The Shale Revolution

Transcription

1 The Shale Revolution Myths and Realities Energy Growth Conference First Energy Capital Toronto, Ontario November 19, 213 J. David Hughes Global Sustainability Research Inc. Post Carbon Institute

2 Points to be covered: - The Shale Revolution and Conventional Wisdom - SHALE GAS A look at the fundamentals with examples from the Haynesville and Marcellus (with a quick look at LNG exports from Western Canada) - SHALE (TIGHT) OIL A look at the fundamentals with examples from the Permian Basin, Bakken and Eagle Ford - Bakken and Eagle Ford production forecast - IMPLICATIONS for long term energy sustainability

3 The Shale Revolution Began with the application of high-volume, multi-stage, hydraulicfracturing of shale for gas in the Barnett Field of eastern Texas. Now accounts for 4% of U.S. gas production. The technology was first applied to oil extraction in the Bakken Field of Montana and North Dakota. Allowed a 5% increase in U.S. oil production reversing the long standing decline from peak U.S. production in 197. Nearly 35% of upstream investment in lower 48 exploration and development will be applied to the Bakken and Eagle Ford tight oil plays in 213. Hughes GSR Inc, 213

4 Conventional Wisdom The United States is on the verge of Energy Independence thanks to the SHALE REVOLUTION. Shale Gas production will continue to grow for the foreseeable future (24 at least) and prices will remain below $4.5/mcf for the next 1 years and below $6./mcf for the next 2 years. Shale Gas can replace very substantial amounts of oil for transport and coal for electricity generation. The way is clear for U.S. LNG exports to monetize the shale bounty. Large scale LNG exports of shale gas from Canada will provide a bonanza. Tight Oil will allow U.S. production to exceed that of Saudi Arabia and U.S. imports will shrink to zero. Hughes GSR Inc, 212

5 Trillion Cubic Feet per Year 3 25 U.S. Gas Production and Imports, Net LNG Imports Net Canadian Imports Dry Gas Production Net LNG Imports 2 Net Canadian Imports 15 1 Dry Gas Production Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from EIA current to August, 212)

6 Billion Cubic Feet per Day 8 7 U.S. Dry Gas Production, U.S. production plateau September July Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from EIA Natural Gas Monthly, October, 213, 3 month trailing moving average)

7 Trillion Cubic Feet per Year U.S. Natural Gas Supply Projection by Source, 21-24, EIA Reference Case LNG Imports Canada Imports Shale Gas Alaska Coalbed Methane Tight Gas Associated Conventional Offshore Shale Gas 55% increase in production by 24 U.S. domestic consumption 5% of 24 Production 15 Alaska 1 Tight Gas 5 Associated Conventional Offshore Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 213, Tables 13 and 14,

8 Gas Price ($US/mcf) EIA Projections of Gas Price and U.S. Production Compared to History, Year Russian Gas Price Indonesia LNG Gas Price in Japan U.S. Henry Hub Gas Price EIA Forecast U.S. Gas Price ($211) Actual U.S. Gas Production EIA Forecast U.S. Gas Production Annual Gas Production (Trillion cubic feet) Hughes GSR Inc, 212 (data from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 213, EIA, 212; International Monetary Fund)

9 2,5 U.S. Rig Count, , Oil Gas 1,5 Oil 1, 5 Gas Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Baker-Hughes, November, 213)

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11 Billion Cubic Feet per Day U.S. Shale Gas Production by Play, Other Austin Chalk Bone Spring Bossier Antrim Niobrara Bakken Woodford Eagle Ford Fayetteville Marcellus Barnett Haynesville 4% of U.S. production Barnett Haynesville Year Hughes GSR Inc, 212 (data from Drillinginfo, September, 212, fitted with 3 month centered moving average including data up to June, 212)

12 Billion Cubic Feet per Day U.S. Shale Gas Production by Play mid Top 3 Plays = 66% of Total Top 6 Plays = 88% of Total Shale Play Hughes GSR Inc, 212 (data from DI Desktop, September, 212, for production in most cases through May-June, 212)

13 The Shale Play Life Cycle Discovery followed by leasing frenzy. Drilling boom follows to meet held-by-production lease requirements. Sweet spots identified, targeted and drilled off. Gas production rises rapidly and is maintained for cash-flow despite potentially uneconomic full-cycle costs. Sweet spots become saturated and well quality and field production decline. Plays like the Haynesville become middle aged after just five years. Hughes GSR Inc, 212

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15 Gas Production (Billion cubic feet per day) Haynesville Gas Production and Number of Operating Wells, Gas Production Number of Wells Peak January Number of Operating Wells Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, July, 213, three month trailing moving average)

16 Gas Production (Thousand cubic feet per Day) Haynesville Type Gas Well Decline Curve Yearly Declines First year = 66% Second year = 49% Third year = 41% Fourth year = 49% Hughes GSR Inc, Months on Production (data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, March, 213)

17 Gas Production (Billion cubic feet per Day) Overall Field Decline for Haynesville Gas Production based on Production Decline from pre-212 Wells Production from pre-212 Wells Number of pre-212 Wells Overall Field Decline = 47% Number of Operating pre-212 Wells Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, March, 213)

18 Average Production per Well (Thousand cubic feet per day) 4 Haynesville Average Production per Well Number of Wells 5 Average Production per Well Number of Wells Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, March, 213)

19 Annual Production Added per Well (Thousand cubic feet per day) Haynesville Annual Production Added per New Well Need 68 wells per year to keep production flat Yearly Production Added per Well Yearly Wells Added Annual Number of Wells Added Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, March, 213)

20 Haynesville Sweet Spot Well Footprint 1 mile Hughes GSR Inc, 213

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22 Production (billion cubic feet per day) Pennsylvania Marcellus Production By County Top 2 counties = 46% of production Top 4 counties = 68% of production Top 6 counties = 85% of production County Hughes GSR Inc, 213

23 Gas Production (Mcf per Day) Type Decline Curves for Marcellus Horizontal Wells by County Bradford (24%) Susquehanna (22%) Lycoming (12%) Greene (1%) Tioga (1%) Washington (9%) Remaining 27 Counties (15%) Hughes GSR Inc, 213 Months on Production

24 Production (billion cubic feet per day) Estimated Ultimate Recovery for Pennsylvania Marcellus Horizontal Wells By County Remaining Well Life First 3 years 62%-77% produced in first 3 years. EIA EUR estimate of 1.56 bcf underestimates best counties. Hughes GSR Inc, 213 County

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26 Well Footprint Dimock, Susquehanna County, PA 1 Mile Hughes GSR Inc, 213

27 Gas Production (Thousand cubic feet per Day) Type Gas Well Decline Curves for Top Five Shale Gas Plays Constituting 8% of Shale Gas Production Haynesville Marcellus Barnett Fayetteville Woodford Average 3-Year Decline = 84% 3-Year Decline Haynesville = 89% Marcellus = 79% Barnett = 79% Fayetteville= 8% Woodford = 77% Hughes GSR Inc, Months on Production (data from Drillinginfo, March, 213)

28 Gas Production (Billion cubic feet per Day) Overall Field Decline for Top Five Shale Gas Plays based on Production Decline from pre-212 Wells Field Decline (per year) Haynesville = 47% Marcellus = 29% Barnett = 28% Fayetteville = 35% Woodford = 44% Average Field Decline = 37% Haynesville Marcellus Barnett Fayetteville Woodford Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, March, 213)

29 Gas Production (Billion cubic feet per day) Shale Gas Production from Top Five Plays Comprising 8% of U.S. shale gas production, Barnett Fayetteville Woodford Haynesville PA Marcellus WV Marcellus Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, July, 213, three month trailing moving average)

30 1, U.S. Gas Rig Count by Basin, Other Other Marcellus Barnett Haynesville Marcellus 61% Barnett Haynesville Feb, 11 Jun, 11 Oct, 11 Feb, 12 Jun, 12 Oct, 12 Feb, 13 Jun, 13 Oct, 13 24% 15% Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Baker-Hughes, November, 213)

31 Gas Production (Billion cubic feet per day) Shale Gas Production from Top Five Shale Gas Plays, 26-June, PA Marcellus WV Marcellus Woodford Fayetteville Haynesville Barnett Peak Excluding PA Marcellus August 212 Now Down 12% Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from DrillingInfo, October, 213, three month trailing moving average)

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33 Average Intial Productivity per Well Indexed to 21 Horizontal Well Quality Trends Top Five Shale Gas Plays 1.2 Marcellus Youth 1 Fayetteville Early Middle Age.8 Barnett Middle Age.6 Haynesville Late Middle Age.4 Woodford Early Old Age Marcellus Haynesville.2 Barnett Fayetteville Woodford Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, March, 213)

34 Gas Production (Billion cubic feet per Day) Western Canadian Gas Production vs Number of Wells Gas Production Number of producing wells Number of Operating Wells Hughes GSR Inc, 213 Year (data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, June, 213)

35 British Columbia Shale Plays (EIA/ARI, June, 213)

36 Gas Production (Billion cubic feet per Day) B.C. Gas Production from Horn River, Montney and Remaining Fields Horn River Montney Remainder Hughes GSR Inc, 213 Year (data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, June, 213)

37 Gas Production (Billion cubic feet per Day) British Columbia Gas Production vs LNG Export Applications BG Group Application 21.6 million tonnes/year Exxon Application 3 million tonnes/year Existing NEB Approval 28 million tonnes/year 4 2 Existing BC Gas Production Hughes GSR Inc, 213 Year

38 Gas Production (Billion cubic feet per Day) B.C. Gas Production Required to meet 3.82 tcf/year of LNG exports by 225 Ramp up required to meet exports Production required to offset depletion of non-shale/tight plays Horn River Montney Remainder Hughes GSR Inc, 213 Year (data from DrillingInfo/HPDI, June, 213)

39 Thousand Barrels per Day Citigroup 212 Projection of U.S. Shale Oil,

40 Million Barrels per Day U.S. Crude Oil Production Projection by Source and Region (EIA 213 Reference Case) Peak Production 219 Alaska Alaska Onshore EOR Onshore Shale/Tight Oil Lower-48 Onshore Conventional Lower-48 Offshore Shale/Tight Oil Lower-48 Onshore Conventional Production Lower-48 Offshore Year Onshore EOR Hughes GSR Inc, 212 (data from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 213, EIA, 212; International Monetary Fund) 32% of 24 Supply

41 Million Barrels per Day U.S. Petroleum Liquids Supply by Source (EIA 213 Reference Case) Net Imports Biofuels Natural Gas Liquids Refinery Processing Gain Coal and Gas to Liquids Other Liquids and SPR Crude Oil Production Net Imports Biofuels Natural Gas Liquids Refinery Gains Domestic Crude Oil Production Year Hughes GSR Inc, 212 (data from EIA Annual Energy Outlook 213, EIA, 212; International Monetary Fund) Net Imports 36% Oil 32%

42 Thousand Barrels per Day Crude Oil and Other Liquids Production by Shale Play mid Top 2 Plays = 81% of Total Top 5 Plays = 92% of Total Hughes GSR Inc, 212 Shale Play (data from HPDI, September, 212, for production in most cases through May-June, 212)

43 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, U.S. Oil Rig Count by Basin, Other Permian Eagle Ford Williston (Bakken) Other 4% 8 6 Permian Basin 33% 4 2 Eagle Ford Williston (Bakken) Feb, 11 Jun, 11 Oct, 11 Feb, 12 Jun, 12 Oct, 12 Feb, 13 Jun, 13 Oct, 13 14% 13% Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Baker-Hughes, November, 213)

44 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels/day) Permian Basin Total Oil plus NGL Production and Number of Operating Wells, Total Wells Drilled = 388,533 Currently Producing Wells = 138,624 Oil Produced = 29.8 billion barrels Gas Produced = 16.4 tcf Year Oil Production Number of Wells Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213, three month trailing moving average) Number of Producing Wells

45 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) Permian Basin Oil plus NGL Production by Well Type - Comparing Horizontal to Vertical Wells, Total Horizontal Oil Production = 13.1 billion barrels Total Horizontal Gas Production = 23 tcf Total Vertical Oil Production = 16.7 billion barrels Total Vertical Gas Production = 83.4 tcf Horizontal/Directional Wells (33,421) 4 2 Vertical Wells (15,775) Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, November, 213)

46 Permian Basin Select Plays Avalon Shale Bone Springs Sand Cline Shale Leonard Shale Spraberry Wolfberry Wolfbone Wolfcamp

47 Permian Basin Select Plays (TX) post 199 wells Avalon Shale Bone Springs Sand Cline Shale Leonard Shale Spraberry Wolfberry Wolfbone Wolfcamp

48 Permian Basin Select Plays (NM & TX) post 199 wells Avalon Shale Bone Springs Sand Cline Shale Leonard Shale Spraberry Wolfberry Wolfbone Wolfcamp

49 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels/day) Permian Basin (Subset) Unconventional Oil plus NGL Production and Number of Operating Wells, Oil Production Number of Wells Number of Producing Wells Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213, three month trailing moving average)

50 Oil Production (Barrels per Day) 25 Permian Basin (Subset) Type Oil and Barrels of Oil Equivalent Well Decline Curves 2 15 Oil Production BOE Production Oil Decline First Year = 66% Second Year = 37% Third Year = 29% Fourth Year = 29% 1 3-Year Decline = 83% Hughes GSR Inc, 213 Months on Production (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

51 Oil Production (Barrels per Day) Permian Basin (Subset) Type Oil Well Decline Curves Comparing Horizontal to Vertical Wells Horizontal Production Vertical Production 3-Year Oil Decline Horizontal = 84% Vertical = 46% Months on Production Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

52 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) Permian Basin (Subset) Oil Production by Well Type - Comparing Horizontal to Vertical Wells Horizontal Production Vertical Production 1 5 Horizontal Wells Vertical Wells Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, November, 213)

53 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels/day) 9 Bakken/Three Forks Oil Production and Number of Operating Wells, Oil Production Number of Wells Number of Producing Wells Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213, three month trailing moving average)

54 Oil Production (Barrels per Day) Bakken/Three Forks Type Oil and Barrels of Oil Equivalent Well Decline Curves Including Montana and North Dakota Oil Production BOE Production Oil Decline First Year = 7% Second Year = 34% Third Year = 23% Fourth Year = 21% 3-Year Decline = 84% Hughes GSR Inc, 213 Months on Production (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

55 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels/day) Bakken Field Production Decline Oil Production from all Wells Drilled Prior to First Year Field Decline = 44% Total Oil Production Number of pre-212 Wells Number of Producing Wells Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

56 Bakken/Three Forks Stratigraphy Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (Image from Samson Oil and Gas)

57 Oil Production (Barrels per Day) 6 Bakken and Three Forks Type Oil Well Decline Curves in North Dakota 5 4 Bakken Three Forks Bakken First Year = 71% Second Year = 34% Third Year = 22% Fourth Year = 19% Three Forks First Year = 7% Second Year = 39% Third Year = 25% Fourth Year = 23% Year Decline Bakken = 86% Three Forks = 85% Hughes GSR Inc, 213 Months on Production (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

58 Bakken/Three Forks Well Distribution through mid-213 Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October 213)

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60 Production (Thousand Barrels per day) 25 Bakken/Three Forks Production By County, North Dakota and Montana, June, Total Production = 787 Kbbls/day Top 2 counties = 52% of production Top 4 counties = 85% of production Mountrail (ND) McKenzie (ND) Williams (ND) Dunn (ND) Divide (ND) Remaining ND counties County Richland (MT) Remaining MT counties Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

61 Oil Production (Barrels per Day) 7 Bakken/Three Forks Type Oil Well Decline Curves by County and Region Divide (ND) Dunn (ND) McKenzie (ND) Mountrail (ND) Williams (ND) Other ND Counties Richland (MT) Other MT Counties Hughes GSR Inc, 213 Months on Production (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

62 Cumulative Production (Thousand Barrels) Bakken/Three Forks Estimated Ultimate Recovery per Well By County, North Dakota and Montana (over 3-year life) 7 6 Cumulative for remaining 26 years with 1% annual decline Cumulative first four years % to 61% of oil is recovered in first four years All wells hit stripper status within years (1 barrels per day) Mountrail (ND) McKenzie (ND) Williams (ND) Dunn (ND) Divide (ND) Remaining ND counties County Richland (MT) Remaining MT counties Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

63 Average First Year per Well Production (Barrels/day) Bakken Average First Year Well Production by County and Region, Mountrail (ND) McKenzie (ND) Williams (ND) Dunn (ND) Divide (ND) Other ND Counties Richland (MT) Other MT Counties MT Average ND Average Bakken Average Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

64 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels/day) Bakken Oil Production - Declining Drilling Rate Scenario, (2 wells/year declining to 1 wells/year), Peak Total Oil Production Number of Wells Max Number of Wells = Total production = 5 billion bbls Peak Year = Max Drilling rate = 2 wells/y Final Drilling rate = 1 wells/y Last Well Drilled Number of Producing Wells Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

65 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels/day) Bakken Oil Production - Constant Drilling Rate Scenario, (2 wells/year), Peak Total Oil Production Number of Wells Max Number of Wells = Total production = 5.2 billion bbls Peak Year = 217 Drilling rate = 2 wells/y Last Well Drilled Number of Producing Wells Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

66 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels/day) Bakken Oil Production - Declining Drilling Rate Scenario, Risked at 8% for locations versus Unrisked, Peak 215 Risked Wells = Unrisked Wells = Risked total production = 4.5 billion bbls Unrisked total production = 5. billion bbls. Max Drilling rate = 35 wells/y Final Drilling rate = 2 wells/y Year Risked Total Oil Production Unrisked Total Oil Production Risked Number of Wells Unrisked Number of Wells Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213) Number of Producing Wells

67 Eagle Ford Gas and Oil Well Distribution through mid-213 Oil Wells Gas Wells Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October 213

68 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels/day) 12 Eagle Ford Oil plus NGL Production and Number of Operating Wells, Oil Production Number of Wells Number of Producing Wells Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213, three month trailing moving average)

69 Oil Production (Barrels per Day) Eagle Ford Type Oil and Barrels of Oil Equivalent Well Decline Curves Oil Production BOE Production Oil Decline First Year = 59% Second Year = 29% Third Year = 76% Fourth Year = 58% 3-Year Decline = 91% Hughes GSR Inc, 213 Months on Production (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

70 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels/day) Eagle Ford Field Production Decline Oil Production from all Wells Drilled Prior to First Year Field Decline = 34% Total Oil Production Number of pre-212 Wells Number of Producing Wells Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

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72 Production (Thousand Barrels per day) 25 Eagle Ford Oil Production By County, June, Total Production = 749 Kbbls/day Top 2 counties = 36% of production Top 5 counties = 75% of production Karnes Lasalle Dewitt Dimmit Gonzales Other counties County Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (note that this is 79% of total liquids production, the balance being NGLs; data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

73 Oil Production (Barrels per Day) Eagle Ford Type Oil Well Decline Curves by County and Region Dewitt Karnes Gonzales Dimmit Lasalle Other Counties Hughes GSR Inc, 213 Months on Production (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

74 Average First Year per Well Production (Barrels/day) Eagle Ford Average First Year Well Production by County and Region, Eagle Ford Average Dewitt Dimmit Gonzales Karnes Lasalle Other Counties Year Dewitt Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

75 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels/day) Eagle Ford Oil Production - Declining Drilling Rate Scenario, (35 wells/year declining to 2 wells/year), Peak 217 Max Number of Wells = 4532 Total production = 7.3 billion bbls Peak Year = 217 Max Drilling rate = 35 wells/y Final Drilling rate = 2 wells/y Year Total Oil Production Number of Wells Last Well Drilled Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213) Number of Producing Wells

76 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels/day) Eagle Ford Oil Production - Declining Drilling Rate Scenario, Risked at 8% for locations versus Unrisked, Peak 217 Risked Wells = 3752 Unrisked Wells = 4532 Risked total production = 6.3 billion bbls Unrisked total production = 7.5 billion bbls. Max Drilling rate = 35 wells/y Final Drilling rate = 2 wells/y Year Risked Total Oil Production Unrisked Total Oil Production Risked Number of Wells Unrisked Number of Wells Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213) Number of Producing Wells

77 Oil Production (Thousand Barrels/day) Bakken and Eagle Ford Oil Production Declining Drilling Rate Risked at 8% for locations, Peak 216 Bakken Risked Wells = Eagle Ford Risked Wells = 3752 Bakken risked total production = 4.5 billion bbls Eagle Ford risked total production = 6.5 billion bbls. Max Drilling rate = 55 wells/y Final Drilling rate = 3 wells/y 15 Eagle Ford Eagle Ford Risked Production Bakken Risked Production 1 5 Bakken Year Hughes GSR Inc, 213 (data from Drillinginfo, October, 213)

78 There is no such thing as a FREE LUNCH There has been a great deal of pushback by many in the general public and in State and National governments to environmental issues surrounding hydraulic fracturing. (eg. Global Frackdown held October 19, 213, involving 25 protests in 26 countries) Hughes GSR Inc, 213

79 A Reality Check? "We are all losing our shirts today. We're making no money. It's all in the red. (Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon Mobil, Wall Street Journal, June 212) The United States oil and gas industry has over fracked and over drilled (Mattihus Bichsel, projects and technology director, Royal Dutch Shell Plc., October 17, 213) Shell writes down $2.2 billion in shale assets and puts Eagle Ford properties up for sale (Reuters September 3, 213) Hughes GSR Inc, 213

80 A Reality Check? In a recent analysis, [Bernstein Research] estimates that non-opec marginal cost of production rose last year to $14.5 a barrel, up more than 13 per cent from $92.3 a barrel in 211. (Bernstein Research, New York, May 213) Hughes GSR Inc, 213

81 Tight Oil Takeaways Tight oil production from the top two plays is likely to peak in timeframe. High field decline rates mandate sustained high levels of drilling to maintain production. Increasing drilling rates over current levels in the Bakken and Eagle Ford, which account for one third of U.S. E&P investment, would only increase peak production slightly and move it forward by perhaps a few months. Increases in the number of available drilling locations will increase ultimate recovery but will not change the timing of peak production at current drilling rates. High quality shale plays are not ubiquitous: 88% of shale gas production comes from 6 of 3 plays. 7% of tight oil production comes from 2 of 21 plays. Hughes GSR Inc, 213

82 Implications The Shale Revolution has been a game-changer in that it has temporarily reversed a terminal decline in supplies from conventional sources. Long term sustainability is questionable and environmental impacts are a major concern. Almost all eggs are in the shale basket as a hope in meeting U.S. energy supply growth projections from oil and gas and in meeting B.C. LNG export requirements. US Energy Independence with the forecast energy trajectory is highly unlikely, barring a radical reduction in consumption. The Shale Revolution has provided a temporary respite from declining oil and gas production but should not be viewed as a panacea for increasing energy consumption and exporting the bounty - rather it should be used as an opportunity to create the infrastructure needed for a lower energy throughput to maximize long term energy security.