp[s] wave height [m] ,75-5, ,50-4, ,25-4, ,00-4, ,75-4, ,50-3, ,25-3, ,00-3, ,75-3, ,50-2, ,25-2, ,00-2, ,75-2, ,50-1, ,25-1, ,00-1, ,75-1, ,50-0, ,25-0, ,00-0, In the following, the limit value of the significant wave height for different ships sizes is estimated. In this estimation the criterion has been that the RMS-value of the vertical acceleration at the bow of the ship may not exceed 0,2g [Nordforsk 1987]. Determination of the significant wave height for different ship sizes is based on seakeeping calculations

14 14 (101) described in [Karppinen & Aitta 1986]. The results of this estimation are presented in Table 3, where the significant wave height limits are presented for different shiplengths. 7DEOH 7KHVLJQLILFDQWZDYHKHLJKWOLPLWVIRUGLIIHUHQWVKLSOHQJWKV Ship length Hs < L < 50 m 1-2 m 50 m < L < 100 m < 3 m 100 m < L < 150 m < 4 m 150 m < L < 200 < 5 m 200 m < L < < 7 m In the collision risk calculations applied in this study and described in chapter 7.2, the ship traffic has been grouped into three ship types and each ship type into two size categories. The dimensions of a typical ship representing each group are presented in Table 4. 7DEOH 3ULQFLSDO GLPHQVLRQV RI WKH µw\slfdo VKLS LQ HDFK JURXS XVHG LQ WKH FROOLVLRQ ULVNFDOFXODWLRQVRIWKHSUHVHQWVWXG\ Ship Tonnage Length [m] Breadth [m] Draught [m] [1000 ton] Tankers: small ,5 24,8 9,75 large ,0 40,0 14,0 Passenger ships: small 1,5-2,0 50,0 9,5 2,4 large ,6 29,0 6,3 Containers and others: small ,4 15,5 5,6 large ,0 32,2 7,75 Based on the wave data in Table 2 and the limits of the significant wave height shown in Table 3 it can be concluded that the waves measured on the Gulf of Finland don t have significant effect on the operability of the large ships category in any ship type. For ships in the small category of the three different ship types considered in the study the limit of 3 m for the significant wave height was adopted. From the Table 2 it can be calculated that during a four year period the cumulative time during which the significant wave height is 3 m or more is 323 hours, which represents about 1% of the total time Winds The Finnish Meteorological Institute has an automatic weather station located in Kallbådagrund, quite in the center of the Gulf of Finland (Figure 1). The wind speed is measured and recorded at intervals of three hours as the average of ten minutes at a time. The Weibull distribution determined from the wind data from the years is presented in Figure 2. [Petterson 1990]. Wind affects the manoeuvring of ships especially in the beam wind condition. This can be seen from Figure 3, in which the required rudder angle is presented as a function of the wind

15 15 (101) direction, having the ratio of wind speed and ship speed as a parameter. The values in the figure have been determined for a "MARINER" class cargo ship. According to the measured wind data, the maximum wind speed value which is exceeded during one hundred years period is 24,59 m/s and the realistic rudder angle to compensate the drift of the ship can be taken as 25. Based on these wind and rudder angle values the minimum speed in which a ship is able to maintain its course is about 6 knots. In restricted water areas strong winds can create difficulties for the ship traffic,but in the international sea area of the Gulf of Finland the situation is different. In the Gulf of Finland the wave conditions affect more than the wind conditions on the performance of ships. )LJXUH /RFDWLRQRIWKH.DOEnGDJUXQGZHDWKHUVWDWLRQ>3HWWHUVRQ@ )LJXUH 7KH:HLEXOO GLVWULEXWLRQ GHWHUPLQHG IURP WKH ZLQG GDWD IURP WKH\HDUV ± >3HWWHUVRQ@

16 16 (101) )LJXUH Ice conditions The ice conditions in the Gulf of Finland are mostly affected by two factors: the count of degree days of frost and the prevailing westerly winds. The count of degree days of frost (i.e., the cumulative average temperature of the winter) controls the ice growth and the amount of ice. The prevailing winds control the drifting and ridging of the ice field. )RUPDWLRQRIWKHLFHFRYHU During the winter season the temperature contours lie generally in the north-south direction at the region of the Gulf of Finland. The temperature gets colder when moving towards east and therefore the formation of the ice cover starts from the easternmost parts of the gulf. Generally the Gulf of Finland starts to freeze only slightly later than the Bay of Bothnia. The edge of the ice cover moves towards west as the winter proceeds. On an average winter the Gulf of Finland starts to freeze in the beginning of December. The earliest freeze up days are recorded to be in the mid November. After the beginning of ice cover formation the coastline, the bays and the archipelago all freeze quite quickly. At the open sea the formation of the ice cover follows quite well the temperature curves, and, therefore, the edge of the ice is in the north-south direction and moves towards west. In the spring the breaking up of the ice goes much in the opposite order, and on an average winter the whole gulf is free of ice in the beginning of May. This gives as the average length of the ice season in the Gulf of Finland 120 days outside St. Petersburg and 30 days at the entrance of the gulf. The length of the ice season between these two locations is quite well linear (see Figure 4).

17 17 (101) )LJXUH The level ice thickness is controlled by the count of degree days of frost and, therefore, it follows the same pattern as the length of the ice season. The maximum level ice thickness is greatest at the eastern parts of the gulf and is about 50 cm on an average winter. In a hard winter the maximum thickness of level ice can be up to 70 cm. The distribution of the maximum thickness of level ice on an average winter is presented in Figure 5. 0D[LPXP OHYHO LFH WKLFNQHVV FP RQ DQ DYHUDJH ZLQWHU >/HSSlUDQWD HW DO '\QDPLFVRILFHWKHFRYHU Fast ice is found in the Gulf of Finland only at the shores and the whole open sea area of the gulf creates a drift ice zone. Winds break and drive the ice constantly causing compression in the ice field and ridging. Large open water areas also occur in the drift ice zone. An important

18 18 (101) quantity describing the drift ice is its coverage, which tells how much of a particular sea area is covered with ice. If the ice coverage is 5/10 or less, it is possible to navigate in open water around the ice floes [Leppäranta et al. 1988]. Drifting and ridging of the ice is characteristic to the Gulf of Finland and it also affects the winter navigation highly. The prevailing westerly winds push the ice east causing heavy ridging in the eastern parts of the gulf. The probability of encountering big ridges increases when moving eastwards, and also the distance between ridges gets smaller. On hard winters, when the ridges grow big and the ice cover freezes immobile, the active zone, where the ridging occurs, moves towards west. The ridges in the Gulf of Finland have normally sail heights of 0,3-1 m and keel heights of 5 to 7 times the sail height. The consolidated layer of the ridges is normally thicker than the level ice and thus the ridges are difficult to penetrate, forming the biggest obstacle for winter navigation. The level ice thickness does not describe the ridged ice field well. For ridged ice fields it is possible to calculate the so-called equivalent ice thickness which means the thickness when the amount of ice in the ridges would be distributed evenly at the whole area. On an average winter this addition to the level ice thickness is about 10 cm in some parts of the Gulf of Finland, but on a hard winter it can be up to 70 cm as presented in Figure 6. Another important measure that describes the ridged ice field is the ridge density (ridges per nautical mile). The closer the ridges are the more difficult the ice field is to navigate. The ridge density is usually mentioned in the ice charts and is based on the reports from the vessels navigating at the area. )LJXUH DO@ 7KHELJJHVWDGGLWLRQWRWKHOHYHOLFHWKLFNQHVVFDXVHGE\ULGJLQJ>/HSSlUDQWDHW In addition to ridging, the compression in an ice field due to wind drag causes direct problems to winter navigation. Vessels navigating in a compressive ice field might get stuck and get ice damages to hull. Also, following an icebreaker in a closing channel gets difficult and high compressive loads may occur on the vessel midship.

19 19 (101) 1DYLJDWLRQFKDQQHOV The fairways leading especially to the Finnish harbours are going through shallow and rocky waters and therefore these fairways are the only possible ways for use also in wintertime. The ice cover in the fairways is constantly broken and refrozen and therefore channels with thick side ridges and thick brash ice layer in the middle are formed rapidly. The side ridges may grow several meters thick and the brash ice layer in the middle can become up to one meter thick. This kind of channels are difficult and heavy to navigate, and,because of the side ridges, passing of other vessels becomes very difficult. At the open sea such navigation channels are not formed because the drifting ice closes and moves the channels rapidly. &RQFOXVLRQV Due to the characteristics of the Gulf of Finland there are no so-called easy winters. On a hard winter the amount of ice is big and the extent of the ice cover is large. The distances travelled in ice become long and the likelihood of encountering massive ridges become bigger. On a hard winter all harbours in the Gulf of Finland are surrounded with ice. On milder winters not all harbours become icebound, and especially the southern shores stay open. The Finnish harbours are all surrounded by ice, but the distances travelled in ice are fairly short as the ice edge is at the outer islands. The situation in the eastern parts of the gulf is somewhat different. On milder winters the total amount of ice at the Gulf of Finland might be smaller but the winds push that ice towards east and it packs and ridges against the far end of the gulf. The fairways to the eastern harbours are therefore in every winter covered with ice and the vessels have to sail through heavily ridged ice fields.

20 20 (101) 3.3 Environmentally sensitive areas The following information is based on the Tacis report Baltic Pipeline System, Non-technical Summary, 1998 [Tacis, 1998]. The description of the marine environment in the Baltic Sea includes: hydrography, sediments, coast types, plankton, benthic vegetation, benthic fauna, fish, birds, mammals, protected areas, eutrophication and pollution and human exploitation of the Baltic Sea. Maps of the extent of relevant environmental parameters are presented in Appendix 14 and Appendix 15. Emphasis is put on topics especially relevant for oil spills. Oil spills can cause serious deleterious impacts on certain marine species and habitats and can also have severe economic impacts on the coastal areas that become exposed. Marine organisms may be affected by oil in several ways: as a result of physical contamination (smothering) by toxic effects of chemical components and by accumulation of substances leading to tainting. Physical smothering by oil components is the main threat to marine organisms and habitats after an oil spill. The organisms most at risk are those that could come into contact with oil slicks on the sea surface or on the beach such as seabirds, marine mammals and organisms on the shorelines. The volatile components of oil which become rapidly removed through evaporation when oil is spilled are the most toxic components. Therefore, large scale mortalities of marine organisms due to toxic effects are relatively rare, localised and of short duration. The sensitivity to oil of different environmental parameters are described and assessed based on a literature survey of the observed impacts of oil spills in the marine environment. Based on this assessment a ranking system has been established and maps indicating the sensitivity of different areas in the Baltic Sea to oil spills prepared. The relevant environmental parameters in the Baltic Sea are ranked in four categories according to their sensitivity to oil as indicated in Table 5.

21 21 (101) 7DEOH 5DQNLQJRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSDUDPHWHUVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUVHQVLWLYLW\WRRLOVSLOO$ Sensitivity Parameter Justification for ranking Very high Wintering area for seabirds (10 most important areas of international importance) Seabirds are the most vulnerable species to oil pollution. A substantial amount of the north-west European populations of a number of very sensitive seabirds are found in these areas during the winter. Marsh areas Oil may persist for a long time and there is a high risk of clean-up damage. Marshes are extremely productive and valuable habitats. Essential habitats for roosting and breeding birds. Protected areas Areas protected by national or international laws and conventions to prevent human impacts. High Wintering area for birds (areas of international importance exclusive Populations of international importance of an number of very sensitive seabirds are found in these areas during the winter. of the ten most important) Sheltered rocky shores, indented low coast, Archipelagos High biological productivity. Important breeding areas for sea and shore birds during the summer. Spawning and nursery areas for fish. Important habitat for seals. The low energy nature of sheltered shores result in high persistence of oil at the shoreline and sediments. Waters covered with ice each year Natural weathering processes seriously hampered in ice and it is very difficult to collect oil in the ice. Oil may be encapsulated in ice and when the ice is melting, the oil is released into the water as if it was a fresh oil spill. Some seals breed on the ice. Medium Waters frequently covered with ice As above. but not each year (Approx. 70% of the time) Shallow water (<10m) Productive zone. Herring spawning grounds, benthic fauna, benthic vegetation (algae, eelgrass ) nursery areas for fish fry. Fishing grounds. May be effected by oil spill, but the recovery of impacted areas is usually fast. Towns/harbours An oil spill represents a nuisance. However, clean up operations are relatively easy. Exposed rocky shores Wave reflection generally prevents oil deposition, but sticky oil may remain as a band at the high tide line. Algae and invertebrates on the rocks may be temporarily affected. Sandy and gravel beaches Sandy beaches are often important as tourist areas, but sand beaches are relatively easy to clean up. Gravel beaches are not important for the tourist industry, but they are more difficult to clean. Low Offshore fish spawning areas and fish populations Mainly cod and sprat spawning on deep water. Oil slicks and toxic concentrations often float above the eggs, larvae and adult fish. Adult fish can avoid oil. Plankton Plankton not seriously affected by oil spill, due to dilution of oil and due to the fact that plankton has high reproductive rates. Benthic fauna on deeper waters Oil slicks and toxic concentrations float above the fauna. (>10m) Offshore fishing grounds Fishing only hampered when oil slicks pass the fishing grounds. Stock size not affected by oil spill.

22 22 (101) There are areas having more than one very highly or highly sensitive environmental parameter associated with the area. Therefore, it was necessary to improve the resolution of the ranking by taking into account also the number of very highly and highly sensitive parameters in a particular area, as indicated in Table 6. 7DEOH 5DQNLQJVFKHPDIRUELRORJLFDOVHQVLWLYHDUHDV>7DFLV@ Ranking Criterion 1 Areas with more than one very highly sensitive parameter 2 Areas with one very highly sensitive parameter 3 Areas with more than one highly sensitive parameter 4 Areas with one highly sensitive parameter in the same area 5 Areas with medium sensitive features 6 Areas with low sensitive features Maps indicating the sensitivity of different areas in the Baltic Sea to oils spills during summer and winter have been prepared based on the defined ranking schema and the maps indicating the extent of the various parameters in the Baltic Sea area (Appendix 14 and Appendix 15). In general, the environment is most vulnerable to oil spills during winter. 3.4 Ship traffic in the Gulf of Finland The Baltic Sea is a fairway between European Union and Russia and a European inland sea. The financial importance thereof is significant. The strong economic development of trade in the Baltic Sea area is also reflected in the development of shipping. Consequently, when economies strengthen and trade increases, it is important that shipping and the transport system in general are not restricted by various barriers, bottlenecks and certain institutional differences. Development, however, is leaning to the more general trade with harmonised tools and legislation. A precondition for a market economy is a functional legal system with well-developed contract, association, business and trade and competition legislation. Through EU membership, Finland, Germany, Denmark, and Sweden are already subject to the common regulatory system of the EU. The EU s transport and shipping policy comprises the framework for the regulatory system that controls shipping and ports in these countries [SMA 1999]. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, there have been a lot of different harbour and terminal proposals for the Gulf of Finland area. Simultaneously, the Baltic countries have rapidly rehabilitated their old harbours and built up new capacity mainly for transit traffic. At this point in time, there are a lot of development activities under way in the Russian and Baltic ports. The most well known rehabilitation projects have been in St. Petersburg Harbour, and Muuga Harbour in Tallinn. The oil transit traffic for the Port of Muuga was approximately 19 million tons in 2000, and after the railway connections from Russia to the port are rehabilitated, that may increase. Totally new harbour construction sites have been at Primorsk, Lomonosov, Batareynaja and Ust-Luga on the Russian side of the Gulf of Finland. It has been estimated that maritime traffic will increase two-fold in Transportation of hydrocarbon products may even be three-fold compared to the present figures.

23 23 (101) The first phase of the Primorsk oil terminal was completed by the end of The first oil tanker departed from Primorsk on December 28 th, The government of the Russian Federation, however, has already given a new order to start up the second phase of the Primorsk oil terminal, which will raise the proposed first stage annual oil flow by 6 million tons up to an annual level of 18 million tons. The final target in the annual transport flow is 36 million tons. The Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) have strong, growing structures for shipping and port activities. During Soviet rule, their ports were handling a significant amount of Soviet exports. After gaining their independence, the Baltic Countries have retained, and even strengthened their role as transit regions for Russia exports and imports. The development of the Port of Tallinn, and especially of the Muuga oil terminal has been rapid and intense. The new capacity of the Gulf of Finland may cause the transit traffic of the Baltic States to decrease in the long term. The crude and raw materials market price, however, will, together with the need of western currency and political decisions inside and outside the EU, influence development. Here, the assumption is made that the new Russian capacity will not totally cut the traffic numbers for the Baltic States, decreasing development instead. The positive economic development of Russia and the Baltic States will influence maritime transport and speed up growth, which will then compensate for part of the existing transit. Russia will take care of a larger part of the shipping of its raw materials, but simultaneously new materials will be imported to Russia, which will keep the transit figure in balance, and even let it grow. The disintegration of the Soviet Union changed the picture of the maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea area essentially. Russia lost some important ports after the independence of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. The growth of the maritime and port operations has been rapid in Estonia. Especially the Muuga terminal is now a major oil transit site for Russian oil export in the Gulf of Finland. Russia is now investing to ports in its own territory. There are also several proposals to enhance existing ports and terminals. The best known new development sites are [VTT 2002]: Lomonosov with the annual throughput of Mton, Batareynaja bay with plans up to 15 Mton, Ust-Luga with planned 35 Mton and Primorsk for Mton of oil products. The latest news concerning the Russian port developments in the Gulf of Finland indicate, that The first phase of the Primorsk oil terminal is completed, and the first oil tanker departed in the end of December in The planned volume of the first phase will be approximately 12 million tons. In the first phase, especially during the winter time, the smaller tankers may be used, but the master plan of the terminal uses dwt tankers as design ships. The St. Petersburg Sea port is also developing rapidly. The total cargo throughput of the St. Petersburg Sea port alone was 15.6 Mton in 1998, over 20.5 Mton in 1999 and 36,9 Mton in The amount of oil products handled last year amounted 9 Mton.

24 24 (101) The Batareynaja port construction work seems to have been postponed. The Ust-Luga coal and fertiliser port, however, has received more funds for continuation of the construction work Total traffic The Lloyds database (Lloyds 2000) was analysed in order to form a statistic of the maritime transport in the Gulf of Finland. The traffic season May 2000 was selected as the baseline for this analysis. The database consisted of all port calls, and it was modified in order to get understanding of the intra regional ship movements and, especially, of the oil tanker movements in the area. The ferry traffic was not included in the Lloyds data and was therefore calculated separately from the ferry schedules. About one third of the ship calls in the ports of Helsinki and Tallinn consists of high speed passenger crafts, operating roughly six months a year. This means very dense traffic in the summer in this particular area. The figures below represent in numbers the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland area. Figure 7 shows the total number of ship calls in year 2000 for selected ports. Ship calls were gathered directly from the statistics of the selected ports (Finland and Estonia) or produced by using both statistics and estimations based on the Lloyds data for May 2000 (Russia). Figure 8 shows an estimation of the total traffic for the same ports in year According to the development scenarios of the terminals in the Gulf of Finland area, the estimate of total transportation will be doubled, and the oil transportation amount will be three times bigger by the year 2010 compared to the present volume. The ship call figures will not directly increase to two- or three-fold, since the aim of the shipping industry is to increase the average size of the cargo vessel chartered for transportation. Calculations based on the information received from commercial stakeholders of the three coastal countries show that the number of cargo vessel calls will increase with 50 percent in average. The estimations of the increase in passenger ship calls is based on the information on new lines planned by shipping companies. )LJXUH 7RWDOWUDIILFDQQXDOQXPEHURISRUWFDOOVLQWKH*XOIRI)LQODQGLQ\HDU IRUVHOHFWHGSRUWV

25 25 (101) )LJXUH 7RWDO WUDIILF HVWLPDWH DQQXDO QXPEHU RI SRUW FDOOV LQ WKH*XOI RI)LQODQG IRU \HDUV±IRUVHOHFWHGSRUWV The Port of Tallinn consists of four harbours. The largest harbours are the Old City harbour dedicated for passenger liners, and the Port of Muuga, a large oil and fertiliser harbour. The Muuga harbour includes six oil terminals, dry bulk and general cargo terminals, a Ro/Ro and a container terminal, a reefer terminal, and storage areas for vehicles and timber. Smaller harbours are Paljassare Harbour and Paldiski South Harbour. The Paldiski South harbour is located westwards of the Old City area, as shown in Figure 9. )LJXUH 7KHORFDWLRQRIWKH7DOOLQQPDLQKDUERXUV>3RUWRI7DOOLQQ@ Oil tanker traffic In year 2000, the Port of Muuga was the largest oil harbour in the Gulf of Finland, with the liquid bulk cargo throughput of 17,8 million tons. The average oil tanker size of the Port of Muuga was about tons in 1998, and tons in In year 2000, the average tanker size was already tons. The increase of the size of tankers is expected to continue in Muuga. The port authorities are considering a new jetty for dwt tankers. As a comparison, the throughput in Sköldvik was 15,8 million tons and in St. Petersburg

26 26 (101) about 8 million tons in year In St. Petersburg, the large oil tankers are loaded on sea from river tankers beside the Kronstadt island. Similar to the total traffic figures presented in Figure 7 and Figure 8 above, the following figures show the use of the fairways by the oil tankers in year 2000 (Figure 10) and the forecast of oil tanker movements for the year 2015 (Figure 11). The forecast is based on the assumption that by the year 2015 the oil transport will be three-fold compared to the present volume. The annual growth rates vary between 2 and 7 % depending on the country or the port under survey. The most rapid growth of the oil tanker traffic is assumed to take place in Russia and in the Baltic countries. No tanker calls have been recorded for the Port of Helsinki for the year 2015 as the Helsinki (Laajasalo) oil harbour is planned to be closed in year )LJXUH 2LOWUDIILFDQQXDOQXPEHURISRUWFDOOVLQWKH*XOIRI)LQODQGLQ\HDUIRU VHOHFWHGSRUWV )LJXUH 2LO WUDIILF HVWLPDWH DQQXDO QXPEHU RI SRUW FDOOV LQ WKH *XOI RI )LQODQG IRU \HDUV±IRUVHOHFWHGSRUWV