Re-thinking online TV

Transcription

1 Re-thinking online TV Guy Bisson, Research Director, Ampere Analysis September

2 36% There of those are homes 26m SVoD think subscriptions they won t watch in the linear TV Euro in Big five year s 5 markets time 2

3 SVoD-only is now a significant segment % of homes SVoD only homes (average) 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% Average % Average % 2% 0% Poland France Netherlands Spain Italy Germany UK Sweden Denmark USA SVoD only homes 2015 SVoD only homes 2016 Source: Ampere Consumer, SVoD only includes SVoD only and SVoD with free TV 3

4 There are clear indications that online and linear audiences are different Baby Boomers Younger Millennials Linear Broadcast On-demand/ SVoD igen/genz Gen X Older Millennials 4

5 SVoD homes: What do they look like? 50% More likely to be Millennials 14% More likely to take a pay TV service 50% More likely to take premium TV channels 50% More likely to have changed pay TV provider - x 30% More likely to binge view 46% Less likely to watch linear TV - x x Source: Ampere Analysis. Based on 10,500 consumer survey across 10 markets. Q % More likely to have young kids 5

6 SVoD and paid VoD key to viewing changes in SVoD homes SVoD homes watch more TV But much less linear % +20% 90% 80% +10% 70% 60% Non-linear 1 50% 40% 30% 20% 0.8 Average home Pay TV home SVoD home Viewing _me pegged to average 10% 0% Average Pay TV home SVoD home Linear TV Pay VoD DVR Online 6

7 Pay TV & new media products are segmenting Older On-demand led Sky Original series cater to middle ground Higher-income tradi_onal broadcast push through Sky Q to protect high-end broadcast viewers Lower income Young millennial and teenageappeal via Whistle Sports, Soccer AM, Snapchat, Facebook Lower income, younger family and transient household appeal through Now TV and kids pass Younger Linear-led Higher income 7

8 With new financial profiles & new competition Older High product margin Lower income Higher income Low product margin Younger 8

9 Apps mean discovery and prominence is also changing 50% 45% 40% 35% In Europe, YouTube remains #1 USA: Viewed in past month % homes 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Neflix YouTube Amazon Instant Video Hulu Facebook HBO Now HBO GO Fox Now Watch ABC CBS Online Video 9

10 Incumbents risk losing out In new Neflix markets incumbent s apps s_ll rule In established Neflix markets, the picture is mixed 600% 80% 500% 60% 400% 40% 300% 20% 200% 0% 100% -20% 0% Atres Player (ES) RTVE (ES) TeleCinco (ES) Raitv (IT) Video Mediaset (IT) % more (less) likely to have than Neflix (18-34 yo) TIM Vision (IT) -40% -60% Germany % more (less) likely to have than Neflix (18-34 yo) 10

11 Sophisticated viewers building their own bundles UK Neflix subscribers: More likely to have UK Neflix customers (255/1002 sample survey) 1.8x 1.4x 1.5x 2.5x US millennials hit two SVoD services/home USA UK Sweden Spain Poland Netherlands Italy Germany France Denmark SVoD services per home (Millennials) SVoD services per home (average) Chart shows # SVoD services/svod home 11

12 DTC also fits perfectly in the next-generation bundle Viewer/adver_sing spend shil to online Operators push back on channel carriage DTC/SVoD launch to recoup margin Content owners margins squeezed 12

13 SVoD services like Netflix are evolving their channel strategy too Neflix: content offer Neflix UK: hours of original content # _tles % Originals (hrs) December 2015 June 2016 >5 years 3 to 5 years 2 to 3 years 1 to 2 years 6 months to 1 year 3 to 6 months <3 months Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 UK example to illustrate global trend 13

14 Final thoughts 14

15 Thank you 15