During the course of our research on NBA basketball, we found out a couple of interesting principles.

Transcription

1

2 After mining all the available NBA data for the last 15 years, we found the keys to a successful basketball betting system: If you follow this system exactly, you can expect to hit 90% of your NBA bets. The basic premise behind the system is simple: There are certain point spreads where the favorite covers at a higher rate than usual. Conversely, there are point spreads where it s better to bet on the underdog because favorites cover at such a low percentage. During the course of our research on NBA basketball, we found out a couple of interesting principles. Later on I ll go into further detail about how to make the bets, but first let s go over the money management of the bets. For the purposes of our example, we re working with 5 cent juice, or vig. This means you risk $105 for every $100 you want to win. Most sportsbooks will charge you $110 to win $100 but if you do a little bit of research you can easily find a reduce juice book with a 14 cent or 10 cent spread. If the spread is 10 cents this means if it s -105 on one side, it will be -105 on the other side. Over the long run, this really helps you in terms of the winning % you need to turn a profit. Just do a search for reduced juice sportsbooks and you ll quickly find some highly reputable outfits. 1.The same point spread that Favorites cover at home, they are likely to cover on the road 2.Large Underdogs do well at home and on the road, but slightly better on the road. To do the research for NBA Basketball, I used the same point spreads as in NFL and NCAA football, between 1 pt. and 13 pt. favorites. If you do not understand what a point spread is let me explain. If the Golden State Warriors are playing the Denver Nuggets and the point spread is listed as Golden St -2.5, we read that as Golden St. minus 2.5, and this means the Warriors are a 2.5 point favorite. In this example the Warriors must win by 3 points or more for a bet on Golden St. to be a winner. You can find point spreads at: *If any of the links in this document do not work properly when clicking on them, please cut and paste them into a new browser

3 There are 3 bets in the system. Bet A Your normal bet amount. If you bet to win $100 or $500, this is what you want to start with. At Sports Betting Professor, I recommend using between 2-5% of your starting bankroll for each wager. Fluctuations in your standard bet will most likely cause more damage during the lows than it will help during the highs. If you win this bet, you do not need to progress to Bet B. Your next bet will once again be a Bet A. Bet B If you lose Bet A, you make the Bet B to win amount equal to the sum of any losses from Bet A plus any profit you would have achieved from winning Bet A. If you win Bet B, your next bet reverts back to your original Bet A amount. Bet C In case Bet B fails, you make Bet C to win amount equal to the sum of any loss you ve suffered from Bet A, plus the loss from Bet B, plus profit you would have achieved from winning Bet A. If you lose a Bet C, this is considered a loss for the system. There are no losses counted for a loss on Bet A or a Bet B. But over the last 15 years our research shows there is almost no chance of that happening. There is NEVER a BET D It doesn t matter if you win or lose a Bet C; for your next bet you revert back to your original win amount from Bet A. I guarantee my results over the course of the season and this approach requires bettors to be steadfast with their betting amounts. Spreading the risk around in the sports betting marketplace is similar to building a diverse portfolio in the stock market. It lessens the damage done by a rough stretch in the market. If a bettor is starting out with a $100 bankroll, and decides to use $25 wagers, there is a good chance the bankroll would be decimated by an early cold streak. However, if that same bettor makes $2 wagers, he can withstand any early cold streaks to remain in the market and realize positive gains.

4 The goal of the Sports Betting Professor is to make you a winner at the end of the NBA basketball season. If you follow the system above, I guarantee that you will finish the season winning over 90% of your bets. As we have mentioned over and over, the MAGIC NUMBER to remember is 52.7%. This is the win percentage you need to achieve to make a profit betting on football. If you prefer to move outside the system and bet all the games individually for your normal bet amount, stick to betting on the parameters I m about to give you and you will profit. This way you can have more bets and you ll still guarantee yourself profit. There are with their corresponding win % and I ve also included how those numbers turn even more in your favor when you buy a ½ pt. Here is how you read the Buy a ½ point column : Yes If you re making a bet at this point spread, you should always buy a ½ point. You Should Buying a ½ point at this number is worth the increase in juice. You Can Buying a ½ point at this number will avoid the possibility of a push, but it won t really change your winning amount when you factor in the extra juice. No Buying a ½ point at this number may increase your win %, but the extra juice will Home Favorites Yes Yes Yes 56.5 Road Favorites No Yes Yes 58.0 individual point spread numbers that return much higher than our magic number of 52.7%. If you stick to these numbers you will also make a nice profit at the end of the season. Keep in mind though, the further you stray from the formula, the lower your winning % will be. offset those winnings. Do not buy a ½ pt. here. As I mentioned at the top, these are the only 3 numbers that Favorites have a worthy winning percentage at: -1, -4 and -7. The goal of this project was to find inefficiencies in the market and this certainly qualifies. Let s take a look at the favorable Underdog point So our next step is to outline the key numbers that you want to bet on. What are the key numbers that have been statistically proven to turn a profit over the last 15 years? I have listed the point spreads

5 Road Underdogs You should No You should 69.0 Home Underdogs No You can You should 60.5 spreads. As you can see, you shouldn t bet Road or Home Underdogs in the NBA until you reach +11. Once again, keep in mind the winning % you need to achieve to make a profit is 52.7%. Let s take an example to show how our system would work Let s say a Wednesday game has the New York Knicks visiting the New Jersey Nets at 7 PM EST. On the betting line, the Nets are a 4 point favorite over New York. Checking our NBA betting chart we see that Home Favorites giving 4 points cover 53.1% of the time. However, in this instance the chart tells us you should buy a ½ pt. to move the spread to Now you ve upped your winning percentage to 56.0%. This would be Bet A. If New Jersey covers the point spread by winning by more than 3.5 points, you win your bet and look for a new bet series to start. However, if the Nets did not cover the point spread, this would be a loss for Bet A. Next, you look at the point spreads for the later games that evening. You see Sacramento is visiting the Lakers at 10:05 EST. The home team, Los Angeles is a 12 pt. favorite and checking our chart we see that Road Underdogs getting 12 points cover 63.5% of the time. In this case you would bet on Sacramento + 12 because the chart tells us not to buy a ½ point. So we would place Bet B on Sacramento If Sacramento loses by less than 12 points, you win the bet and move on to a fresh betting series. Next evening you take a look at the Thursday night games and Atlanta is visiting Boston and the Celtics are a 7 point favorite. Checking the chart, Home Favorites cover 53.0% of the time when giving 7 points. Again checking the chart you know you need to buy a ½ pt. in this instance upping your win percentage to 56.5%. You would then make a play on Boston to win by more than 6.5 points. After Boston wins the bet, you would begin another bet series, reducing your win amount to $100 (or whatever your original bet amount is). If Boston does not cover the spread in that game, then you would still start a fresh betting series; there is no Bet D at a higher win amount. But here is the really good news: Based on the research, most of the time, you will not even need to make a Bet C because Bet B wins 80% of the time! And, if you do have to make a Bet C, the failure rate on that is less than 10%!

6 So now you have the complete list of reliable betting numbers to look for. Betting on NBA Basketball you want to concentrate on 2 major factors. 1. The same point spread that Favorites cover at home (1, 4 and 7), they are likely to cover on the road. 2. Large Underdogs do well on the home and the road, but interestingly a little bit better on the road. And here is the betting system in a nutshell: 1. Check the point spreads and mark down any games that have numbers that fit the system. 2. Out of those numbers, check the tables listed here to see which numbers have the highest winning percentage. 3. Check the injury reports. If the team you are considering on betting on has a key late injury (a 20 point scorer, key contributor, defensive stopper, etc.) then you should pass on this game and move on to the next one. 4. Make your Bet A on which team has the most favorable odds. 5. If you lose Bet A, repeat the process for Bet B. 6. If you lose Bet B, repeat the process for Bet C. There are two final points to remember. 1. I recommend waiting until after the first week of the season to begin betting. Due to the high player turnover rate from season to season, as well as the fact preseason gives even less indication of how well a team will do (even worse than football) the NBA lines are notoriously loose in the beginning of the season.

7 2. To guarantee the high winning percentage of the Sports Betting Professor you have to stick to the system exactly as it s laid out here (the Bet A, Bet B, Bet C format). To be a successful bettor takes discipline and patience. If you win Bet A, do not double up on your next game. Start a new bet series with the same original bet amount. Only this discipline can guarantee the extremely high winning percentage. By utilizing the system as outlined above, you will guarantee a winning percentage of 90%. But the point of this whole exercise is to win $$$, right? And that s why, it s crucial to point out: ***You do not need to stick to the system exactly to enjoy profitable results*** As we have mentioned over and over, the MAGIC NUMBER to remember is 52.7%. This is the win percentage you need to achieve to make a profit betting on football. If you prefer to move outside the system and bet all the games individually for your normal bet amount, stick to betting on the parameters I have given you and you will profit. This way you can have more bets and you ll still guarantee yourself profit. There are individual point spread numbers that return much higher than our magic number of 52.7%. If you stick to these numbers you will also make a nice profit at the end of the season. Keep in mind though, the further you stray from the formula, the lower your winning % will be. Lastly, remember that betting on sports is supposed to be fun and profitable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Now go and enjoy the winnings! **As in the stock market, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. However, the NBA added the 3 point shot in 1979, so the point system has remained unchanged for the entire period of our research. Therefore, because of the size of the data sample we had to work with, there is every reason to believe these trends will hold up.