EUROPEAN INVESTMENT MARKET

Transcription

1 EUROPEAN INVESTMENT MARKET July 2014

2 Economic trends Major markets + Key transactions Outlook 2 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

3 Economic trends Major markets + Key transactions Outlook 3 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

4 SENTIMENT HAS IMPROVED Economic sentiment, vs long-run average UK Germany EU Average Spain Italy France April 14 April 13 (20) (15) (10) (5) Source: Eurostat 4 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

5 2004 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 REAL EUROPEAN GDP INDEXED TO 2004 Q = 100 Index Eurozone France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom Source: CBRE Research, Oxford Economics 5 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

6 VARIED ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Average annual GDP growth ICELAND 3.5% and above 2.6% to 3.4% NORWAY FINLAND SWEDEN 1.5% to 2.5% ESTONIA 0.5% to 1.4% DENMARK LATVIA RUSSIA LITHUANIA IRELAND UK NETHERLANDS POLAND BELARUS GERMANY BELGIUM LUXEMBOURG CZECH REPUBLIC SLOVAKIA UKRAINE FRANCE SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA SLOVENIA CROATIA HUNGARY MOLDOVA ROMANIA PORTUGAL SPAIN ITALY BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA SERBIA BULGARIA MONTENEGRO MACEDONIA ALBANIA GREECE TURKEY 6 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

7 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 EVM EUROPEAN VALUE INDICES Office (regions) Q = France Germany UK Italy Spain 45 Source: CBRE Valuation 7 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

8 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q INCREASING INVESTMENT HAS PUSHED DOWN YIELDS Quarterly yield shift in the EU-15 countries Q-on-Q Change (Bps) Office 10 0 (10) (20) (30) Source: CBRE Research 8 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

9 SPREAD OF PRIME AND SECONDARY YIELDS All Property Percentage Points Spread Prime Secondary Source: CBRE Valuation 9 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

10 North America billion billion EUROPEAN CRE in billion EUROPEAN CRE in billion Middle East billion billion Asia billion billion Australia billion billion Source: CBRE Research 10 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

11 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT IN EUROPE Billion Source: CBRE Research * Preliminary results H1 2014* 11 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

12 London New York Paris (IDF) Tokyo Hong Kong Singapore Sydney Shanghai Houston Chicago Munich LONDON A MAJOR TARGET Billion Domestic Intra-regional Cross-regional 5 0 Source: CBRE Research Note: * All commercial real estate and hotels 12 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

13 INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT IN EUROPE % 24% USA Asia Middle East Canada 7% Australia 11% 15% Other Global Germany UK 1% 1% 4% 15% Other European Source: CBRE Research 13 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

14 GLOBAL INVESTORS Destination hierarchy TRADITIONAL PRIME London Paris Major German cities UK Regions Major cities Rest of Europe Spain Portugal Italy HIGHER GROWTH POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES 14 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

15 Economic trends Major markets + Key transactions Outlook 15 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

16 UK

17 UNITED KINGDOM Market highlights Country overview Population GDP output (2013) 64.2 million 1.5 trillion Investment market CRE investment billion (Central London: 50%) Prime yield 3.75% - 4.5% Prime rent p/sq m 1,130 Market structure Typical lease length 10 years VAT 21% Transfer tax 4% stamp duty 17 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

18 THE LLOYDS BUILDING 1 Lime Street, EC3, London Purchaser: Ping An Vendor: CLI Group Q ,000 sq ft 260m 18 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

19 CENTRIUM 61 Aldwych, WC2, London Purchaser: China Overseas Holdings Vendor: GLL Q ,712 sq ft 170m 19 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

20 HANOVER SQUARE ESTATE London West End, W1 Purchaser: HKMA Vendor: Great Portland Estate Q ,000 sq ft 101m 20 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

21 10 UPPER BANK STREET Canary Wharf, London Vendor: Clifford Chance Purchaser: China Life Insurance Q ,000 sq m 795m 21 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

22 FRANCE

23 FRANCE Market highlights Country overview Population GDP output (2013) 65.8 million 2.1 trillion Investment market CRE investment billion (Paris: 68%) Prime yield 4% - 4.5% Prime rent p/sq m 800 Market structure Typical lease length 3/6/9 years VAT 20% Transfer tax 5.9% stamp duty 23 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

24 TOUR ADRIA Paris, La Defense Purchaser: Primonial Vendor: Testa Q ,000 sq m 450m 24 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

25 ROSSINI Paris, 9ème Purchaser: Aviva Vendor: Innovalis Q ,270 sq m In excess of 90m 25 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

26 GERMANY

27 GERMANY Market highlights Country overview Population GDP output (2013) 81.8 million 2.5 trillion Investment market CRE investment billion Prime yield 4.5% - 5% Prime rent p/sq m 456 Market structure Typical lease length 5+5 years VAT 19% Transfer tax 3.5% - 6.5% 27 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

28 Q1 07 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 14 GERMANY PRIME RENTS Office per sq m pa Frankfurt Munich Hamburg Berlin Source: CBRE Research 28 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

29 Q1 07 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 14 GERMANY PRIME YIELDS Office % Berlin Frankfurt Hamburg Munich Source: CBRE Research 29 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

30 TOWER Frankfurt am Main, Germany Purchaser: PwC Pension Fund Vendor: CA Immo Deutschland GmbH Q ,201 sq m Asset value in excess of 500m 30 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

31 SIEMENS FORUM Munich, Germany Purchaser: NPS with Hines Vendor: Siemens RE Q ,000 sq m 151m 31 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

32 LINDENCORSO Berlin, Germany Purchaser: Generali Vendor: Lindencorso Grundstucks Q ,700 sq m 150m 32 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

33 SPAIN

34 SPAIN Market highlights Country overview Population GDP output (2013) 60.7 million 1 trillion Investment market CRE investment billion (Madrid 35%, Barcelona 21%) Prime yield 5.75% Prime rent p/sq m 294 Market structure Typical lease length 3-5 years VAT 21% Transfer tax 7% (+1.5% stamp duty) 34 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

35 CASTELLANA 200 Madrid, Spain Purchaser: PSP Vendor: Santander, BBVA, Sabadell and Sareb Under offer Mixed-use office: 37,750 sq m 140m 35 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

36 ITALY

37 ITALY Market highlights Country overview Population GDP output 46.4 million 1.4 trillion Investment market CRE investment billion (Milan 31%, Rome 21%) Prime yield 6.00% Prime rent p/sq m 480 Market structure Typical lease length years VAT 21% Transfer tax 4% for non-italian investors 37 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

38 PORTA NUOVA Milan, Italy Purchaser: Qatar Holdings Vendor: Hines Italia Sgr Q ,000 sq m 600m 38 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

39 SANTA MARGHERITA Milan, Italy Purchaser: Qatar - Sovereign Wealth Fund Vendor: Tishman Speyer Q ,987 sq ft 105m 39 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

40 Economic trends Major markets + Key transactions Outlook 40 CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

41 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS Outlook Percent Italy UK Germany CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

42 PRIME OFFICE YIELDS Outlook Percent Milan Munich London West End CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

43 PRIME OFFICES TOTAL RETURNS 5 years to 2019 (local currency*) Percent per annum Dublin Madrid Barcelona Rome Milan Paris (La Defense) London (West End) London (City) Munich Frankfurt Berlin Paris CBRE EUROPEAN VALUATION MONITOR

44