SECRET BETTING CLUB MAGAZINES SPECIAL PREVIEW

Transcription

1 SECRET BETTING CLUB MAGAZINES SPECIAL PREVIEW TABLE OF CONTENTS Sports Betting Tipster Ratings... 2 Sports Betting Best Buy Tables... 3 Sports Betting Tipsters In Focus... 6 Full Review: Paul Jones Private NH Season Service... 8 Full Review: Gorans live betting Live betting: Is it the future? Find value bets with this powerful free ratings system Disclaimer & Copyright Notice WELCOME TO THIS SECRET BETTING CLUB MAGAZINE SPECIAL PREVIEW Thank you for downloading this special preview of the Secret Betting Club (SBC) monthly magazine. With this preview you can get a taste of the sort of content we produce every month for our Secret Betting Club members. We couldn t possibly fit in everything that we offer to our members in this small preview and there are many more benefits of membership including: Monthly Tipster Profit Report: All members receive a special monthly report dedicated to reporting and rating all the best existing tipsters we monitor. Find out who you should follow, who is in form and who offers the best value for money. Includes details on our best ranked tipsters those who make up our Hall of Fame. Free Strategies & Systems: All members receive a number of free strategies and systems such as our amazingly profitable 4 Pronged Attack racing system. Exclusive Tipster Discount Club: We take no commission from our reviews so are able to pass on any exclusive discounts in full for our subscribers. Save hundreds, even thousands on tipster fees with an SBC membership. Vibrant Members Forum: Get free tips from fellow members and commercial tipsters on our private members forum. Betting Guides: From beginners guides to advice for seasoned pros you ll find information to take your betting to the next level. A full run-down on all the benefits of being a Secret Betting Club member can be found at where you can also sign-up for instant membership. Page 1

2 MAGAZINE EXTRACT: Racing Tipster Ratings Each month we update all our members on the latest ratings we apply to both horse racing and sports betting tipsters. This enables you to quickly find the top tipsters alongside all our exclusive discounts and visit our online key facts page for each service. Below you can find a sample of just what we produce each month for our members interested in sports betting services only. SPORTS BETTING TIPSTER RATINGS THE LATEST SECRET BE TTING CLUB RATINGS TABLE The following is a list of those sports betting services, which we have reviewed in full in a past SBC Magazine and the current SBC rating awarded to them (Scale between 1 and 5). Each tipster is judged on a range of measures including profitability, practicality, reliability, customer service, longevity, odds availability and our own confidence in them. Those services highlighted in blue are those we recommend as part of our Hall of Fame our list of which we consider the best sports betting tipsters. Service Name Description SBC Rating SBC Saving SBC Key Facts Skeeve Non-league football betting expert 4.5/5 Web Link Name for subs only Ratings based football tips 4 Yes Web Link Name for subs only Top-level European football tipster 3.5 Web Link Name for subs only Scottish football tips 3.5 Yes Web Link Name for subs only Football & general sports tips 3 Web Link Name for subs only Rugby specialist tipster 3 Yes Web Link Name for subs only Free tennis & football tips 3 Web Link Name for subs only Northern Europe football tips 3 Yes Web Link Name for subs only Ex-footballer turned tipster 3 Yes Web Link Name for subs only Regular football bets 2.5 Web Link Name for subs only Three football tipsters combined 2.5 Web Link Name for subs only Long-term football/darts/tennis tips 2.5 Web Link Name for subs only Scottish football tips 2.5 Yes Web Link Name for subs only Selective Darts advice 2.5 Web Link Name for subs only Selective European football bets 2.5 Web Link Name for subs only Regular tennis advice 2 Yes Web Link Table Key - SBC Rating is the overall score out of 5 currently awarded by our team. Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club. Page 2

3 MAGAZINE EXTRACT: Best Buy Tables SPORTS BETTING BEST BUY TABLES SPORTS BETTING TIPSTERS RANKED In the SBC magazines you can also find a range of specially produced Best Buy Tables based on how different members may wish to prioritise a tipster based on their circumstances such as The best overall tipster The best value for money tipster The best on a budget We do this by breaking down these categories into two: Horse Racing & Sports Betting so you can concentrate on the type of tipster you wish to follow. We also use a number of unique ratings to assess services as follows: SBC Ratings: Our Subjective ratings taking into account many factors beyond results (five best). Average cost: Based on the price of the lowest multi month option (Usually three months). Odds: A score of 5 generally means the service proofs to Betfair SP or SP. 1 means odds move very quickly Return on Investment: Total points profit divided by the total amount staked. AKA Profit on Turnover. ROI+: The ROI multiplied by the number of bets. A high score rewards those tipsters who have maintained a good ROI over a large number of bets. BEST OF THE BEST This table shows what most people want to know Just who the very best tipsters actually are. As usual, we break this down into two elements The best horse racing tipster The best sports betting tipster In the table below you can see an example as taken from a recent best sports betting tipster table. Although all but the first tipster have their names blanked out (this information is available to full SBC members only) you should get the idea. The table shows profits from a 5,000 bank over different time frames. The annualised returns are the all time returns divided by the number of months the service has been operating. Please note the 5,000 bank is used for illustration purposes only, such an investment may not be suitable for everybody. Page 3

4 As you can see the top tipster makes an average annualized profit of 8706 from just a 5000 bank, whilst many other of our top rated tipsters make large sums of profit each year as well. VALUE FOR MONEY This second table shows you returns on a 5,000 after annualised fees are taken into account, therefore showing the tipster with the best value for money return. This is important because the tipster that convert our fictional 5000 into the biggest possible return, is the one that we want to follow. Again its broken down into horse racing and sports betting for you to choose the type of tipster you want to follow. Please note that once again, the 5,000 bank is used for illustration purposes only, such an investment may not be suitable for everybody. Page 4

5 BEST ON A BUDGET This final example table shows you the best tipsters who have small subscription fees and so are the best for those of you on a budget. Let s face it, a tipster can be amazingly profitable but if they are charging 200 a month, it is out of most people s budget! Thankfully as you can see from the table below, the cost of most tipsters ranges from 17 to 30 a month on average a much more manageable amount. The tipsters in our best on a budget tables are ranked by our specialist ROI+ calculation taken from different time perspectives. We publish the above tables for both sports betting and horse racing tipsters every month for Secret Betting Club members. Issue Notes: ROI = Return On Investment. AKA profit on turnover. Total profits divided by total amount of money staked. Page 5

6 Magazine Extract: Sports Tipster Commentary In our monthly magazines, you ll also find editorial updates on the highs and lows of the tipster world via our tipster commentary section. This helps you put any performance statistics in context. Once again these are split up into two sports betting and horse racing to help you choose the type of tipster you wish to focus on. Please note in this example taken from a recent sports betting section, the tipster names have been deleted as this is for Secret Betting Club members only. SPORTS BETTING TIPSTERS IN FOCUS ANALYSIS ON THE LATEST PERFORMANCE FROM OUR MONITORED SPORTS BETTING TIPSTERS As any football manager worth his salt will tell you there are no gongs handed out in August and September and as a result the first phase of a new season is always something of a phoney war. At this time of year, the stats guys can struggle without a useful sample of new trends and data and the services that specialise in working with the evidence of their eyes should show a massive edge especially so if they specialise in a particular niche which has seen dramatic changes in both players and clubs finances over the summer. What is immediately apparent to someone on the ground can take a good while to filter through to both the hard-pressed odds compilers and the tipsters analysing form from afar. In this respect it will always pay to keep in mind that the season is a marathon rather than a sprint and some of our monitored services must be clinging to that concept like a life raft in a stormy sea right now. Not least XXXX Tipster A They ve had a slow start to the season following on from an underwhelming campaign last time. This inescapable fact puts Tipster A at a bit of a crossroads as far as punters are concerned. Bad luck is a punting cliché but, taken in isolation, last minute goals certainly haven t gone in XXXX favour. A 94th minute equaliser for Stoke, an 84th minute equaliser for Hertha and a perfectly good 89th minute winner for Hannover ruled out for no good reason led to a near four point swing from just six minutes of football. The worst of times and the best of times are always falling away in life and in betting and next week the boot will just as likely be on the other foot for XXXXX. I am sure he will stick to his guns and we ll see how he goes. The Spanish-based service Tipster B is something we will be taking a good re-look at in the imminent future, especially now their paid model has settled in (the service was initially wholly free of charge as an extended trial). Our initial impressions of the transition to a subscription service (for tennis only, their less frequent football bets are still free) is good. Tipster B made a 7.7 pt profit in August (13.23% ROI), which was needed after losses of 10.5 pts combined from April and May. June was a month off, while July made a tiny profit. After another month or so we will be in a better position to re-evaluate but so far so good. Page 6

7 The previously SBC reviewed Tipster C is potentially a great Rugby expert to follow for the World Cup. He has been a real live Hall of Fame candidate for a while now and we have decided to upgrade the service to full Hall of Fame status. It is a moot point in a way as membership is currently closed but you will be first to know if and when spaces become available in the future. Tipster C made 3.26 pts (27% ROI) in August and 2.53 in July (28.80%) and he is in very good form in a sport where tipsters often struggle to consolidate good periods of form. Long-term record that record is up to 14% ROI which over 565 bets is a very decent haul indeed. These are good numbers especially so for rugby where most handicap selections are between 1.91 and 2.1 in price. Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club. Page 7

8 Magazine Extract: Full Review Example Each month we also review a number of new tipster services and publish our findings in the SBC magazines. Below you can find a full example review of the Paul Jones service, which helps to demonstrate the level of research applied when we assess racing tipsters. Don t forget either that the Secret Betting Club is 100% independent, so you can be assured that what we say is the honest truth. Unlike other review services we do not take fees or a cut of sales for writing a positive review. FULL REVIEW: PAUL JONES PRIVATE NH SEASON SERVICE REVIEWER: DAN JONES BUILD AN ANTEPOST PORTFOLIO FOR THE WORLD CUP OF RACING Service Name: Paul Jones NH Season Service Contact: Paul Jones Telephone: n/a Website: Info Page. Sign up Page. Sports Covered: Horseracing Bet Frequency: Weekly with more bets in the lead up to Cheltenham. Additional bet ideas each weekend. Pricing: 240 / with SBC discount. SBC Discount: Available for SBC Members Only Bet Delivery: Website log in. Service In Brief: The primary offering is the weekly National Hunt analysis building up the Cheltenham festival, with specific ante post bets put up. In addition you also have access to Paul s weekend betting note ideas though there are no formal bets advised here. There has been a strong performance at past Cheltenham festivals, but will best suit those people with a particular interest in ante post betting and Cheltenham in particular. Service Details: We first looked at Paul Jones service prior to the 2011 Cheltenham festival in SBC 58, so it s worth a recap of the service and its main offering. Paul Jones, has been author of the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide since 2000 and running the dedicated Antepost tipping service since Starting in October, Paul builds up to the biggest festival in the racing calendar by targeting each major race in turn and picking out big early prices. The key here appears to be in plotting a particular horse s route to the major races and getting ahead of any good runs that might shorten the price considerably. For those not too familiar with racing, this is rather like betting on the outcome of the world cup final based on the performance of teams in the qualifier stages. The main risk is that the horse doesn t make it through to the finals (i.e. doesn t start the race or is withdrawn following a poor race in the run up), in which case you lose your stake without a race being run. Paul s analysis appears to combine statistics with form reading and perhaps most importantly, reading between the lines as trainers talk about their horses in the buildup. Subscribers access the Bettrends website at 7.00 p.m every Monday with a PIN number to obtain the info which, on average, is between 5,000-7,500 words each week. This will increase to daily s within the final seven days leading up to the Festival. Page 8

9 Suggested bets are mostly Each Way for the bigger prices and win only for the shorter priced bets. Things are fairly straight forward from this perspective though one or two non standard X horse to start as favourite -style bets are advised which might only be available with one bookmaker. As part of the National Hunt service you also get a detailed summary of the weekend s racing. This appears to be well informed commentary that could serve to help you find your own bets or act as a filter. We are normally sceptical of such information based services as it is hard to quantify their value, but thankfully we can assess the performance of Paul s ante post bets as a indicator of his betting ability. In addition, you also receive full advice throughout the festival itself as well as late info, on the day, betting tips. Service Proofing: We have only proofed the results for the 2011 Cheltenham festival, but have seen nothing in this to make us doubt the accuracy of previous year s results. We proofed results to advised and level stakes. Bets for 2011 were sent as advised stakes though the service is advertising results to level stakes. For consistency we shall report on result to level stakes going forward. Service Results: Over the last four years, Paul s Cheltenham portfolio service has returned an excellent 70.7 level stakes profit from 128 points staked for a total ROI of 55.23%. Our records differ slightly from Weatherby s but in conversations with Paul, this appears to come down to the treatment of one or two races Each Way place terms and is nothing significant in our opinion. When we analyze the distribution of results, we see that 2008 was a monster year producing an ROI that was quite unsustainable s profits were so large that they made 2009 s excellent points from 31 (53.39% ROI) look pedestrian. The service has effectively been break even for the last two festivals. Year P/L Staked ROI % % % % Total % Page 9

10 There are a number of ways to look at the distribution of results so far and what it means for the service. The fact is that it is very difficult to read much into results either way over just 128 bets and with prices often in the region of 20/1 plus, you have to expect a lot of variance in returns. Therefore it would also help to look at how often Paul beats the market by bagging juicy early prices that can often more than halve by the time of the actual race. Secondly, we can look at how often Paul gets horses in the right area. In both of these, Paul s record stands up well to further scrutiny. More often than not, the horses shorten in price with a number of horses going second in the break even 2011 season. A few cases in point include Mr Gardner in the 2011 Jewson Novice s Chase advised at 20/1, but who went off at 6/1 on the day. A particular highlight last year was Aimigayle advised at 40/1 Each Way. This went off at 25/1, finishing second having traded as low as 3/1 in running. In the four years of tipping on the Fulke Walyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase, Paul has recorded a loss of -5 points. However when you look at the odds on the day for the horses that eventually ran, all four went off as favourite or 2 nd favourite with odds movements as follows: 16/1 to 7/1, 14/1 to 7/2, 16/1 to 15/2 and 16/1 to 11/2. This gets to the crux of how to get the best of this service which we shall discuss in the conclusion. Service Practicality: Backing each selection blindly would be relatively simple but do be aware of odds movements as bookies can be especially prone to cut prices on early gambles like this. These quick movements are unlikely to be more than a couple of notches, but could make all the difference in making a break even year a loss making one if following blindly. Selections are only put up via the website which is another negative as SMS alerts could be absolutely crucial here. Service In Summary: Ante post betting is a specialist arena, but Paul Jones does indeed appear to be a true expert in this field when it comes to Cheltenham. Festival betting success does require lady luck on your side, but if you can find ante post bets at 25/1 that go off closer to 10/1 you are putting the odds in your favour. Paul can clearly spot value as evidenced by the number of horses that go close at odds that often halve in price. However, you still need some luck to convert that value into actual profits. If a horse advised at 25/1 goes off at 10/1, you got a great value price, but you re still ultimately on a 10/1 horse. Rather than blindly backing each selection, we believe that the service is best utilized to help you build your own book for the festival. If you bag enough juicy prices early on, then you have a number of trading options available to you such as hedging on the day or trading in running from an advantageous position. There is good value in all the accompanying information, but this is still not likely to suit the small stakes gambler. Overall we d recommend the ante post service for the active, more experienced bettor looking to create an ante post portfolio for the biggest racing meeting in the UK. Page 10

11 SBC Discount: 10%. Details of this are available in the full members magazine Service Ratings: 0-5 with 5=Excellent and 0=Awful Returns: 3.5/5 Risk: 4 Cost: 2.5 Transparency: 4 Suggested portfolio weighting: 3 Overall: 3.5 Rating: Buy Magazine Extract: 2 nd Full Review Example As a second example of what you can expect each month in our magazines, here is a recent review of the Goran s Live betting football service. FULL REVIEW: GORANS LIVE BETTING REVIEWER: DAN JONES & GREG GORDON IN PLAY BETTING FROM FORMER SWEDEN U21 INTERNATIONAL Service Name: Gorans Winners Contact: Goran or Jason Telephone: N/A Website: Sports Covered: Live Football Bet Frequency: Regular bets throughout each week Pricing: 119 Euros per month SBC Discount: 40% discount for SBC members In October 2010 Goran s Winners began offering its subscribers free access to live betting picks on top of their regular subscription. The experiment has been a great success as you ll see below. Not least, because the trial has been surfing the wave of a nascent interest in all things live and in play at the moment either Asian bookies or Ray it s allll abaaaaaat the in play Winstone suddenly have a lot to answer for. Previously, in service terms, Goran Trpevski has always focused on 1X2bets, Asian Handicap prematch betting and an antepost portfolio. As a former player though, (Goran is a prematurely retired, one-time Malmo and Sweden U21 midfielder), you d assume that his playing experience would give him a massive edge when evaluating live pictures and prices. And the results thus far, and my own arcane football conversations with Goran, over the months, appear to bear that impression out. Indeed, Goran personally suggests that traditional match bets (whether 1x2 or Asian Handicaps) rank behind both his antepost calls and his live bets when it comes to his own personal betting profits and it now seems like a natural point in time for us to be looking at this under-exposed area of Goran s offer more closely. Page 11

12 As we ve said before, Goran s greatest strength is his ability to think laterally. His mind is a sharp processor of information and he has a real skill at applying the big picture knowledge he has at his fingertips to the immediate specifics of choosing bets. So, for instance, he is especially adept at seeking out those players vulnerable to being booked due to their manager s tactics or say, the likely spread of offside decisions in a game. This sort of refined big picture-small picture analysis is exactly the kind of stuff that is perfect for in play betting. Especially when so much of the market movements are governed by bots and quants taking a statistical view on the general efficiency of a market at a specific point in time rather than what is actually happening on the screen. Football, despite what some folk insist, isn t played on a spreadsheet, if it was we could all be millionaires, and there is a clear skill (and profit) in interrogating often fatuous statistical generalisations with genuine human experience gleaned from watching and ideally playing thousands of games. It is Goran s view, and mine too, that stats are only ever as good as the number crunchers analysing them. In the specifics of a here and now situation, a one off game, the person with a true sense of what they are watching (a full-back who is out of his depth, a key man carrying an injury or a back four that are vulnerable to pace, say) surely has a massive edge over someone basing their predictions on the crutch of general statistical probability? Or looked at another way, someone fine tuning any stats based bets based on what they see in front of them will surely be at an advantage. As Goran suggested to us in our End of Season Review: Live betting is my A game and this will be a thing for the future. I believe live picks will take more and more space in the betting world. If I have an edge (and I have one of course) in the normal picks, then this edge clearly becomes magnified and more obvious in live betting where there is also greater liquidity too. IS LIVE BETTING THE FUTURE? As technology improves, live betting is set to be an increasingly popular betting medium. You just have to look at the money Betfair has poured into this market with its Cash Out facility and the Bet365 in play adverts hitting the airwaves at half time (everywhere) for evidence of this. The bookmakers like the idea of in play betting precisely because of the low opinion they hold of their clients who they generally view as impulsive, inherently biased and erratic. But for those, like us, who set our stall out to be against the crowd, in play betting represents a massive opportunity. Until now though, one practical impediment for tipsters has been an inadequate delivery method for tips and commentary in real time. As a pioneer in this field, this is something that Goran s Winners appears to be doing more or less, very well. Currently Goran s members simply log into their website and are directed to the live betting page. Here the betting window displays any live picks with audio alerts provided when a new pick is put up online. The screenshot below shows what this looks like. Page 12

13 The majority of the live betting action takes place on Champions League midweek, a Saturday or a Sunday, which obviously won t suit everyone. alerts, on the morning of the games, provide some notice as to when a live betting session is likely to go ahead, but you do need to be flexible as Goran will make last minute decisions based on team news and quick calls fresh from the heat of battle. My right hand man, Gregor has been monitoring the service for us in terms of its userfriendliness and practicalities of use. Generally speaking his experience is a positive one. He says: Obviously the nature of in play betting means that you can be sitting around for a while before anything happens and sometimes of course there is simply no bet. However, if you are watching the games anyway it is a pretty pleasant, unobtrusive, addition to your viewing. In terms of the practicality of getting the bets on as Goran s members scramble to snare the same price following an in play alert, Gregor again, reports no real problems. He says: I have been using a Bet 365 account, as Goran generally recommends, to follow these bets. I haven t had any issues to report as thanks to the Asian influence in play (online and on the exchanges) the liquidity levels are generally superior to prematch. It is probably possible to better Goran s advised prices if you are quick on the ball and have all the live prices at your fingertips via or the like (Click the live game odds). My impression is that a bit of trial and error could see you find your own way to make the most of Goran s info for yourself. In that respect, Goran s live bets are probably best suited to intermediate and relatively experienced punters who can quickly navigate between bookmakers sites to hoover up the value on offer. The picks are taken on high profile leagues across Europe with a mix of Asian Handicap bets and over/ under goals betting. The over/ under bets can be particularly interesting as the line changes throughout the game. Over 3.75 type odds lines are not uncommon as bookmakers adjust their in play lines. Bets are made to expire at kick off and Goran is a backer rather than a trader or a layer. A fact that again, makes these live bets straightforward to follow. Practical Considerations Not all bookmakers offer in play betting, but an increasing number are doing so, especially the Asian and Asian-influenced bookmakers (people like SBOBet, Pinnacle, Bet 365, 188Bet and the like). Odds availability is difficult to assess, particularly as the odds change to reflect the events on the pitch not just the weight of money coming in but Gregor s comments, taken at face value, are heartening in this respect. You won t just be able to rely on Betfair for Goran s bets unfortunately because the liquidity for in play Asian Handicap and non standard goal line bets is poor. Page 13

14 Gregor s Recommendations In our first look at Goran s Live bets Dan Jones suggested: On the practical side, there could be more communication. The instruction is to keep an eye on alerts until Goran says otherwise, which is fine in theory, but regular updates on the day s progress would be useful. E.g. Still 3 hours of football to go today, I ll be here until 7PM, I m currently looking at the Manchester United game. Sometimes there is just 1 live pick for an entire day s football, so be aware that there is no guarantee of action. Clearer instructions on where to get the suggested odds or alternatives would certainly help as without regular updates on what Goran has is eye on in the short term, it can be a scramble to find the bet and get the best odds before the game changes. Gregor has some cogent things to say on this issue currently. Ideally, this service would be available via a restricted twitter feed whereby clients would get the bets on their phone or computers as required. As there can be a lot of waiting around in live betting it makes sense to have these Goran Live Bets exploit all the mobile technology available. Nobody wants to be chained to a computer for hours with the promise of a bet that may not materialise on the day. Gregor would also like to see someone else working with Goran to act as his link to members, helping seek out odds lines and keep members abreast of what is happening in the games Goran is watching and where his thoughts are at, at specific times. He says: I realise that Goran requires his concentration for watching the games with minimal distraction so surely an assistant of some kind (probably on the end of a phone somewhere) makes sense. What Goran has in place is adequate, good even. However, there is the potential to really push the boat out with this service and really make it something unique. Following on from this point, I would also like to see Goran do a recap of his live bets at the end of the week. Obviously time is of the essence during the action but it always works well when services explain their specific decisions at a later date for members. It helps to build confidence in a service and members also get something from the analysis that they can take into their own betting. GORANS LIVE RESULTS Results to date are as follows: Bets Stakes Profit ROI Since Oct % Bets Stakes Profit ROI Last Six Months % Page 14

15 As you can see from the above graph and tables it has generally all been pretty much plain sailing for Goran s Live Bets with the three month, annual and full bet records all displaying a fairly consistent 15%+ ROI. The graph also suggests a pleasing upward trajectory too and the losing runs aren t too bad. There is a blip around bet 36 to bet 50, but in general it is the usual nip and tuck you d expect in live betting. A good analyst (like Goran) will still take reversals, strikers will miss sitters, goalposts will come to the rescue etc but, generally speaking, if their eyes tend to see the truth of a game they should have a good chance of predicting accurately what might happen next on a fairly consistent basis. As Goran suggests in play betting and prematch betting are markedly different beasts. The analysis involved is subtly different, sometimes even massively different, but there is obviously a massive advantage in seeing what you are betting on unfold. Goran says: Live betting is about truly reading and understanding this game. Pre-match 1x2 bets are always more speculative. A lot of the time betting before the match kicks off is about guessing who will play and how they will play on the day. Live betting is here and now. We can see how the teams are playing tactically, we can tell exactly what the line-ups are and we can see if the game is closed off or open and attacking. Really prematch and live betting are impossible to compare. The two disciplines prematch and live are basically different sports. OUR CONCLUSIONS Whereas around 200 bets would still be a small sample for a pre-match bettor, I reckon that it gives a fair sense of how a live bettor is likely to respond time and time again. As Goran suggests the value in prematch betting lies in better being able to interpret likely future scenarios than the bookmakers (such as the effect of team news, playing conditions, weather and general form). In a live scenario these questions have been largely answered for the most observant students of the game and success comes down to better evaluating what is happening right now (ie the public domain information) better than the crowd and better than the bookies. Live betting doesn t come down to contacts, information or stats. Live betting is really an exercise in interpretation and prediction based on prices. I would expect live bettors to fall basically into two camps profitable or unprofitable, and also for their ability (or lack thereof) to become evident over a much smaller sample of bets. Page 15

16 One negative of this service is the price 119 Euros per month. We are however working on an SBC Discount Club deal for members and we are hopeful of a reduction. However, the live bets should profit from decent liquidity in the in play markets and with the Asian bookmakers driving the in play sector of the market betting restrictions could be less of an issue (using the likes of Pinnacle and SBOBet) than it is backing 1X2 selections pre-match. Another factor here is the nature of in play betting and as it is a style of betting based wholly on the interpretation of information live on screen we d expect Goran to maintain the ROI and kind of graph he has shown thus far. Losing runs will doubtless happen but we expect them to be similar to the runs seen so far with blips punctuating a nice upward trend. While Goran s ability as a live analyst can be pretty much taken as read, it s still early days with Goran s live betting service. We, at SBC, certainly believe there is a lot of potential here and we will be working with Goran to implement a lot of the suggestions Gregor has fed back to us from his trial, where we can. A twitter feed and some additional help on matchdays from a researcher/administrator could certainly take Goran s Live Bets to a whole new level, in a live betting arena that remains largely uncharted water for tipsters. As we suggest in the companion Introduction to Live Betting article in this issue, we certainly predict massive growth in this area. With that in mind, we are working with Goran to create a special Live Betting offer for SBC members. Once that is finalised we will drop everyone an with full details. Service Ratings: 0-5 with 5=Excellent and 0=Awful Returns: 3.5/5 Risk: 3 Cost: 1 Transparency: 4 Suggested portfolio weighting: 3 Overall: 3 Rating: Buy ******Want more reviews?******** We usually review two to three sports tipsters in each edition. Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club. Page 16

17 ----- Magazine Extract: Introduction to In Play Betting Each month we also feature betting strategies, how to guides and other articles that help you to improve your betting. If you don t just want to follow tipsters, but also want to build up your own knowledge and experience, these articles are a great place to start. As an example, below you can find a sample from a recent article on how to make money from one of the biggest growth areas in play live betting LIVE BETTING: IS IT THE FUTURE? PART II AN INTRODUCTION TO IN PLAY BETTING Take a look at the likes of Betfair or Bet 365 s websites and you ll find endless in play markets offered across a wide array of sports, such as football, rugby, golf and the like. Basically anything where there are televised pictures to accompany the fluctuating betting odds. In Play betting is the term given to bets placed while an event is live and on-going. What To Bet On An example of some typical in play markets in football would include: match result, over/under 2.5 goals, next team to score, next goalscorer (player), correct scores and odds on a sending off. How It Works In play betting offers a distinct advantage to gamblers who are both watching the event and are connected to the internet with a high speed broadband link, as they can often take advantage of a pivotal moment occurring within a game. It is for this reason that both the online exchanges and bookmakers insist on a time delay between the bet being struck and accepted in their markets. Typically there is an eight second countdown to you placing a bet and it being accepted by the layer. Bookmakers will temporarily suspend a market if there is an occurrence that is likely to cause a substantial change in the odds. In football, that could include if a team are awarded a penalty, a goal or a red card. The market will then re-form with new prices after the incident, leading to the market suspension, has been resolved. Strategic Thinking: Use The In Play One clear advantage of in-play betting is that if you miss a pre-match price you were desperate to back, or can t get your full stake placed, your patience will often be rewarded in play. If luck runs with you and if you can afford to wait say minutes before you bet on the side you fancy the odds will drift to a more palatable price (as long as the game remains 0-0, of course). This kind of strategy (cross your fingers and hope to exploit a drift) is also a decent alternative to taking a poor value handicap or Asian handicap bet where the start offered or the price does not represent value. Another potential slant, is when a favourite goes a goal behind and there is a massive overreaction to them conceding an early goal, you can either look to back the pre-match favourite or lay the underdog who have just taken the lead dependent on the time elapsed and your view of the game. Of course, it helps if you re watching the pictures and have a good sense of whether the team that have fallen behind are capable of battling back. There will be countless Page 17

18 instances of this every week where a strong favourite fall behind early to a sucker punch goal scored by weak opponents. In Play And Its Markets My sense is that as a rule, In Play football markets on the exchanges specifically, are conservative by nature, with most punters wedded to the idea of the status quo. There also appears to be a related over reaction to game changing events in a match such as a goal, red card or significant injury. If you can correctly and consistently anticipate change in games you should almost, by definition, be able to make a profit from in play betting. In tennis, not a game I follow, for example, the odds fluctuate dramatically, swinging wildly after service breaks and key points. For betting in-play on tennis matches, an established strategy is to look to selectively back pre-game favourites who has fallen one set down. Clearly though this is a strategy to be used selectively and you need both a good basic knowledge of the sport you are betting on and quick, accurate judgement for that matter to be sure of turning a profit long term. Bookies love in play betting, precisely because it appeals to the worst get rich quick instincts of punters but the flip side of that if you are patient, quick witted and unemotional in your judgements you stand a very good chance of making your experience pay with live betting. If you've previously followed the live odds movements of a game before, you will have correctly surmised, no doubt, that that they're the product of a computer model that is then manually adjusted by the odds compilers in line with the weight of money and sentiment in the market. At kick-off prices are generally efficient, but as the game progresses the odds can take a bit of an adhoc cast especially where games are poised and bookies traders are reluctant to take a strong line that flies in the face of the pre-match prices. Sometimes good and bad teams both excel and flop outside of the bounds of normal expectations but you ll find that those that set the lines, or establish the exchanges markets with their wagers are generally reluctant to confront their inherent prejudices. If you sense that these prejudices fly in the face of what is unfolding on your screen then congratulations, you have spotted an opportunity. Now all you need to work out is whether the prices available are greater than true odds should be - and strike accordingly. ******Want the full article?******** Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club. Page 18

19 Magazine Extract: Free Football Betting System In our monthly magazines, we also regularly feature betting systems that members can apply themselves to make money without tipsters. Here is a sample of a recently produced article discussing a simple, yet powerful football ratings system that made a small fortune for our members in the 2010/11 football season. FIND VALUE BETS WITH THIS POWERFUL FREE RATINGS SYSTEM SIMPLE AND EASY TO USE SYSTEM FOR THE EPL In the full edition, we released details of a simple, free, yet incredibly powerful betting system that anyone can follow. We also release the full weekly qualifiers each week exclusively for Secret Betting Club members. TESTING THE SYSTEM 2010/2011 results: The ratings had an excellent season in 2010/11. The following table is based on results betting 1pt level stakes whenever there was value according to the predicted outcome and available odds. This made no account of the size of the value. Bets Profit ROI All bets % Homes % Aways % ROI: Return On Investment This is your total profit divided by your total turnover of stakes. Strike rate: This is the percentage of winning bets. As good as these results appear, it certainly wasn t a smooth ride with the profits coming in fits and starts, usually as big winners were landed. Page 19

20 Home vs Away It s interesting to note the variance in returns between the home bets and the away bets. They both ended up with fairly similar figures, but throughout the season there was certainly a contrast in performance. Up until half way into the season, you might have been tempted to just stick with the away bets, with the home bets going absolutely nowhere. However, just as the homes peaked, so the aways troughed. It shows how luck can still play a huge role in a sequence of results even over 150 bets. Had you dropped the home bets half way into the season you would have certainly regretted it. BIGGER VALUE, BIGGER PROFITS The results mentioned above don t make any allowances for value. This means you would have been placing a bet even if there was less than 2% value in the available odds. Logically, focusing just on high value picks where there is a greater discrepancy between the prediction and the available odds should produce better results. Does it? Bets Profit ROI >10% Value % >20% Value % Indeed, just focusing on matches offering 20% value would have increased your profits and boosted your ROI to an incredible 72%. ******Want the full article?******** Find out more by becoming a member of the Secret Betting Club. Page 20

21 DISCLAIMER & COPYRIGHT NOTICE The views expressed within this article are based on the authors experience alone. Any money used within the services mentioned is done so at the risk of the individual. If you are affiliated with any of the services mentioned and have any questions regarding the points we raise we welcome your correspondence. Secret Betting Club is for information & education purposes only and does not represent financial advice. There is a risk of loss in betting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is our intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, we cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgment whatsoever. Literary copyright for this document and all the articles herein are held by Minerva Publishing Limited. Page 21