The Future of Mobile Robots In 2020, 26 Million Mobile Robots Will Enable Autonomy in Smart Factories, Unmanned Transportation, and Connected Homes

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1 The Future of Mobile Robots In 2020, 26 Million Mobile Robots Will Enable Autonomy in Smart Factories, Unmanned Transportation, and Connected Homes NE5C-MT January 2015 NE5C-MT 1

2 Contents Section Slide Number Executive Summary 3 Research Scope, Aims, and Objectives of the Study 18 Definitions Used in the Study 25 Definition, Types, and Industry Value Chain of Mobile Robots 28 Mobile Robots by Application Logistics and Distribution 41 Mobile Robots by Application Defense and Security 47 Mobile Robots by Application Automotive (Driverless Cars) 60 Mobile Robots by Application Oceanic Exploration 76 Mobile Robots by Application Household (Personal Robots) 82 Market Attractiveness in Units 92 Mobile Robotic Implications to Our Future Key Trends 94 Conclusion and Strategic Recommendations 103 Appendix 108 NE5C-MT 2

3 Executive Summary Key Findings of the Study Key Takeaways, Global, The key mobile robotic applications of the future logistics and distribution, defense, personal and household, oceanic exploration, and autonomous cars will generate million units by Implementing the use of mobile robots across different industries will drive value through effective return and payback on investments. Firms of the future will be more operationally efficient, scaling down costs by 60% as the number of laborers replaced by a machine will range from 2 to 10. With the convergence of Big Data and advanced manufacturing systems, intelligent autonomous machines will play a major role in the fourth industrial revolution, leading to the genesis of smart factories that are fully automated and initiating a fundamental shift in operating procedures that transforms the way manufacturing firms of the future operate. With the global aging population expected to multiply by 2030, the market for personal robots is likely to explode as approximately % of households in the United States and Japan will own robots for elderly care, personal assistance, and companionship. Autonomous cars will transform the automotive industry. With a % decrease in accidents, % increase in car utilization, and 80% decrease in cost per trip mile expected, driverless cars will generate an expected annual cost savings of approximately $ billion in the United States alone. NE5C-MT 4

4 Executive Summary Key Findings of the Study (continued) Key Takeaways, Global, Future state-of-the-art mobile platforms and technologies will drive autonomy as intelligent machines are able to adapt to varied environments and make informed decisions, creating an environment for better human-machine collaboration. 7 8 Mobile robots through autonomous self-guiding vehicles, which are expected to grow at an annual rate of 70% by 2020, will generate higher order-picking quality and better transportation of palletized goods. By 2035, % of US combat soldiers are likely to be replaced by mobile robotic squads for real-time intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance as bomb squad robots, drones, and remote-control gun firing gain more recognition. This will result in a transfer of jobs as soldiers are used for maintenance, guidance, and training. NE5C-MT 5

5 Impact of Automation Mega Trends Driving Adoption of Mobile Robots to 2030 Amalgamation of key Mega Trends will enhance human-machine collaboration and facilitate Industry 4.0. Key Mega Trends to 2030 Social Trends Innovating to Zero Smart is the New Green Connectivity & Convergence Aging Population Zero Wastage Smart Factory Big Data and Cloud Computing 2 4 Increase in Wages Zero CO2 Emissions Macro to Micro Implications to Future of Robotics Industry 4.0 Human Collaborative Robots Cloud Robotics Autonomous Cognitive Robotics NE5C-MT 6

6 Mobile Robot Enabling Industry 4.0 Industry 4.0 will spark a revolution for mobile robots as the need for self-programmed factories and automation increases. Industrial, st Industrial Mechanical Manufacturing 2nd Industrial Use of Electricity 3rd Industrial Use of IT Systems and Automation 4th Industrial Use of Cyber-physical Systems Impact of Robotics on Industrial 1st Robotic Industrial Automation 2nd Robotic Sensitive, Safe Robot-based Automation 3rd Robotic Mobility 4th Robotic Intelligent and Perceptive Robot Systems Mobile Robots to enable Self- Programmed and Smart Factories of Industry 4.0 NE5C-MT 7

7 Mobile Robot Enabling Industry 4.0 (continued) 4th industrial revolution will expand mobile robot applications in the smart factory from mundane jobs such as assembly to building sophisticated machinery on production floors. Industry 4.0 Aspects, Global, 2014 Data Deluge Data interfacing, processing & modeling Informed decision making Artificial Intelligence Human-like intelligence Solve complex issues Sensor Sensing & perception Path tractability Cloud Computing Sharing of open source Software & hardware Advanced Manufacturing Systems Cyber-physical products Intelligent Mobile Robots that can Adapt, Interact, and Communicate Real-time Information Relay and Data Security Retrieve product/ surrounding details Data/network security Cognitive Systems for Full Autonomy Adapt to surroundings Decision-making Human expressions Machine-to-machine Communications Integration of sensors Zero fault Converged Infrastructure & Shared Services On-board computing Crowd sourcing for mobile robotic funding 3D Printing for Enhanced Safety and Robust Features Design flexibility High-speed prototyping Mass customization Expanding Robotics Apps Real-time autonomy Smart systems Time productivity & enhanced efficiency Fault discovery Optimization Smart Factory: Increased Economic Productivity 24-hour output No night shift NE5C-MT 8

8 Mobile Robots Definition and Scope Mobile Robots have the ability to move about their environments without any human intervention or control. They are widely used across different domestic, industrial, military, and security settings. The automatic machines move using either human-like legs, wheels, or tracks and are able to navigate across different environments. What Types of Robots were Considered? What Industrial Applications were Considered? What was Measured? Included Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV) Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) Unmanned Maritime Vehicles (UMV) Automotive Deep Sea Mining Logistics & Distribution Defense & Security Oceanic Exploration Household Shipment Units Return on Investment Payback Period Humanoid/Legged Robot Fixed Robots Excluded Robots that Require Human Intervention Healthcare Construction & Demolition Revenue Potential Exoskeletons NE5C-MT 9

9 Scope of Research Service by Type of Mobile Robot Mobile robots based on functionality can operate effectively in land, airspace, and water. Mobile Robot by Classification, Global, UGV Humanoid/Legged Robot UAV UMV Better mobility across rough terrain using skid steer drive Superior traction better able to push/pull loads Leg on wheels For all types of terrains 4- to 6-legged robots most successful and stable Powered aerial vehicles with pre-programmed flight plans Cost effective Minimizes risk on life Self-programmed Gathers data in bodies of water Image Source: commons.wikimedia.org NE5C-MT 10

10 Mobile Robot Types and Applications With mobile technologies constantly improving, robots of the future will be designed and built to cater to specific end-user applications ranging from defense and security to delivery and logistics. Type End-user Application UGV Automotive industry: Driverless cars Defense & security Logistics, warehouse & distribution Food, beverage, and grocery industries UAV UMV Mobile Robot Types and End-user Applications Defense & security Logistics & distribution Research institutions Defense: Port security, mine countermeasures, inspection Scientific research Oceanic exploration: Deep sea mining, fault discovery Humanoid/Legged Robot Personal market assistants, entertainment, security Manufacturing industry: Collaborative robots NE5C-MT 11

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