Björn Bäckström, Lars Olsén and Simon Renström Copyright 2011 ClaroBet AB. Updated: May. 12, 11 You may not distribute or copy any of the text or use

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1 Björn Bäckström, Lars Olsén and Simon Renström Copyright 2011 ClaroBet AB. Updated: May. 12, 11 You may not distribute or copy any of the text or use it in any other way except for personal use, without specific written permission from the authors.

2 Introduction to Sports Arbitrage... 3 What is Sports Arbitrage?... 3 How does it work?... 3 Why isn't everyone doing it?... 3 Don't the bookies dislike arbitrage bettors?... 4 Is arbitrage betting legal?... 4 How much time does it take?... 4 The math behind an arbitrage... 5 The Risks and How to Avoid Them... 6 What's the catch?... 6 Bet cancellation... 6 Individual errors... 7 Moving odds... 8 Limiting books... 9 The next step...10 The Complete Arbitrage Boot Camp e-book

3 Arbitrage is the well known financial practice of taking advantage of a price differential between two markets. In the case of sports arbitrage, the "prices" are the odds, and the markets are two or more competing bookmakers. The situation occurs when both bookmakers have sufficiently high odds on each side of an event. You place a bet on both participants, covering all outcomes of the game, and are guaranteed a profit. Arbitrage situations happen regularly, hundreds of times every day. Sports arbitrage betting on the internet has existed for almost a decade, and a lot of people have made (and still are making) good money from it. The easiest way to explain an arbitrage is in a 2-way event such as a tennis event, a basketball event (with no draw option) or an ice hockey event that includes potential overtime and penalties. In all of these events, there will be a winner. Let s take an example of a 2-way hockey game. Team1 at Bookie1 has the odds 2,05 and Team2 at Bookie2 has the odds 2,05. If you bet $500 at both bookies, you win $25 regardless of which team wins. You have placed a total of $1000 and you will get $1025 back, no matter the outcome of the event. You ll find a more detailed explanation of this further down in this e-book. Until now, the existing tools have been very difficult to use (and to be honest, often of poor quality). A sports arbitrage opportunity (or just an arb ) doesn t exist for very long, usually between 1-10 minutes. Some arbs are around longer but that s more of an exception than a rule. This means that it s crucial that you get as close to real-time odds as you can from the bookies. It s not much worth to get free arbitrage text messages for instance. By the time you receive the text message to your phone, the arb is long gone and the bookies have lowered their odds. You can expect to make up to about 15% per month of your total arbitrage bankroll. The exact percentage stands in direct proportion to the time you invest. A goal of 10% per month is however very realistic for anyone who puts his or her mind to it. The minimum bankroll that you should use is about $500. Anything less than that and you will have trouble keeping the different bookmaker accounts funded and ready to go. To be able to make decent money on sports arbitrage betting you ll need a significantly bigger starting bankroll. For instance, if you 3

4 aim for a profit of 10% per month, a $1500 bankroll will make you $150/month. For some people this might be enough, but for others it s just not worth the effort. This is key to why everyone isn t doing it the return on investment seems too low in relation to the effort. But think about this for a second 10% per month?! That s a huge interest! Compare this to any other financial savings account out there. They pay maybe 5% per year, if you re lucky. Why should you put a few thousand dollars in your savings account with an interest of less than 0,5% per month when you could invest them (and have fun while doing it) by betting on sports arbitrage and make +60% per year? This is a question very few people have asked themselves. Feels good that you re not one of them anymore, doesn t it? Another reason why everyone isn t doing it is that learning the arbitrage betting trade requires some time and dedication. The bulk of this time lies in the beginning to fully understand how stuff works. It s like everything else really; you ll have to learn it to earn it! There are a lot of questions about this. The short answer is not really. First, look at it from the bookmaker s point of view. Running a bookie today is very competitive and the books are forced to compete about having the best odds on the market. If they do not compete with the other books around, they will not live very long online, because every other bookie will have better odds, and the customers will realize this and move to another, for them more profitable bookie. This is why arbitrage betting always will be around, and there will always be new books entering the market, wanting to compete with the more established books out there. Sure, some books do not like "sharp bettors" (like you), and might limit your account after a time, but there are A LOT of books around, and plenty of arbs on the market. Other books don t care about arbers, they always accept bets and never limit your account. Yes. Betting on sports arbitrage is the same as making regular bets. It is 100% legal and has been around for a long time. However, it s your responsibility to verify that online sports gambling is legal where you reside. As previously explained, the time you invest stands in direct proportion to your potential winnings. And it takes more time as a beginner, as you ll have to learn the basics first. If you are dedicated of learning the basics, you ll be up and running in a few days. The time you ll spend after that is to have the software running in the background of your computer. You will not even have to monitor the software as it will notify you with audio and visual alerts when an arb 4

5 has been found. When you get an alert from the software, you simply click on the arbitrage, and a couple of minutes later you re done and can forget about it. And you ve then made probably 1-5% of your total stake for that event. Because an arbitrage is only alive for a few minutes, the longer you can have the software running, the more arbs you will find. It sounds easy doesn t it? Well, it is! At a single bookie, the odds of a specific event are calculated in such a way that the book always has a small edge. This edge is often known as the juice of the bookie. The bigger the edge the bookie has, the more they profit from the event and the more you lose in the long run. You can convert bookie odds to probability by dividing 1 with the odds. The odds 2.45 for example mean that the bookies odds experts give that outcome of the event a probability of 41% (40.82%) of happening. The odds 1.55 calculates to (1/1.55) 65% (64.52%). When both the probabilities combined exceed 100% (105.3% in the example above) the bookies edge vs the player is 5.3% (or a -5.3% arb). The profit of this edge goes to the bookmakers. An arbitrage arises when the sum of the two inverted odds is below 1, for example: = (this would be a 3,6% arbitrage or ROI, Return On Investment) 2.45 You bet on a tennis event. Federer to win has odds 1.80 at bookmaker William Hill. Nadal to win has odds 2.45 at bookmaker Gamebookers. If you place $585 on William Hill for Federer to win and $430 on Gamebookers for Nadal to win you have placed a total of $1015. The different outcomes of the event are: If Federer wins, your return will be a total of $1053 (1.8*$585=$1053) If Nadal wins, your return will be a total of $1053,50 (2.45*$430=$ ) This means that you will profit $38 or $38.50 depending on who wins the match if you use RebelBetting. Pretty good for a minutes work, don t you think? And the best thing is that you don t need worry about calculating the stakes RebelBetting does this for you! 5

6 In the previous part of the RebelBetting Arbitrage Boot Camp, you ve gotten to know how sports arbitrage works. Now, to the most common question of them all: ' As the saying goes, there s no such thing as a free lunch. The free lunch always comes with some kind of catch. The catch in sports arbitrage is that there are risks in the trade and you will experience them. Anyone who says otherwise is lying. But don t worry; there are quite a few ways to avoid them, and to minimize the potential effects from them. Experienced arbers make very few mistakes, and always win in the long run! A bookmaker can cancel (void) your bet, claiming it was a palpable error (commonly known as a palp ). This can occur when a bookmaker has made an obvious mistake, such as reversed the odds of a match or some other kind of accidental error made while quoting the odds. Every bookmaker can void a bet. The palp-rule does not occur very often, but it happens. Certain bookies cancel bets more often than others. Also, bookies can cancel a bet at any time. They can void the bet before the match begins, during the match or after completion. Books with good reputation however usually don t void a bet after the match has started. The bet cancellation is the single biggest catch in sports arbitrage trading. There are however ways to greatly minimize the risks of this happening: Look out for odds that seem to be reversed. If you see a tennis arb that is 25%, it s most definitely not a valid arbitrage. An example would be if Bookie1 had odds 2.45 to win, and Bookie2 had 2.55 to win. This would probably be a reversed odds situation. Keep an eye on other bookmaker s odds. If one bookmaker really stands out with a high odds on a particular game, that bookie may have made a mistake while setting their prices. Always confirm your bet on the bookmaker that you think is least willing to accept your bet first. An example would be the book that does not show their max stake until you have confirmed the bet. You will get accustomed to which these books are when you get some experience. This way, you will minimize the risk of the second bookie not accepting your bet (and thus leaving you with an open bet at one outcome). 6

7 Never leave your uncovered bet open. Cover your bet as much as you can if the bookmaker voids the bet before the match begins. If the bookmaker voids your bet during the match, try to cover your bet as best as you can with live-betting (in-play). You might have to lock in a small loss of a few %, but that s way better than losing your entire stake in a gamble if you leave your bet open. If the bookmaker voids your bet after the match is complete (not very common, but it happens), accept this fact and learn from the experience you have gained, by analyzing why it happened. If you want to be a successful sports arbitrage bettor, you need to keep your cool and always be certain that you bet on the right sport, date, event, odds type, odds and finally the right bet amount. Think Ice Man in Top Gun keep your head cool, and you will avoid to be shot down (and get some bogeys while you re at it). Examples of common mistakes would be if you accidentally bet on the wrong team, or if you realize after you have confirmed a bet on Bookie1, that you don t have enough funds on Bookie2 to complete your arb. Another example would be if you bet on say a Rugby match that is about to start in 3 minutes. If the books change their odds while you are in the midst of betting, you might end up with an open bet on one of the teams when the event starts. Always verify your bets before confirming them at the bookmakers. Double check that everything is correct. Double check the participants, odds, time of event, stake etc. Don t bet on events that will start in just a few minutes. Always give yourself ample time to correct eventual errors. Never leave your uncovered bet open. Cover your bet as much as you can if the bookmaker voids the bet before the match begins. If the bookmaker voids your bet during the match, try to cover your bet as best as you can with live-betting (in-play). You might have to lock in a small loss of a few %, but that s way better than losing your entire stake in a gamble if you leave your bet open. Learn from the experience you have gained. 7

8 Moving odds is the most common risk of arbitraging. This is part of the business, and you ll learn to accept it. It s not a big problem really, if you have to take a small loss of say -2% on one arb, it only takes a +2% arb to cover the previous loss. It happens from time to time that you have confirmed a bet at Bookie1 and the odds have changed at Bookie2, making the arb small, or even a negative arb. These changing odds trap will happen less frequently the more you arb. You will eventually get the experience necessary to minimize this risk. Think twice about placing an arb on the event if there s a lot of movement in the odds of a particular match. Some bookmakers are faster than others when changing odds, and you could get caught in the middle when arbing on these events. That is, you could successfully place the bet on Outcome1, but when you confirm your bet on Outcome2, the odds might have changed if it s a fast bookie. Avoid getting caught in the middle by always confirming your bet on the bookmaker that you think is least willing to accept your bet first. Never leave your uncovered bet open. Cover your bet as much as you can if the bookmaker voids the bet before the match begins. If the bookmaker voids your bet during the match, try to cover your bet as best as you can with live-betting (in-play). You might have to lock in a small loss of a few %, but that s way better than losing your entire stake in a gamble if you leave your bet open. Learn from the experience you have gained. 8

9 Books will limit you eventually if you use your betting account solely for arbitrage betting and this is a fact you'll have to accept. Actually, it isn't really Sports Arbitrage itself that they don't like. Think of the bookies as casinos in the US - if you are a constant winner, they will limit you sooner or later, or close your account. Some books limit you after 3-4 large bets, some after weeks, months or years. Some books limit you faster if you consistently bet on palpable errors. There are also books that NEVER limit you. There are a few theories of how to avoid being limited. However none of them are confirmed as "true". Avoiding limits is just a guessing game really, but some common sense will take you a long way. However, there are a few things you should think about: Round your stake. Try to round your stake as best you can to even 5 s. So instead of betting $237 at a single bookmaker, bet $235 or $240. Do not bet on obvious palps. This is a sure way of getting limited. Arbitrages over 5% should immediately raise a cautious warning flag. Do not make unnecessary withdrawals from a bookie. Do not withdraw funds from books if you do not have to. Keeping withdrawals to a minimum is good. Think twice about betting on low tier, foreign leagues. Some books might raise an eyebrow if you bet a lot of money on a division 3 basketball league in a foreign country. The bottom line is that you never know when a book might limit you. The only thing you can do is to accept the limitation of your account and move on to the next bookmaker. There are a great number of good books out there. All you have to do is to move on to the next one. Every bookmaker out there wants you to refer people you know to them, so why not refer your friends and family to your favorite books? 9

10 So now you ve grasped the basics, but there s still a short way to go until you can successfully and repeatedly make good money. With Sports Arbitrage, you can make anywhere between a few hundred euros per month to a few thousand how much is entirely up to you and your bank roll! The key is to profit a few percentages of your stake every time you bet, have patience and stay dedicated. It's enough with just a handful of bets per day, and you will reach your goal. Now that you have a general idea of what Sports Arbitrage is, you re probably asking yourself what the next step is. How do you get from where you are now to where you want to be? You ll need: Some kind of starting capital. You can start out as small as you wish really, but the more funds you can use as a bank roll, the more you ll make. To open up accounts at various selected bookmakers. An e-wallet account, preferably Moneybookers or NETeller (or both). A way to log your bets and a deeper understanding of money management. A more detailed e-book with in-depth information about specific bookmakers, various bet and market types, bookmaker bonuses and how to use them optimally, hidden Cross Market arb opportunities, utilizing exchanges such as Betfair etcetera. A professional and valuable arbitrage service to easily find all the hundreds of arbitrages out there. With RebelBetting, you will be get hundreds of quality-arbs at any given moment, 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. Starting from 79 per month, it usually only takes a couple of days to cover the subscription fee. The rest is pure profit! You ll also need our advanced e-book, teaching you the more advanced techniques that will be invaluable to you in your arbing career. There's also a check-list of how to start out and make your first arbitrage bet in the best way possible. The advanced e-book is currently priced at 49. Fortunately, there is a great introductory package you can take advantage of! Starting at only 9, you will receive: 7 days subscription to RebelBetting Pro, with access to all arbs, including Cross Markets and middles (value 32). The complete advanced e-book (value 49). The comprehensive Excel ArbBook with which you log your bets and have complete overview of all your funds. 10

11 This is what you will learn in the complete e-book: Bookmakers and their traits Get familiar with the bookie websites Sports and leagues Markets Deposit and withdrawal differences Account security Maximum stake information The betting procedure Bonus offers How much you should bet on a single match The bet amounts How many bookies you need Which books to use Paper trading The Bets 2-way 3-way Asian Handicap (AH) European Handicap (EH) Over Under Middles Inverted Middles Cross Markets The Sports Bankroll Management Why is it needed? How it will help you How to keep track of your bets and transactions When opening bookmaker accounts Currency how to choose? Bookmaker account balances Lay-betting in Sports Arbitrage Using lay betting in Sports Arbitrage Lay betting terms Taking Advantage of the Bonuses Bonuses to boost your bankroll early on How it works How to make sure you will profit on your free-bet A free-bet combined with a lay-bet on Betfair Tips and Tricks of the trade Turning your knowledge into practice To get all this for only 9 EUR, go to 11