es.com

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "www.coastalsecuri es.com 1 800 489 3232"

Transcription

1 WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY WEEK OF OCTOBER 30, 2015 The Federal Reserve s policy meeting caused a bit of a stir in the financial markets this week. To be sure, no one expected the Fed to take any overt action on interest rates and, keeping to the script, it left the benchmark short-term rate at near zero, where it has been since December What caused a minor ruckus, however, was the wording of the policy statement, which sent a direct and clear message that a rate hike will be on the table at the next meeting in December. It s highly unusual for the Fed to mention a specific meeting in which a policy shift might take place. Our research shows that the last time the Fed mentioned the next meeting in its forward guidance regarding a policy change was in December What s more, recent developments seemed to lower the odds of a rate hike at the next meeting. The economy s jobs engine downshifted in August and September, global headwinds gathered

2 force paced by the slowdown in China the dollar strengthened, threatening exports, and financial conditions tightened in the third quarter. Meanwhile, there was little indication that inflation would move up to the Fed s 2 percent target, a precondition for a rate increase. Going into the Fed meeting, the financial markets had priced in a less than 50 percent probability that the liftoff date for a rate increase would take place before the end of the year. Needless to say, those odds changed after the Fed meeting, with asset prices now giving a December liftoff date at least a chance of occurring. From our lens, this is another case of intelligent people looking at the same sets of data and coming up with different interpretations. With the recovery, now more than six years old, moving the economy closer to its capacity limits, the downshifting in job growth is neither a surprise nor terribly disappointing to Fed officials. Should the labor market continue to crank out jobs at a rate of more than 200 thousand a month, as had been the case for most of the past two years, the unemployment rate would be driven down below the 4.9 percent to 5.2 percent range the Fed considers to be consistent with a fully-employed economy. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the economy needs to generate only 112 thousand jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate at its current 5.1 percent. Likewise, the Fed is probably not overly concerned with the slowdown in the economy s overall growth rate in the third quarter. On Thursday, the Commerce Department released its first estimate of GDP for the period, and the headline number looked as awful as expected, if not more so. Growth for the quarter downshifted to a 1.5 percent annual rate from the robust 3.9 percent pace in the second quarter. That was weaker than the 2 percent pace seen by the consensus of economists. But as is often the case, the headline growth rate is not an accurate barometer of the economy s performance. Forget for the moment that the first estimate of GDP is an unreliable reading of what actually happened, since it is derived from partial data and has yet to incorporate significant results for September. There will be two more revisions and the final outcome can look dramatically different from the first estimate. Just look at what happened in the first quarter, when the initial estimate of negative growth morphed into a positive reading in the final revision. More important is that the headline growth rate overstates the weakness in the economy, as the slow-down was due almost entirely to a slower inventory buildup by businesses, something we have warned would happen in recent commentaries. Looking at real final demand, which excludes inventory swings and is more representative of fundamental trends, things do not look bad at all. According to this metric, growth slowed to 3.0 percent from 3.9 percent in the second quarter a

3 slowdown, for sure, but to a rate that still looks quite healthy. Indeed, if there was one surprise in the initial data it is that there was little drag coming from trade. Net exports subtracted a tiny 0.03 percentage points from the overall growth rate, an insignificant haircut considering the global weakness and strength in the dollar. In light of the neutral impact of net trade, the conspicuous absence of concern over global developments in the Fed s latest policy statement, which was prominently featured in the previous statement, becomes somewhat more understandable. Of course as we mentioned above, the GDP data is missing some important pieces for September, and trade figures for the month are among the most notable. The same can be said for inventories. When these pieces do become available, the economic landscape for the third quarter could look significantly stronger or weaker. Taken at face value, however, the Fed s assessment that the economy continues to grow at a moderate pace seems to be supported by the data. Indeed, the drag from the inventory drawdown could actually set the stage for a nice rebound in the fourth quarter if final demand holds up. Then companies would need to replenish their shelves with more merchandise, spurring an increase in orders and production. Whether this turns out to be the case remains to be seen. But the underlying details in the GDP report point in that direction. Household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of GDP, increased by a solid 3.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter. That s slower than the 3.9 percent pace of the second quarter, but comfortably above the average increase since the Great Recession ended. The second quarter s strength, of course, benefited from pent-up demand generated in the first quarter, when harsh winter weather prevented consumers from going to the malls and shopping centers. But smoothing out the quarterly volatility yields a gentle upward trend in spending. The average growth rate in personal consumption over the first three quarters of the year equals 2.9 percent, which is slightly stronger than the 2.7 percent increase for all of 2014 and twice as strong as the 2013 gain. No doubt, the sturdy pace of consumer spending reflects the steady improvement in the job market, which has put more money in household pockets and drove up confidence. Reinforcing the job gains, households have enjoyed a considerable increase in property values as well as financial assets this year, contributing mightily to stronger balance sheets. And, after a long lag, it appears that households are finally spending the savings from lower gasoline prices. Earlier in the year, most of the gas savings was used to pay down debt or channeled into bank accounts, belying the quick spending kick that economists thought would be brought about by lower gas prices. It may well be that households resisted a spending spree because they feared gas prices would spike higher again before long. Well they haven t and it looks ever more likely that the gas savings is giving a permanent boost to discretionary income. On Friday morning, the Commerce Department provided more information on consumer spending for the month of September, fleshing out the quarterly figures in the GDP report. What the monthly data show is that there was a bulge in August, when real consumption spiked by 0.4 percent, but the surrounding months of July and September posted decent gains of 0.2 percent. Significantly, the September increase was sparked by a 0.6 percent increase in durable goods spending, paced by robust auto sales, which was stronger than the 0.5 percent increase in August. More than anything, the strength in big-ticket purchases, such as autos, is a sign that households feel good about stepping up discretionary spending. Compared to the same month last year, real consumption is up by 3.2 percent and up 6.8 percent for durable goods which is hovering at the upper end of the trend since the Great Recession ended. There s no reason to think that this steady moderate growth rate will falter in the fourth quarter.

4 Meanwhile, housing continued to make a positive contribution to growth in the third quarter, although the 6.1 percent annual rate of increase in residential outlays was smaller than the 9.3 percent increase in the second quarter. We suspect that a major constraint on residential building is coming from a shortage of workers, which is putting a crimp on homebuilding activity. Still, homebuilders remain upbeat and plan to accelerate construction of new homes in coming months. The residential sector is belatedly becoming a tailwind for the economy, but its relative share of overall activity has declined considerably since the housing collapse and thus has become less of a growth driver than it was in previous upturns. That said, the multiplier effects of a reviving housing market through ancillary purchases of furnishings, appliances, remodeling and moving services will resonate throughout the economy. Not everything in the GDP report came up roses. Business investment spending came in on the weak side, dragged down by an outright contraction in spending on structures. This appears to be mainly an artifact of the pullback in the energy sector, where oil rigs are considered structures. While business equipment spending increased by a decent 5.3 percent annual rate, the near-term future does not look promising. New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a leading indicator of capital spending, declined 0.3 percent in September, following a larger 1.3 percent drop in August. The factory sector is the most vulnerable to global headwinds and the strong dollar, which undercut exports of manufactured goods. The Fed clearly believes that manufacturing weakness related to the global slowdown is not severe enough to derail the recovery from its moderate growth path or impede its rate-hiking plans. But if December is still on the table for a possible lift-off, Fed officials will also need to feel reasonably confident that inflation will move up towards its 2 percent target. So far, that seems like a tall order, as the inflation measures are moving in the wrong direction. The Fed s target inflation yardstick, the personal consumption deflator, declined by 0.2 percent in September and the core personal consumption deflator, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was flat. The annual inflation rate has remained below the 2 percent target for more than three years and the last time it was lower than in September was in October 2009, when the economy was facing an ominous deflation threat. If inflation signals do not turn around by December and the Fed pulls the rate trigger at that month s meeting, it would need to accompany that shift with significant reasoning.

5

The President s Report to the Board of Directors

The President s Report to the Board of Directors The President s Report to the Board of Directors May 5, 2015 CURRENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS - May 5, 2015 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show that economic growth continued to slow in

More information

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact

More information

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives

More information

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the

More information

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S.

LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST. U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate. Chart 1. Growth Rate of U.S. CENTER FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMIC RESEARCH LEE BUSI N ESS SCHOOL UNITED STATES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECAST O U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate ver the past few years, U.S. economic activity has remained

More information

The U.S. Outlook and Monetary Policy. Esther L. George President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

The U.S. Outlook and Monetary Policy. Esther L. George President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City The U.S. Outlook and Monetary Policy Esther L. George President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City February 2, 2016 Central Exchange Kansas City, Mo. The views expressed by

More information

CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014. Factors supporting the U.S. sales outlook: Employment Growth

CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014. Factors supporting the U.S. sales outlook: Employment Growth 93619 CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014 Canadian and U.S. auto sales have strengthened significantly from recession lows. Canadian new motor vehicle sales have surprised

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow

More information

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities January U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities As we enter 2015, the U.S. economy and housing markets are prepared for a robust start. Unlike one year ago,

More information

OBSERVATION. TD Economics ARE CANADIANS PREPARED FOR HIGHER INTEREST RATES?

OBSERVATION. TD Economics ARE CANADIANS PREPARED FOR HIGHER INTEREST RATES? OBSERVATION TD Economics May, ARE CANADIANS PREPARED FOR HIGHER INTEREST RATES? Highlights With the Bank of Canada recently signalling that interest rates may rise sooner than many were anticipating, the

More information

Statement to Parliamentary Committee

Statement to Parliamentary Committee Statement to Parliamentary Committee Opening Remarks by Mr Glenn Stevens, Governor, in testimony to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Sydney, 14 August 2009. The Bank s Statement

More information

Monthly Economic Dashboard

Monthly Economic Dashboard RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves

More information

Why the Lack of Inflation Is a Problem

Why the Lack of Inflation Is a Problem Why the Lack of Inflation Is a Problem May 21, 2013 by Chris Maxey, Ryan Davis of Fortigent Equity Markets Keep Pace Equity markets continued on their tear last week, rising for the fourth straight week.

More information

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Jun 20, 2014 MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Improving Job Market, Weak Housing Market, Lower Mortgage Originations MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: June 2014 Key highlights

More information

The U.S. Economy after September 11. 1. pushing us from sluggish growth to an outright contraction. b and there s a lot of uncertainty.

The U.S. Economy after September 11. 1. pushing us from sluggish growth to an outright contraction. b and there s a lot of uncertainty. Presentation to the University of Washington Business School For delivery November 15, 2001 at approximately 8:05 AM Pacific Standard Time (11:05 AM Eastern) By Robert T. Parry, President and CEO of the

More information

Economic Outlook, November 2013 November 21, 2013. Jeffrey M. Lacker President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Economic Outlook, November 2013 November 21, 2013. Jeffrey M. Lacker President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Outlook, November 2013 November 21, 2013 Jeffrey M. Lacker President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Asheboro SCORE Asheboro, North Carolina It's a pleasure to be with you today to discuss the

More information

The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms

The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms Rick Mattoon Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Right Place Supply Chain Management Conference

More information

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MAY 20 Koç Holding CONTENTS Global Economy... 3 Global Financial Markets... 3 Global Economic Growth Forecasts... 3 Turkey Macroeconomic Indicators... Economic Growth... Industrial

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

2012 First Quarter Equity Market Review

2012 First Quarter Equity Market Review Investment Insights 2012 First Quarter Equity Market Review By William Riegel, Head of Equity Investments After a volatile year in 2011, equity markets grew more confident in the first quarter of 2012.

More information

TIMING YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES USING BUSINESS CYCLES AND STOCK SECTORS. Developed by Peter Dag & Associates, Inc.

TIMING YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES USING BUSINESS CYCLES AND STOCK SECTORS. Developed by Peter Dag & Associates, Inc. TIMING YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES USING BUSINESS CYCLES AND STOCK SECTORS Developed by Peter Dag & Associates, Inc. 5 4 6 7 3 8 3 1 2 Fig. 1 Introduction The business cycle goes through 4 major growth

More information

Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts

Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts September 15 Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Strategic and Corporate Planning Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized

More information

FCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales

FCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales FCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales Fall 2015 FCC Ag Economics: Farm Sector Health Drives Farm Equipment Sales 1 Introduction Agriculture is always evolving. Average farm sizes

More information

The following text represents the notes on which Mr. Parry based his remarks. 1998: Issues in Monetary Policymaking

The following text represents the notes on which Mr. Parry based his remarks. 1998: Issues in Monetary Policymaking Phoenix Society of Financial Analysts and Arizona State University Business School ASU, Memorial Union - Ventana Room April 24, 1998, 12:30 PM Robert T. Parry, President, FRBSF The following text represents

More information

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: 00:01 (UK), 14 July 2014 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Worldwide business confidence wanes Global optimism slips from two-year high Waning confidence centred on eurozone

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Autumn 2013 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001

More information

Is there a revolution in American saving?

Is there a revolution in American saving? MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Is there a revolution in American saving? John Tatom Networks Financial institute at Indiana State University May 2009 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16139/

More information

C&W ECONOMIC UPDATE NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & REGIONAL OFFICE MARKET UPDATE: NEW YORK U.S. & NEW YORK CITY

C&W ECONOMIC UPDATE NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & REGIONAL OFFICE MARKET UPDATE: NEW YORK U.S. & NEW YORK CITY C&W ECONOMIC U.S. & NEW YORK CITY NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & REGIONAL OFFICE MARKET : NEW YORK The national economy remains in slow growth mode as the uncertainty created by the seemingly endless series

More information

Mid-America Business Conditions Weaken Again: Manufacturing Job Losses Mount as Prices Decline

Mid-America Business Conditions Weaken Again: Manufacturing Job Losses Mount as Prices Decline Interview with Goss can be seen at: https://youtu.be/c4_epgaomg0 For More Information Contact: Ernie Goss, Ph.D., (402) 280-4757 ernieg@creighton.edu Cindy Workman (402) 280-2969 cworkman@creighton.edu

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics May 216 (March 216 Data) Highlights During March, credit unions picked-up 577, in new memberships, loan and savings balances grew at a % and 7.6%

More information

Is U.S. Household Savings Rate Dangerously Low?

Is U.S. Household Savings Rate Dangerously Low? GLOBAL COMMENTARY July 22, 28 David Malpass 212-876-44 dmalpass@encimaglobal.com Is U.S. Household Savings Rate Dangerously Low? The front page of Sunday s New York Times highlighted the heavy household

More information

Spain Economic Outlook. Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015

Spain Economic Outlook. Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015 Spain Economic Outlook Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015 The outlook one year ago: the risks were to the upside for

More information

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014 Ministry of Finance Chief Economist - Research, State Revenue and International Affairs June 2013 Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

More information

Fixed Income Market Comments

Fixed Income Market Comments Strategy Fixed Income Weekly Fixed Income Market Comments Weaker economic data and comments from a couple of Federal Reserve Board Governors, who tend to not to speak often as the Federal Reserve District

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

FRBSF ECONOMIC LETTER

FRBSF ECONOMIC LETTER FRBSF ECONOMIC LETTER 15-16 May 18, 15 The Puzzle of Weak First-Quarter GDP Growth BY GLENN D. RUDEBUSCH, DANIEL WILSON, AND TIM MAHEDY The official estimate of real GDP growth for the first three months

More information

The US Economic Outlook

The US Economic Outlook IHS ECONOMICS US Economic Outlook The US Economic Outlook 14 January 2016 ihs.com Patrick Newport, Director of Long Term Forecasting +1 781 301 9125, patrick.newport@ihs.com The US economy on a moderate

More information

Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 321K in November

Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 321K in November Economic Analysis Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 321K in November Kim Fraser Chase Employment growth was a jaw-dropper in November, up an astounding 321K following a revised 243K gain in October. This marks the

More information

PREMIUM TRAFFIC MONITOR APRIL 2014 KEY POINTS

PREMIUM TRAFFIC MONITOR APRIL 2014 KEY POINTS PREMIUM TRAFFIC MONITOR APRIL 2014 KEY POINTS Growth in the number of passengers traveling in premium seats on international markets increased by a solid 3.8% in April compared to a year ago, which is

More information

US Economic Outlook. How long will the ride last? IHS ECONOMICS. US Outlook

US Economic Outlook. How long will the ride last? IHS ECONOMICS. US Outlook IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook US Economic Outlook How long will the ride last? December 2014 ihs.com Douglas Handler, IHS Chief US Economist, +1 781 301 9283, doug.handler@ihs.com US Economic Overview 2 Executive

More information

BALANCED fund. Fourth Quarter Results FOCUSED INVESTING FOR THE LONG-TERM. December 31, 2015

BALANCED fund. Fourth Quarter Results FOCUSED INVESTING FOR THE LONG-TERM. December 31, 2015 BALANCED fund Fourth Quarter Results December 31, 2015 FOCUSED INVESTING FOR THE LONG-TERM BALANCED fund (MAPOX) Fourth Quarter Market Overview - December 31, 2015 Investors facing growing uncertainty

More information

Logo and tagline. 2014 Investment Shareholders Update. meridiancu.ca 1-866-592-2226. Dear Shareholder,

Logo and tagline. 2014 Investment Shareholders Update. meridiancu.ca 1-866-592-2226. Dear Shareholder, 2014 Investment Shareholders Update Dear Shareholder, As we look back on the first half of 2014, I m happy to report that Meridian s continued focus on serving and meeting the needs of our Members while

More information

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank

More information

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The

More information

NFIB: Small Business Survey: Slight Improvement

NFIB: Small Business Survey: Slight Improvement NFIB: Small Business Survey: Slight Improvement May 10, 2016 by Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends is out today. The headline number for

More information

Bond Market Perspectives

Bond Market Perspectives LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Bond Market Perspectives December 16, 2014 Tempting TIPS Anthony Valeri, CFA Fixed Income & Investment Strategist LPL Financial Highlights Lower inflation expectations as a result

More information

Joint Channel Forecast Model 2015 Conducted by IHS-Polk

Joint Channel Forecast Model 2015 Conducted by IHS-Polk Joint Channel Forecast Model 2015 Conducted by IHS-Polk A collaborative effort between the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association and Auto Care Association About the Joint Channel Forecast Model

More information

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the

More information

07 14 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS Gas Prices Not a Risk to Growth by Robert Hughes, Senior Research Fellow

07 14 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS Gas Prices Not a Risk to Growth by Robert Hughes, Senior Research Fellow 7 14 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS Gas Prices Not a Risk to Growth by Robert Hughes, Senior Research Fellow Gas prices 15 percent jump in six months may be painful at the pump but is moderate by historical

More information

The U.S. Macroeconomic Situation and Monetary Policy

The U.S. Macroeconomic Situation and Monetary Policy The U.S. Macroeconomic Situation and Monetary Policy James Bullard President and CEO, FRB-St. Louis CFA Society of St. Louis 15 November 2011 St. Louis, Missouri Any opinions expressed here are my own

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan Mortgage Originations Estimates Revised Higher MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: February 2016 In our most recent forecast, we presented revisions to our mortgage

More information

Volume 53 March 2015

Volume 53 March 2015 Volume 53 March 2015 Ancient Greek playwright Sophocles wrote: No one loves the messenger who brings bad news. To wit, Sophocles would have had great difficulty explaining the domestic stock market over

More information

Economic Review, April 2012

Economic Review, April 2012 Economic Review, April 2012 Author Name(s): Malindi Myers, Office for National Statistics Abstract This note provides some wider economic analysis to support the Statistical Bulletin relating to the latest

More information

Fixed Income Market Comments

Fixed Income Market Comments Strategy Fixed Income Weekly Fixed Income Market Comments Yields moved higher last week as the final reading of second quarter economic growth (GDP) was higher than expected at 3.9% (forecast at 3.7%)

More information

Labour market outlook, spring 2015 SUMMARY

Labour market outlook, spring 2015 SUMMARY Labour market outlook, spring 2015 SUMMARY Ura 2015:4 Labour market outlook Spring 2015 Summary The next few years will be characterised both by continued improvements in job growth and more people entering

More information

The 2024 prospects for EU agricultural markets: drivers and uncertainties. Tassos Haniotis

The 2024 prospects for EU agricultural markets: drivers and uncertainties. Tassos Haniotis 1. Introduction The 2024 prospects for EU agricultural markets: drivers and uncertainties Tassos Haniotis Director of Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations; Communication DG Agriculture and Rural

More information

October 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

October 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy October 2015 Market Volatility likely to Remain Elevated on China Growth Concerns & Fed Rate Uncertainty. Stocks

More information

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey

Markit Global Business Outlook Survey News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: :1 (UK), 1 March 14 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Developed world set to lead strengthening global upturn in 14 Global business optimism hits two-year high Improved

More information

DEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

DEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Research Report DEUTSCHE ASSET & WEALTH MANAGEMENT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Second Quarter 2013 Economic Outlook Business and consumer spending to drive recovery Quantitative easing beginning its expected unwinding

More information

April 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

April 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy April 2015 Stocks to Stabilize & Post Gains with Further Rate Cuts & Easing Measures, ECB s QE, Gradual, Modest

More information

Construction Industry Outlook

Construction Industry Outlook Construction Industry Outlook VERSION 01 YEAR 13 OUTLOOK: Structural Weaknesses www.eulerhermes.us Key Points The residential housing market has begun to show a sustained improvement in 2013 as a result

More information

may 2014 Improved Household Spending & Global Environment Expected to Accelerate Economic Growth A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication

may 2014 Improved Household Spending & Global Environment Expected to Accelerate Economic Growth A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication United States economic update A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication may 2014 The Thaw is Here Improved Household Spending & Global Environment Expected to Accelerate Economic Growth Summary & Conclusions

More information

The Unsweet Sixteen. The Top 10 Factors Impacting the Economy in 2016. 2007 We are here > Treasury notes. Cash

The Unsweet Sixteen. The Top 10 Factors Impacting the Economy in 2016. 2007 We are here > Treasury notes. Cash The Unsweet Sixteen The Top 10 Factors Impacting the Economy in 2016 Ben Miller, CEO 2007 We are here > 2008 2009 Peak Best-Performing Asset Classes Commodities Recession Bottoming Recovery Expansion Treasury

More information

Underutilization in U.S. Labor Markets

Underutilization in U.S. Labor Markets EMBARGOED UNTIL Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 5:45 PM Eastern Time OR UPON DELIVERY Underutilization in U.S. Labor Markets Eric S. Rosengren President & Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of

More information

Perspective. Economic and Market. Does a 2% 10-year U.S. Bond Yield Make Sense When...

Perspective. Economic and Market. Does a 2% 10-year U.S. Bond Yield Make Sense When... James W. Paulsen, Ph.D. Perspective Bringing you national and global economic trends for more than 30 years Economic and Market January 27, 2015 Does a 2% 10-year U.S. Bond Yield Make Sense When... For

More information

Canadian Consumer Credit Trends. Q3 2015 Prepared by: Equifax Analytical Services

Canadian Consumer Credit Trends. Q3 2015 Prepared by: Equifax Analytical Services Canadian Consumer Credit Trends Q3 2015 Prepared by: Equifax Analytical Services About Equifax Inc. Equifax is a global leader in consumer, commercial and workforce information solutions that provide businesses

More information

Opportunity in High Yield Bonds

Opportunity in High Yield Bonds Research Opportunity in High Yield Bonds 2016 Q1 Quarterly Commentary Weyland Capital Management LLC - 22 Deer Street - Portsmouth, New Hampshire 03801 p. 603.433.8994 www.weyland.com This document reflects

More information

Interest Rate Insurance Prices Implicit in Option Prices

Interest Rate Insurance Prices Implicit in Option Prices Page 1 of 5 Interest Rate Insurance Prices Implicit in Option Prices June 16, 2015 (#2015-13) Douglas T. Breeden William W. Priest Professor of Finance, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University and Senior

More information

This page left blank intentionally

This page left blank intentionally NOVEMBER 2014 This page left blank intentionally FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS Higher Revenues, Lower Spending Generate FY 2014-15 Forecast Balance Actual revenue and expenditures for FY 2014, combined with revised

More information

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013 German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Press version Embargo until: Thursday, 18 April 2013, 11.00 a.m. CEST Joint Economic Forecast

More information

Growth and volatility will define global economy in 2016, says PineBridge Investments

Growth and volatility will define global economy in 2016, says PineBridge Investments Growth and volatility will define global economy in 2016, says PineBridge Investments PineBridge Investments forecasts 2.7% GDP growth in the United States Eurozone growth projected to slightly improve

More information

The Impact of Gold Trading

The Impact of Gold Trading The Impact of Gold Trading By: Dan Edward, Market Analyst: FOREXYARD Date: December 2010 In this Issue: I. Introduction A brief history of gold trading II. What affects commodity prices? III. The Global

More information

Financial Information

Financial Information Financial Information Solid results with in all key financial metrics of 23.6 bn, up 0.4% like-for like Adjusted EBITA margin up 0.3 pt on organic basis Net profit up +4% to 1.9 bn Record Free Cash Flow

More information

2013 global equity outlook: Searching for alpha in a stock picker s market

2013 global equity outlook: Searching for alpha in a stock picker s market March 2013 2013 global equity outlook: Searching for alpha in a stock picker s market Saira Malik, Head of Global Equity Research, TIAA-CREF Executive summary The outlook for equity markets is favorable

More information

Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon?

Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon? September 015 MONTHLY MARKET INSIGHT Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon? The fear of rising interest rates, which has clouded investors psyches for years, has

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University

More information

Economic Outlook for FY2005 and Basic Economic and Fiscal Management Measures

Economic Outlook for FY2005 and Basic Economic and Fiscal Management Measures Provisional Translation Economic Outlook for FY2005 and Basic Economic and Fiscal Management Measures December 20th, 2004 Cabinet Approval 1. Main Economic Indicators for FY2004 and FY2005 Gross domestic

More information

Open Market - Asia Monthly Macro Advisor April, 2012

Open Market - Asia Monthly Macro Advisor April, 2012 Open Market - Asia Monthly Macro Advisor April, 2012 Korean Economic Outlook Our Korean Economic Outlook is the first of six country reports in Open Market Asia, a monthly review of regional macroeconomic

More information

Looking Ahead. Looking Behind

Looking Ahead. Looking Behind Investment Commentary April 10, 2015 First Quarter 2015 Key Takeaways Looking Ahead U.S. Stocks Our five-year outlook for U.S. stock returns is quite subdued. This reflects our view that (1) corporate

More information

Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS:

Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS: June, Economic Forecast OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT 7 8 9 5 United States Real GDP $ billions (fourth quarter) $,996 $,575 $,5 $,9 $5, $5,5 $5,9 $6,5 $7, % change over the four quarters.9% -.8% -.%.8%.%.%.6%.5%.8%

More information

Glenn Stevens: The path to prosperity

Glenn Stevens: The path to prosperity Glenn Stevens: The path to prosperity Address by Mr Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, at the 2015 Economic and Social Outlook Conference, organized by The Melbourne Institute and

More information

Why it Matters: Consumer Confidence

Why it Matters: Consumer Confidence Why it Matters: Consumer Confidence Lesson Overview This lesson looks at consumer confidence, a closely watched indicator of the health of the U.S. economy. To begin, students complete a consumer confidence

More information

Is the U.S. Economy Losing Its Dynamism? Dennis Lockhart President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Is the U.S. Economy Losing Its Dynamism? Dennis Lockhart President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Is the U.S. Economy Losing Its Dynamism? Dennis Lockhart President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Creative Leadership Summit Louise Blouin Foundation Metropolitan Club New

More information

FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well

FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well Investment Research General Market Conditions 27 January 2016 FOMC review Less confident Fed likely to stay on hold in March as well As expected, the Fed funds target rate was unchanged at 0.25%-0.50%.

More information

141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 4002 Chicago, IL 60604 (800) 662-9346 www.hightowerreport.com PRECIOUS METALS COMMENTARY 12/03/14

141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 4002 Chicago, IL 60604 (800) 662-9346 www.hightowerreport.com PRECIOUS METALS COMMENTARY 12/03/14 PRECIOUS METALS COMMENTARY 12/03/14 Vulnerable status as full US report slate to lift the $ OVERNIGHT CHANGES THROUGH 6:05 AM (CT): GOLD +0.40, SILVER -10.10, PLATINUM +1.20 London Gold AM Fix $1,203.25,

More information

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6 South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo on Delivery 28 January 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the

More information

Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast

Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast November 2014 Volume XXXVII, No. 4 Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Members Representative Ross Hunter, Chair Representative Terry Nealey Treasurer Jim

More information

A Strong Housing Recovery Fuels Growth

A Strong Housing Recovery Fuels Growth Chapman University A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research FOR RELEASE: ONLINE: June 12, 2013; 10:00 a.m. PRINT: June 13, 2013 CONTACT: James Doti, President and Donald Bren Distinguished Chair of

More information

Canadian Consumer Credit Trends. Q3 2014 Prepared by: Equifax Analytical Services

Canadian Consumer Credit Trends. Q3 2014 Prepared by: Equifax Analytical Services Canadian Consumer Credit Trends Q3 2014 Prepared by: Equifax Analytical Services About Equifax Inc. Equifax is a global leader in consumer, commercial and workforce information solutions that provide businesses

More information

ARC Assigns BBB Rating to Italy

ARC Assigns BBB Rating to Italy ARC Assigns BBB Rating to Italy ISSUER RATINGS DATE Republic of Italy August 28, 2015 ISSUER RATINGS - FOREIGN CURRENCY Medium and Long Term BBB (BBB, Stable) ISSUER RATINGS - LOCAL CURRENCY Medium and

More information

Lecture 4: The Aftermath of the Crisis

Lecture 4: The Aftermath of the Crisis Lecture 4: The Aftermath of the Crisis 2 The Fed s Efforts to Restore Financial Stability A financial panic in fall 2008 threatened the stability of the global financial system. In its lender-of-last-resort

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2015 and 2016. Winter 2014/15

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2015 and 2016. Winter 2014/15 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2015 and 2016 Winter 2014/15 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001

More information

Introduction B.2 & B.3 111

Introduction B.2 & B.3 111 Risks and Scenarios Introduction The forecasts presented in the Economic and Tax Outlook chapter incorporate a number of judgements about how both the New Zealand and the world economies evolve. Some judgements

More information

VIEWPOINT. Real Economic Growth in America. A Stephens Inc. Economic and Financial Commentary. October 1, 2014

VIEWPOINT. Real Economic Growth in America. A Stephens Inc. Economic and Financial Commentary. October 1, 2014 by Thomas Goho, Ph.D., Chief Economic Consultant October 1, 2014 The economy experienced solid growth in the second quarter. Second quarter Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) rebounded robustly with real

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics July 2 (May 2 data) Highlights First quarter data revisions were modest. The number of credit unions was revised down by and assets and loans were

More information

FIXED INCOME STRATEGY HIGHLIGHTS OCTOBER, 2015

FIXED INCOME STRATEGY HIGHLIGHTS OCTOBER, 2015 FIXED INCOME STRATEGY HIGHLIGHTS OCTOBER, 2015 IN BRIEF: The U.S. Fixed Income Markets During the third quarter, the U.S. economy showed continued progress coupled with a decline in the U.S. unemployment

More information

Global Investment Outlook

Global Investment Outlook PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook May 2014 Stocks to Rebound with Q2 GDP & Earnings Recovery, Fresh ECB (& BoJ) Stimulus, Fed keeping U.S. Rates Low & Easing

More information