Alpine Tourism in Lombardy - Report

Transcription

1 Acknowledgementsk The Effect of Climate Change on Alpine destinations in Lombardy

2 Photo courtesy of Luca Grimaldi - IREALP - and Prof. Michele Corti - University of Milan, Faculty of Agricolture Edited by: Andrea Pozzi, IREALP With the collaboration of: Dr. Maria Grazia Pedrana, IREALP Dr. Lisa Garbellini, IREALP Prof. Andrea Macchiavelli, CeSTIT - University of Bergamo 2

3 Abstract 4 Notes 4 1. Tourism in alpine destinations in Lombardy Tourist accommodations Demand Tourist attractions and facilities Winter season: ski areas in Lombardy 17 Ski resorts in Lombardy Summer season: mountaineering, biking and cycling Spa&Pampering 20 Summer alpine activities in Lombardy Climate predictions Long-term climate variations in the alpine area of Lombardy The impacts of climate change on the natural snow-reliability of the ski areas in Lombardy Climate change impacts on winter tourism: abandoned ski installations 32 Abandoned ski installations Tourism policy for winter season 34 Bibliography 40 3

4 Abstract Tourism activities represent one of the main driver of economy in the alpine areas in Lombardy, especially during winter season. However (alpine) winter tourism has been facing a great challenge, due to internal and external variables such as changes recently occurred in demand, the competition of new tourist destinations and the need to actively protect the environment. Moreover winter activities are closely related to climate variations, and under a warmer climate the number of naturally snowreliable areas could drop significantly. This analysis, performed by IREALP within the ClimAlpTour project, aims to provide a current overview of alpine tourism in Lombardy, considering the tourist offer during both winter and summer season and the flows generated in recent years. The analysis of climate predictions for this part of the Alpine arc tries to point out which ski areas are expected to suffer in mid-long term because of the lack of snowfall. Finally, under a climate change scenario, it shows which adaptation and management strategies have been taken, both at regional and local level. Notes Regional data about alpine tourism (Chapter 1) have been provided by ISTAT (Istituto Centrale di Statistica). Local data which have been collected consider only municipalities included in (regional) Comunità Montane, associations of municipalities in mountain areas. 1. They are: C.M. Valle Imagna, C.M. Val Seriana Superiore, C.M. Val Seriana, C.M. Val Cavallina, C.M. Valle Brembana, C.M. Val di Scalve e C.M. Alto Sebino (province of Bergamo); C.M. Valle Camonica, C.M. Val Trompia e C.M. Val Sabbia (province of Brescia); C.M. Lario Intelvese (province of Como); C.M. Valsassina, Valvarrone, Val d Esino e Riviera (province of Lecco); C.M. Valtellina di Morbegno, C.M. Alta Valtellina, C.M. Valtellina di Tirano, C.M. Valchiavenna e C.M. Valtellina (province of Sondrio). As concern tourism supply (Chapter 2) the data collected, especially for summer activities, may be underestimated. It must be noted that only official data have been considered in this study. 1 Please note that different types of tourism, especially lake tourism, may be viable within each Comunità Montana. 4

5 1. Tourism in alpine destinations in Lombardy 1.1 Tourist accommodations In 2005, the tourist accommodation statistics 2 counted an annual average of accommodation establishments 875 (60,5%) hotel accommodations and 572 (39,5%) supplementary ones open in the alpine destinations in Lombardy. This represents available beds respectively in hotels and in other supply structures 3. The distribution of establishments among provinces/districts varies greatly. Sondrio district has the highest concentration (49,9%), followed by Brescia (21,4%) and Bergamo (17,7%). Lecco (6,5%) and Como (4,6%) has the lowest one. DISTRICT HOTEL ACCOMMODATIONS Number Beds available NON-HOTEL ACCOMMODATIONS Number Beds available HOTEL AND NON-HOTEL ACCOMMODATIONS Number Beds available Sondrio Bergamo Brescia Lecco Como TOTALE Table 1. Tourist accommodations. Number and available beds per district. Year Source: Regional Statistics Office. 6,5% 4,6% 21,4% 49,9% 17,7% Sondrio Bergamo Brescia Como Lecco Chart 1. Tourist accommodations. Distribution in % per district. Year Source: Regional Statistics Office. 2 Data are provided by Unioncamere and regional statistics office. 3 Other supply structures includes apartments (excluding vacation homes/second homes), campsites, holiday villages, farms and other accommodations. 5

6 The supply structure has changed over the considered period of time ( ). Despite a reduction of hotel establishments (-2,1%), supplementary accommodations grew at high rates (+52,5%). This trend pattern is similar to that observed nationwide: small hotel accommodations with low-quality services have been reducing whereas bed places have been growing. In fact new supply structures are usually bigger. Moreover more and more tourists have begun to prefer supplementary accommodations, such as Bed&Breakfast and agriturismo (accommodations in farms). Sondrio Brescia Bergamo Como Lecco q Non-hotel accommodations Hotel accommodations Chart 2. Hotel and non-hotel accommodations. Variation in the number of establishments in each district. Source: Regional Statistics Office. 6

7 In 2005 bed places in 3 and 2-star hotels represented the greatest share. These two segments together cover 35,8% of bed places available in establishments. Other supply structures includes apartments (excluding vacation homes/second homes), campsites, holiday villages, farms and other accommodations. SONDRIO BERGAMO BRESCIA LECCO COMO Five star Hotels Four star Hotels Three star Hotells HOTEL ACCOMMODATIONS Two star Hotels NON-HOTEL ACCOMODATIONS One star Hotels Residences TOTAL Private guest houses Campsites and holiday villages Agriturismo Other complementary accommodations TOTALE TOTALE (escluso non REC) Table 2. Hotel and non-hotel accommodations. Available beds by type of accommodation. Year Source: Regional Statistics Office. 1,0% 9,7% 0,9% 5,7% Five star Hotels Four star Hotels Three star Hotels Two star Hotels One star Hotel Residences Private guest houses Campsites and holiday villages Agriturismo Other complementary accommodations 29,5% 27,5% 7,6% 3,8% 6,0% 8,3% Chart 3. Hotel and non-hotel accommodations. Distribution in % of available beds by type of accommodation. Year Source: Regional Statistics Office. 7

8 As concern the average size of the hotel accommodations, the low values registered in Bergamo (36 bed places available per accommodation), Brescia (35,4) and Lecco (34,5) district reflect the obsolescence of the tourism supply. However in the last few years something has changed (see Table 3): the average size has been growing in all districts, excluding Como, although the values counted remain lower than the national average (about 60 bed places available per hotel accommodations in 2005). DISTRICT Average size (number of available beds) Hotel Gross Occupancy Rate (%) Sondrio Bergamo Brescia Como Lecco TOTALE 47,8 48,2 27,3 27,6 35, ,3 15,2 32,6 35,4 26,9 25,3 48,1 46,2 20, ,9 34, ,2 40, ,3 24,5 Table 3. Hotel accommodations. Variation in average size (expressed in number of available beds) and gross occupancy rate (in %) in each district. Source: Regional Statistics Office. In 2005 the gross occupancy rate in hotels was 24,5%. However, this rate varied considerably depending on the district. The highest rates were registered in Sondrio district with 27,6%, in Brescia district (25,3%) and in Como district (27,6%) 4. In contrast, Bergamo and Lecco district registered lower values, which highlight the occurring difficulties/problems for hotel accommodations in these destinations. The low values registered also mean an high seasonal concentration (especially during winter season) of the hotel demand and, therefore, low hotel occupancy over the year. As concern tourist accommodations, national and regional statistics do not count vacation homes 5, which are privately owned homes that are used for vacation purposes and/or are let by private owners as holiday homes. For this reason vacation homes are difficult to count. A common feature is, thereby, a high degree of uncertainty regarding number and use of properties. 4 In some destinations of Como district lake tourism is viable and may be predominant. 5 They may also be called second homes. 8

9 An analysis published in regarding tourist destinations in Lombardy outlined the phenomenon. Using data from 2001 census in Italy, it has been estimated a total of vacation homes in the alpine destinations. And the number has grown over this decade. In order to understand its relevance, it is noted that from 1971 to 1991 it has been built more than 46% of the existing building stock. Vacation homes are usually under-utilized: many owners choose not to rent out their property when they are not making personal use of it. Moreover, (related) tourism flows are highly concentrated in short periods usually August, Christmas and Easter holidays. In this terms, vacation homes may represent a trouble for tourism development in the alpine destination in Lombardy: under-utilization would reduce income earning potential of businesses in the area and would not encourage local entrepreneurship. 6 Istituto Regionale di Ricerca della Lombardia - IRER, Il fenomeno delle seconde case in Lombardia. Analisi della consistenza per la promozione di nuova ricettività per il turismo, pag. 55. Available at 9

10 1.2 Demand At the regional level the various patterns of tourist flows result from a large scale of activities for leisure and business, especially in Milan. For this reason Lombardy remains one of the top tourist destination among Italian regions. In 2007 accommodation facilities registered arrivals and overnight stays. International visitors represent the greatest share of the demand with 52% of all overnight stays registered. As concern tourist arrivals, the market share change: domestic visitors represent 53% of arrivals whereas international 47% (data from ISTAT). Focusing attention on types of tourism, cultural tourism, especially in urban areas with historical sites, is the most popular with the greatest share of overnight stays (31,9%), followed by business tourism (29,3%), lake tourism (27,2%) and mountain/alpine tourism (10%). International flows tend to prefer lakes and heritage sites whereas domestic the alpine destinations. 29,3% 31,9% 1,2% 0,5% 27,2% 10,0% Urban areas with historical sites Alpine destinations Lake destinations Destinations with thermal baths Areas without tourist attractions Hill destinations Chart 1. Overnight stays. Distribution in % by type of tourism. Year Source: ISTAT. Regarding alpine tourism, in arrivals and overnight stays were registered in accommodation establishments, showing a slight increase compared to 2002 (see Table 1). YEAR ITALIANS FOREIGNERS TOTAL Arrivals Overnight stays Arrivals Overnight stays Arrivals Overnight stays Table 1. Tourism flows. Arrivals and overnight stays by country of residence (Italian and foreigners) ( ). Source: ISTAT. 10

11 Of the overnight stays generated in the alpine destinations in Lombardy, domestic visitors account for 68,1% of total demand. International flows share market remains the same over the considered period ( ). Arrivals Overnight stays 100% 24,6%23,9%25,3%26,5%25,0%26,5% 90% 80% 75,4%76,1%74,7%73,5%75,0%73,5% % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 28,0%28,2%30,1%31,5%29,5%31,9% 90% 80% 70% 72,0%71,8%69,9%68,5%70,5%68,1% % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Italiani Stranieri Chart 2. Tourism flows. Distribution in % of arrivals and overnight stays by country of residence (Italian and foreigners) ( ). Source: ISTAT. The average duration of stay for visitors in accommodation facilities was 4,4 nights in Italian visitors registered a lower value compared to foreigners 4 nights and 5,3 nights respectively. However both registered values has decreased compared to 2002 (see Chart 3). 6,0 5,8 5,6 5,6 5,5 5,5 5,6 5,3 5,3 5,4 5,2 4,9 5,0 4,7 4,7 4,7 4,8 4,6 4,5 4,6 4,4 4,4 4,4 4,3 4,4 4,2 4,1 4,2 4, ITALIANS FOREIGNERS TOTALS Chart 3. Duration of stay (days). Variation by country of residence (Italian and foreigners) ( ). Source: ISTAT. 11

12 In 2005 the distribution of overnight stays over the year shows an high seasonal concentration, especially during winter, as the picture below shows. Chart 4. Tourism flows. Seasonal distribution (in%) by type of tourism. Year Source: ISTAT. Considering overnight stays in the Italian alpine destinations broken down by region, over the period Lombardy registered a slight increase with a growth rate similar to that measured in Trentino-Alto Adige, which is one of the top tourist destinations all along the alpine arc. Trend registered in Piemonte region is anomalous: staging Winter Olympic Games in 2006 explains the greater growth rate in tourism flows. YEAR Lombardia Veneto Friuli Venezia- Giulia Alto Adige Trentino Piemonte Valle d Aosta Table 2. Overnight stays by tourist region ( ). Source: ISTAT. YEAR Lombardia Veneto Friuli Venezia- Giulia Alto Adige Trentino Piemonte Valle d Aosta ,8 103,6 104,7 103,2 104,6 115,2 108, ,8 95,6 106,7 103,4 104,5 113,9 103, ,0 97,9 101,3 105,0 109,9 124,9 104, ,6 99,1 100,6 105,4 109,0 144,9 103, ,2 94,7 96,1 109,1 109,3 136,0 101,0 Table 3. Overnight stays. Variation in each tourist region ( ). Index number (2002=100). Source: ISTAT. 12

13 Focusing attention on each district 7, Sondrio counted overnight stays (54%) followed by Brescia with (21,3%) and Bergamo with (12,8%) (See Chart 5 and Table 5). TOTAL ITALIANS FOREIGNERS Hotel accommodations Non-Hotel accommodations* TOTAL Hotel accommodations Non-Hotel accommodations* TOTAL Hotel accommodations Non-Hotel accommodations* TOTAL SONDRIO BERGAMO BRESCIA COMO LECCO *= non-hotel accommodations do not include second homes. Table 4. Overnight stays by country of residence (Italian and foreigners), by type of accommodation, by district ( ). Source: Regional Statistics Office. 7 Data are calculated in a different way. See section notes. 13

14 5,4% 6,5% 21,3% 54,0% 12,8% Sondrio Bergamo Brescia Como Lecco Chart 5. Overnight stays. Distribution (in %) by district. Year Source: Regional Statistics Office. Excluding Como district, domestic flows represent the greatest share (see Chart 6). As previously mentioned international visitors tend to prefer lakes and heritage sites whereas Italian the alpine destination, especially during winter season. For example, in Bergamo only 16% of the overnight stays counted in 2005 comes from abroad. SONDRIO 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 64,6% 35,4% Italians Foreigners BERGAMO BRESCIA 84,0% 69,7% 30,3% 16,0% COMO 24,6% 75,4% LECCO 68,2% 31,8% Chart 6. Overnight stays. Distribution (in %) by country of residence (Italian and foreigners), by district. Year Source: Regional Statistics Office. The trend registered over the five-year period ( ) varies greatly depending on the country of origin. As concern hotel establishments, visitors from Italy registered a decline in overnight stays. In fact, the overnight stays generated by domestic visitors represent a decrease of overnight stays compared with the year Over the same period international overnight stays have shown a continuous increase (+21,9%). As far as supplementary accommodation is concerned, market share of Italian tourists remains almost the same 14,7% in 2001 and 14,5% in Foreign visitors in this type of accommodations has grown over the same period (+8,6%) (see Chart 7). 14

15 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% ,9% 14,7% 21,8% 7,5% ,6% 14,3% 23,6% 7,5% ,8% 15,3% 23,5% 7,4% ,7% 15,8% 25,2% 7,3% ,3% 14,5% 26,2% 8,1% Hotel accommodations - Italians Hotel accommodations- Foreigners Non-hotel avvommodations - Italians Non-hotel accommodations - Foreigners Chart 7. Overnight stays. Distribution (in %) by country of residence (Italian and foreigners), by type of accommodation. Year Source: Regional Statistics Office. As observed at regional level, international and domestic tourists prefer to stay in hotel accommodations. However, Como and Lecco district showed a different pattern: tourists who visit alpine destination in these two areas prefer non-hotel accommodations. It must be noted that alpine tourism in these two district is less relevant: in ,1% of tourists stayed in Bergamo, Brescia and Sondrio districts (see Chart 8). Sondrio Brescia 4,6% 5,2% 5,6% 6,2% 6,8% 24,6% 25,8% 25,5% 27,7% 28,6% 8,1% 8,2% 8,3% 7,8% 8,3% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 18,7% 17,4% 16,5% 14,7% 16,8% 9,6% 11,9% 11,7% 13,4% 13,4% 18,2% 18,6% 20,1% 19,9% 16,1% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 62,7% 60,7% 60,6% 58,3% 56,3% 30% 20% 53,4% 52,2% 51,7% 52,0% 53,6% 30% 20% 10% 10% % % 15

16 Bergamo Como 0,4% 0,6% 1,1% 1,4% 1,7% 13,0% 13,9% 13,8% 12,4% 14,3% 100% 90% 100% 25,6% 25,7% 27,9% 28,7% 29,5% 80% 70% 60,1% 65,4% 63,4% 68,6% 66,8% 75% 60% 50% 50% 40% 61,0% 59,8% 57,3% 57,6% 54,6% 30% 20% 5,5% 4,6% 4,9% 4,2% 4,2% 23,5% 21,5% 21,9% 18,9% 21,7% 25% 10% 0% 10,9% 8,4% 9,9% 8,3% 7,2% 0% Lecco 5,6% 5,7% 5,7% 4,5% 5,2% 100% 24,9% 25,2% 22,4% 20,7% 26,6% 75% 40,1% 33,2% 42,3% 51,9% 42,1% 50% 25% 29,4% 36,0% 29,6% 23,0% 26,2% % Non hotel accommodations - Foreigners Hotel accommodations - Foreigners Non hotel accommodations - Italians Hotel accommodations - Italians Chart 7. Overnight stays. Distribution (in %) by country of residence (Italian and foreigners), by type of accommodation, by district. Year Source: Regional Statistics Office. 16

17 2. Tourist attractions and facilities Natural environment represent one of the main driver for tourism. Most renowned natural parks, such as Parco Nazionale dello Stelvio and Parco interregionale dell Adamello-Brenta, has been established in Valtellina and in Alta Valcamonica. These two alpine valleys comprise most important tourist destinations, mainly during winter season, such as Livigno, Bormio, Ponte di Legno-Tonale, Aprica and Madesimo. Main tourist attractions are health spa in Bormio, (the park of) cave paintings in Capo di Ponte (Bs) and Grosio (So), the Bernina Express and the duty-free area in Livigno. Less attractive for tourists coming from abroad and other Italian regions, Orobic Prealps (Val Seriana, Val Brembana and Val di Scalve), Lower Vallecamonica, Valsassina, Val d Intelvi and Val Trompia comprise anyhow tourist destinations region-wide renowned such as Foppolo in Val Brembana, Castione della Presolana in Upper Val Seriana, Borno and Montecampione in Lower Val Camonica and Barzio-Piani di Bobbio in the district of Lecco. Other tourist attractions in these areas are the health spa located in Boario (Bs) and San Pellegrino (Bg) and the wildlife reserves (e.g Parco Regionale delle Orobie Bergamasche). 2.1 Winter season: ski areas in Lombardy In Lombardy 110 peaks reach over 3,000m with 70 famous ski resorts, 390 ski plants and over 12,300 km of ski slopes and 590 km cross-country slopes. Valle Camonica and Valtellina represent the central hubs of alpine sport activities, followed by ski resorts in Valle Brembana, Alta Valle Seriana, Val di Scalve and Valsassina. Valtellina Valtellina boasts four large skiing areas Alta Valtellina, Aprica Val Malenco and Val Chiavenna with internationally renowned ski resort Livingo, Bormio, Santa Caterina Valfurva, Madesimo. A total of 400km of downhill runs are available for skiers. And for snowboarders there are equipped areas and snow parks across the four ski areas with over 200km of tracks. There are many rest stops along the slopes, 50 equipment hire centres and 29 ski-schools. Moreover, skiers can enjoy summer skiing on Stelvio glacier. 17

18 Valle Camonica Valle Camonica, in Brescia district, beckons with its ski resorts offering 130km of ski slopes, 60km of cross-country slopes and equipped areas for snowboarders. Renowned ski resorts are Ponte di Legno-Passo del Tonale, located in Adamello ski area, Borno-Monte Altissimo and Montecampione. Alta Valle Seriana and Valle di Scalve Alta Valle Seriana comprises small-to-medium ski resorts offering 85km of downhill runs and 60km of cross-country slopes. Well-known resorts are Lizzola, Presolana-Monte Pora and Spiazzi di Gromo. In Valle d Scalve, bordering with Alta Valle Seriana, there are another two small ski resorts: Colereski 2200, offering 15km of ski slopes, and Schilpario, a well-known resort thanks to the 10 kilometre-long cross country slope. Alta Valle Brembana Bremboski area comprises 3 small-to-medium ski resorts all skiable with a single ski pass. In total 85km of downhill runs, 5km of cross-country slopes and 2 snowparks can be used by skiers. Well-known resorts are Foppolo, Carona and San Simone. Valsassina In Valsassina Piani di Bobbio-Valtorta ski resort offer 35km of ski slopes, 7,5km of crosscountry slopes and just one snowpark. This resort cater mainly to a local and regional clientele. 18

19 Ski resorts in Lombardy Altitude min.max (m) Ski installations (number) Ski installations capacity (people per hour) Downhill runs (km) Downhill runs with skowmaking equippment (km) Crosscountry ski trails (km) Cross-country ski trails with snow making equippment (km) Snowboard, Snowpark, Halfpipe, Boardercross Valtellina Skiarea Livigno Skiarea Bormio Skiarea Santa Caterina Valfurva Skiarea Valdidentro Skiarea Aprica/ Corteno Golgi Skiarea Valmalenco Skiarea Valgerola Skiarea Valchiavenna Km Km Km Km 15 5 Km Km Km Km Km 48 6 Km ,5 7 Km 2,5 n.d Km 25 n.d. Valle Camonica Montecampione Impianti spa Borno-Monte Altissimo Adamello ski n.d Km Km Km 57 n.d. Val Palot-Pisogne n.d. n.d. (2 piste) n.d. n.d. (1 pista) Alta Valle Seriana Lizzola Presolana-Monte Pora Spiazzi di Gromo Km 16 Km n.d. 50 Km 6 Km 6 Km n.d. 15 Km 12 Km Alta Valle Brembana San Simone Foppolo Carona Km n.d. (2 piste: Arale e Colla) 1,5 Km n.d. 47 Km n.d. 3 Km n.d. 8 km n.d. Valle di Scalve Colere Skiarea n.d. 15,6 Km n.d (tratto finale pista Italia) Schilpario km 10 Km n.d. Valsassina Piani di Bobbio n.d. 35 Km n.d. 7,5 Km Legenda: UNREP = data unavailable. = not present. = prresent. 19

20 2.2 Summer season: mountaineering, biking and cycling Alpine summer tourism in Lombardy comprises a wide range of activities, such as climbing, mountaineering, Nordic walking, hiking, cycling and mountain biking along the kilometre-long network of marked tracks and 770km of cycling routes and walks. Ramblers can replenish their energy in one of the many alpine refugees and huts located along the racks; moreover visitors can go canoeing, hand gliding, horse riding and also play golf. Natural landscape has been gradually shaped by human settlement to become a mixture of man-made and pristine Alpine scenery. Visitors are offered the opportunity of discovering heritage sites, tasting regional food products and experiencing nature reserves, such as Stelvio Natural Park and Adamello regional reserve. 2.3 Spa&Pampering In order to face present crisis of tourism (in terms of declining destinations), even alpine tourism industry in Lombardy is practising wellness as a problem solution. San Pellegrino (Bergamo), Boario (Brescia) and Bormio (Sondrio) are the most renowned health spa. San Pellegrino, whose springs were discovered in 1400s, became an elite tourist destination at the end of 19 th century; at the moment the health establishments are being renovating. Bormio is primarily famous for its ski offer, although its springs were already appreciated by Romans. Recently health establishments in Bormio have been enhanced and now represent an important attraction for visitors during both summer and winter season. Also the health establishments in Boario were famous at the end of XVIII century. Nowadays medical and wellness treatment packages are offered to their customers. Just recently the establishments have been enhanced and now represent an implementation of non-snow related offer. 20

21 Summer alpine activities in Lombardy Protected Land National Parks Regional Parks Regional Wildlife Reserves Tracks (number/km)* Alpine Refugees and Huts Cycling routes (recommended routes/ km) Bike hotels Associations Association MTB Schools Marked Routes Bikepark Rental Services Climbing Associations Indoor sites Outdoor sites Hand gliding/para gliding Associations/Schools Recommended sites Canoeing/Rafting Associations/Schools Recommended sites Fishinh Golf Recommended Wine and Food/Cultural/Nature routes Health Spa SONDRIO Valtellina Val Camonica BRESCIA Valtrompia and Val Sabbia Val Seriana and Val di Scalve BERGAMO LECCO COMO Val Brembana Valsassina, Valvarrone, Val d Esino Val d Intelvi Stelvio National Park Orobie Valtellinesi - Bosco dei Bordighi - Pian di Gembro - Pian di Spagna Adamello Boschi del Giovetto di Palline Orobie Bergamasche Boschi del Giovetto di Palline Grigna Settentrionale Parco regionale della Grigna Settentrionale 1.650/1.100 Km UNREP/400 Km UNREP/360 km UNREP/150 Km UNREP/150 Km UNREP/ 150 km UNREP/ 400 km - 78 refugeees - 48 huts "Sentiero Valtellina"/ 150 Km - 25 refugeees - 7 huts 7 recommended routes 7 refugees Cycling Route Val Seriana/ 15,7 Km - 25 refugees - 5 huts - Cycling Route Zogno-Piazza Brembana/21 km - 7 recommended routes 9 refugees Cycling Route Pasturo- Cortenova/8,1 Km - 18 refugees - 1 huts UNREP 6 refugees UNREP n.d.** n.d UNREP UNREP UNREP UNREP UNREP UNREP UNREP 1 UNREP - Adda (river) - Mountain streams Oglio (river) - Mella (river) - Chiese (river) - Lake Idro Serio (river) - Brembo (river) - Mountain streams - Lake Como - Piverna (stream) Lake Como Wine and Food/ Cultural routes 4 (Terme di Bormio, Bagni Vecchi e Bagni Nuovi di Valdidentro e Bagni di Masino) 54 cultural routes 1 route 14 nature trails 12 routes UNREP 5 routes 2 (Darfo Boario Terme e Angolo Terme) 1 (Terme di Vallio) 2 (San Pellegrino Terme e Sant Omobono Terme) Legenda: *= data collected refers to the district. **= marked tracks are numerous but they cannot be assessed. = not present. UNREP = data unavailable. 21

22 3. Climate predictions 3.1 Long-term climate variations in the alpine area of Lombardy In the Italian Alps, the duration and the amount of snow cover have decreased significantly since the beginning of 1990s. The southern regions of alpine arc experienced shorter winter seasons and faster snowmelt during summer with subsequently deficit in glacier massbalance. In recent years the variance in regional snowfall have been remarkable, according to a research conducted by ARPA Lombardia (Regional Environmental Protection Agency). Considering a thirty-year period ( ) in the alpine area of Lombardy a significant reduction of snowfall and snow depth due to a warmer climate have been recognised. Chart 1. Snowfall. Variation in regional alpine arc Source: ARPA Lombardia. The glaciers are retreating, proved by a strong reduction in mass-balance and surface. This strong retreat is one of the clearest indicators that climate change is taking place, also at local level. In melt conditions, the glacier surface temperature reaches 0 C, which is why glaciers react very sensitively to temperature fluctuations. In addition, the temperature increase in mountain regions was well above average during the 20th century. The ARPA s study compares annual snow depth, measured in March, with the arithmetic mean calculated over the considered period which value is 94cm (see Picture 1) in order to highlight snow depth variations. Since the end of 1980s a strong reduction of snow depth has been registered, especially at lower altitudes. This fact is combined with contemporaneous snowfall reduction and temperature rise. 22

23 Another research, conducted by Antonio Galluccio chairman of CGI (Comitato Glaciologico Italiano) highlighted a reduction of snow cover duration since the beginning of 1980s. In the two ski resorts considered Passo dell Aprica (1.180m amsl) and Livigno S. Rocco (1.850 amsl) a reduction of snow cover duration has been registered, especially at lower altitudes (see Picture 2). However, it has shown the trend for earlier snowmelt runoff in both ski resorts (see Picture 3). Galluccio notes that in Livigno S. Rocco, due to its higher altitude, snowfall is stronger especially at the beginning of winter season: this fact may explain the difference (regarding snow cover duration) between the two ski resorts. Chart 2. Snow cover duration. Variation in two ski resorts Passo dell Aprica (1.180m amsl) and Livigno S. Rocco (1.850 amsl) from 1981/82 to 2001/02. Source: Antonio Galluccio, Le prospettive climatiche delle località montane lombarde. In Il turismo della neve, Andrea Macchiavelli (edited by), pp Milano: Franco Angeli Editore. Chart 3. Snow melt runoff. Variation in timing in two ski resorts Passo dell Aprica (1.180m amsl) and Livigno S. Rocco (1.850 amsl) from 1981/82 to 2001/02. Source: Antonio Galluccio, Le prospettive climatiche delle località montane lombarde. In Il turismo della neve, Andrea Macchiavelli (edited by), pp Milano: Franco Angeli Editore. 23

24 Even ski resorts at high altitudes suffered/experienced a reduction of snow depth: a study performed by WWF 8 highlighted this variation in four ski resorts Aprica Magnolta (1.870m amsl), Bormio 2000 (1.960m amsl), Valgerola (1.840m amsl) and Cancano (1.940m amsl) comparing values registered in two different period 1982/1992 and 1993/2003. Ski resort Altitude (m a.m.s.l.) Snowfall - Average 1982/1992 (in cm) Snowfall - Average 1993/2003 (in cm) Variation (in cm) Variation (%) Aprica Magnolta Bormio 2000 Valgerola Cancano ,0** 358,2-76,8-17, ,1 226,3-53,8-19, ,1* 412,4 41,3 +11, ,7 308,5-67,2-17,9 * 1983/1992; ** 1985/1992; Chart 4. Snowfall. Variation (in cm and in %) in the period and Source: Alpi e Turismo: trovare il punto di equilibrio, WWF Italia, Excluding Valgerola, decreases occurred in other ski resorts were higher than 17% although they re located at high altitude (see Picture 4). Registered variations are smaller than those measured in other alpine areas 9. It must be noted that average values have been influenced by the great amount of snowfall recorded in 2001/02 winter season. 8 WWF, Alpi e Turismo: trovare il punto di equilibrio, WWF Italia. 9 WWF, Le fluttuazioni recenti del clima alpino e le loro conseguenze sul turismo invernale. In Alpi e Turismo: trovare il punto di equilibrio, WWF Italia pp

25 Temperature increase has lead to widespread melting of glaciers with a strong reduction in mass-balance and surface. Regarding Italian Alps, data provided by CGI (Comitato Glaciologico Italiano) estimate an annual change of -4,8m per year over the considered period ( ). In Lombardy glacial retreat has been stronger (see Picture 4 and 5). Chart 5. Italian alpine glaciers. Growing (colour blue), stationary (green) and retreating (red) glaciers) in the italian alpine arc (a) and in each sector (b, c, d) from 1980 to The sample is written in parentheses. Source: Chart 6. Italian alpine glaciers. Cumulative variations parentheses. Source: from 1980 to The sample is written in As concern glacier front variations in Lombardy, an increase in retreating glaciers (from 12% to 89% in 20 years) and a strong decrease in growing ones (from 66% to 4%) have been registered. Along Italian Alps the glacier equilibrium line has shift upwards by 18 m: stronger variations has occurred in Lombardy (+38m), whereas smaller changes has been estimated in Triveneto 25

26 (+12m) and Piemonte (+3m) (see Picture 6). This strong registered retreat is one of the clearest indicators that alpine area in Lombardy may be more sensible to climate change. Chart 6. Italian alpine glaciers. Variations of the front minimum altitudes. The sample is written in parentheses. Source: 26

27 3.2 The impacts of climate change on the natural snow-reliability of the ski areas in Lombardy The Alpine arc in Lombardy covers an area of about square kilometres. This mountain range can be divided in two groups: an alpine area, which is commonly subdivided in Western Rhaetian Alps from Simplon Pass to Lake Como and Lepontine Alps from Splügen Pass to Reschenpass and a pre-alpine area, formed by Bergamo Alps (Prealpi Orobie) and Lombard Prealps. The main peaks are Piz Bernina (4.049m), Monte Disgrazia (3.678m), Cevedale (3.769m), Adamello (3.555m) in Western Rhaetian Alps; Piz Coca (3.053m) in Bergamo Alps and Diavolo di Tenda peak (2.915m) in Lombard Prealps. The presence of and access to medium-high elevation mountain ranges and the high altitude of the ski areas are responsible for a fairly degree of natural snow-reliability. If the line of natural snow-reliability 10 were to rise by 300 m (plus 2 C by 2050), 5 out of 6 (83%) ski areas in Lombardy can be considered naturally snow-reliable. The majority of ski areas (67%) would remain naturally snow-reliable even if the line of natural snow-reliability rose by 600m (plus 4 C by 2100) 11. EURAC European Academy Bolzano performed the analysis on natural snow-reliability of the Italian ski areas on behalf of OECD. Under present climate conditions 21 out of 33 ski areas can be naturally snow-reliable because the upper half of their altitudinal range is located above the threshold value for the line. With a 1 C warming the number of ski areas would drop to 14, with a 2 C warming to 11, with a 4 C warming to 6. Focusing attention on regional scale, a +1 C warming scenario would lead to a 33% decrease in the number of snow-reliability ski areas in Lombardy. However, there is a gradual decrease in natural snow-reliability from West to East: Lombardy, Piemonte, Trentino, South Tyrol and Valle d Aosta would be the most reliable; in Friuli Venezia Giulia the ski areas would be the most sensitive, with 100% of them becoming unreliable with a 150m increase in the line of natural snow-reliability. If the line of natural snow-reliability were to rise by 300 m (plus 2 C by 2050), ski areas in Lombardy, Piemonte and Trentino would be the most reliable. Alto Adige and Veneto are the more sensitive to climate changes, with a 50% and 33% decrease in the number of remaining 10 The line of natural snow-reliability varies across the Alpine arc, given the considerable variation in Alpine climate. In Italy the natural line of snow-reliability is currently at 1.500m amsl. 11 Data provided by OECD. 27

28 naturally snow-reliable ski areas. A 600m rise in the line of natural snow-reliability (+4 C by 2100) would decrease the number of naturally snow-reliable ski areas to only around 18% of the present total in the percentage of naturally snow-reliable ski areas in Lombardy (6 out of 33). Considering Italian Alps, Valle d Aosta is the least sensitive of all regions, followed by Lombardy, which is slightly above average (see Table 1 and Chart 1). Region Valle d Aosta Piemonte Lombardy Veneto Trentino Alto Adige Friuli Venezia Giulia ITALy Line of natural snow-reliability (m a.m.s.l.) Ski areas (number) >1500m >1650m (+1 C) >1800m (+2 C) >2100 (+4 C) (current situation) (88%) 20 (80%) 16 (64%) 5 (20%) (56%) 22 (41%) 16 (30%) 6 (12%) (64%) 14 (42%) 11 (33%) 6 (18%) (30%) 12 (26%) 8 (17%) 2 (4%) (74%) 17 (50%) 14 (41%) 4 (12%) (100%) 46 (85%) 23 (43%) 7 (13%) 5 1 (20%) (67%) 131 (52%) 88 (35%) 30 (12%) 100% 100 % 90% 80% 85 % 80 % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 52 % 50 % % 26 % 64 % 43 % 41 % 35 % 33 % 30 % 20% 10% 20 % 17 % 18 % % 4 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0% Current situation + 1 C (LAN 1650m) +2 C (LAN 1800m) +4 C (LAN 2100m) Valle d Aosta Piemonte Lombardy Veneto Trentino Alto Adige Friuli Venezia Giulia ITALy Table 1 and Chart 1. Present and future natural snow-reliability of ski areas in the Italian Alps on a regional level. Source: EURAC Considering data provided by OECD, Lombardy may be one of the less sensitive regions of alpine arc under a climate change scenario. If the line of natural snow-reliability rose by

29 m (plus 4 C by 2100), 67% of the ski areas (4 out of 6) would be naturally snow-reliable. This confirms the previous hypothesis (see Table 2 and Chart 2). Region Line of natural snow-reliability (m a.m.s.l.) Ski areas (number) >1500m >1650m (+1 C) >1800m (+2 C) >2100 (+4 C) (current situation) italy 87 81(93%) 71(82%) 59(68%) 21(24%) Austria (87%) 153(67%) 115(50%) 47(21%) Switzerland (97%) 142(87%) 129(79%) 78(49%) Germany 39 27(69%) 11(28%) 5(13%) 1(3%) France (97%) 123(83%) 96(65%) 55(37%) LOMBARDY 6 6 (100%) 6 (100%) 5 (83%) 4 (67%) 100% 100 % 100 % 90% 87 % 80% % 83 % 79 % 70% 69 % 67 % 68 % 65 % 67 % 60% 55 % 50% 50 % 49 % 40% 37 % 30% 28 % 27 % 24 % 20% 21 % 10% 13 % 0% Current situation + 1 C (LAN 1650m) +2 C (LAN 1800m) +4 C (LAN 2100m) 3 % Lombardy Italy Austria Switzerland Germany France Alpine Arc Table 2 and Chart 2. Present and future natural snow-reliability of ski areas in the European Alps on a national level. The Table and the Chart include also data referring to Lombardy. Source: Climate Change in the European Alps: Adapting Winter Tourism and Natural Hazards Management, OECD

30 On regional scale 12, ski areas in Valtellina would be the least affected under a climate change scenario 13. This is due to the positive effect of the relatively high altitude, which makes it possible to operate on high-elevation sites. With a 4 C warming (an upward shift of 600m from the threshold value) 50% of ski areas 4 out of 8 (Livigno, Bormio, Santa Caterina Valfurva e Valchiavenna) would remain naturally snow-reliable Ski areas in Upper Val Brembana and in Valsassina would remain snow-reliable even if the line of natural snow-reliability rose by 300m. Under the warmest climate change scenario (+4 C) 100% of them becoming unreliable, with subsequently significant impacts on tourism activities in these areas. Under present climate conditions, the ski resort in Schilpario cannot be considered as naturally snow-reliable. As a matter of facts, the upper half of its altitudinal range is located above the threshold value for the line of natural snow-reliability. Other ski resorts in Valle di Scalve and Upper Valle Seriana would be highly affected: main ski operations take place at low altitudes. With a 1 C warming the number of ski areas would drop to 2 (out of 5), with a 4 C warming 100% of them would become unreliable. However, in order to thoroughly analyse a single ski area, additional local factors must be considered in order to account for the complex climatic, topographical and operational reality of each area. For this reason, the results presented are intended to represent broad patterns and do not account for site specific characteristics. With climate change the natural snow-reliability of the ski areas in Valle Camonica will decrease substantially. This is mainly due to the low altitudinal range of the ski areas. Under present climate conditions ski resorts in Borno and Val Palot cannot be considered snowreliable. With a 1 C warming even the ski resort in Montecampione would not guarantee a safe operation and offer the skiers an enjoyable experience. The least sensitive ski resort In Valle Camonica is Adamello ski, which operates at fairly high altitudes. 12 Ski areas which have been considered are listed at page In compliance with OECD analysis, a particular ski area is considered to be naturally snow-reliable if the upper half of its altitudinal range is located above the threshold value for the line of natural snow-reliability. This assumption is based on the fact that the main ski operations usually take place in the higher parts of the ski areas. 30

31 Ski areas Line of natural snow-reliability (m a.m.s.l.) Altitude min-max (m) >1500m >1650m >1800m >2100 (+4 C) (current situation) (+1 C) (+2 C) Valtellina Skiarea Livigno Skiarea Bormio Skiarea Santa Caterina Valfurva Skiarea Val di Dentro Skiarea Aprica/Corteno Golgi Skiarea Valmalenco Skiarea Valgerola Skiarea Valchiavenna TOTALE Valle Camonica Montecampione Impianti spa Borno-Monte Altissimo Adamello ski Val Palot-Pisogne TOTALE Alta Valle Seriana and Valle di Scalve LIzzola Presolana-Monte Pora Spiazzi di Gromo Colere Skiarea Schilpario TOTALE Alta Valle Brembana San Simone Foppolo Carona TOTALE Valsassina Piani di Bobbio TOTALE TOTALE ARCO ALPINO LOMBARDO Legend: = yes. = no. 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 80% 80% 70% 60% 63% 50% 50% 50% 50% 40% 30% 20% 25% 25% 25% 20% 10% 0% 0% Current situation + 1 C (LAN 1650m) +2 C (LAN 1800m) +4 C (LAN 2100m) Valtellina Valle Camonica Alta Valle Seriana and Valle di Scalve Alta Valle Brembana Valsassina Table 3 and Chart 3. Present and future natural snow-reliability of ski areas in the alpine arc in Lombardy on a ski area level. Data about ski areas are at page

32 3.3 Climate change impacts on winter tourism: abandoned ski installations The duration and the amount of snow cover have decreased significantly since the beginning of 1990s. All the regions of alpine arc experienced shorter winter seasons and faster snowmelt during summer with subsequently significant impacts on winter tourism activities in these areas. Some implications have been changes in the timing of season openings, a phenomenon already in evidence in some small and medium-size ski resorts at lower elevations, expansion of snow-making equipment and abandoning ski installations. During 60s and 70s, favourable climate conditions encouraged ski-based activities development, even at fairly low altitudes (about 1.000m amsl). The mild winters of the mid-1980s jeopardised the economical survival of these ski resorts: without favourable natural conditions the operations couldn t be guaranteed and financed, the possibility and/or the financial means to invest (for example in snow-making equipment) decreased and therefore that non-profitable ski resorts have been dismantled. Between 2006 and 2007 Mountain Wilderness an international non-governmental organisation dedicated to preservation of mountain areas listed 20 ski resorts, which have been built during 60s, 70s and 80s, that have been dismantled/abandoned in Lombardy. Ski resorts operating at lower altitudes (less than 1.500m amsl) suffered a reduction of snowfall, which makes it impossible to successfully operate and offer the skiers an enjoyable experience. Ski resorts at higher elevations, such as Entova-Scerscen and Prato Valentino, have been abandoned due to the southern exposure of ski slopes (Prato Valentino) and the retreat of glaciers (see the annex Table). Climate conditions therefore hardly influenced ski resorts, which were obliged to quit tourism activities. 32

33 Abandoned ski installations SKI INSTALLATION MUNICIPALITY DISTRICT YEAR OF CONSTRUCTIO N Entova - Scerscen Chiesa Valmalenco YEAR OF DISMANTLING ALTITUDE (M A.M.S.L.) SO Prato Valentino Teglio SO Alpe Campelli Albosaggia Arnoga Valdidentro Valcanale Ardesio Arera Oltre il Colle Guglielmo Pezzoro Pian del Tivano Sormano Piani d'erna Lecco Piani di Artavaggio Moggio Campelli SO UNREP UNREP (80s) Valdidentro SO 1968 Ski installation is not running from the year REASON Accessibility problems Retreat of glacier Lack of snowfall (southern exposure of ski slpes) Accessibility problems Lack of snowfall Accessibility problems Low profitability Old ski runs (which have not been replaced) Low profitability Ardesio BG UNREP Low profitability Oltre il Colle BG UNREP Tavernole sul Mello 2003 (due to a landslide) BS 70s 1997 ca Decrease in snowfall Death of the owner Old ski runs Accessibility problems Lack of snowfall Sormano CO mid 70s UNREP Lack of snowfall Lecco Moggio LC LC Pialeral Pasturo Pasturo LC Cainallo Esino Lario Alpe Caglio Casargo (cableway) 1991 (skilift) 1955 (first ski installation) 1965 (renewal and construction of second ski installation) Esino Lario LC 70s 1999 (first skilift) 2003/ (skilift) 2000 (cableway) 1980 (first ski installation) 1986 (second ski installation) 1990 (2 skilift. Other ski installatuion are currently running) Casargo LC Lanzo Lanzo Lanzo d'intelvi CO Sighignola Lanzo Crocione Casasco Valcava Torre dei Busi Poggio S. Elsa Laveno Monte Maddalena Brescia San Fermo Endine Lanzo d'intelvi CO 1980 Never completed Casasco CO UNREP Torre di Busi LC Laveno VA 80s 90s Brescia BS Exaggerated expenditure for the renewal of ski installations Lack of snowfall Lack of snowfall Lack of snowfall Old ski runs (which have not been replaced) Old ski runs Lack of snowfall Construction mistakes (technical errors) No swiss government authorization Bankruptcy Lack of snowfall End of the concession for ski slopes Lack of snowfall and tourists Lack of snowfall End of the concession for ski slopes Accessibility problems Lack of tourists Grone BS 70s mid 80s UNREP Low profitability Note: Ski installations that have been closed due to the lack of snowfall are highlighted in the grey cells. 33