Brazilian energy efficiency market Using energy efficiency indicators

Transcription

1 V DIÁLOGO POLÍTICO SOBRE EFICIENCIA ENERGÉTICA EN AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE Brazilian energy market Using energy indicators Strategy proposal Ricardo Gorini 28 October, 2014 Lima, Peru

2 ABC for the energy market Planning energy Energy market potential Fostering energy market Energy policies / mechanism portfolio Database Energy performance 2

3 Planning energy Planning energy Fostering energy market Database Energy performance 3

4 Brazil: Primary energy consumption Consumption Primary Consumption: 3,2% a.a GDP: 2,9% a.a. Spain Primary energy consumption in 2011 [million toe] United Kingdom France Germany USA China ,191 2, Mtoe Renewable energy 49% 1990 Nonrenewable energy 51% Renewable energy 41% 2000 Nonrenewable energy 59% Renewable energy 42% 2012 Nonrenewable energy 58% 0

5 Value added Energy Energy structure consumption: by industrial - Industry residential branch sector share in (%) industry (%) Year 2012 Residential 10% 9% 4% 11% 31% 35% Industry Transportation Energy sector Residential Agriculture Others 5

6 Households Household: total Total energy Energy consumption Consumption Total energy consumption from households has increased by 25%. Electricity consumption has almost double in the same period while wood and charcoal consumption has decreased in absolute value. 25,000 [10³ toe] 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, LPG residential consumption Electricity residential consumption Total consumption of households Source: BEN, EPE Gas residential consumption Wood and charcoal residential consumption

7 Households Consumption per dwelling Households: energy consumption per dwelling Despite the energy consumption increase, the energy consumption per dwelling has decreased from 1990 to 2012 by around 25%. Wood, charcoal and GLP have decreased, while electricity has increased significantly. 0.6 [toe/dw] Source: BEN, EPE LPG residential consumption Electricity residential consumption Total consumption of households Gas residential consumption Wood and charcoal residential consumption

8 Households: end use - energy consumption per dwelling Share of energy consumption for cooking has reduce. Electrical appliances increased more than 7%pts % 11.2% % 25.5% 55.9% 32.9% Electrical Appliances and Heating Cooking Water Heating 8

9 Households specific consumption for cooking Households: energy consumption for cooking per dwelling Specific energy consumption for cooking is decreasing steadily. Despite of this, Brazil has a large consumption for cooking, when compared to other countries, so the decrease tendency will probably continue ,5% firewood toe/dw ,6% firewood toe/dw cooking 0.05 Source: EPE France Germany Italy Portugal Spain United Kingdom Source: ODYSSEE European Union Brazil 9

10 Solar Households: water heater solar water (SWH) heating equipment rates Diffusion of SWH during period from 1,3% to almost 4% Increase of installed area from to m²/ inhabitants 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - (0,6% of the electricity demand in households in 2012) 745 GWh (avoided consumption) % 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Installed m²/1.000 inhabitants % household with SWH Source: Brazilian Association on Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Heating (ABRAVA) 10

11 Household: end use electricity consumption per dwelling The growth of the specific electricity consumption per household is mainly linked to larger electrical equipment such as refrigerators, TV, washing machines, air conditioning and others. Lighting and water heating follow a stable trend. [kwh/dw] 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, , Hot water Electrical appliances Cooling Lighting kwh/dw 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 France Germany Italy Portugal Spain United European Kingdom Union Brazil Source: ODYSSEE

12 Household: appliances share of electricity consumption Together, those equipment were responsible for 76% of the total electricity demand in the residential sector in % 11% 5% 19% 2% 5% 15% 12

13 Household: appliances ownership Households are increasing ownership of electrical appliances. Despite this growth, Brazil has a huge pent-up demand, so this increase will probably continue. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Refrigerator Washing machine TV Electric shower Air conditioning Freezer Lamps Source: Associations, EPE

14 Household: decomposition of electricity consumption Increasing number of households has contributed to raise the consumption by GWh ( demographic effect ), or 56% of total consumption variation. Energy savings respond for around 20%. Labeling and minimum standards are essential for improving energy in that case, as increasing sales are expected. GWh Source: EPE Household: Decomposition of electricity consumption variation for cooling, refrigerators and washing machines in Brazil ( ) Consumption variation Demographic effect Equipment ownership effect Energy savings effect 14

15 Energy performance indicators Guiding for the analysis Help defining targets for energy Organization of data Focus on collecting data Building capacity Stablishing a coordination 15

16 Planning energy Planning energy Energy market potential Fostering energy market Data base 16

17 Energy scenarios and the energy market Energy potential and incentives may change according to the energy scenario. Energy prices, GDP growth, population and income, resources availability, financing conditions, etc are examples of premises that affect energy market. A Energy market potential Energy scenarios x B Targets and portfolio C Monitoring D years 17

18 Cost potential curve: Energy market potential Custo de conservação de energia (R$/tep) Todas as MEEs avaliadas Potencial: ktep/ano MEEs custo negativo Potencial: 972 ktep/ano Economia: 447 milhões R$/ano Investimento: 5,2 bilhões R$ (2,704 bi $ adicionais) Premissas (2025) Preço EE: 280 R$/MWh Preço do vapor: 16 R$/GJ Taxa de desconto: 9,4% CCP dinâmica - Papel e Celulose 2025 Rec. do calor residual do vapor liberado por purgadores - papel Uso de recuperadores de calor residual para o forno de cal Instalação de capotas nas máquinas de papel Otimização de parâmetros operacionais da secagem térmica e recuperação de calor residual Recuperação de calor de vapor flash Potencial (tep/ano) Rec. do calor residual do vapor liberado por purgadores - celulose Troca de motores elétricos - papel Troca de motores elétricos - celulose Utilização de softwares de controle baseados em inteligência artificial Utilização de prensas de sapatas na máquina de papel Aumento da concentração de sólidos no licor preto Aumento na taxa de reciclagem de papel Conservação de energia elétrica Conservação de energia térmica Conservação de energia térmica e elétrica

19 Planning energy Planning energy Fostering energy market Energy policies / mechanism portfolio Data base 19

20 Energy efficiencies policies in Brazil PBE - INMETRO CONPET Law PEE ANEEL Law Energy Efficiency Law PNE 2030 Vehicle and building labeling PNEF Ordinance N PROCEL Eletrobras Electricity crisis Electric motors regulation first device regulated by Law Interministerial Ordinance N 553 Interministerial Ordinance N Schedule establishes minimum limits for incandescent lamps in order to banish them from the market

21 Energy Efficiency efficiencies Policies policies in in Brazil - Overview Minimum levels of energy for compact fluorescent lamps Interministerial Ordinance N 132 PNE 2030 Minimum levels of energy for water gas heaters Interministerial Ordinance N 298 Changes Law % of the amount of PEE s must be allocated to low income energy projects Targets programs for air conditioners, water heaters, gas stoves and ovens and refrigerators and freezers Interministerial Ordinance N 323, 324, 325 and Maximum levels of electricity consumption for refrigerators and freezers Interministerial Ordinance N 362 Minimum levels of energy for gas stoves and ovens and air conditioners Interministerial Ordinance N 363 and 364 Building labelling for household sector Interministerial Ordinance N Schedule establishes minimum limits for incandescent lamps in order to ban them from the market Huge impact in the household sector! PNEF Portaria N 594 Targets programs for compact fluorescent lamps Interministerial Ordinance N 1.008

22 ABC for the energy market Planning energy Energy market potential Fostering energy market Energy policies / mechanism portfolio Data base Energy performance 22

23 Conclusions and Recommendations Applying energy indicators for monitoring the performance and the targets for energy (Proyeto BIEE). Building the portfolio of energy policies, mechanisms and market instruments. Cost potential curves defining the energy market. Next steps to foster energy market: Energy Scenarios for Latin America and Caribbean countries. Cost potential curves for Latin America and Caribbean countries. 23

24 Ricardo Gorini Thank you very much! EMPRESA DE PESQUISA ENERGÉTICA - EPE < Av. Rio Branco, 1 11 o andar Zip code: Rio de Janeiro Brasil RJ Tel.: + 55 (21) Fax: + 55 (21)

25