No.2 October Automotive insight for Members. Stop the Crash! AEB prevents low speed crashes: now part of UK group rating

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1 No.2 October 2012 Automotive insight for Members Stop the Crash! AEB prevents low speed crashes: now part of UK group rating

2 AEB Autonomous Emergency Braking AEB is potentially as important a development in vehicle safety as the seatbelt was. The potential benefits of this technology are already being seen even though the technology is in its early stages of development. AEB monitors traffic situations and if an impending collision is imminent, the vehicle systems can intervene.

3 AEB systems cannot counteract the laws of physics, so it can only reduce the impact speed so far dependant on initial distance and relative speeds of the vehicles involved. Many crashes can be avoided, others can be mitigated only. Mitigation is important because reduced collision speed will decrease the injury risk, and of either or both vehicles being declared beyond economical repair. AEB systems should not be confused with Forward Collision Warning (FCW) systems that alert the driver to a potential collision, but do not brake autonomously. FCW systems do pre-pressurise the braking system, but still rely on the driver to take action. The driver may be able steer around the vehicle ahead, but this is certainly not to be relied upon. Neither AEB nor FCW systems are design to replace the driver who remains responsible for the vehicle at all times. At lower speeds the systems will in all likelihood completely avoid the crash, and these are by far the most common accidents; Volvo research indicating that <20mph shunts account for 75% of all crashes. These AEB systems will also have a positive effect on collisions caused by rear-end impacts at higher speeds. These tailgating incidents are a significant source of whiplash claims but can also lead to more serious spinal injuries There is some concern that the potential car buyer may be put off by a car that nannies them, and aggressive drivers may find warning feedback an annoyance. However these systems will only intervene in emergency situations. It should also be remembered that the manufacturers have not yet overcome all the technical limitations such as the system being able to detect and react to a potential collision on a bend or curve in the road. The driver must always remain in control, with the system intervening at the very last moment avoiding issues of the driver adapting to the technology and taking greater risks. There is some risk around fitting more expensive components to exposed areas at the front of vehicles, but we are already seeing evidence of manufacturers thinking about how to improve the mounting and location of RADARs to reduce this risk. The camera & laser elements are typically mounted behind the windscreen so are better protected. Most manufacturers have an AEB system, a FCW system or both, on offer or in development. The availability of these systems, both as an option or standard, is increasing markedly and is not merely restricted to premium models.

4 AEB The technology behind the systems is developing quickly as demand is increasing, and the increasing sophistication will result in ever more effective systems. Already we have seen systems available on relatively low cost cars such as the VW Up!, and VW have confirmed that it will be available on the MK7 Golf which will reach British roads in January Ford has also confirmed Active City Stop will be available on the B-Max and Fiesta next year. So many of Britain s top selling vehicles will have AEB systems over the next few years Thatcham recommends that new car buyers should consider choosing a car fitted with AEB.

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6 AEB AEB Reduces crash in the real world Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) provides a real opportunity for reduction in crashes, a consequential reduction in material damage and personal injury. Thatcham has already shown research from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) showing the substantial reduction in claims these systems bring. IIHS analysed insurance claims data to compare the Volvo XC60, which is fitted as standard with a low speed LIDAR system called City Safety, against other similar 4x4 models and other Volvos. The study compared 22 mid-size 4x4s and showed that the XC60 had lower overall claim frequencies; 27% reduction in third party damage claims, 22% in first party claims, and 51% reduction in personal injury claims. An additional IIHS study also compared the XC60 with other Volvos to eliminate any consumer or driver bias; and again results showed the XC60 had a lower claims rate.

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8 AEB AEB: How it Works AEB systems use three main types of sensor to assess the road ahead: RADAR, LIDAR and camera. The AEB components are sophisticated but there is far more to AEB than adding a sensor to the ESC and braking systems. What you cannot see is the complex software and algorithms that enable the car to make the right decisions. The AEB system needs to be able to form a picture of the road ahead and make a logical assessment of the collision risk. It also needs to be able to identify multiple objects, calculate their distance, direction, and relative speed. Camera systems can recognise light spots, distance and velocity. Despite being relatively low resolution, the frequency of frame rate and the response speed enables good analysis of hazards on the road ahead. The software for the image can identify surroundings and build and compare pictures to function as a motion detector. This enables tracking of multiple approaching objects. Lasers are typically better at distance/range measuring, whereas cameras have the advantage of being less effected by weather. As the software and components develop the abilities and parameters of AEB will extend to enable it to cope with a wider range of potential accident scenarios such as being better able to detect a vehicle ahead on a bend. The systems could even include avoidance of head-on collisions.

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10 Test AEB Procedures The Whiplash Problem It has been widely reported that whiplash claims are a growing problem in the UK. The Association of British Insurers reports that Britain s thriving whiplash industry is now pushing up the cost of the average motor insurance policy by a 20%. Despite a fall in the number of car crashes, whiplash claims have risen by a third in the last four years. Every year 550,000 people claim for whiplash injuries enough to fill the London Olympic Stadium seven times over. Last year these claims cost insurers over 2 billion, adding an extra 90 a year to the average annual motor premium of 440. Nearly 1600 whiplash claims are made every day. Three-quarters of personal injury claims in the UK are for whiplash, Making Britain the whiplash capital of Europe. Insurers pay out over 2 billion a year in claims for whiplash. One in every 140 people claim whiplash a year. AEB could help to avoid crashes, and could help to prevent these costly claims that are such a burden on our society. No crash, no claim!

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12 Test AEB Procedures Development Thatcham has been working to develop test procedures to assess AEB systems. The aim is both to increase awareness and fitment of AEB systems on current cars, and to assess the effectiveness of those systems in preventing or mitigating the most common traffic crashes. The test procedures have been proposed for use by Euro NCAP (European New Car Assessment Program), and RCAR (Research Council for Automobile Repairs). Euro NCAP will include AEB in their assessments from 2014, which will help encourage vehicle manufacturers to fit AEB systems. The procedures have also been adopted by the UK Group Rating Panel so cars fitted with AEB as standard will qualify for testing and subsequent reduction in their insurance group rating from October In 2010 Loughborough University was commissioned by Thatcham and the AEB Group to produce a report which gave real statistical analysis of accident types and prevalent conditions at the time. This study used STATS data including 171,000 accidents, and OTS data that included detail of 500 accidents per year from This has been used as a firm basis to develop and determine the most effective test procedures, and consequently the most effective AEB systems. As the technology continues to develop the testing procedure may well need to be developed further, and so Thatcham will continue to lead development of this important programme. The complete work of the AEB group includes the generation of AEB test procedures for low and high speed car-to-car crashes, as well as car-to-pedestrian frontal crashes. The focus of this publication is on the low speed car-tocar crashes, known as the City test.

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14 AEB City Te The details The test procedure has been designed to represent the most common car-to-car rear accidents based on real world analysis of collisions. The most frequent rear-end crash is where the lead vehicle is stationary, perhaps at a junction or in heavy traffic, and the following car drives in a straight line into the rear. Since this longitudinal crash into a stationary target is commonly found in towns and cities, it is named the CITY test. A realistic car target is used to represent the lead vehicle, and this has characteristics (colour, size, light and radar reflectivity etc) selected to represent a real car, but also is softer and capable of receiving repeated impacts. The test car is instrumented to record its motion, position, braking levels, and any warnings. The test car is controlled by a test driver, but for accuracy and repeatability of the tests, a steering robot and an accelerator robot take over from the driver in order to precisely align the car and accurately control the speed. The speed range is from 0 to 50 km/h approach speeds, starting at 10km/h and with runs increasing in 5km/h speed increments.

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16 AEB City Te Results Thatcham has tested several cars, and generated the City test results for 5 of them. The result is based on a point score for each speed increment. The points available for each speed increment are based on a weighting reflecting the product of crash frequency and the risk of whiplash or a personal injury claim. There are more points available at lower speeds to reflect the frequency of whiplash claims at lower speeds, and the frequency of low speed shunts in the City environment that require repairs. If the car target is completely avoided, the full point score is awarded for that test speed. However if there is a crash, then a proportion of the available points are awarded according to the level of mitigation achieved. If there is no response at all from the AEB system, and the crash is recorded at full approach speed, then zero points are scored. Finally the total points from each speed increment are summed. Approach speed (Kph) Total UK Group Rating points weighting 14 points AEB = Points x (test speed - speed at impact) Mitigation Available Test Speed The warnings provided to a driver are recorded in the test, but in the City test they are not used in the calculation of results because at low speeds there is little or no time for a driver to respond. The warnings are used to calculate results for the other high speed and pedestrian tests that make up other parts of the AEB group procedures.

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18 AEB UK Group Rating Process The ABI Group Rating Panel comprises members of the Association of British Insurers (ABI) and Lloyd s Market Association (LMA). Thatcham carries out the administration of the ABI group rating process for private cars and light commercial vehicles and provides the technical information used by the Group Rating Panel. Over half of all money paid out in motor insurance claims goes on repairing cars. The cost of spare parts and the times taken by repairers are therefore major factors in pricing motor insurance. The factors used to calculate group ratings are: Damage and Parts Costs - The likely damage extent for each car model and the parts cost involved in its repair. Repair Times - Longer repair times mean higher costs and the greater likelihood of a higher group rating. Different paint finishes on modern cars are taken into account. New Car Values - The prices of new cars are taken into account as being a good guide to the cost of replacement and repair. Parts Prices - A standard list of 23 common parts is used to compare one manufacturer s parts costs to another. Performance - Acceleration and top speed are important factors; Insurers know from claims statistics, that high performance cars are associated with more frequent insurance claims. Car Security - Security features fitted as standard equipment by motor manufacturers can help to reduce insurance claims costs.

19 The UK group rating process will incorporate AEB from October 2012 by using the results of the City test. Only systems that are fitted as standard at trim level will be considered. Another restriction is that the AEB system must be passive (i.e. defaults to switching on with each ignition cycle. The total points score achieved in the AEB City test will be translated into a percentage reduction. This percentage reduction is applied to the parts and the damageability score only, not to the overall points total, as AEB is not relevant to the remaining risk factors, such as security. For example, a car which achieves 7.7 points overall in the City test may achieve a reduction of 2 or more groups after an appropriate percentage reduction is applied to the parts and labour score. The group rating panel will continue to review the effect of AEB in the real world into the future, so this system will allow the panel to review and amend the available points weighting and percentage reduction in the future, if necessary. The group ratings are advisory only. Individual insurers will generally use these ratings as a key input to their underwriting process, but will also take account of their own claims experience, and other rationale, to guide their pricing decisions.

20 Automotive insight for Members Colthrop Way, Thatcham Berkshire RG19 4NR t: +44 (0) f: +44 (0) w: Thatcham Automotive Academy Daytona Drive, Thatcham Berkshire RG19 4ZD t: +44 (0) f: +44 (0) w: Thatcham (Thailand) Co., Ltd 128/208, 19th Floor Unit G, Phayathai Plaza Building, Phayathai Road, Thung Phayathai, Ratchathewi, Bangkok Thailand t: +66 (0) w: Member Companies Admiral Insurance Co. Ltd Ageas Insurance LTD Allianz Insurance PLC Amlin UK Ansvar Insurance Co. Aviva PLC Axa Insurance (UK) PLC Brit Insurance Ltd Chaucer Insurance Churchill Insurance Co. Ltd Co-Operative Insurance Society Ltd Covéa Insurance Direct Line Insurance PLC Ecclesiastical Insurance Group Equity Red Star Motor Policies Esure Insurance Ltd Groupama Insurance Co. Ltd Highway Insurance Co. Ltd Insurance Corp of Channel Islands Ltd Jubilee Motor Policies at Lloyd s KGM Underwriting Agencies Ltd LV= Newline Group Novae Insurance Co. Ltd QBE Insurance Co. (UK) Ltd RSA PLC Tesco Underwiriting Ltd The NFU Mutual Insurance Society Ltd UK Insurance Ltd Zurich Insurance Co. THATCHAM IS A NOT-FOR-PROFIT ORGANISATION EXPERTS IN SAFETY, SECURITY AND CRASH REPAIR

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