China Light Vehicle Outlook

Transcription

1 Presentation China Light Vehicle Outlook ihs.com University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute Inside China Conference November 12, 2014 Charles Chesbrough Senior Principal Economist IHS Automotive - Detroit Charles.Chesbrough@ihs.com

2 Introduction Charles Chesbrough Senior Principal Economist IHS Automotive Charles joined IHS in 2006, and is responsible for developing and integrating statistical models and economic scenarios into IHS worldwide global automotive forecasts. Charles also presents IHS forecasts and research to organizations, clients and media, and is often invited as a speaker or panelist at various professional seminars and international industry events. Prior to joining IHS, Charles was a senior consultant in Ford Motor Company's North American marketing strategy group. Charles has also worked for two technology start-up companies, and he began his career as a floor trader at the Chicago Board of Trade. Charles also is an expert in market research, data mining and econometric analysis through many years as a consultant to Fortune 500 companies. Charles earned a bachelor s degree in economics from Michigan States University, and a master s degree in economics from the University of Illinois at Chicago. He was also a student in Michigan State University s economics PhD program. Charles has won numerous economic forecasting accuracy awards, and serves on Oakland University s Expert Economist Panel. He is also board member and former President of the Detroit Association for Business Economics, and is also a member of the National Association for Business Economics. 2

3 IHS Automotive Analysts based all over the world and provide global industry coverage and perspective * * * * * * *** * * * * * * * * * IHS products utilized for this presentation: Automotive forecasting Energy forecasting Economic forecasting 3

4 China Light Vehicle Outlook Agenda Light Vehicle Forecast Economic and Market Development D Threats to the Forecast 4

5 In June 2014 Ford opened 88 new car dealerships in China - in one day. With primary focus on less competitive Tier 4 cities! 5

6 Audi China plans to open one dealership per week all the way through to China NAQS (National Air Quality Standards): In % of major Chinese cities subject to NAQS failed to meet their goal. Incoming investment into China for local vehicle manufacturing is estimated to be around 35.7 billion USD in the next 5 years. The average price of a new 4S dealership in China lies between 3 and 5 million USD. 6

7 LV Sales SAAR, in millions World Light Vehicle Selling Rates China providing most of global sales growth World SAAR World Without China SAAR 45 Source: IHS Automotive Analysis, X12 Seasonal Adjustment 7

8 Jan'07 Jan'08 Jan'09 Jan'10 Jan'11 Jan'12 Jan'13 Jan'14 LV Sales SAAR, Indexed 2007=1 Region Light Vehicle Selling Rates China remains on different path than rest of world China Lehman Collapse ASEAN Sales Level S America EE India J/K NA 0.8 WE 0.6 CE 0.4 Source: IHS Automotive Analysis, X12 Seasonal Adjustment

9 Annual sales, in millions World Light Vehicle Sales Forecast Outlook optimistic from US/Euro recovery and China market growth Total Sales : 577 Million Vehicles Total Sales : 767 Million Vehicles Source: IHS Automotive Sales Forecasts 9

10 Annual sales, in millions Light Vehicle Sales Forecast Automotive world changing quickly Mature Markets China Others Change : MM down 5% China up 1400% Others up 200% 0 Source: IHS Automotive, Mature Markets = US, Canada, Japan, S Korea, Australia, NZ, W Europe 10

11 Sales (in millions) China Light Vehicle Sales Forecast Market to reach 30 million by end of decade 35 70% 30 60% % % 30% Annual change % 20% % 8.9% 7.1% 0% Source: IHS Automotive 11

12 China Light Vehicle Outlook Agenda Light Vehicle Forecast Economic and Market Development Threats to the Forecast 12

13 Vehicles In Use Per 1000 People Light Vehicle Penetration Scatterplot Reveals Strong Economic - Vehicle Need Relationship Russia Brazil Thailand China Slovenia Poland Czech Rep Hungary Slovakia Mexico Chile Turkey S Korea Italy Spain Australia Canada France Japan $0 Indonesia $10 $20 $30 $40 India GDP Per Capita (thousand US$) UK Germany US Sweden Development Path economic success creates millions of new consumers, and they want cars! Source: IHS Automotive, CY

14 United States China Japan Germany France India Brazil Russia World: Human Population Total Population (millions) 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Source: IHS Consumer Markets 14

15 United States China Japan Germany France India Brazil Russia World: Economic Development Real GDP Per Capita (2010 US$) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Source: CY , IHS Consumer Markets 15

16 United States China Japan Germany France India Brazil Russia World: Vehicle Penetration Rates Vehicles in Operation Per 1000 People Source: CY , IHS Automotive 16

17 United States China Japan Germany France India Brazil Russia World: Light Vehicle Sales Forecast Annual Volume 32,000,000 28,000,000 24,000,000 20,000,000 16,000,000 12,000,000 8,000,000 4,000,000 0 Source: CY , IHS Automotive 17

18 United States China Japan Germany France India Brazil Russia World: Light Vehicle Fleet Total Car + LCV in Operation (millions) Source: CY , IHS Automotive 18

19 United States China Japan Germany France India Brazil Russia World: Product Availability Nameplates In Markets Source: CY , IHS Automotive 19

20 United States China Japan Germany France India Brazil Russia More Fragmented Less Fragmented World: Market Concentration HHI Scores Source: CY , IHS Automotive 20

21 Car MPV PUP SPORT SUV Van China Vehicle Segments Cars dominate but SUV share expected to increase significantly Share of Market 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Average Product Age (years since launch) Car PUP SUV MPV SPORT Van Source: IHS Automotive 21

22 China Light Vehicle Production Forecast C and D sized vehicles will continue to dominate market Forecast by Platform Size 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Production Purpose 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% F+HVAN E D C B A Domestic Exported Source: IHS Automotive 22

23 FAW-VW FORD Hyundai NISSAN FAW TOYOTA CHEVROLET BUICK CITROEN PEUGEOT DF HONDA Number of Dealerships China Dealership Expansion OEMs expanding distribution dramatically Dec-13 Jun Dec-13 Jun AUDI BMW MERCEDES Dec-13 Jun BYD CHERY Source: IHS Automotive 23

24 Hyundai VW Chery Toyota Audi BMW Share of Purchases Financed Share of Purchases Financed China Automotive Financing Still primarily a cash market but major OEMs expanding significantly 18% 16% 14% 40% 35% 30% % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 25% 20% 15% 10% 10% 17% 19% 20% 8% 24% 24% 17% 12% 23% 2% 5% 3% 0% 0% Source: IHS Automotive 24

25 Share of LV Sales Premium Sales in millions China Premium Vehicle Market As market matures, higher priced vehicle share and volume continues to grow 12.0% % % 10.5% Sept Forecast Jan Forecast US China % % 0.0 Source: IHS Automotive 25

26 China Light Vehicle Outlook Agenda Light Vehicle Forecast Economic and Market Development Threats to the Forecast 26

27 Vehicle Density Vehicle Penetration Path Some signals suggest a paradigm shift occurring Rural Path City of Today Peak Car? Mature Market Track City of Tomorrow? Weak Car? Emerging Market Track Economic Development Source: IHS Automotive 27

28 New Passenger Regs Per 1000 People Province New Registrations Density Stage of market development varies greatly 25 Zhejiang Beijing Rising Tigers Hebei Ningxia Shanxi Shaanxi Qinghai Nation XinjiangChongqing Henan Jilin Yunnan Sichuan Anhui Hainan Guizhou Hubei Gansu Hunan Jiangxi Heilongjiang Guangxi Tibet Next Wave Shandong Guangdong Liaoning Fujian Jiangsu Inner Mongolia GDP Per Capita US$ Established Markets Shanghai Tianjin Late Bloomers 7 $3,000 $5,000 $7,000 $9,000 $11,000 $13,000 $15,000 $17,000 Source: IHS Automotive, based on 2013 passenger vehicle registrations data and economic forecasts 28

29 Shandong Jiangsu Guangdong Zhejiang Hebei Henan Sichuan Liaoning Beijing Hunan Anhui Hubei Shanxi Shaanxi Fujian Yunnan InnerMongolia Tianjin Jiangxi Shanghai Chongqing Guangxi Heilongjiang Jilin Guizhou Xinjiang Gansu Ningxia Hainan Qinghai Tibet PV registrations in 2013 (millions) Province Passenger Vehicle Registrations City restrictions and legislation changes impacting sales and development City restrictions already in place City restrictions expected No restrictions indicated yet Source: IHS Automotive, China Province Forecast 29

30 PVs in millions Province Passenger Vehicles in Operation Recent sales success differences will impact future vehicle fleet opportunities Passenger vehicle fleet now at 100m will surpass 300m by 2025 Southwest China South China Plateau Northwest China Northeast China North China Middle China East China 0 Source: IHS Automotive, China Province Forecast, Personal Vehicle Parc (Including minibus) 30

31 South Korea Indonesia India Japan Malaysia Thailand Germany Mexico France Taiwan Shanghai Hong Kong Singapore Italy Brazil Spain Turkey Yunnan Beijing Belgium United States Russia United Kingdom Guizhou Chile Jilin Uruguay Zhejiang Guangxi Jiangsu Shaanxi Shanxi Hainan Guangdong Henan Jiangxi Heilongjiang Ukraine Sichuan Anhui InnerMongolia Fujian Tianjin Hunan China Total Hebei Qinghai Hubei Shandong Xinjiang Liaoning Ningxia Chongqing Tibet Gansu More Fragmented More Concentrated World Passenger Vehicle HHI Scores Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) China s highly fragmented market suggests fierce competition with price constantly under threat and weak profit margins. Some provinces less fragmented, possibly more profitable than others. Shanghai has the highest HHI score top 2 companies hold 52% of market share Note: HHI market shares based on 2013 passenger vehicle data Sales Parent Group 31