How To Develop A Mega City

Transcription

1 Top 20 Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society Presented by Sarwant Singh Partner 1

2 Agenda Presentation of Top 10 Mega Trends 1. Urbanization: Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, Smart Cities 2. E-Mobility 3. Social Trends: Geo Socialization, Generation Y and Reverse Brain Drain 4. SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite Orbits 5. World War 3: Cyber Warfare 6. RoboSlaves 7. Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and Haptic Technology 8. Innovating to Zero! : Zero Emission Technologies 9. Emerging Transportation Corridors 10. Health, Wellness and Well-Being Overview of Next Top 10 Mega Trends Key Strategic Conclusions Workshop : How To Apply Mega Trends Within an Organisation to Develop Growth Strategies Q&A Session 2

3 Urbanization 3

4 Three Main Trends in Urbanization: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors MEGA CITY City With A Minimum Population Of 5 Million EXAMPLE: Greater London MEGA REGIONS Cities Combining With Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population over 10 Million) EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming Jo- Toria ) MEGA CORRIDORS The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega Regions EXAMPLE: Hong Kong- Shenzhen-Guangzhou in China (Population 120 Million) 4

5 By 2020, We Will See Development of Mega City Corridors and Networked, Integrated and Branded Cities 1950s Urbanisation 2020s : Branded Cities Creation of the historic centre and districts 2000s Suburbanisation Ring Road Motorway, Living Areas growing outside the ring road as seen in London Source: Frost & Sullivan Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road 2015s Network City Megacity Trend City borders will expand out of suburbs to include daughter cities. The Core City will enclose multiple downtowns. Multiple Transportation Models will be used and more than 50% will use public transportation Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost sensitive activities: city centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for double income, no kids households. Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl 5

6 Smart Cities Green Replaced by SMART Concepts Smart Diamond to define Smart city S Governance S Citizen S Business S City Planning S ICT S Buildings Source: Frost & Sullivan S Mobility S Information Technology S Energy 6

7 Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America. China and India to see over 50 New Sustainable Cities San Francisco Treasure Island Coyote Springs Arcosanti Boulder Vancouver Seattle Portland Montreal Toronto Destiny Babcock Ranch Bogota Amsterdam London GIFT Göteborg Stockholm Reykjavik Oslo Hammarby Sjöstad Clonburris Copenhagen St Davids Freiburg Paris Dongtan Barcelona Changsha Khajuraho Pune Kochi Tianjin Songdo Meixi Lake Singapore City Legend Waitakere, N.Z. Cities built from scratch Existing eco cities Curitiba Cape Town Masdar Moreland, Australia Existing eco megacities Source: Frost & Sullivan 7

8 Case Study - Lavasa (India) Smart Township Private infrastructure companies in India building integrated township that offer smart living and working»india s first and largest hill city to evolve over next 12 years.»this integrated township is built across 12,500 acres at a cost of Rs 1,400 billion»dasve the first town will be ready by end 2010/11. 8

9 Smart Market Opportunity : Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition Energy/Infrastructure Players T&D Technology Power Electronics Renewable Energy Integrated Distribution Management Substation Automation AMI-Enabled Metering Etc. IP Networks Digital Technology Analysis Software Wireless Communication Technology Integration Network Security Etc. Building Automation Demand-Side Management Connectivity of devices Monitoring and Sensing Smart Grid Integration Etc. IT Players Automation/Building Control Players Source: Frost & Sullivan. 9

10 E-Mobility 10

11 E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020 Total 30 million 2 Wheelers (2020) Total 10 Million 4 Wheelers (2020) Sanyo Enacle XM 3000 Electric Moped The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton 11

12 Electric Vehicle Market Eco-System Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields Utilities Integrator (e.g. Better Place) OEMs Charging Station Manufacturers Government System/Battery Manufacturers 12

13 Electric Vehicles Will Usher New Mobility Business Model : Future Leasing Models To Sell 75% Of Vehicles; The Rest 25% Sold Traditionally Business Model 1 Business Model 2 Business Model 3 Business Model 4 TYPE Energy Package Maintenance Package Part Subsidy Full Subsidy COVER Partial battery lease + Electricity Energy Package+ Insurance+ Maintenance Maintenance Package+ Discount Maintenance Package+ 100% Discount ENERGY Monthly Bill Flat: Max 2000km/month Flat: 25,000km/year Flat: 30,000km/year CONTRACT NA NA 4 years 7 years SUBSIDY NA NA 50% car price Free car MONTHLY LEASE Up to 150 Up to ~ Source: Better Place, Frost & Sullivan Other Possible Leasing models Flexible Mileage Unlimited Miles Max number of miles Pay as you go Flexible Contract The customer opts for the number of years and flexible mileage- customized lease 13

14 Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered by an Integrator in the E-Mobility Market Services Charging Stations Batteries E-Mobility Vehicles Electricity Telematics & other value added services Possible Revenue Streams Manufacturing & Sales Installation & Maintenance Charge Payment Program / Subscription based services Revenues from value added services Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging Battery Leasing Model Refurbishing Recycling Battery 2 nd life Battery Swapping Extend to other E-mobility solutions Battery Integration Energy Subscription Packages Extended E- mobility solution e.g. vehicle sharing Offering After- Sales services Market green solutions such as Solar panels to E- Mobility client base Recycling and Refurbishing Subscription based Energy service Scheme Load Management investment in renewable energy such as wind farms and gain carbon credits Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy Data Aggregator ( working with other partners) Battery management services Advanced booking of charging stations V2V and V2G Communication Added value service (POIs, Diagnostics, etc) Level 1 Vs Level 2 Vs Level 3 Charging Source: Frost & Sullivan 14

15 Social Trends 15

16 Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialization in 2020 Used For: Meet Ups, Restaurant and Nightclub Reviews, Concert Events Used For: Digital Marketing: Receiving Updates on Promotion and Offers Used For: Networking in Business Conferences: Updates on Potential Contacts Used For: Local Real Estate News, Geo Socializing with Friends 16

17 Reverse Brain Drain and Huge Shortage of CXO Positions In BRIC Nations Will Make Us Look For Opportunities Overseas Canada United States United Kingdom Russia Japan Brazil UAE India Malaysia Australia S. Africa High Low Degree of Indians and Chinese living abroad High Low Degree of NRIs and Overseas Chinese returning to Homeland (Reverse Brain Drain) IMPACT Steady flow of foreign professionals and migrants returning back home to fill vacancies for CXO positions Salary on par with developed countries (in terms of purchasing power) and even more benefits 2 million BPO- KPO jobs for foreign nationals from China, Poland, Philippines, 17

18 World Population in 2020 : 2.56 Billion Population in Age Group 15 to 34 (currently Gen Y) Important Customer of the Future 2010 World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), Billion Around 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone 7.55 Billion Note: Gen Y : Population between Years today Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations 18

19 Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle Personalization and Individualization Techno Savvy and Connected 24 X 7 Civic and Environmentally Friendly Demanding and Impatient Fast and the Furious Personalized Search and News Gaming Gizmos Eco- Transport Instant Text Messaging Smart Phones Social Networking Profiles Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic) Instant Chat Facebook-on-the Move Personalized Products Microblogs Paperless Banking Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing) 19

20 Technology 20

21 New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications By 2020, there will be approximately 927 Satellites (Communication 405; Earth Observation 151; Navigation 85; Reconnaissance 212 and R&D 75) Galileo - intended to provide more precise measurements than GPS or GLONASS China developing Beidou GNSS Enabled Applications: Navigation (Civil, Military) Broadband Internet and Wireless Network GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery system Automated guidance of of machines, real-time structure monitoring, logistics and site management Automobile Navigation and Intelligent Traffic Control System Applications Commercial market will be driven by broadcast; Mobile Satellite Services (MSS); voice and data applications, bundling IPTV 21

22 World War 3 : With Advancement in Technology, Information Warfare to be the Next Domain of Conflict Space Photographic Satellites, GPS, Communications, Ballistic Missile Defence, Signals, Astronauts Air ISR Platforms, Combat Aircraft, Transport, Helicopters, Maritime Surveillance, Communications, Airmen Naval Combat Platforms, Communications, ISR, Transport, Sailors Information Environment Land Combat Vehicles, Transport, Communications, Soldiers Physical, Cognitive, Informational Dimensions 22

23 Future RoboSlave: Pervasive Robotic Technology in 2020 That Will Act as a Slave in Everyday Life Robots as Pets Robots for Household Chores Robots for Companionship Robots to Wait on Hand and Foot Robots To Help With Strategic Planning and Business Robots as Waiters Robots as Nannies 23

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25 Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and Experience Impacting Personal Mobility Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Products without leaving their homes Virtual Classes and Laboratories and Daily 3D Field Trips to Different Countries and Planets Virtual Surgeries and Medical Training Virtual Business Conferences Social Networking: 3D Avatars Enabling People to Lead Multiple Lives 25

26 Innovating to Zero! 26

27 Innovating To ZERO : Snapshot of a Zero Concept World in 2020 Emerging Technologies Innovating to Zero Breaches of Security, Zero Accidents, Zero Fatalities and Zero Emissions in 2020 Zero Waste/ Emissions from Factories Zero Debts Complete Recyclability from Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept) Zero Breaches of Security Zero Defects Zero Emissions from Cars Zero Accidents Zero Crime Rates M65B-18 27

28 Possible Zero Emission Technologies in Power Generation - Innovating Toward Reducing CO 2 Emissions in 2020 Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR) Wide deployment of TWRs could enable projected global stockpiles of depleted uranium to sustain 80% of the world s population at U.S. per capita energy usages for over a millennium Third Generation Bio Fuels (Algae and Exotic Bio Fuels) By 2022, algae biofuels will be the largest biofuel category overall, accounting for 40 billion of the estimated 109 billion gallons of biofuels produced. INNOVATING Wind Energy To Account for 1,900,000 MW of electricity production in 2020 TO ZERO! Geothermal Energy Share of Geothermal Electricity in total electricity produced in 2020 is 1.5% Solar PV Cells Capacity of Solar Power to Increase from 21,540 MW in 2020 to 630,000 MW in 2040 Ocean Energy To supply approximately 10 percent of the world's electricity needs by

29 Infrastructure Development 29

30 Integration of the Trans Siberian Rail into Eurasian Rail Network Will Result in Industrial and Business Hubs Along the Railroad Development of Trans-Siberian railroad will have significant socio economic and business impact to Russia Yekaterinburg Sredneuralsk Verhnya Pyshma Berezoviy St. Petersburg (Warsaw, Berlin) Helsinki Kaliningrad Minsk Moscow Nizhny Kiev Novgorod Severka Shyrokaya Rechka Yekaterinburg Koltsovo Astrakhan Novosibirsk Krasnoyarsk Khabarovsk (Bucharest, Aleksandrupolis) ITC North South Irkutsk Trans-Siberian Railway Pan European N 2 Pan European N 9 Baikal-Amur Mainline Vladivostok DRAFT VERSION 30

31 High Speed Rail to Come to US : Overview of Future High Speed Rail Projects in US California to connect Bay Area with LA through an ambitious $42bn program with construction starting in 2 years Impact to Personal Mobility 1.Air travel will diminish rapidly between the high speed rail link cities 2.Train operators could start offering integrated transport e.g. Car sharing 3.Will take congestion off highways, people will drive less long distance 4.Attractive cities for car sharing 5.Small city car sales will grow in these cities 31

32 Healthcare 32

33 If Current Trends Hold, By 2050 Health Care Spending Will Almost Double Claiming 20% 30% Of GDP For Some Economies $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,517 $717 Private Per Capita Spending (2007) Public Per Capita Spending (2007) Spending as % of GDP (2007) Estimated Spending as % of GDP in 2050 Unsustainable Levels!!! 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% $3,000 $2,000 $3,647 $1,684 $854 $914 $680 $989 $760 $1,018 $494 $1,165 $449 $352 $593 $431 $514 $ % 10.0% $1,000 $2,884 $2,493 $2,665 $2,451 $2,693 $2,337 $2,527 $2,110 $2,614 $1,927 $2,469 $2,371 $1,938 $1,927 $1,829 $1, % $0 0.0% In almost all countries worldwide, per capita healthcare spending is rising faster than per capita income. No country can spend an ever-rising share of its output on health care, indefinitely. Spending growth must eventually fall in line with growth in per capita income. 33

34 Health Economics Dictate a Shift in Spending Away From Treating and Towards Predicting, Diagnosing and Monitoring Healthcare Spending by Type of Activity 100% 90% 80% Monitor, 10% Monitor, 12% Monitor, 16% 70% 60% 50% Treat, 70% Treat, 60% Treat, 35% 40% 30% Diagnose, 27% 20% 10% 0% Diagnose, 19% Diagnose, 15% Predict, 22% Predict, 5% Predict, 9%

35 Overview of Next Top 10 Trends SOCIAL Women Empowerment and Women CEOs Power to the Middle Class Reverse Brain Drain and CXO Positions in Developing Economies INFRASTRUCTURE Future Investment in Infrastructure : Power, Water and Transport ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ECONOMY Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers New Shores: Emerging Outsourcing Hotspots Future Global 500 Companies by Region New Trade Zones SMART Clouds: The Next in Cloud Computing Future of Consumer Electronics Wireless Intelligence Future Broadband Applications Innovative Technologies of the Future: Global Power Generation Trends BUSINESS HEALTH & WELLNESS SMART FACTORY INDUSTRY New Business Models From Fat to Fit: Health, Wellness and Well Being Factory of the Future: SMART and GREEN Healthcare, Chemicals, Energy Environment, Automotive Aerospace and Defence ICT, Building Technologies Measurement and Instrumentation Electronics and Security 35

36 Key Strategic Conclusions 36

37 Key Strategic Conclusions 1. Mega trends are connected and inter-wined which suggests synergetic opportunities between them 2. It is important to understand the eco-system of the mega-trend and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability 3. All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable opportunities 4. These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the life-cycle speed of the past decade 5. Organisations need Mega Trend champions and teams within their organisation structure to best exploit the opportunities 37

38 Workshop From Macro to Micro 38

39 Workshop Objectives and Agenda Workshop Aims: To present and familiarize audience with F&S Mega Trends To evaluate growth opportunities by identifying impact on your industry, region, market, product, technology, and personal life A B WORKSHOP AGENDA (2 Hours 30 Minutes) 30 Mins: Introduction and Summary of Mega Trends 2 Hours: Workshop 30 Mins: Brainstorming and Completion of Templates (Exercise 1-2) 30 Mins: Discussion of Opportunities (Exercise 3) 30 Mins: Presentation by 2 to 3 Selected Teams 15 Mins: Wrap up 39

40 From Macro to Micro: How To Take Mega Trends from Information to Analysing New Opportunities Mega Trend Selected Trends That Impact Your Business And Markets Macro Micro Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs Example: Urbanization, Satellites Sub Trend A Sub Layer of Trends that Has Wide Ranging Impact Impact on Future Product/ Technology Example: Mega City electric cars with small turning radius, autonomous parking in busy cities, Facebook on wheels, seamless switching from home to car Example: Three concepts of urbanization will emerge: megacities, mega regions and mega corridors. Smart Cities. Civilian satellites means high speed broadband, wireless and 4G and free wi-fi in public places/cities Impact to Your Industry Visualizing The Roadmap Of These Critical Forces Through Scenario Building and Macro Economic Forecasts Example: New Product Opportunity - New Mega City Cars, Car sharing, New Technology Opportunities Connected car, e.g. Internet Radio Example: People in future will need personal mobility not necessarily cars to commute to work. This will lead to need for integrated mobility combining all forms of transport including cars 40

41 Workshop Steps S1 S2 S3 S4 41

42 Workshop Exercises Each Team will Complete the Following Exercises Exercise 1 Exercise 2 Exercise 3 Exercise 4 (Home Work) Group Activities Followed By Presentation of Selected 2 3 Teams 42

43 Sample Exercise Templates to be Completed Ex. 1 Ex. 2 Ex. 3 (Identify Top 10 Mega Trends) Impact on BU (Automotive) Impact on Region Growth Opportunities : Product & Technology 1. Mega Cities Polarization of Passenger Cars Sizes Creation of Demand for Small cars and City Electric Cars Mega Cities Will Give Rise to Multi-Modal Mobility creating a market for mobility integrators Integrated Mobility and On-Demand Solutions will rise Market for Sustainable Car-Sharing will Evolve 2. High Speed Rail Transit Oriented Development Air travel will diminish rapidly between the high speed rail link cities Train operators could start offering integrated transport e.g. Car sharing Will take congestion off highways, people will drive less long distance Attractive cities for car sharing Small city car sales will grow in these cities Group Name : Industry : BRIC Countries to become major sales powerhouse for Vehicles Cities from Developing Economies will witness growth in use of private vehicles Mega Cities in Developed Economies will witness reduction of private vehicle Moving toward Greener Cities will lead to adoption of more Eco-Technologies (EV) Down Sizing of Engines, Vehicle Weight Reduction, New technologies - Turbo Chargers, Start-Stop Systems, Stop and go systems in cities, Low turning radius cars, Internet radio in cars

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45 Discussions 45

46 For Questions and More Information Sarwant Singh Partner Practice Director, Automotive and Transportation Direct: Mobile: sarwant.singh@frost.com 46