REVIEW: GT TIPS REVIEWER: NICK WARD PROMISING SPORTS BETTING SERVICE RUN BY TEAM OF INDUSTRY CONTACTS

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1 REVIEW: GT TIPS REVIEWER: NICK WARD PROMISING SPORTS BETTING SERVICE RUN BY TEAM OF INDUSTRY CONTACTS Service Name: GT Tips Contact: George Taylor Website: Sports Covered: Horse racing, rugby, football, tennis, golf and smaller volume of bets on other sports Bet Frequency: Approx 120 a month for racing, for rugby (others 100) Pricing: 25 a month, 50 a quarter, 150 one year Bet Delivery: Service In Brief: A sports betting service provided by a team of bookmaking industry contacts, headed up by George Taylor. A wide range of sports are covered, with rugby and racing forming the two major elements. Service in Detail: A brief trawl through GT Tips website can be a bit daunting at first, simply down to the sheer breadth of sports and volume of selections offered up by this ambitious, evolving service. Initially set up by George Taylor, who works as a rugby trader/odds compiler within the bookmaking industry, GT Tips started life as a free service on 4 May After a highly successful first year, George and his team introduced a subscription-based Members Area with members paying for their Premium Tips, whilst also retaining the Free Betting Tips area. George s regular team is currently made up of seven contacts with a variety of industry experience as market makers, odds compilers and traders. They each focus on just one or two specialised areas, giving a tremendous breadth of coverage across the team as a whole: Horse Racing three main tipsters, providing almost half the total volume of bets Rugby League and Union are covered. Described on GT Tips website as a mainstay Football Tennis Golf Other Sports including NFL and Gaelic football For our first look at this service, we focus on horse racing and rugby, the two sports which are featured most prominently in the members Premium Tips service, and have achieved consistently good returns through the two years since GT Tips first began. Members receive daily horse racing selections by as well as more sporadic s covering other sports as and when tips are identified. The horse racing is short, simply listing the selections and advised staking, price and bookmakers (example provided below). Typically, four selections are included in the daily ; a Nap and NB exclusive to Premium Tips members, plus two free tips available to all. Additional selections may be made during busier periods in the racing calendar. Most bets are advised at level stakes (1 point), with occasional stronger bets advised at higher stakes (generally 2 points). The stronger bets have performed very well to date, but the sample size is still too small to make any definitive judgement. Page 1

2 All major areas of Rugby League and Rugby Union across the globe are covered, with around five selections typically advised each week. George himself puts up all the League (Australian NRL, English Super League) and northern hemisphere Union tips (including French Top 14 and Celtic Pro 12), whilst another member of the team covers southern hemisphere Rugby Union. Internationals are also covered when the team spot some value. Aware that not all SBC readers may be familiar with rugby as a betting medium, we asked George to tell us a bit more about the team s methodology, how they maintain an edge in this area, and which markets they focus on: We tip on three main markets; to win match, to cover handicaps (i.e., to win by more than 7, or to not lose by more than 7) and total points. There s a brief guide to rugby handicaps on our site to help those unfamiliar with rugby betting. My day job is to price rugby matches for the above leagues. This means I follow these leagues very closely, and for every match come up with my own opinion about what the correct price (or handicap line ) should be. The company I work for greatly encourages this approach, which is to decide what you think is the correct price before checking the market. This is very rare among bookmakers. Take the French Top 14 for example. Bet365 will invariably be first to release prices for the next round of matches, generally on a Wednesday or Thursday. Everyone follows them, without exception. Very few firms can afford to have a dedicated French rugby trader because they take so little money on the matches Other leagues where team news is known, the value edge just comes down to professional opinion. It s my job to know every player that plays the game, and know how good they are. It s my job to keep all the stats for points distributions in all the various conditions, handicap cover %s in all situations, short turn-arounds, at home, covering big lines, etc. This means it s very easy for me to spot when a rival bookmaker has made a mistake. I d say our greatest edge in rugby tipping is that many other bookmakers are lazy. Recently, for example, we ve been tipping teams like Featherstone & Mont-de-Marsan to cover half time handicaps, because they ve been scoring over 65% of their points in the first half. This is research other layers can t be arsed to do. The post below, covering successful Australian Rugby League tips from last weekend, highlights how the team s significant experience can be put to good use: Page 2

3 Service Proofing: We have been proofing GT Tips since September We ve also recently worked closely with George to verify the full set of historical results going back to the start of Year 1, beginning May We have broken down the remainder of the article into two sections, covering results, odds availability and recommended betting banks separately for the two main sports, racing and rugby. Horse Racing Results: The table and graph below provide a summary of performance of all racing selections since the service started in May Year 1 covers the service s first 12 months as a free resource, whilst Year 2 covers both Premium Tips (Nap and NB), plus the free tips also included in members s. Year 2 is still ongoing, with around six weeks still to run. Bets Stakes Strike Rate Profit ROI ROC ** Year % % 185.6% Year % % 104.5% Total % % 290.1% Proofed Bets ** % % Nap/NB Only % % **Note: Covers period from first tip on 4 May 2011 (start of Year 1) to 18 March 2013 (Week 43, Year 2). SBC proofing covers six month period from 18 Sep 2012 onwards. Return on Capital (ROC) based on 150 point bank. Page 3

4 Whilst Year 2 performance has failed to match the heady heights of Year 1, where a highly impressive ROI of 20% was achieved, overall figures remain solid despite a recent period of treading water. Year 2 ROI stands at around 10%, sufficient to see a doubling of a 150 point betting bank (ROC = 104.5%) so far this year. It s noticeable that the Premium Tips (Nap/NB) bets have actually performed less well than the free tips so far. We asked George for his thoughts on this: I d also seen this trend I like to NAP/NB horses where a price is generally available so that followers can get on in their desired size. This might be why the non-nb tips perform better % wise, as there s more rogue / standout prices that we re picking off. Similar to the question above, the NAP idea also lends itself to having a greater deal of confidence in the selection, so will invariably be a shorter price. So while the ROI for the bigger prices is currently performing better, I believe that the lower ROI from the NAP & NB tips is much more reliable. Time will tell, but it may well be that, as George suggests, the performance of Nap/NB vs other selections evens out over time. The service has also recently brought a new flat tipster on board who, according to George, comes with an excellent reputation, particularly with respect to betting in the highly liquid markets of UAE racing. It will be interesting to see how this aspect of the service evolves in the coming months. Additional Analysis Short-priced Selections: As usual, we gave the service the once-over to try to better understand strengths and weaknesses, and any trends lurking behind the headline figures. Perhaps the most striking finding amongst this related to performance at higher vs lower odds, as highlighted in the table below. Note that Nap/NB and other (free) bets all broadly follow this pattern: Odds Bets Stakes Profit ROI Less than 7/ % 7/ % At this stage, we re not particularly suggesting potential subscribers should drop the lower odds selections from their betting - they re not losing money and will certainly make for a smoother ride with a more regular stream of winners but just be aware of this trend as the service further matures into Year 3 and beyond. Page 4

5 Betting Bank: Although the biggest drawdown the racing part of the service has seen to date is 75 points, we d urge some caution with respect to betting banks size. Bearing this in mind, and having simulated longer sequences of results at typical strike rates around 20%, we would recommend using a 150 point bank for the racing selections. Odds Availability: One of our testers, Michael, has done some sterling work in testing odds movement for a decent volume of advised selections over the last few months. Michael consistently managed to achieve the advised odds (normally at BOG bookmakers), and also reported that odds generally held up well for some time after receipt only around 2% lower, on average, half an hour later (details in table below). Note also that odds had generally shortened a bit by the start of the race (SP 7% lower than advised price) normally a good indication that the tipster has found some value in the market. Advised Odds Achieved Odds Odds After 30 Mins SP (-1%) 6.04 (-2%) 5.72 (-7%) Note: Data covers 283 bets over the period 18/11/12 to 30/1/13. Rugby Results: Rugby League and Rugby Union tips were provided for free during the formative Year 1, whilst in Year 2 all rugby tips were provided only as part of the members Premium Tips service. The table below provides a summary of performance of all selections to date. Bets Stakes Strike Rate Profit ROI ROC ** Year % % 144.6% Year % % 126.2% Total % % 270.8% Proofed Bets ** % % **Note: Covers period from first tip on 4 May 2011 (start of Year 1) to 18 March 2013 (Week 43, Year 2). SBC proofing covers six month period from 18 Sep 2012 onwards. Return on Capital (ROC) based on 80 point bank. Again, like the racing tips, Year 2 has seen more modest returns than in Year 1, but the overall ROI of 21.0% remains excellent, with both years results enabling subscribers to comfortably double their bank based on our recommended 80 point minimum. The equity curve below adds further encouragement, indicating a relatively smooth ride to profits, in step with the high strike rates of 50 60%. Page 5

6 Staking/ Betting Bank: Staking was generally down at the one point level in Year 1 whilst, in Year 2, larger staked bets (typically two points, but occasionally up to a maximum of four) have often been advised. The maximum drawdown to date has been only 26.5 points but, given the increase in average staking for Year 2, we would recommend a more conservative bank of around 80 points. Odds Availability: One possible concern with the rugby element of the service remains around market liquidity and how well odds will hold up if a larger volume of subscribers bet on these selections. George s view, as an industry insider, is pragmatic and helpful: There s a big variance between bookmakers and between leagues. Championship rugby league for example, has very low limits, but often represents the best value. So while you might not be able to get on for much, your actual yield will be similar because the ROI will be much higher. Competitions like Super League, NRL, Top 14, Pro 12 will all be in for very decent limits with most bookmakers. Unfortunately the best prices do go, bet365 are especially quick to react. The shop based firms, Hills, Ladbrokes, Paddys, Coral will all hold their prices for decent limits for long enough. An average stake of on our rugby tips will a) always be laid and b) ensure that accounts last a long time. This is something that we may revisit further down the line. Racing and Rugby Combined a Mini Portfolio: Given the strength of results so far, the contrast in strike rates and the very different nature of the two sports, there seems to be a lot of value in creating a balanced mini portfolio by betting on both GT Tips racing and rugby tips. As the volume of racing tips is much larger, potential subscribers may want to aim for better balance by either: restricting the number of racing selections they bet on; a conservative approach may be to just bet on Nap/NB as George favours, or an aggressive (and riskier) alternative would be to drop some of the lower odds racing tips or, as we have done for the table below, doubling rugby stakes to increase exposure to the steadier element of the mix. Combined Racing/Rugby Bets Stakes Profit ROI ROC ** Year % 339.8% Year % 239.1% Total % 578.9% **Note: Return on Capital (ROC) based on 150 point bank, and assumes double stakes for advised rugby selections Service Practicality: Our tester, Michael, did have some concerns regarding advice times; he found the service a little hard to follow due to information being sent through at quite a wide variety of times and some lack of clarity on when to expect the next advice . George acknowledges that whilst they aim to release horse racing selections in a time window, typically between each day, the rugby tips are much more erratic, partly due to the need to wait for key team news, together with the idiosyncrasies of each competition. George is looking to improve on communication with members to help these practicality issues: What we could do is communicate more with our members, and this is something we have started doing through twitter and the s. For example, we put out a notice on a recent Wednesday saying, we have a tip for Thursday night s Championship match, but as we re waiting for more bookies to release their prices we won t be publishing the tip till tomorrow lunchtime. Page 6

7 Customer Service: The service appears to be becoming more professional in its approach on the back of the move to a subscriber-based model last May. George has been very helpful and responsive during our testing phase and work developing this review. Service In Summary: The service has a lot to recommend about it with a wide range of sports coverage and the advantage of having a whole team of industry contacts and insiders using the benefits of their experience to generate a relatively high volume of tips. In our view, the horse racing and rugby tips stand out as the two most attractive elements of the service, and we can see a lot of sense in combining this two elements into a mini portfolio to ensure a balanced mix of risk and stability. At 50 per quarter or 150 for annual subscription we think that GT Tips offers excellent value for money, and is worth serious consideration for anyone looking to expand the breadth of their betting portfolio. Our main caveat remains around odds availability for the rugby tips, particularly if subscriber numbers increase, and this may be something we return to at a later date. At this time, we wish to observe performance for a few more months before giving consideration to any Hall of Fame upgrade. We will be reporting on both the Rugby and Horse Racing results separately in our Tipster Profit Reports. Service Ratings: Returns: 3.5/5 Risk: 3 Cost: 4 Transparency: 4 Suggested portfolio weighting: 3 Overall: 3.5 Rating: Recommend Page 7