South to Midwest Transfer & Unused Generation Capacity

Transcription

1 South to Midwest Transfer & Unused Generation Capacity PAC Jan 29, 2014

2 Drivers and Objective EPA regulations, expected sustained competitive natural gas prices and high renewable energy penetration is driving retirements and a changing generation portfolio Resource adequacy surveys (LSEs and OMS) have indicated approximately 7.5 GW shortfalls in reserves against LOLE targets of 14.8% margin Analysis also indicates some existing capacity may be available: - Existing trapped capacity without Interconnection Service - Energy Resources that are not currently deliverable - MISO South area capacity Planning project is underway to identify location and quantity of existing unused capacity, and the transmission upgrades needed to release this capacity Implementing will require extensive outreach to impacted entities and regulators 2

3 Extensive Stakeholder Outreach Generator Owner TO & LSE Stakeholders State Regulators MISO 3

4 South to Midwest Transfer Project 4

5 2016 Resource Adequacy Summary Presented at SAWG and PAC December 2013 MISO Central & North Regions In GW MISO South Region In GW Resources 2016 Load (14.8% PRM) Expected Shortfall 2016 Resources 2016 Load (14.8% PRM) Expected Surplus 1 Net capacity additions over existing resources (planning resource not reported + new capacity + BTM + Imports + DSM exports retirements) 5

6 Milestones and Schedule Task Schedule/ Status Scoping Dec Jan Provide transparency on MISO Midwest shortfalls and establish Capacity needs from South Presented at December SAWG and PAC Evaluate 2016 transfer capability February March 2014 Provide transparency on transmission constraints based on transfer studies between MISO South and MISO Midwest and quantify resulting increases in simultaneous export limits Determine transmission solutions April June 2014 Coordinate with Transmission Owners on Network Upgrades and identify Near and Long Term feasible upgrade sets Provide transparency on Near term impact of transmission solutions on Resource Adequacy. Determine optimal set of Near Term upgrades through transfer studies. Final recommendations June November 2014 Perform final transmission study to determine impact of transmission solutions on Capacity Exports from MISO South Parallel efforts include ongoing projects to support Resource Adequacy as well as the base business annual LOLE study and ongoing Southern Region MEP study. 6

7 Key Deliverables MISO South to Midwest (North / Central) 2016 summer transfer limits Transmission constraints, mitigation plans, and high-level cost The Operations Reliability Coordination Agreement will be considered in the deliverables Set of Network Upgrades for recommendation to MTEP Estimation of Capacity Import and Export Limits for MISO Resource Assessment for 2016 planning year 7

8 Unused Generation Capacity Project 8

9 MISO Midwest Existing Capacity Summary 1 Based on the 2013 LTRA Interconnection Service Review data 2 GVTC Generator Verification Test Capacity, NRIS Network Resource Interconnection Service Note: These numbers will be refined in the Unused Generation Capacity project 9

10 Note: These numbers will be refined in the Unused Generation Capacity project 666 MW 1073 MW 663 MW 624 MW 292 MW 326 MW 90 MW 10

11 Milestones and Schedule Task Schedule/ Status Initiation Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Create scope document In Progress Create schedule and estimate In Progress Phase 1 -Preliminary Analysis (scoping) phase Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Calculate initial Unused Capacity Numbers Done Refine Unused Capacity Numbers In Progress Phase 2 System Impact Studies (SIS) Phase Jan 2014 May 2014 Model Building In Progress Input file creation System Impact Study Phase 3 Facilities Study and Recommendation Phase June 2014 Sept 2014 Coordinate with TO's to perform facility studies Make final recommendations on mitigation plans 11

12 Key Deliverables Unused generation capacity in the MISO Midwest region that are currently not qualified as planning capacity resources Transmission constraints, mitigation plans, and high-level cost by zones Estimate unlock MW by zones and years Set of Network Upgrades for recommendation to MTEP 14 Appendix A Estimation on new Planning Resource qualifications in MISO Resource Assessment for 2016 planning year 12

13 Project Team Executive Sponsor Patrick Brown Project Consultant Digaunto Chatterjee South to Midwest Transfer Capability Project Lead Jeanna Furnish Unused Generation Capacity Project Lead Ling Hua