Dimensions of climate and health risks and opportunities. Rural and agriculture

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1 Dimensions of climate and health risks and opportunities Rural and agriculture 19 th May 2016 Helsinki Madeleine C. Thomson International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York. PAHO/WHO Collaborating Centre on early warning systems for malaria and other climate sensitive diseases

2 There are many drivers of health outcome what makes climate unique? it is measured routinely around the world by the meteorological/climate community It operates at multiple temporal and spatial scales suitable for integration with surveillance data It is partially predictable in some seasons, regions, timescales It drives many aspects of life that impact on health including agriculture, food security, livehihoods, nutrition etc- especially in rural areas.

3 Climate is measured using observations, remote sensing and models

4 Climate varies on multi timescales Day and night rotation of the Earth every 24 hours Seasonal cycle movement of the Earth around the sun Year to year variability - Short term cyclical changes in sea surface temperature (ENSO) Decadal variability long term cyclical changes in sea surface temperature Climate change anthropogenic forcing

5 It is partially predictable in some regions and seasons

6 Predictability across timescales.. Where are we? Good UNDERSTANDING PREDICTABILITY Some Info Frontier Seasonal-to Decadal Climate -Interannual Seasonal Decadal Change Timescale Our understanding of climate variability and our ability to predict it is not constant across timescales. Predicting the Climate of the Coming Decades RSMAS -- January 11, 2010

7 Thanks to Lawrence Haddad, Jess Fanzo, Israel Ukawuba and Aisha Muhammad

8 Climate and Nutrition: Conceptual Links GNR 2015

9 Food environment

10 Work/social environment

11 Health access impacted by seasonally impassable roads Blanford et al. International Journal of Health Geographics 2012, 11:24 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL

12 Living environment

13 Why rainfall seasonality is important for health and well being Seasonality affects every aspect of life in rural areas from food security, infectious disease, access to health facilities, disposable income, births, deaths, marriages etc. According to Robert Chambers seasonal hunger is the father of famine and that any development professional serious about poverty has to be serious about seasonality. Popular in development studies in the 1970s, and 1980 s Seasonality is back. Seasonal hunger may be the primary indicator of population vulnerability to climate change

14 Seasonal and year to year variability

15 Epidemic malaria in Kericho associated with long term trends and the 1997/8 El Nin o Thomson, M.C. Connor, S.J., Zebiak, S.E. Jancloes, M., and Mihretie, A (2011) Africa needs climate data to fight disease. Nature, (24th March 2011)

16 Predicted and actual trends in East African rainfall Left: Projected climate change ) IPCC 4 th Assessment, Right: Observed decline in MAM rainfall ) Funk (2011)

17 Time scale Decomposition Figure 1 Timescale decomposition for annual rainfall (upper panel) and temperature (lower panel), indicating the total explained variance for the long-term trend (first column), decadal (middle column) and inter-annual variability (right column). (Rainfall data: CRUv3.21; Temperature data: GISSLO Munoz et al., 2016.

18 Why is Climate Information so rarely used in support of development interventions? Gap Analysis identified Gaps in: policy practice services data Market atrophy - negligible demand coupled with inadequate supply of climate services

19

20 The Goal of ENACTS (Enhancing National Climate Services) is to transform local, national and regional climate-sensitive development decisions through the widespread uptake of timely, relevant, locally enhanced, quality assured climate information at relevant spatial and temporal scales. Bulletin World Meteorological Society 2011

21 ENACTS Advantage ARC RFE ENACTS Monitoring ENACTS Climate Analysis

22 Enhanced National Climate Services (ENACTS) Ethiopia New products combine locally calibrated satellite rainfall and temperature estimates and all available quality controlled groundbased meteorological station gauge data. 30 years every 10 days every 10km

23

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25 Climate Analysis tool exploring ENACTS data for Oromia

26 ENACTS data in Tanzania Comparison of CMAP and ENACTS rainfall Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipitation (WASP) Index CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) ENACTS

27 Ethiopian analysis What is the impact of El Nino on Rainfall and Temperature?? Historical probability of seasonal monthly averages conditioned on El Niño in Ethiopia a) a) Low rainfall for Jul-Sep and (b) high rainfall Oct-Dec (c) high minimum temperatures Oct-Dec

28 July to September 2015 drought

29

30 Trends JASOND Minimum Temperature anomalies in highland ( ft) Oromia region (see insert) based on ENACTS data

31 What can we do with climate information? I. improve understanding of the mechanisms of climates impact on transmission pathways and health outcomes (basic research) II. estimate populations at risk (risk mapping) III. estimate seasonality of disease and timing of interventions IV. monitor and predict year-to-year variations in incidence (including early warning systems) V. monitor and predict longer term trends (climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments) VI. improve assessment of the impact of interventions (by removing climate as a confounder)

32 CCAFS role in ENACTS and WISER Jim Hansen WISER ENACTS Launch Meeting, 18 February 2016

33 Rwanda ENACTS Launch

34 ERVER/SUSTAINABILITY : 24/7 Server

35 ERVER/SUSTAINABILITY : 24/7 Server BARRIERS TO ENACTS MAPROOM ONLINE AVAILABILITY Power cuts, power shedding; no automatic generator backup Network outages, network overloading Hardware failure; lightning strikes Backup personnel not in place Trained staff leaving the institution No local monitoring of availability

36 Going to scale 24/7 national climate data, products and services designed to serve user needs ENACTS Education and training materials through school, universities (schools of public health) and professional training using national climate knowledge and data Multiple case studies integrating climate information into decision-making for improved health outcomes Nutrition intersection of climate, health, agriculture and disasters. Communication of results with policy makers

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