Systems Engineering and Analysis

Transcription

1 Systems Engineering and Analysis Fifth Edition Benjamin S. Blanchard Professor Emeritus of Engineering and Industrial and Systems Engineering Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Wolter J. Fabrycky Lawrence Professor Emeritus of Industrial and Systems Engineering Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and Chairman, Academic Applications International Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River Amsterdam Cape Town Dubai London Madrid Milan Munich Paris Montreal Toronto Delhi Mexico City Sao Paulo Sydney Hong Kong Seoul Singapore Taipei Tokyo

2 Contents Preface Part I Introduction to Systems Chapter 1 Systems Science and Engineering 1.1 System Definitions and Elements 1.2 A Classification of Systems 1.3 Science and Systems Science 1.4 Technology and Technical Systems 1.5 Transition to the Systems Age 1.6 Systems Engineering 1.7 Summary and Extensions Questions and Problems Chapter 2 Bringing Systems Into Being 2.1 The Engineered System 2.2 System Life-Cycle Engineering 2.3 The Systems Engineering Process 2.4 System Design Considerations 2.5 System Synthesis, Analysis, and Evaluation 2.6 Implementing Systems Engineering 2.7 Summary and Extensions Questions and Problems Part II The System Design Process Chapter 3 Conceptual System Design 3.1 Problem Definition and Need Identification 3.2 Advanced System Planning and Architecting 3.3 System Design and Feasibility Analysis 3.4 System Operational Requirements 3.5 System Maintenance and Support 3.6 Technical Performance Measures 3.7 Functional Analysis and Allocation

3 6 Contents 3.8 System Trade-off Analyses System Specification Conceptual Design Review Summary and Extensions 111 Questions and Problems 112 Chapter 4 Preliminary System Design Preliminary Design Requirements Development, Product, Process, and Material Specifications Functional Analysis and Allocation (Subsystem) Preliminary Design Criteria Design Engineering Activities Engineering Design Tools and Technologies Trade-off Studies and Design Definition Design Review, Evaluation, and Feedback Summary and Extensions 139 Questions and Problems 140 Chapter 5 Detail Design and Development Detail Design Requirements The Evolution of Detail Design Integrating System Elements and Activities Design Tools and Aids Design Data, Information, and Integration Development of Engineering Models System Prototype Development Design Review, Evaluation, and Feedback Incorporating Design Changes Summary and Extensions 161 Questions and Problems 162 Chapter 6 System Test, Evaluation, and Validation The Process of System Test, Evaluation, and Validation Categories of System Test and Evaluation Planning for System Test and Evaluation Preparation for System Test and Evaluation System Test, Data Collection, Reporting, and Feedback Summary and Extensions 180 Questions and Problems 181 Part III Systems Analysis and Design Evaluation 183 Chapter 7 Alternatives and Models in Decision Making Alternatives in Decision Making Models in Decision Making Decision Evaluation Theory Decisions Involving Multiple Criteria 195

4 Contents The Decision Evaluation Display Decisions Under Risk and Uncertainty Summary and Extensions 211 Questions and Problems 213 Chapter 8 Models For Economic Evaluation Interest and Interest Formulas Determining Economic Equivalence Evaluating a Single Alternative Evaluating Multiple Alternatives Evaluation Involving Multiple Criteria Multiple Alternatives with Multiple Futures Break-Even Economic Evaluations Break-Even Evaluation Under Risk Summary and Extensions 248 Questions and Problems 248 Chapter 9 Optimization in Design and Operations Classical Optimization Theory Unconstrained Classical Optimization Constrained Classical Optimization Optimization Involving Multiple Criteria Constrained Optimization by Linear Programming Summary and Extensions 297 Questions and Problems 298 Chapter 10 Queuing Theory and Analysis The Queuing System Monte Carlo Analysis of Queuing Single-Channel Queuing Models Multiple-Channel Queuing Models Queuing with Nonexponential Service Finite Population Queuing Models Summary and Extensions 332 Questions and Problems 333 Chapter 11 Control Concepts and Methods Some Basic Control Concepts Statistical Process Control Statistical Control Charts Optimum Policy Control Project Control with CPM and PERT Total Quality Control Summary and Extensions 367 Questions and Problems 368

5 8 Contents Part IV Design for Operational Feasibility 375 Chapter 12 Design for Reliability Definition and Explanation of Reliability Measures of Reliability Reliability in the System Life Cycle Reliability Analysis Methods Reliability Test and Evaluation Summary and Extensions 418 Questions and Problems 418 Chapter 13 Design for Maintainability Definition and Explanation of Maintainability Measures of Maintainability Availability and Effectiveness Measures Maintainability in the System Life Cycle Maintainability Analysis Methods Maintainability Demonstration Summary and Extensions 477 Questions and Problems 478 Chapter 14 Design For Usability (Human Factors) Definition and Explanation of Human Factors The Measures in Human Factors Human Factors in the System Life Cycle Human Factors Analysis Methods Personnel and Training Requirements Personnel Test and Evaluation Summary and Extensions 508 Questions and Problems 509 Chapter 15 Design for Logistics and Supportability Definition and Explanation of Logistics and Supportability Logistics in the System-of-Systems Environment The Elements of Logistics and System Support The Measures of Logistics and Supportability Logistics and Maintenance Support in the System Life Cycle Supportability Analysis Supportability Test and Evaluation Summary and Extensions 551 Questions and Problems 552 Chapter 16 Design for Producibility, Disposability, and Sustainability Introducing Producibility, Disposability, and Sustainability Producibility, Disposability, and Sustainability in the Life Cycle Measures of Producibility and Production Progress Design for Producibility 566

6 Contents Design for Disposability Design for Sustainability Life-Cycle Value-Cost Diagram Summary and Extensions 576 Questions and Problems 578 Chapter 17 Design for Affordability (Life-cycle Costing) Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing Cost Considerations Over the System Life Cycle A Generic Life-Cycle Costing Process Life-Cycle Costing by Money Flow Modeling Life-Cycle Costing by Economic Optimization Applications and Benefits of Life-Cycle Costing Summary and Extensions 644 Questions and Problems 645 Part V Systems Engineering Management 653 Chapter 18 Systems Engineering Planning and Organization Systems Engineering Program Planning Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) Organization for Systems Engineering Summary and Extensions 685 Questions and Problems 686 Chapter 19 Program Management, Control, and Evaluation Organizational Goals and Objectives Outsourcing and the Identification of Suppliers Program Leadership and Direction Program Evaluation and Feedback Risk Management Summary and Extensions 706 Questions and Problems 708 Part VI Appendices 711 Appendix A Functional Analysis 713 A.l Functional Flow Block Diagrams 713 A.2 Some Examples of Application 715 Appendix В Design and Management Checklists 723 B.l Design Review Checklist 723 B.2 Management Review Checklist 725 Appendix С Probability Theory and Analysis 729 C.l Probability Concepts and Theory 729 C.2 Probability Distribution Models 732 C.3 Monte Carlo Analysis 740

7 10 Contents Appendix D Probability and Statistical Tables Table D.l Random Rectangular Variates Table D.2 Cumulative Poisson Probabilities Table D.3 Cumulative Normal Probabilities Appendix E Interest Factor Tables Table E.l 6% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.2 7% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.3 8% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.4 9% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.5 10% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.6 12% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.7 15% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Table E.8 20% Interest Factors for Annual Compounding Appendix F Finite Queuing Tables Table F.l Finite Queuing Factors Population 10 Table F.2 Finite Queuing Factors Population 20 Table F.3 Finite Queuing Factors Population 30 Appendix G Selected Bibliography G.l Systems, Systems Analysis, and Systems Engineering G.2 Concurrent and Simultaneous Engineering G.3 Software and Computer-Based Systems G.4 Reliability Engineering G.5 Maintainability Engineering and Maintenance G.6 Human Factors and Safety Engineering G.7 Production, Manufacturing, and Quality Assurance G.8 Logistics, Supply Chain, Supportability, and Sustainability G.9 Operations Research and Operations Management G.IO Engineering Economics and Life-Cycle Cost Analysis G.ll Management and Supporting Areas Appendix H Selected Websites Index