OptimizeRx Corporation (OPRX)
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- Nigel Golden
- 8 years ago
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1 MERRIMAN CAPITAL The Fragmented EHR Landscape Is Ripe For Intermediation, OPRX Is Positioned Well; Reiterate BUY Brian Murphy (646) March 27, 2015 Key Metrics Price: $1.37 Price Target: $ Week Range: $0.76-$1.92 Cash (M): $3.3 Debt (M): $0.0 Net Cash/Share: $0.14 Book Value/Share: $0.21 Market Data Market Cap (M): $32.1 Enterprise Value (M): $28.8 Shares Out (M): 23.4 Float (M): Day Avg. Vol: 9,902.0 Merriman Estimates Sales (M) EPS FY14E FY15E FY16E 1Q $1.4A $ Q $1.5A $ Q $1.6A $ Q $1.9 $ FY (Dec) $6.3 $8.0 $13.0 EV/S 4.6x 3.6x 2.2x 1Q $(0.04)A $(0.01) -- 2Q $0.00A $(0.01) -- 3Q $(0.02)A $(0.01) -- 4Q $0.00 $ FY (Dec) $(0.05) $(0.02) $0.05 Company Description Founded by a group of pharmaceutical industry veterans, OPRX develops software solutions for the health care industry to facilitate information exchange between pharmaceutical manufacturers and physicians, thereby improving affordable medication delivery and adherence to patients. Investment Conclusion OPRX's flagship product - SampleMD - provides physicians with electronicallydispensed vouchers and coupons for branded drug samples. Our work at the CBInet EHR/e-RX conference this week suggests that there is ample opportunity for OPRX to intermediate between Pharma brands and prescribers. OPRX's vast embeddedness with several hundred EHRs, which is set to reach roughly 400,000 physicians by 2H:15, gives the company unparalleled reach into the U.S. physician population with respect to electronic distribution of sample coupons and vouchers. With more than 45% upside to our unchanged $2.00 price target, we reiterate our BUY rating. Investment Summary In our view, there is a growing sense of urgency from branded Pharma to engage physicians/prescribers via EHR channels. At this week's CBInet EHR/ e-rx conference in Philadelphia, we detected a notable shift in focus and urgency among Pharma participants toward formulating strategies to engage more heavily in the EHR channel. The physician population is already heavily penetrated with EHR systems (more than 80%) and "time spent" by physicians working inside these systems continues to increase (to roughly 3 hours per day). In our opinion, it is now clear to most that much of Pharma's $15 billion annual promotional budget will eventually have to migrate toward the ascendant work-flow environment of prescribers, at the expense of budgets spent on in-person visits ("detailing") and alternative digital media resources. However, the fragmented nature of the EHR landscape is problematic for digital marketers and Pharma brand teams. With north of 400 disparate EHR systems in place, and with no single vendor with more than 10% market share, this patchwork landscape creates significant difficulty for Pharma to reach prescribers at sufficient scale and consistency via this digital channel. Moreover, the wide range of business models, technology infrastructures (cloud, client-server, etc.), formats, user interfaces, and third-party messaging policies, create tremendous complexity for Pharma marketers with inadequate resources and expertise in this channel. This "engagement complexity" creates significant opportunities for "Middleware" solution providers and aggregators to intermediate between Pharma and EHRs/Prescribers. Our discussions with Pharma marketers suggest that they are actively looking for help in navigating the complexities of this newly emergent, and increasingly important marketing channel. In our view, "middleware" vendors like OPRX are well positioned to benefit from this channel complexity, which we think will persist for some time. For instance, with OPRX already integrated into 350 EHR systems, and set to reach roughly half of the total physician population by 2H:15, the company is well positioned to intermediate between Pharma and prescribers with streamlined file integration and facilitated promotional e-couponing and messaging at high volume. Stock Performance MAR-14 JUL-14 NOV-14 MAR-15 We reiterate our BUY rating and $2.00 price target. OPRX will hold its 4Q:14 earnings conference call on Tuesday, March 31, 2015 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The toll-free dial-in number is 1 (866) and the conference ID is At this time, there are no net changes to our full-year revenue or earnings estimates. However, we make some minor modifications to the quarterly phasing of our revenue estimates in 2015, shifting roughly $400,000 in anticipated revenue from 1H:15 to 2H:15 to adjust for modest seasonal effects. We continue to think that OPRX s value proposition is aligned well with secular industry trends and addresses important gaps in the market. As various factors have conspired to restrict the physical access of pharmaceutical field reps to physicians over the past five years, OPRX has established a broad-based on-line channel for pharmaceutical manufacturers to access, and interact directly within the workflow environments of physicians. Our $2.00 price target continues to be based on 20x our 2016 adjusted-eps estimate of $0.10 (excludes options expense). See page 2 for Valuation and Risks. PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON PAGE(S) 4-6 OF THIS REPORT 250 Montgomery Street, 16th Floor, San Francisco, CA (415) Main (415) Fax (800) Trading - twitter - OTCQX: MERR Member FINRA/SIPC
2 Valuation To value OPRX, we consider the company's large growth opportunity, significant operating leverage and strong margin profile, as well as its early leadership in an under-penetrated niche market. We think OPRX's growth opportunity is closely tied to the secular growth in e-prescriptions (which is expected to double by 2016), as well as the continued adoption of EHR systems. Our $2.00 price target is based on 20x multiple our 2016 adjusted- EPS estimate of $0.10, which excludes non-cash stock-based compensation and assumes an estimated share count of 26 million in Over the past year, OPRX has traded in a range of $ $1.92 and the stock currently trades in the middle of this 52-week range. With more than 45% upside to our price target, we reiterate our BUY rating. Risks that could impede the realization of our price target The company is small with limited resources. Loss of key management personnel could detract from the company's operational capability. Encroachment on OPRX's technology and value proposition by EHR/EMR software channel partners or pharmaceutical customers could pressure margins and impede sales growth. OPRX faces potential litigation risk surrounding its proprietary technology. Customer concentration remains high, with five customers accounting for 63% of year-to-date sales through 3Q:14. Customer concentration may limit OPRX's pricing power. Unfavorable consolidation in the EHR/EMR space (i.e. OPRX channel partners acquired by vendors who do not utilize OPRX' technology) could cause potential disruption for OPRX's distribution capacity. Growing power of distribution partners could diminish OPRX's leverage with respect to revenue share agreements. March 27,
3 Optimizerx Corp., (OPRX) Income Statement ($000s except per share data) 2012 Mar Jun Sep Dec 2013 MarA JunA SepA DecE 2014 Mar Jun Sep Dec Net revenue 1, ,104 1,373 1,811 4,957 1,317 1,454 1,620 1,900 6,292 1,600 1,800 2,100 2,500 8,000 13,000 Revenue share expense , , ,092 1,300 4,160 6,760 Gross profit 1, ,184 3, , ,008 1,200 3,840 6,240 Advertising Professional fees Consulting Salaries, wages and benefits 1, , , ,750 2,000 Rent Depreciation and amortization Stock-based compensation , ,250 1,300 General and administrative (82) Other (197) Total operating expense 2, ,974 1, , ,427 1,055 1,085 1,145 1,195 4,480 5,060 Operating Income - GAAP (455) (224) (97) (142) (653) (53) (395) 80 (1,021) (287) (221) (137) 5 (640) 1,180 Operating Income - Adjusted** (169) (224) (87) ,480 Total other income (expense) Pretax income (loss) (455) (224) (97) (142) (653) (53) (394) 80 (1,020) (282) (216) (132) 15 (615) 1,230 Income tax benefit (expense) Net income (loss) - GAAP (455) (224) (97) (142) (653) (53) (394) 80 (1,020) (282) (216) (132) 15 (615) 1,230 Net income (loss) - Adjusted** (169) (224) (87) ,530 Diluted EPS - GAAP ($0.03) ($0.02) ($0.00) ($0.01) NM*** $0.01 ($0.04) ($0.00) ($0.02) $0.00 ($0.05) ($0.01) ($0.01) ($0.01) $0.00 ($0.02) $0.05 Diluted EPS - Adjusted** ($0.01) ($0.02) ($0.00) $0.01 NM*** $0.04 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00 $0.01 $0.03 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.03 $0.10 Diluted share count 14,211 14,232 33,608 14,228 NM*** 14,713 16,684 23,242 23,362 24,000 21,822 24,500 25,000 25,000 25,500 25,000 26,000 Growth (year over year) Sales growth 79.0% 103.2% 114.2% 203.0% 162.0% 149.2% 96.8% 31.7% 18.0% 4.9% 26.9% 21.5% 23.8% 29.6% 31.6% 27.2% 62.5% Operating expense growth -9% 16% 27% 76% -8% 28% 101% 29% 17% NM 49% -28% 12% -1% 44% 1% 13% % of sales Gross margin 94% 76% 59% 61% 65% 64% 62% 63% 47% 48% 54% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% Operating expense 117.1% 109.7% 67.9% 71.8% 27.9% 60.0% 111.7% 66.5% 71.3% 43.8% 70.4% 65.9% 60.3% 54.5% 47.8% 56.0% 38.9% Operating Income - GAAP -22.9% -33.5% -8.8% -10.3% 37.5% 4.3% -49.6% -3.6% -24.4% 4.2% -16.2% -17.9% -12.3% -6.5% 0.2% -8.0% 9.1% *Source: Company reports and Merriman Capital estimates ** Excludes stock-based compensation and one-time items *** No sharecount available for 4Q:13 ` March 27,
4 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This report has been prepared by Merriman Capital, Inc. (MCI), a wholly owned subsidiary of Merriman Holdings, Inc. MCI is a brokerdealer registered with the SEC and member of FINRA, the NASDAQ Stock Market and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). The address for MCI is 250 Montgomery Street, 16 th Floor, San Francisco, CA Many of the securities discussed in MCI s research reports are emerging growth companies that typically involve a significantly higher degree of risk than the securities of more established companies. These securities may be unsuitable for some investors depending on their specific investment objectives, financial status, risk profile or particular needs. The price target, if any, contained in this report represents the analyst s application of a formula to certain metrics derived from actual and estimated future performance of the company. Analysts may use various formulas tailored to the facts and circumstances surrounding a specific company to arrive at the price target. Various risk factors may impede the company s securities from achieving the analyst s price target, such as an unfavorable macroeconomic environment, a failure of the company to perform as expected, the departure of key personnel or other events or circumstances that cannot be reasonably anticipated at the time the price target is calculated. MCI may change the price target on this company without notice. Additional information on the securities mentioned in this report is available upon request. This report is based on data obtained from sources MCI believes to be reliable, however, MCI does not guarantee its accuracy and does not purport to be complete. Opinion is as of the date of the report unless labeled otherwise and is subject to change without notice. Updates may be provided based on developments and events and as otherwise appropriate. Updates may be restricted based on regulatory requirements or other considerations. Consequently, there should be no assumption that updates will be made. MCI disclaims any warranty of any kind, whether express or implied, as to any matter whatsoever relating to this research report and any analysis, discussion or trade ideas contained herein. This research report is provided on an "as is" basis for use at your own risk, and neither MCI nor its affiliates are liable for any damages or injury resulting from use of this information. This report should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor or as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. Some or all of the securities and financial instruments discussed in this report may be speculative, high risk, and unsuitable or inappropriate for many investors. Neither MCI nor any of its affiliates make any representation as to the suitability or appropriateness of these securities or financial instruments for individual investors. Investors must make their own determination, either alone or in consultation with their own advisors, as to the suitability or appropriateness of such investments based upon factors including their investment objectives, financial position, liquidity needs, tax status, and level of risk tolerance. These securities and financial instruments may be sold to or purchased from customers or others by MCI acting as principal or agent. Securities and financial instruments issued by foreign companies involve certain risks, including differences in accounting, reporting, and registration, as well as foreign currency, economic, and political risks. This report and the securities and financial instruments discussed herein may not be eligible for distribution or sale in all jurisdictions and/or to all types of investors. This report is provided for information purposes only and does not represent an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where such offer would be prohibited. Commentary regarding the future direction of financial markets is illustrative and is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from the opinions expressed herein. The information and rating included in this report represent the long-term view as described more fully in the Key to Investment Ratings included in this report. The analyst may have different views regarding short-term trading strategies with respect to the securities covered by the rating, options on such securities, and/or other securities or financial instruments issued by the company. MCI's sales and/or trading personnel may make recommendations to their customers that are contrary to the recommendations contained in this research report. Such recommendations or investment decisions are based on the particular investment strategies, risk tolerances, and other investment factors of that particular customer. From time to time, MCI, its affiliated entities, and their respective directors, officers, employees, or members of their immediate families may have a long or short position in the securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this report. Our statement regarding research analysts conflicts of interest is available at: Regulation Analyst Certification (.Reg. AC.) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in the subject company of this research report. Research analysts are not directly compensated for specific revenue generated by the firm s investment banking transactions/activities. General Disclosures Merriman Capital, Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from all of the companies in its research universe in the next three months. Investors should assume that Merriman Capital, Inc. is soliciting or will solicit investment banking or other business relationships from the company covered in this report over the next three months. Security prices in this report may either reflect the previous day s closing price or an intraday price, depending on the time of distribution. Designated trademarks and brands are the property of their respective owners. Specific Disclosures OptimizeRx Corporation currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Merriman Capital. Merriman Capital provided non-investment banking securities-related services and non-securities services to OptimizeRx Corporation. March 27,
5 Merriman Capital has coordinated research coverage for OptimizeRx Corporation. The research reflects the independent opinion of the research analyst and Merriman Capital has not represented to OptimizeRx Corporation that the research will recommend an investment in OptimizeRx Corporation s securities or be otherwise favorable to OptimizeRx Corporation. OptimizeRx Corporation currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Merriman Capital. Merriman Capital provided investment banking securities-related services to OptimizeRx Corporation. Merriman Capital has coordinated research coverage for OptimizeRx Corporation. The research reflects the independent opinion of the research analyst and Merriman Capital has not represented to OptimizeRx Corporation that the research will recommend an investment in OptimizeRx Corporation s securities or be otherwise favorable to OptimizeRx Corporation. Merriman Capital received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services from OptimizeRx Corporation in the past 12 months, including, among other things, corporate services and advice on strategic initiatives, financing solutions, capital structure and publishing research. Merriman Capital Inc or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from OptimizeRx Corporation in the next 3 months. Merriman Capital, Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services within the last 12 months from OptimizeRx Corporation. Merriman Capital, Inc. makes a market in OptimizeRx Corporation. Merriman Capital, Inc. or its affiliates beneficially owns 1% or more of an equity security of OptimizeRx Corporation. Key to investment Ratings (expected total share price return inclusive of dividend reinvestment, if applicable). As of February 1, 2013 Merriman Capital LLC added Speculative into its rating system. As of December 23, 2013 Merriman Capital LLC added Unrated into its rating system. : Merriman Capital, Inc. expects the stock price to appreciate 10% or more over the next 12 months. Initiate or increase position. Speculative : Merriman Capital, Inc. believes the stock price could appreciate 15% or more over the next months if anticipated contingencies materialize, however, investors are cautioned that initiating or increasing a position presents a significantly higher degree of risk than our recommendation. Neutral: Merriman Capital, Inc. believes the stock price is fairly valued at current levels. Maintain position or take no action. Sell: Merriman Capital, Inc. expects the stock price to depreciate 10% or more over the next 12 months. Sell or decrease position. Unrated: Merriman Capital, Inc. currently has no opinion regarding the future price of this stock. Investors are cautioned that initiating or increasing a position in such a security presents a significantly high degree of risk and may be unsuitable for certain investors depending on their risk profile. Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Disclosure Rating Count Ratings Distribution Count *Investment Banking % % Spec % 0 0% Neutral % 0 0% Sell % 0 0% Unrated % 0 0% * Percent of companies under research coverage from which Merriman Capital, Inc. received compensation for investment banking services provided in the previous 12 months or expects to receive or intends to seek in the next three months March 27,
6 Merriman Capital, Inc. archives and reviews outgoing and incoming . Such may be produced at the request of regulators. Sender accepts no liability for any errors or omissions arising as a result of transmission. Use by other than intended recipients is prohibited. The information contained herein is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is neither all-inclusive nor guaranteed by Merriman Capital, Inc. No independent verification has been made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Opinions, if any, reflect our judgment at the time the report is first published and are subject to change without notice. Merriman Capital, Inc. does not undertake to advise you of changes in its opinion or information. Member FINRA/SIPC. Copyright All rights reserved. Additional information supporting the statements in this report is available upon request. March 27,
OptimizeRx Corporation (OPRX) Pharma/EHR Conference Revelations Strengthen Our Long-Term Outlook; Reiterate BUY, $3.00 Target
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