The recent decline in income inequality in Brazil: magnitude, determinants and consequences. Ricardo Paes de Barros (IPEA)

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1 The recent decline in income inequality in Brazil: magnitude, determinants and consequences Ricardo Paes de Barros (IPEA) Cuidad de Guatemala, July 2007

2 1. Magnitude

3 0.610 Evolution of inequality in per capita income: Brazil, (Gini coefficient) Gini coefficient % per year 1,2% ao ano Years Source: Estimations with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) de 1995 a 2005.

4 Four reasons why this decline must be celebrated

5 From the average to the lowest level Evolution of inequality in per capita income: Brazil, (Gini coefficient) Gini coefficient Average of Gini coefficient Minimum Gini coefficient Years Source: Estimations produced with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (Pnad),

6 Few countries have reduced inequality faster than Brazil 10 Distribution of countries according to the rate of inequality (Gini coefficient) reduction 8 Annual variation in Gini coefficient (%) Brazil (77, 1.2) Percentage of countries (%) Source: Data from Programa das Nações Unidas para o Desenvolvimento (PNUD) in World Income Inequality Database 2005 (WIID), Note: We considered 74 countries according to the existence of information on the evolution of inequality.

7 Poverty have declined three times faster than required by the first millennium development goal Annual reducction in extreme poverty: Latin American countries Annual reduction (in percentage points) Mexico Brazil Nicaragua Peru Colombia Chile Guatemala Bolivia Honduras El Salvador Costa Rica Venezuela Source: Estimations produced with Panorama Social da América Latina CEPAL and Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) and 2005.

8 Most of the decline in poverty was due to the reduction in inequality 19.0 Decomposition of the reduction in extreme poverty in Brazil between 2001 and Contribution of growth in per capita income (17%) Percentage of extreme poor in Contribution of inequality reduction (83%) Percentage of extreme poor in Extrema poverty

9 10 Annual growth in per capita income accumulated by the poorest percentiles - Brazil, Annual growth (%) Average income First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth Source: Estimations produced with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilios (Pnad) and 2005.

10 Over the past five years the income of the poor have been growing like the per capita GDP in China Distribution of countries according to annual per capita GDP growth rate during 1990 and 2003 Annual growth in per capita GDP ( ) Haiti Annual growth of Brazilian top 10% Ivory Cost Annual growth of Brazilian bottom 10% China Percentage of countries (%) Source: Estimations produced with Human Development Report (2005) UNDP. Note: We are considering 170 countries according to the existence of information.

11 The need for continuity

12 25000 Distribution of countries according to per capita income, average income of top 20% and average income of bottom 20% Average income of bottom 20% Brazil (70, 24616) Annual per capita income in US$ PPP Per capita income Average income of top 20% Brazil (43, 934) Brazil (64, 7790) Tunisia (64, 2148) Source Human Development Report (2005) UNDP. Note: We considered 124 countries Percentage of countries

13 Cumulative distribution of countries according to inequality level - Gini coefficient Brazil 2005 (56.6, 89.6) Brazil 2001 (59.3, 94.3) Cumulative distribution (%) Source: Estimations produced with the Human Development Report (2005) UNDP. Note: We considered 124 countries Gini coefficient

14 Immediate Determinants

15 Determinants of the recent decline in inequality in Brazil Labor force participation 5% Labor income 45% Non labor income 42% Demographic composition 8%

16 The Life Cycle Bias of Government Transfers in Brazil

17 Contribution of government transfers for the recent decline in income inequality and extreme poverty: Brazil Type of government transfer Gini coefficient Extreme poverty P0 P1 P2 Retirement pensions Assistance for poor old and disable persons (BPC) Bolsa Família

18 Poverty age profile without government transfers: Brazil, 2004 Headcount ratio (%) Average Age Source: Estimations produced with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (Pnad)

19 Poverty age profile: Brazil Headcount ratio (%) Transfers included Average Age Source: Estimations produced with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (Pnad)

20 Poverty age profile including and excluding government transfers: Brazil Headcount ratio (%) Transfers included Average Transfers excluded Age Source: Estimations produced with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (Pnad)

21 Educational Progress

22 Evolution of the impact of schooling on labor income: Brazil, Impact of one extra year of schooling (%) Source: Estimations produced with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (Pnad) 1995 to 2005.

23 Evolution of schooling inequality among workers: Brazil, Schooling inequality (standard deviation) Years Source: Estimations produced with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (Pnad) 1995 to 2005.

24 Contribution to reduction in income inequality between 2001 and 2005 (%) Characteristics Price and quantity Price Quantity Age and schooling Age Schooling Source: Estimations produced with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilios (Pnad) 2001 and 2005.

25 Labor Market Imperfections: Discrimination and Segmentation

26 Evolution of the wage gap between large metropolitan areas and small municipalities Wage gap between large metropolitan areas and median size municipalities Wage gap between large metropolitan areas and small municipalities Wage gap (%) Years Source: Estimations produced with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (Pnad) 1995 to 2005.

27 Evolution of the wage gap between sectors of economic activity Wage gap (%) Years Source: Estimations produced with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (Pnad) 1995 to 2005.

28 Contributions of reductions in labor market discrimination and segmentation for reductions in income inequality Determinants Contribution (%) Inequality generated by labor market 18 Discrimination 4 Segmentation 14 Geographical 11 States 2 Urban-rural 3 Size of the municipality 7 Formal/informal -7 Economic activities 10 Source: Estimations produced with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (Pnad) 2001 and 2005.

29 The very limited effectiveness of the Minimum Wage Policy for reducing poverty and inequality

30 The impact of increasing the minimum wage and benefits from Bolsa Familia on the cumulative income of the poorest percentiles Growth in average income (%) Bolsa Familia Minimum wage 5 Per capita income Percentage of population Source: Estimations produced with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (Pnad) 2005.

31 The impact of increasing the minimum wage and the benefits from Bolsa Familia on average income of the percentiles accumulated by the center of the distribution Minimum wage Growth in average income (%) Per capita income 49 Bolsa Familia Percentage of population Source: Estimations produced with Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (Pnad) 2005.

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