OptimizeRx Corporation (OPRX) Pharma/EHR Conference Revelations Strengthen Our Long-Term Outlook; Reiterate BUY, $3.00 Target

Transcription

1 MERRIMAN CAPITAL Pharma/EHR Conference Revelations Strengthen Our Long-Term Outlook; Reiterate BUY, $3.00 Target Brian Murphy (646) October 3, 2014 Key Metrics Price: $1.20 Price Target: $ Week Range: $0.91-$2.12 Cash (M): $3.5 Debt (M): $0.0 Net Cash/Share: $0.15 Book Value/Share: $0.20 Market Data Market Cap (M): $28.0 Enterprise Value (M): $24.5 Shares Out (M): 14.8 Float (M): Day Avg. Vol: 27,695.0 Merriman Estimates Sales (M) EPS Stock Performance FY14E FY15E FY16E 1Q $1.4A Q $1.5A Q $ Q $ FY (Dec) $6.6 $11.2 $18.4 EV/S 3.7x 2.2x 1.3x 1Q $(0.04)A Q $0.00A Q $ Q $ FY (Dec) $(0.02) $0.05 $0.15 Company Description Founded by a group of pharmaceutical industry veterans, OPRX develops software solutions for the health care industry to facilitate information exchange between pharmaceutical manufacturers and physicians, thereby improving affordable medication delivery and adherence to patients. OCT-13 FEB-14 JUN-14 SEP-14 Investment Conclusion OPRX's flagship product - SampleMD - allows doctors to access sample vouchers and co-pay coupons directly from pharmaceutical manufacturers through its e-prescribe systems to search, print, or electronically dispense drug samples directly to patients and pharmacies. We attended the CBInet EHR Pharmaceutical Industry Conference on Wednesday in Philadelphia. Discussions with industry practitioners, key channel partners, and OPRX personnel bolster our long-term bullish thesis on OPRX shares. Separately, we adjust our model to reflect a smoother near-term revenue growth curve and introduce our 2016 revenue and EPS estimates of $18.4 million and $0.15, respectively. We maintain our BUY rating and $3.00 price target, which is now based on 20x our 2016 EPS estimate of $0.15. Investment Summary Our work at the CBInet EHR Pharmaceutical Industry Conference increases our conviction in OPRX's strong value proposition and leadership position in the underpenetrated and rapidly-growing e-couponing niche. Our discussions with conference attendees, OPRX executives and senior field personnel, as well as key OPRX channel partners bolster our conviction in the company's long-term outlook. The conference (in just its second year) drew roughly 145 attendees, up about 25% from last year. We were encouraged by the broad-based industry endorsements we encountered for e-couponing in general and OPRX in particular. We found multi-channel marketing managers from blue-chip Pharmaceutical companies as well as representatives from leading EHR software vendors that actively evangelized and testified to the virtues and high ROI of OPRX's solutions. Overall, we came away very comfortable with OPRX's strong competitive position in the e-couponing niche, the company's ability to continue to grow its EHR distribution reach, the healthcare industry's secular e-prescribing adoption trends, and OPRX's long-term growth opportunity. Institutional inertia among many Pharmaceutical companies, with respect to allocation of marketing channel budgets, appears to be the greatest nearterm impediment to adoption. Despite the clear benefits and high ROI of e- couponing, multi-channel marketing managers at many Pharmaceutical companies still face an uphill battle with respect to the "internal selling" of marketing via EHR channels. In institutions that have been traditionally dominated by sales cultures and with EHR marketing and e-couponing still in its infancy, getting marketing budgets allocated to new initiatives can be challenging, particularly the way large companies guard their brand assets and require lengthy legal and compliance reviews. These issues, which are common to all technical products early in the adoption curve, typically require a fair amount of "missionary work" and customer education. Here we find OPRX's strategic partnership with Grey Group to be right on time. We saw tangible evidence at the conference that GHG was already having an impact on improving OPRX's messaging and marketing collateral. We think GHG is a great ambassador for the OPRX brand and suspect that their efforts will help to overcome some of the typical early-adopter issues that OPRX may be facing on the Pharma side. We adjust our model to reflect revised assumptions for a more modest nearterm revenue growth curve and introduce our 2016 estimates. With OPRX facing difficult revenue comparisons in 2H:14 (revenue grew about 180% in 2H:13) and with the realities of Pharma adoption discussed above, we are updating our assumptions to reflect a smoother revenue growth curve through 2015 and introducing our revenue and EPS estimates of $18.4 million and $0.15, respectively. Our full-year 2014 EPS estimate moves to a loss of $0.02 (from breakeven) and our 2015 EPS estimate moves to $0.05 (from $0.13). Nevertheless, our revenue outlook through 2016 still factors a robust 65% growth rate. We maintain our BUY rating and $3.00 price target, which is now based on 20x our 2016 EPS estimate of $0.15 (assuming 27 million shares outstanding in 2015). See page 2 for Valuation and Risks. PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON PAGE(S) 4-6 OF THIS REPORT 250 Montgomery Street, 16th Floor, San Francisco, CA (415) Main (415) Fax (800) Trading - twitter - OTCQX: MERR Member FINRA/SIPC

2 Valuation To value OPRX, we consider the company's large growth opportunity and the company's early leadership in an under-penetrated niche market. We think OPRX's growth opportunity is closely tied to the secular growth in e-prescriptions (which is expected to nearly double by 2016), driven by the continued adoption of EHR systems. Our $3.00 price target is now based on 20x (a discount to our previous multiple of 23x to reflect the extended valuation horizon) our newly-introduced 2016 EPS estimate of $0.15 (assuming an estimated share count of 27 million in 2016). Over the past year, OPRX has traded in a range of $ $2.12 and the stock currently trades over 40% off its 52-week high. With more than 100% upside to our price target, we reiterate our BUY rating. Risks that could impede the realization of our price target The company is small with limited resources. Loss of key management personnel could detract from the company's operational capability. Encroachment on OPRX's technology and value proposition by EHR/EMR software channel partners or pharmaceutical customers could pressure margins and impede sales growth. OPRX faces potential litigation risk surrounding its proprietary technology. Customer concentration is high, with two customers accounting for 58% of sales in 2013 and three customers that accounted for 44% of revenue in 1Q:14. Unfavorable consolidation in the EHR/EMR space (i.e. OPRX channel partners acquired by vendors who do not utilize OPRX' technology) could cause potential disruption for OPRX's distribution capacity. October 3,

3 Optimizerx Corp., (OPRX) Income Statement ($000s except per share data) Mar Jun Sep Dec 2013 MarA JunA Sep Dec Net revenue 1,112 1, ,104 1,373 1,811 4,957 1,317 1,454 1,700 2,125 6,597 11,200 18,400 Revenue share expense NM ,156 1, ,760 5,040 8,280 Gross profit NM 1, , , ,169 3,836 6,160 10,120 Advertising Professional fees ,250 Consulting Salaries, wages and benefits 865 1, , ,498 1,850 2,250 Rent Depreciation and amortization Stock-based compensation ,000 1,000 1,000 General and administrative (82) Other (574) Total operating expense 2,565 2, , ,974 1, , ,299 4,505 5,985 Operating Income (1,454) (455) (224) (97) (653) (53) (85) 329 (463) 1,655 4,135 Total other income (expense) (667) Pretax income (loss) (2,121) (455) (224) (97) (653) (53) (55) 369 (392) 1,805 4,135 Income tax benefit (expense) (387) 0 Net income (loss) (2,121) (455) (224) (97) (653) (53) (55) 369 (392) 1,418 4,135 Diluted EPS ($0.15) ($0.03) ($0.02) ($0.00) $0.00 NM** $0.01 ($0.04) ($0.00) ($0.00) $0.01 ($0.02) $0.05 $0.15 Diluted share count 13,922 14,211 14,232 33,608 34,086 NM** 14,713 16,684 23,242 24,000 25,000 22,231 26,000 27,000 Growth (year over year) Sales growth NM 79.0% 103.2% 114.2% 203.0% 162.0% 149.2% 96.8% 31.7% 23.8% 17.4% 33.1% 69.8% 64.3% Operating expense growth NM -9% 16% 27% 144% -77% 28% 101% 29% -25% NM 45% 5% 33% % of sales Gross margin NM 94% 76% 59% 100% 36% 64% 62% 63% 55% 55% 58% 55% 55% Operating expense 230.8% 117.1% 109.7% 67.9% 99.2% 7.1% 60.0% 111.7% 66.5% 60.0% 39.5% 65.2% 40.2% 32.5% Operating Income % -22.9% -33.5% -8.8% 0.8% 29.1% 4.3% -49.6% -3.6% -5.0% 15.5% -7.0% 14.8% 22.5% *Source: Company reports and Merriman Capital estimates ** Not sharecount available for 4Q:13 October 3,

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5 OptimizeRx Corporation currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Merriman Capital. Merriman Capital provided non-investment banking securities-related services and non-securities services to OptimizeRx Corporation. Merriman Capital has coordinated research coverage for OptimizeRx Corporation. The research reflects the independent opinion of the research analyst and Merriman Capital has not represented to OptimizeRx Corporation that the research will recommend an investment in OptimizeRx Corporation s securities or be otherwise favorable to OptimizeRx Corporation. Merriman Capital received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services from OptimizeRx Corporation in the past 12 months, including, among other things, corporate services and advice on strategic initiatives, financing solutions, capital structure and publishing research. OptimizeRx Corporation currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Merriman Capital. Merriman Capital provided investment banking securities-related services to OptimizeRx Corporation. Merriman Capital has coordinated research coverage for OptimizeRx Corporation. The research reflects the independent opinion of the research analyst and Merriman Capital has not represented to OptimizeRx Corporation that the research will recommend an investment in OptimizeRx Corporation s securities or be otherwise favorable to OptimizeRx Corporation. Merriman Capital, Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services within the last 12 months from OptimizeRx Corporation. Merriman Capital, Inc. makes a market in OptimizeRx Corporation. Key to investment Ratings (expected total share price return inclusive of dividend reinvestment, if applicable). As of February 1, 2013 Merriman Capital LLC added Speculative into its rating system. As of December 23, 2013 Merriman Capital LLC added Unrated into its rating system. : Merriman Capital, Inc. expects the stock price to appreciate 10% or more over the next 12 months. Initiate or increase position. Speculative : Merriman Capital, Inc. believes the stock price could appreciate 15% or more over the next months if anticipated contingencies materialize, however, investors are cautioned that initiating or increasing a position presents a significantly higher degree of risk than our recommendation. Neutral: Merriman Capital, Inc. believes the stock price is fairly valued at current levels. Maintain position or take no action. Sell: Merriman Capital, Inc. expects the stock price to depreciate 10% or more over the next 12 months. Sell or decrease position. Unrated: Merriman Capital, Inc. currently has no opinion regarding the future price of this stock. Investors are cautioned that initiating or increasing a position in such a security presents a significantly high degree of risk and may be unsuitable for certain investors depending on their risk profile. Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Disclosure Rating Count Ratings Distribution Count *Investment Banking % % Spec % 0 0% Neutral % 0 0% Sell % 0 0% Unrated % 0 0% * Percent of companies under research coverage from which Merriman Capital, Inc. received compensation for investment banking services provided in the previous 12 months or expects to receive or intends to seek in the next three months October 3,

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