Carbon Supply Cost Curves: Evaluating Financial Risk to Coal Capital Expenditures Reid Capalino Senior Energy Analyst

Transcription

1 Carbon Supply Cost Curves: Evaluating Financial Risk to Coal Capital Expenditures Reid Capalino Senior Energy Analyst March 17, 2015 IEEFA Energy Finance Conference

2 who Carbon Tracker is a non-profit financial think tank working to enable a climate-secure global energy market by aligning capital markets actions with climate reality. ETA is an independent research group which analyzes energy markets in the context of a low-carbon energy transition

3 Carbon Supply Cost Curves: Evaluating Financial Risk to Coal Capital Expenditures How much thermal coal investment is at risk globally? Our research on coal consists of a package of detailed analyses of coal supply, demand and financial trends

4 In a 2 C scenario global coal mining investment halves relative to Billion USD Note: Figures for mining only (i.e. exclude transport). 450 Scenario average is for Source: IEA, CTI analysis 2015

5 Thermal coal prices down 50% over last three years US$/t Newcastle FOB price, (US$/t) July 2008 = $192.5/t Jan 2011 = $138.5/t = ~$60/t 0 Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18

6 At current prices, > 50% of thermal coal exporters losing money

7 Several diversified miners selling thermal coal assets Company Mine(s) Acquirer name Deal size ($MM)* Country Rio Tinto Clermont Glencore, Sumitomo $1,105 Australia 2013 Rio Tinto Jacobs Ranch Arch Coal $764 USA 2009 Rio Tinto Vale BHP Billiton BHP Billiton BHP Billiton Antelope, Cordero Rojo, Spring Creek Colombian mines Koornfontein BHP Navajo Coal Khutala, Klipspruit, Middelburg, Wolvekrans Cloud Peak Energy (spin-off) Goldman Sachs subsidiary Optimum Coal Holdings Year $459 USA 2009 $407 Colombia South Africa 2010 Navajo Tribal Council 85 USA 2012 Newco (spin-off) in progress South Africa 2014 *Includes net debt. Source: Thomson One, company reports, CTI/ETA analysis 2014

8 The Context Focus on thermal coal through 2035: We analyze supply and demand for thermal coal through 2035 (longest available timeframe data allowed). Our focus is on the US and Chinese domestic markets as well as the seaborne export market (collectively 81% of current global demand). Demand projections from IEEFA: Tim Buckley from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) provides our demand projections. Supply and cost data from Wood Mac: We source mine-level cost and supply data from Wood Mackenzie s Global Economic Model data base. Focus on breakeven coal prices (BECPs) and associated capex, CO 2 : Combining demand and supply estimates, we calculate the breakeven coal price (BECP) of marginal suppliers in specific markets; we estimate potential production below/above these key levels, and show associated capital expenditures (capex) and CO 2 emissions.

9 Global thermal coal demand at its peak?

10 Projected long-term price of $75/t for seaborne exports World export thermal cash-cost & breakeven price (BECP) level ( )

11 China s thermal coal demand projected to hold steady

12 US domestic cost curve by region IEEFA low-demand scenario avg. demand = 600 Mtpa 450 Scenario avg. demand = 475 Mtpa

13 $112 billion in potential high-cost capex outside China (55% of potential non-china coal capex ) Potential thermal coal capital expenditures, (billion USD)

14 Regional breakdown of potential export capex $139 bn (78% of total) > $75/t breakeven threshold

15 Financial risks to 25-30% of brownfield thermal coal mines Brownfield thermal capex (export and domestic)

16 Financial risks to 60-70% of greenfield thermal coal mines Greenfield thermal capex (export and domestic) out to 2035

17 US domestic coal risks to Appalachian producers Potential US domestic capex over regional BECP threshold through 2025

18 US export coal betting on selling PRB coal to Asia Potential US export capex over $75/tonne BECP through 2025

19 US thermal coal exports 40% from 2012 Million tons Source: EIA, CTI analysis 2015 Exports (lhs) Revenue (rhs) Billion USD

20 Australian coal exports betting on the Galilee $33 bn of potential Australian export capex > $75/tonne BECP through 2025

21 Indonesian potential export capex by company $7.5 bn of potential Indonesian export capex > $75/tonne BECP through 2025

22 Key Takeaways Global thermal coal demand peaks in 2016: Demand for thermal coal (globally and in China) will peak as early as 2016 and then decline through US demand declines at a 2% CAGR. Drivers are efficiency, renewables, and policy. Prices < costs for one-third of potential production: Globally through 2035, onethird of potential production is above key long-term price levels of $53-75/tonne. ~80% of potential export capacity (including in US) looks uneconomic at estimated price levels. Excluding China, $112 billion in financially risky potential capex: Excluding China, high-cost production is associated with potential capex of $112 billion. Nearly half of this relates to development of new (i.e. greenfield ) mines for export markets. Diverse company exposure to potential high-cost capex: Companies exposed to potential high-cost capex include large diversified miners (BHP Billiton), major US producers (CONSOL, Alpha Natural Resources), and Asian industrial conglomerates

23 Arch Peabody Peabody Cloud Peak Appendix

24 GLOBAL THERMAL COAL IN STRUCTURAL DECLINE IEA NPS assumes 18% growth over next 22 years IEEFA forecasts absolute decline of 2% from 2013 levels Global thermal coal will peak by 2016, coinciding with a peak in China s domestic consumption in 2016 Seaborne thermal coal demand will average 850mtpa to 2035, down 15% on current levels Energy efficiency, energy security and renewable energy are key drivers Global thermal coal demand (Mtce) CAGR = 2.9% CAGR = 1.6% CAGR = 1.8% CAGR = 0.6% CAGR = -0.1% CAGR = -0.1% CAGR = -0.3% CAGR = -2.7% New Policies Current Policies 450 IEEFA Year

25 WHERE IEEFA DIFFER FROM THE IEA Lower forecasts for real GDP growth in China and India Long assumed life assumption for renewable generation capacity Greater technology advances driving higher capacity utilisation rates for wind and solar Greater capital cost reductions for onshore wind and solar Taxes at coal s point of use have seen a material step up in 2014 Faster removal of fossil fuel subsidies The US Clean Energy Plan is enacted largely as proposed

26 CHINA PEAKS IN 2016 BECOMING OPPORTUNISTIC EXPORTER Energy security through diversity power production to 2020

27 United States Coal demand down 16% by 2020 on 2013 levels Coal s share of power generation has declined from 49.8% in 2004 to 39.1% in 2013 Energy efficiency to be scaled us significantly Addition of 39GW of wind power takes US installed base to 100GW Addition of 22GW of solar power takes capacity to 35Gw by 2020 Gas revolution continues apace to substitute for coal These drivers combine with mercury and air quality regulations and the US Clean Power Plan to close between 60GW-180GW US increases exports adding to seaborne oversupply

28 EUROPE Europe s coal demand set to fall by 24% on 2013 levels Large Combustion Plant Directive followed by Industrial Emissions Directive are significant, particularly in the UK Germany to move away from reliance on nuclear, thermal and lignite Million tonnes (Mt) Turkey Germany Other Europe Poland UK

29 INDIA does not materialise as the great white hope of the coal export industry A weak financial system and heavy subsidies can not support a low-making power sector based on coal

30 30 Note: Bloomberg Global Coal Index encompasses 32 large coal producers. Source: Bloomberg LP, CTI/ETA analysis 2014 Index Value (rebased to 100) Coal equities down 50% over last five years Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-1 MSCI World Index = 163 MSCI World Energy Index = 149 Bloomberg Global Coal Index = 49

31 $200 billion+ increase in net fixed assets since 2000 = few opportunities for profitable new investment 250 billion USD (2012) China US ROW 31 Note: Data for 83 publicly-listed coal miners with market cap above $200 MM; includes net fixed assets related to metallurgical coal production (estimated as 28% of overall cumulative total). Source: Bloomberg LP, CTI/ETA analysis 2014

32 Combined capex of listed coal miners declined in 2013 but still 3X dividends + buybacks USD billion $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $- 4x 5x Capex 11x 10x 9x 3x Dividends + net share repurchases 32 3x 4x 6x 3x Note: Data for 83 publicly-listed coal miners. Includes capex related to metallurgical coal production (estimated as 25% of 2013 total). Source: Bloomberg LP, CTI/ETA analysis x 3x 3x 3x

33 US coal: upstream concentration may enhance potential investor impact % of total US coal production, 2013 Combined EV of Top 4 = $18.5 billion 46% 54% % of total US oil production, 2013 Combined EV of top 4 = $853 billion 89% 11% Top 4 US coal Others Note: Top 4 US coal producers for 2013 were Peabody Energy, Alpha Natural Resources, Arch Coal, and Cloud Peak Energy. Top 4 US oil producers for 2013 were ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Occidental Petroleum. 33 Top 4 US oil All other Note: Production totals on a volumetric (as opposed to energy-adjusted) basis. Coal includes both thermal and metallurgical coal. Oil includes crude oil, natural gas liquids, and condensate only. Source: Bloomberg LP,company reports, EIA, Rystad Energy CTI/ETA analysis 2014

34 Appendix - Composition of Bloomberg Global Coal Index CHINA SHENHUA ENERGY CO YANZHOU COAL MINING CO CHINA COAL ENERGY CO NIPPON COKE & ENGINEERING CO SHOUGANG FUSHAN RESOURCES GR INNER MONGOLIA YITAI COAL ARCH COAL INC ADARO ENERGY TBK PT ALPHA NATURAL RESOURCES INC PEABODY ENERGY CORP BUMI RESOURCES TBK PT CLOUD PEAK ENERGY INC CONSOL ENERGY INC EXXARO RESOURCES LTD GEO ENERGY RESOURCES LTD HARUM ENERGY TBK PT HARGREAVES SERVICES PLC HEADWATERS INC INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH TBK P JOY GLOBAL INC JASTRZEBSKA SPOLKA WEGLOWA S TAMBANG BATUBARA BUKIT ASAM FREIGHTCAR AMERICA INC SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL CORP SEMIRARA MINING CORP WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD WESTMORELAND COAL CO WALTER ENERGY INC TAMBANG BATUBARA BUKIT ASAM SEMIRARA MINING CORP JIZHONG ENERGY RESOURCES SHANXI XISHAN COAL & ELEC CHINA SHENHUA ENERGY CO YANZHOU COAL MINING CO CHINA COAL ENERGY CO INNER MONGOLIA YITAI COAL GUANGZHOU DEVELOPMENT GRP SHANXI LANHUA SCI-TECH YANZHOU COAL MINING CO YANGQUAN COAL INDUSTRY GRP HENAN DAYOU ENERGY CO LTD CHINA SHENHUA ENERGY CO SHAANXI COAL INDUSTRY CO L PINGDINGSHAN TIANAN COAL SHANXI LU'AN ENVIRONMENTAL CHINA COAL ENERGY CO SDIC XINJI ENERGY CO INNER MONGOLIA YITAI COAL ADARO ENERGY TBK PT BANPU PUBLIC CO LTD PEABODY ENERGY CORP BAYAN RESOURCES GROUP CONSOL ENERGY INC COAL INDIA LTD EXXARO RESOURCES LTD INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH TBK P JASTRZEBSKA SPOLKA WEGLOWA S NEW HOPE CORP LTD SUNCOKE ENERGY INC WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD 34

35 Returns trending toward or below cost of capital = weak value creation Return on Invested Capital 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Balanced Met Thermal Coal global avg. WACC = 9.6% Note: Data for 83 publicly-listed coal miners with market cap above $200 MM; classified as balanced/met/thermal according to revenue split between thermal and metallurgical coal production. Source: Bloomberg LP, CTI/ETA analysis WACC estimate from NYU professor Answath Damodoran using data from S&P Capital IQ.

36 US domestic cost curve

37

38 Emissions related to non-china potential highcost capex = 42 GtCO 2 : Pushing thermal coal demand toward a 2 C trajectory will require stronger policy action.

39 Disclaimer CTI is a non-profit company set-up to produce new thinking on climate risk. CTI publishes its research for the public good in the furtherance of CTIs not for profit objectives. Its research is provided free of charge and CTI does not seek any direct or indirect financial compensation for its research. The organization is funded by a range of European and American foundations. CTI is not an investment adviser, and makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in any particular company or investment fund or other vehicle. A decision to invest in any such investment fund or other entity should not be made in reliance on any of the statements set forth in this publication. CTI has commissioned Energy Transition Advisors (ETA)to carry out key aspects of this research. The research is provided exclusively for CTI to serve its not for profit objectives. ETA is not permitted to otherwise use this research to secure any direct or indirect financial compensation. The information & analysis from ETA contained in this research report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities within the United States or any other jurisdiction. The information is not intended as financial advice. This research report provides general information only. The information and opinions constitute a judgment as at the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by CTI or ETA as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Neither do CTI or ETA warrant that the information is up to date. The underlying analysis in this report, prepared by CTI-ETA, is based on cost and supply data licensed from the Global Economic Model of Wood Mackenzie Limited. Wood Mackenzie is a Global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. They provide objective analysis on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. The analysis presented and the opinions expressed in this report are solely those of CTI-ETA.