Quantifying the risk of the connected and autonomous vehicle

Transcription

1 Quantifying the risk of the connected and autonomous vehicle Connected and autonomous vehicles safe, cyber-secure, private? How confident are you? Automotive and Transport SIG event 1 st October 2015 Andrew Miller Chief Technical Officer

2 Thatcham Research Credentials: Experts in Vehicle Safety, Security and repair Not-for-profit automotive reasarch organisation established for over 45 years Owned by (83% of) UK Motor Insurers Backed by the Association of British Insurers (ABI) and Lloyds Market Association (LMA)

3 Autonomous cars - Science Fiction?

4 Autonomous cars - Science Fact? Google are a new powerful player A mapping and data company with aspirations to develop their data footprint into mobility Announced manufacturing in May 2014

5 Integrated connectivity the next market change It will be essential for every carmaker to provide in-car connectivity but a viable business model is difficult to predict E&Y estimate that approximately 104 million new cars are expected to have some form of connectivity by 2025 US sales of 16 million new cars with embedded telematics by 2025 EU, Japan and BRIC nations regulating and developing propositions for connectivity Integrated telematics are being driven by smartphone use and safety regulations Hands-free capability and integrated sat-nav Comprehensive integrated connectivity The vehicle is an integrated web node part of the internet of things Now

6 Tesla: electrifying innovation right now Equipped with an embedded 3G HSPA+ cellular module: has more in common with a tablet or smart-phone than a conventional car. Virtual instrument cluster and the premium media control unit: The resolution of the display is 1,920 x 1,200, again exceeding the norm for cars, same supplier as Apple. NVIDIA Tegra 3, 1.4-gigahertz quad-core processor similar to smartphone and tablet designs. The main head unit has 5,000 discrete components 1,000 more than the highest-end infotainment unit previously analysed. The virtual instrument cluster and the premium media control unit are estimated to be twice the cost of the highest-end infotainment unit on other vehicles. Over-the-air software updates

7 Opportunity: Vehicle based First Notification of Loss DATA CENTRES 999 EMERGENCY SERVICES INSURER INSTANT FNOL THEFT MANAGEMENT INJURY MANAGEMENT RECOVERY RESERVING THEFT DAMAGES ASSESSMENT PI DAMAGES ASSESSMENT REPAIR TIMES & METHODS DAMAGE ASSESSMENT & PARTS LIST ANALYTICS Theft Management RECOVERY REHABILITATION PI Management SCHEDULING Repair Management KEY-2-KEY EFFICENCIES GAINS CUSTOMER SATISFACTION & RETENTION Operational Management

8 Threat: the cybercrime risk

9 Tesla: electrifying innovation now Tesla Model S Autopilot Autopilot combines a forward looking camera, radar, and 360 degree sonar sensors with real time traffic updates to automatically drive Model S on the open road and in dense stop and go traffic. Changing lanes becomes as simple as a tap of the turn signal. When you arrive at your destination, Model S will both detect a parking spot and automatically park itself. Standard equipment safety features are constantly monitoring stop signs, traffic signals and pedestrians, as well as for unintentional lane changes. Autopilot features are progressively enabled over time with software updates. The current software version is 6.1, adding traffic-aware cruise control, forward collision warning, and camera-enabled automatic high/low beam headlights Over-the-air software updates

10 International Categorisation of Autonomy The Autonomous Car Timeline 0 No Automation 1 Assisted 2 Partial Automation 3 Conditional Automation 4 High Automation 5 Full Automation 0: LDW, ESC (System functionality improvements) 1:ACC, LKA, BLIS, AEB 2: (2014 on) Queue Assistant, Parking Assistance 3: (2017 on) Super-cruise 4: (2019 on) Automated Driving, Valet park 5: (2025) Robot Taxi Feet Off Hands Off Eyes Off? Brain Off? Human driver monitors driving environment Automated driving system monitors driving environment

11 The Autonomous Car Levels of Autonomy and Required Technologies No Assisted Partial Conditional High Full Automation Automation Automation Automation Automation New Car Sales %: Assisted Driving New Car Sales %: Partial Autonomy 2019 Mercedes, Volvo, Tesla Fleet %: Assisted Driving New Car Sales %: High Autonomy Fleet %: Partial Autonomy New Car Sales %: Full Autonomy Fleet %: High Autonomy Fleet %: Full Autonomy 2025: Google autonomous car

12 Premium Distribution Premium Value The Autonomous Car Insurance Model for the Autonomous Car: Premium Value & Personal to Product Liability No Assisted Partial Conditional High Full Automation Automation Automation Automation Automation Premium breakdown: Person: 70%, Car: 30% Premium breakdown: Person: 50%, Car: 50% Halving of insurance premiums Swiss Re, The autonomous car seminar, September 2014 Premium breakdown: Person: 30%, Car: 70% 80% reduction in premium value due to benefits of autonomous vehicles NHTSA, Autonomous Vehicle Seminar, Washington DC, October 2012 Personal Insurance 2019: Mercedes, Volvo, Tesla 2025: Google autonomous car Product Insurance through Bundled insurance

13 UK Insurance Value Estimated Claim Type Damage and PI % Claims Value Parking Low Medium High 2013 ( Million) Car to car rear 2,450 32% 0 1, Junction 1,150 15% Single vehicle 1,150 15% Reversing 700 9% Head on 400 6% Parking 350 4% VRU 350 4% Lane change 250 4% Other % Total 7, % 1,700 2,200 2,100 1,550 Source: Thatcham modelling using member data & UK EDR data

14 City AEB Testing & Real World Effect Testing Real World * * XC60 Golf Inter- Urban * * XC60 Golf Improved Golf high speed performance may explain additional third party effect *All Crashes

15 Thatcham provide initial group indication Grouping Panel (insurer members) final decision Thatcham publish advisory ratings to the industry Grou p 1 Grou p 50 Risk rating Group Rating Primary objectives: To provide insurers with an indication of the relative risk represented by an individual vehicle when first launched onto the UK market. Secondary Objective: To influence the design of vehicles in order to reduce the risk and keep premium increases to a minimum. Fiat 500 Pop Group 5U Mini One Group 12E Barrier Front Impact Assessment composition: Cost of parts from impact Repair times from impact Bumper test AEB (Autonomous Emergency Breaking) test Vehicle Security test Cost of basket of parts New car price (on the road) Performance: 0-60mph & top speed Vehicle kerb weight (kg) Honda Jazz SE 1.2 Group 14E Ford Fiesta Style 1.2 Group 6E

16 Euro NCAP see a 38% overall reduction in realworld, rear-end crashes for vehicles fitted with low speed AEB compared to a sample of equivalent vehicles with no AEB Thatcham Research now a world leading reference in AEB and ADAS system functionality and effectiveness Euro NCAP: 38% AEB Effectiveness

17 AEB & Frontal Impacts with Pedestrians UK DfT reports 398 pedestrian fatalities in % of all road casualties Car-to-Pedestrian CP CP1 Unobscured nearside walking pedestrian CP2 Obscured walking nearside pedestrian CP3 Unobscured farside pedestrian Testing to be introduced into Euro NCAP 2016

18 AEB & Frontal Impacts with Cyclists UK DfT reports long term fall in cyclist deaths, fluctuating in last 6 years 109 cyclist deaths in 2013; 11% of all road casualties Pedal cycle traffic increasing: 13% higher than average crashes 9% 29% 22% deaths 23% 22% 2% AEB group developing testing for most common collisions Testing to be introduced into Euro NCAP 2018

19 Aftermarket technology If the market demand develops for autonomised travel it is possible that suppliers will develop aftermarket products Cruise RP Cruise RP1

20 ADAS Building Blocks Thatcham Influence on Testing Procedures towards Automated Driving Autonomous Driving Automated Driving (Trained) Automated Driving (Destination) Automated Highway Driving Automated City Driving Automated Valet Parking Autonomous Emergency Steering (AES) V2X Overtaking AEB AEB - City AEB - Urban Assist Pedestrian/Cyclist Intersection Assist ACC / Queue Assist Lane Keeping Lane Centering Auto Parallel Parking Navigation Rear-Collision Mitigation Anti-Lock Brakes Stability Control Electric Power Steering Blind Spot Monitoring Pedestrian Detection Parking Aid Traffic Sign Recognition Lane Departure Warning Forward Collision Warning GPS

21 Drive Me Gothenburg Test cars are now able to handle lane following, speed adaption and merging traffic all by themselves Final Drive Me cars will be able to drive the whole test route in highly autonomous mode Complex network of sensors, cloudbased positioning systems and intelligent braking and steering technologies 2017: trials with 100 customers driving First near term Automated Driving

22 Claims trends over the next 10 years? Claim of the Future Active safety Passive safety Materials Powertrain Product liability Frequency Severity Cost Repair of the Future Car of the Future Claim of the Future Driver of the Future Crash of the Future Frequency Personal injury cost Accident damage/cost Skill level under manual driving Interaction with ADAS Personal liability

23 Car-to-Car Rear Re-distribution of Crash Severity Illustrative prediction for AEB effect on Rear End Crashes Cosmetic Moderate Severe Cosmetic Moderate Severe Current crash severity distribution from EDR data 15k delta-v shift left based on City LIDAR performance in AEB tests Claims distribution Shift through AEB avoidance & mitigation effect Severe = Severe 540m = 140m Cosmetic Moderate Severe 2015 update of Thatcham 2007 damage pattern study Source: Kullgren A, Dose-response models and EDR data for assessment of injury risk and effectiveness studies, Proceedings of IRCOBI conference, Bern, Switzerland, Strandroth J, et al. Head-on collisions between passenger cars and heavy goods vehicles: Injury risk functions and benefits of Autonomous Emergency Braking, Proceedings of IRCOBI conference, Delta V = change of energy in a crash (not approach speed). Simple e.g. car travelling at 30km/h hits a stationary car; delta V is approx. 15km/h; complex calculation allows for many factors including vehicle stiffness, rebound etc.

24 AEB Reduces Injuries Future Claims - AEB Effect on Whiplash Illustrative prediction for AEB effect on whiplash claims Whiplash injury reduction is at least equal to the level of avoidance BAU 550,000 whiplash claims annually Total claim cost 2bn Potential savings 2015: 22m 2020: 130m 2025: 357m Avoidance: 1% Avoidance: 7% Avoidance: 18%

25 Addressing Crash Types: What Next? AEB effect on Car-to-Car Rear Pedestrian Lane Change Parking Cyclist Head on Junction Reversing Other 22% Car to Car Rear Single Vehicle But what about other crash types? ADAS systems will address other crashes too What about Automated Driving here by 2020? Damage claim distribution from Insurer member data

26 Quantifying the risk of the connected and autonomous vehicle Connected and autonomous vehicles safe, cyber-secure, private? How confident are you? Automotive and Transport SIG event 1 st October 2015 Andrew Miller Chief Technical Officer