Financial Statement Analysis

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1 Financial Statement Analysis Valuation Credit analysis Executive compensation Christian V. Petersen and Thomas Plenborg Financial Times Prentice Hall is an imprint of Harlow, England London New York Boston San Francisco Toronto Sydney Singapore Hong Kong Tokyo Seoul Taipei New Delhi Cape Town Madrid Mexico City Amsterdam Munich Paris Milan

2 Preface Publisher's acknowledgements xiii xvii 1 Introduction to financial statement analysis 1 Learning outcomes 1 Introduction to financial statement analysis 1 International Financial Reporting Standards 2 Decisions and decision models 3 Outline of the book 13 Conclusions 17 Review questions 18 Notes 18 References 18 Part 1 ACCOUNTING DATA 19 Introduction to Part Introduction to financial statements and bookkeeping 22 Learning outcomes 22 Introduction to financial statements and bookkeeping 22 The income statement and statement of comprehensive income 23 Balance sheet 27 Cash flow statement 30 Statement of changes in owners' equity 32 Recording transactions and preparing financial statements 32 Transaction analysis illustrated ' 37 Financial statements 43 Conclusions 45 Review questions 46 Appendix Accrual-based versus cash-flow-based performance measures 47 Learning outcomes 47 Accrual-based versus cash-flow-based performance measures 47 VII

3 ents The distinction between accrual-based and cash-flow-based performance measures 48 Conclusions 59 Review questions 59 References 59 Part 2 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 61 Introduction to Part The analytical income statement and balance sheet 68 Learning outcomes 68 The analytical income statement and balance sheet 68 Carlsberg's NOPAT and invested capital 79 Conclusions 91 Review questions 92 5 Profitability analysis 93 Learning outcomes 93 Profitability analysis 93 Measurement of operating profitability 94 Alternative interpretations of the return on invested capital 99 Decomposition of return on invested capital 107 Analysis of profit margin and turnover rate of invested capital 111 Return on equity 117 Conclusions 120 Review questions 122 Appendix Growth analysis 127 Learning outcomes 127 Growth 127 Sustainable growth rate 128 Is growth always value creating? 131 What is the quality of growth? 134 Is growth sustainable? 137 Is growth in earnings per share (EPS) always value creating? 140 Does growth in financial ratios caused by share buy-back always add value? 141 The relationship between growth and liquidity 147 Conclusions 148 Review questions 148 Notes 149 References ~ Liquidity risk analysis 150 Learning outcomes 150 Liquidity risk 150

4 Measuring short-term liquidity risk 153 Measuring long-term liquidity risk 158 Shortcomings of financial ratios measuring the short- and long-term liquidity risk 165 Conclusions 165 Review questions 166 Appendix Notes 170 Part3 DECISION MAKING 171 Introduction to Part Forecasting 174 Learning outcomes 174 Forecasting 174 The design of pro forma statements 175 Designing a template for forecasting 181 The estimation of financial value drivers 187 Financial statement analysis 194 Conclusions 199 Review questions 200 Appendix Valuation 208 Learning outcomes 208 Valuation 208 Approaches to valuation 210 The attributes of an ideal valuation approach 212 Present value approaches 212 The relative valuation approach (multiples) 226 The liquidation approach 235 Conclusions 237 Review questions 237 Appendix Note 244 References Cost of capital 245 Learning outcomes 245 Cost of capital 245 Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) 246 Alternative methods of measuring the systematic risk (fi e ) 254 Conclusions 266 Review questions 267 Appendix Note 270 References 270 IX

5 11 Credit analysis 271 Learning outcomes 271 Corporate credit analysis 271 The fundamental credit analysis approach 272 Pricing credit risk 291 Prediction of corporate default using statistical models 292 Conclusions 297 Review questions 297 Note 297 References Accounting-based bonus plans for executives 299 Learning outcomes 299 Introduction to executive compensation 299 Characteristics of an effective bonus plan 301 Components of a bonus plan 306 Choice of performance measures 307 Choice of performance standards 314 Choice of pay to performance structure 318 EVA-based bonus contract - a feasible solution to accounting-based performance measures 322 Conclusions 327 Review questions 327 Note 327 References 328 Part 4 ASSESSMENT OF ACCOUNTING DATA 329 Introduction to Part Accounting quality 333 Learning outcomes 333 Accounting quality 333 The purpose of financial statement analysis and good accounting quality 336 Assessment of accounting quality 338 Total assessment of accounting quality 370 Conclusions 371 Review questions 371 Note 372 References Accounting flexibility in the income statement 373 Learning outcomes 373 Accounting flexibility in the income statement 373 Accounting regulation and flexibility 375 Accounting flexibility in the income statement 380 Accounting flexibility and economic consequences 394

6 Accounting issues in valuation 396 Accounting issues in credit analysis 404 Accounting issues in executive compensation 406 Conclusions 408 Review questions 408 Appendix 14.1 _ 409 Appendix Notes 410 Reference Accounting flexibility in the balance sheet 411 Learning outcomes 411 Accounting flexibility in the balance sheet 411 Assets, liabilities and related expenses 411 Accounting flexibility and economic consequences 433 Accounting issues in valuation 433 Accounting issues in credit analysis 444 Accounting issues in executive compensation 450 Conclusions 454 Review questions 455 Appendix Notes 456 References 457 Glossary 458 Index 467 XI

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