Produced for the OFFICE OF NATIONAL DRUG CONTROL POLICY. Cocaine Smuggling in 2011

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1 Cocaine Smuggling in 211

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3 Produced for the OFFICE OF NATIONAL DRUG CONTROL POLICY Cocaine Smuggling in 211

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5 Cocaine Smuggling in 211 Cocaine Flow to Global Markets The amount of cocaine departing South America remained fairly level in 211, from 833 metric tons of cocaine in 21 to 847 metric tons in 211. Most of this cocaine, 64 percent, was likely destined for the United States. Global cocaine flow is calculated by combining movement-based, consumption-based, and production-based cocaine flow estimates. Go-fasts 1 were the leading transportation method used to move 211 Top Ten Cocaine Consuming Countries, Ranked by Prevalence Estimated Numbers of Cocaine Users1 Country-Reported Annual Prevalence Rate2 Change in Prevalence Rate from 27 Spain 823, %.4 Argentina 69,43 2.6% United Kingdom 1,37,8 2.5%.1 Mexico 1,779, %.2 United States 5,332, %.8 Italy 884, %.1 Peru 258, % Bolivia 139,214.8%.9 Germany 484,69.9%.2 Brazil 954,338.7% 1 The number of users is calculated by adding the number of hardcore and moderate users who were assumed to have used in the past month and recreational users who were assumed to have used in the past year, but not in the past month. 2 The annual prevalence rate is a United Nations estimate of the percentage of a country s population who were users of cocaine in the past year. Prevalence rates for Peru and Mexico are obtained from alternative sources. Figure 1. The United States continues to be the top cocaine consumer nation worldwide, but the percentage of the U.S. population assumed to have used cocaine regularly has decreased since A type of maritime craft, typically a 28- to 45-foot open-hull boat with one or more high-powered outboard motors, capable of operating in excess of 25 knots in shallow waters; a go-fast can typically carry up to 2 metric tons of cocaine. 3

6 cocaine out of South America to Central America and the Caribbean Sea, for transshipment. Traffickers predominantly used private vehicles to transport cocaine onward through Central America and Mexico to the United States. Cocaine destined for areas other than the United States was primarily smuggled on commercial maritime containers. In 211 cocaine consumption in the United States declined for the fourth consecutive year, whereas consumption in Africa, Eastern Europe, and Asia slightly increased. The United States accounted for 46 percent of global cocaine consumption, followed by Mexico and Brazil, each of which accounted for 5 percent. Cocaine Consumption The Americas accounted for roughly 7 percent of the world s cocaine consumption in 211. North America continued to account for more than half of global consumption; the United States is the primary consumer even though its consumption has decreased considerably since 27. In 211, Mexico tied Brazil as the second-largest consumer of cocaine. The remainder of the cocaine outside of the Americas was largely consumed in Western Europe. Cocaine Source Zone: South America Colombian cocaine accounted for almost 41 percent of the cocaine available for export to other countries in 211. The amount of cocaine available from Peru accounted for 35 percent, and Bolivia accounted for 25 percent. The amount of cocaine available to depart a source country each year is based on several factors: estimated production, purity, a time lag based on DEA findings 2, 3 to account for processing and transportation delays after harvest, seizures, and in-country consumption. Most Colombian production is destined for the U.S. market, and most Peruvian and Bolivian cocaine is consumed in South America or transported to markets in the Eastern Hemisphere, primarily in Europe. The amount of Colombian cocaine available for export in 211 decreased about 5 percent from 21 levels, and Peruvian and Bolivian cocaine available for export increased 16 percent. 4 2 Ehleringer, J.R., Casale, J.F., Barnette, J.E., Xu, X., Lott, M.J., & Hurley, J.M. (211). Carbon 14 analyses quantify time lag between coca leaf harvest and street-level seizure of cocaine. Forensic Science International, Ehleringer, J.R., Casale, J.F., Barnette, J.E., Xu, X., Lott, M.J., & Hurley, J.M. (211). Carbon 14 calibration curves for modern plant material from tropical regions of South America. Radiocarbon, 53(4),

7 Cocaine Threat by Producing Country, 211 Atlantic Ocean VENEZUELA COLOMBIA GUYANA SURINAME FRENCH GUIANA ECUADOR Pacific Ocean BRAZIL PERU BOLIVIA PARAGUAY CHILE ARGENTINA URUGUAY Global Cocaine Flow Estimate POINTS OF DEPARTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA Argentina The Global Flow Estimate (GFE) of 847 metric tons (MT) is the amount that departed South America to global destinations in 211 in export quality.4 Intraregional Movement of Andean Potential Cocaine Production Percentage Global Flow Estimate Metric Ton Range Bolivia Brazil 2-5% 2-4% 4 MT 24 MT % 19 MT Chile 2-5% 4 MT Colombia 3-45% 255 MT Ecuador 7-13% 84 MT Peru 1-15% 126 MT Venezuela 19-25% 167 MT % 2 MT 2-17 Rest of S. America Total 847 MT Figure 2. An estimated 847 metric tons of export-quality cocaine4 departed South America to external markets in Export-quality cocaine is the average purity of cocaine HCl that departs from South America. It typically includes impurities from the production process and possibly adulterants added after the production process is complete. 5

8 * Demand metric ton valu and the typical cocaine us Cocaine Flow Toward the United States The estimated amount of cocaine available for export from South America toward the United States decreased by roughly 4 percent in 211 from 21, continuing a downward trend that began in 28; this 4-percent decrease is based primarily on Colombian cocaine production data that is consistent with a 5-year trend line of cocaine movement toward the United States. Cocaine production in Colombia, which remains the major source country for the United States, has decreased over the past 4 years. This trend is consistent with declines in U.S. cocaine consumption, decreased by 5 percent from 27 to 211. Despite these trends, in 211 the United States remained the largest cocaine consumer country in the world, accounting for an estimated 46 percent of the world s cocaine consumption. The amount of Colombian cocaine available for export decreased in 211 for the third consecutive year to the lowest level since 2. The purity levels of cocaine produced in Colombia were also at record lows, suggesting traffickers augmented the decreased Colombian cocaine supply with additives. In 211 Colombian cocaine was 73-percent pure, the lowest purity level on record for the second consecutive year. In addition to the lower purity levels, fewer seizures of cocaine in Colombia parallels the decrease in Colombian production: in 211 less cocaine was seized in Colombia than in any year since 22. Movement Toward the United States, ,6 Movement toward the United States (5-year trend line) 1,4 1,2 Metric Tons (MT) 1, Production: Colombian Cocaine Available to Depart Movement: Toward U.S ,44 1,33 1, Figure 3. Indicators of export-quality cocaine departing South America toward the United States have decreased for the past 5 years. 6

9 Departing South America Toward the United States In 211 the Western Caribbean emerged as the preferred path for U.S.-bound cocaine departing South America, surpassing the Eastern Pacific for the first time since The Guajira Peninsula emerged as a major area for maritime departures moving cocaine to Central America. Honduras continued to be the main transit hub for noncommercial air and maritime movements in the Western Caribbean. In addition to using go-fast vessels, traffickers used noncommercial aircraft and submersible vessels to ship cocaine toward the United States. The amount of cocaine documented departing into the Caribbean from the Gulf of Uraba, which straddles Colombia s Choco and Antioquia Departments, and from Colombia s La Guajira Department, near the Venezuelan border, increased significantly in 211. Cocaine Flow Distribution Toward the U.S. by Vector and Conveyance, 211 Pacific Ocean Direct to U.S. <1% ( ) Eastern Pacific 42% ( 8%) 24% Go-Fast 7% 11% Submersible 4% 4% Ecuadorian Panga 3% 2% Fishing Vessel 1% Eastern Pacific-South 4% ( 1%) 3% Submersible 1% 1% Go-Fast 1% <1% Fishing Vessel 1% Gulf of Mexico Western Caribbean 49% ( 6%) 26% Go-Fast 2% 12% Noncommercial Air 1% 7% Submersible 7% 3% Motor Vessel 2% 1% Fishing Vessel 2% Eastern Pacific 46% ( 7%) Hispaniola 4% ( 1%) 3% Go-Fast 2% <1% Noncommercial Air 1% Caribbean Corridor 5% ( ) Mexico/Central America Corridor 95% ( ) Other Caribbean Puerto Rico, Antigua, Northern Lesser Antilles 1% ( ) Increased from 21 Decreased from 21 Same from 21 Data derived from U.S. government event-level movement data Boundary representations are not necessarily authoritative. Figure Recorded 4. Traffickers movement increased toward their use U.S. of decreased Western Caribbean by 19% compared routes to to move 21. cocaine toward the United States in 211. % Distribution Represents Confirmed, Substantiated and High Confidence Suspect (1p) Primary Movement Percentages based on shipments documented departing South America 7

10 Cocaine Movement Through Central America Northern Central America is the primary transshipment area for cocaine moving toward the United States. In 211 up to 329 metric tons of cocaine arrived in northern Central America, mostly Honduras, from South America and southern Central America. A vast majority of the cocaine transshipped along southern Central America s Pacific coast is transferred from maritime vessels to vehicles in Costa Rica for overland movement through Nicaragua. Most cocaine that arrives along the Caribbean coast of southern Central America continues to Honduras on go-fast vessels. Negligible amounts of cocaine arrive along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador or Nicaragua. Central America Maintains its Role as Preferred Transshipment Region for Primary Cocaine Movement, MT HAITI 3 MT MEXICO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 15 MT 329 MT El Ceibo BELIZE Northern Central America La Mesilla 143 MT 275 MT Tecun Uman HONDURAS Gracias A Dios GUATEMALA 49 MT 132 MT EL SALVADOR 27 MT 7 MT NICARAGUA Guajira Peninsula San Andres (Colombia) Pacific Ocean 132 MT 42 MT Western Caribbean Sea 3 MT 5 MT COSTA RICA Southern Central America 137 MT 43 MT Gulf of Uraba PANAMA Punta Burrica Coiba Islands 44 MT VENEZUELA Isla del Rey 86 MT COLOMBIA Pan-American Highway Cocaine arrived from South America via all conveyances after seizures en route Cocaine arrived through Central America after seizures and consumption en route Key Transshipment Points Boundary representations are not necessarily authoritative. Figure 5. Honduras was the main destination of cocaine movement from South America and the primary transit country for subsequent movement from other Central American countries en route to the U.S.-Mexico border. 8

11 U.S. Arrival Zone The amount of cocaine seized on arrival in the United States increased by 7 percent in 211, mostly because of increased seizures in California. An estimated 25.4 metric tons of cocaine was seized in the U.S. Arrival Zone, an increase from about 24 metric tons in 21; of that total, about 1 metric tons of cocaine was seized in California in 211, up from about 6 metric tons in 21. The amount of cocaine available for purchase in major cities in the United States remained steady between 29 and 211 but was less than amounts available before 26, a peak year for cocaine seizures and availability. U.S. cocaine availability declined starting in mid-27, resulting in higher cocaine prices, lower cocaine purity, and reduced demand. The decline from 26 levels stemmed from multiple causes: the Mexican government s anticartel efforts, significant seizures, high levels of violence among Mexican drug trafficking organizations, and diminished cocaine production in Colombia. U.S. Arrival Zone Seizures, , 35, 35.2 MT Kilograms (Kg) 3, 25, 2, 15, 27.3 MT 22 MT 24 MT 24 MT 25.4 MT 1, 5, Southwest Border Area Puerto Rico/USVI Vector Mainland Vector Northern Border Corridor ,284 3,161 22,656 1,929 15,966 2,656 18,529 2,375 18,695 1,842 21,194 3,286 3,75 2,75 3,32 2,871 3, Figure 6. During each of the past 3 years, about 25 metric tons of cocaine has been seized as it arrived in the United States. 9

12 Transoceanic Flow The amount of cocaine departing South America to destinations outside of the Americas increased in 211. Peru and Bolivia are the main cocaine source countries for cocaine consumption outside of the Americas. Elevated cocaine production in Peru and Bolivia correlates with increased consumption in Europe, Asia, and Africa. 211 Global Cocaine Flow Gulf of Mexico 51 69% Metric Tons 546 Metric Tons to the United States 23% 222 Metric Tons Directly to Europe Pacific Ocean 5% 48 Metric Tons to Canada, Australia, Other 3% 29 Metric Tons to Europe via Africa Note: Estimates and global distribution are based on a combination of documented movement, consumption, and production estimates; relying primarily on consumption-based flow estimates for transoceanic markets. Amounts have been adjusted to compensate for rounding errors. Figure 7. Global Cocaine Flow. An estimated 847 metric tons of export-quality cocaine departed South America to global markets in 211. Transatlantic Movement % Distribution Represents Confirmed, Substantiated and High Confidence Suspect (1p) Primary Movement VenezuelaPercentages is a major transshipment country for both U.S. and Europe-bound cocaine. Twenty-five perbased on shipments documented departing South America cent of global cocaine flow departed from Venezuela in 211; 15 percent of that cocaine headed toward the United States and 1 percent headed toward Europe. An estimated 25 percent of all transatlantic cocaine movement in 211 departed Venezuela, primarily aboard fishing vessels or pleasure craft. Ecuador has remained an important departure country for U.S.- and Europe-bound cocaine shipments. It accounted for the largest share of seizures of cocaine destined for Europe of any country most of this cocaine was being shipped in commercial maritime containers. Notably, Ecuador s Port of Guayaquil emerged in 211 as a transshipment hub for cocaine loads destined for European markets. Transpacific Movement Although the demand for cocaine in Australia is still relatively small compared with other global markets (consumption in Asia/Oceania accounts for less than 3 percent of the world s total cocaine consumption), 1

13 it is growing. Australian officials are countering the growth in cocaine consumption by increasing border enforcement. As a result, seizures more than doubled from 27 to 211. Several high-profile, multihundred-kilogram seizures in recent years, along with an exorbitant price for cocaine ($25, a kilogram the highest in the world), suggest a continued increase of trafficking to the island continent. Cocaine Seizures and Prices in Australia Cocaine Seized in or Destined for Australia 1, Kilograms (kg) Average Seizure 111 Kgs 4-fold increase in annual cocaine seizures Average Seizure 591 Kgs Price of Cocaine in Australia Versus Other Key Markets 5,333 $25K Number of Cocaine Users in Thousands 1 6,1 4,8 3,6 2,4 1, ,78 $16.5K $38K 164 $45K $8K 824 $8K 1,37 28 $1.4K Peru $8.5K Argentina Mexico Ghana United States Spain United Kingdom Australia 1 The number of users is calculated by adding the number of hardcore and moderate users who were assumed to have used in the past month and recreational users who were assumed to have used in the past year, but not in the past month. Figure 8. The high price of cocaine in Australia likely is a magnet for increased shipments. Increased seizures correlate with a growing user population in Australia. 11

14 Cocaine Losses Worldwide Cocaine losses include amounts seized by interdiction forces and amounts observed or reported as potentially jettisoned and not recovered by traffickers or interdiction forces. Cocaine losses also can occur aboard a vessel or aircraft that is scuttled or destroyed during interdiction operations. There were 42 metric tons of cocaine losses documented in 211, continuing a downward trend from the 5-year high of 518 metric tons in 29. Overall in 211, the U.S. Transit Zone accounted for the largest decrease in the amount of documented cocaine lost, a 1-percent decrease, principally due to fewer seizures in the Pacific. Cocaine losses in South America (the Source Zone) decreased by 5 percent from 21. While the amount of cocaine seized in the non-u.s. Transit and Arrival Zones decreased, the amount of cocaine seized in South America destined for non-u.s. markets increased over the previous year. Losses from maritime conveyances accounted for approximately 53 percent of the amount of cocaine shipments disrupted worldwide. 4 Cocaine disruption from submersibles increased more than disruptions from any other transport method, nearly triple the amount of 21. Cocaine disrupted from fishing vessels and go-fasts decreased from 21, although at 17 percent of all disruptions, go-fasts still accounted for most of the cocaine disrupted from maritime vessels. Containerized shipments accounted for 12 percent of disruptions. Worldwide Cocaine Seized/Disrupted, Metric Tons (MT) Non-U.S. Arrival Zone Internal U.S U.S. Arrival Zone Non-U.S. Transit Zone Transit Zone toward U.S. Markets Source Zone Note: Totals may not add up exactly due to rounding Figure 9. The amount of cocaine seized and disrupted continued to decline in Drugs that are jettisoned and not recovered or drugs that are believed to be destroyed or otherwise removed from the cocaine supply chain. In addition to cocaine seizures, disruptions are a component of cocaine losses. 12

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16 Produced for the OFFICE OF NATIONAL DRUG CONTROL POLICY PCN 31646