Yara International ASA 2016 second quarter results. 21 July 2016
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1 Yara International ASA 216 second quarter results 21 July 216
2 Safe operations is our first priority TRI ) TRI: Total recordable injuries, lost time (absence from work), restricted work and medical treatment cases per one million work hours 2) OFD and Galvani included in statistics from January 216 2
3 Summary second quarter Results impacted by lower fertilizer prices Positive impact from lower energy prices and stronger US dollar Deliveries of Yara-produced fertilizer up 8% Continued strong production performance, especially ammonia Gain of NOK 1.6 billion from sale of CO 2 business Improvement program: at least USD 5 million identified 3
4 Earnings per share* EPS excluding currency and special items Annual NOK *Average number of shares for 2Q 216: million (2Q 215: million). 4
5 2Q catch-up in European fertilizer industry deliveries; full season in line with a year earlier Full-season deliveries (12m ending 3 Jun) Quarterly deliveries Million tons N % Million tons N 1,73 1,613 1,881 1,832 2,353 2,33 +6% 1,653 1, /12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Domestic production Imports 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 14/15 15/16 Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries. 5
6 Brazil: 1H industry deliveries up 13%, Yara up 19% Kilotons 15, Season-to-date (1H) fertilizer deliveries +13% Kilotons 7 Season-to-date premium product deliveries 1, 6 +47% 5, 5 Kilotons 4, 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 1H , 2, 1, +19% 2 1 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 1H16 1H7 1H8 1H9 1H1 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 1H16 Industry Yara Brazil Galvani Trade Source: ANDA, Yara 6
7 Yara 2Q fertilizer sales by market and product Kilotons 2,24 2,293 1,82 1,986 2Q15 2Q ,31 1, Europe Brazil Latin America North America Asia Africa 1,141 1, ,124 1,24 1,353 1,473 1,326 1,292 1, Compound NPK 1 Blend NPK Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CN 1) Yara-produced compound NPK and third party sourced (Total NPK minus blend NPK) 7
8 Reduced exports from China amid lower prices USD/t Declining urea pricing Kilotons 2,4 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Chinese exports and urea price Black Sea USD/t Urea fob Black Sea Urea granular fob Egypt Urea prilled fob China Source: BOABC, CFMW 8
9 and increased production elsewhere Gross capacity additions, excl. China (mill. tonnes urea 1 ) 7.6 Nigeria.7 Russia.3 Iran Nigeria.7 Russia.3 Iran.5 Algeria 1.2 Algeria 1.2 USA 1.7 Indonesia.7 India.7 Egypt.6 Malaysia.6 Mexico.5 Bangladesh.3 USA 2.5 India.7 Malaysia.5 Indonesia.5 Mexico.5 Azerbaijan.4 Bolivia.3 Bangladesh.3 3. Russia.3 Iran.5 USA.9 Brazil.6 Turkmenistan.6 Azerbaijan.4 Bolivia Nigeria 1.3 Russia 1. Brazil.6 Turkmenistan.6 2. Nigeria 1.3 Russia.7 ~3 Mt consumption growth Source: CRU, gross capacities, June 216 1) Using 5% operating rate in new plants first year of production 9
10 Yara Improvement Program will deliver cost and revenue improvements throughout the organization Overview of main initiatives Production Commercial Supply Chain/Other Plant productivity improvement and portfolio optimization Crop roadmap implementation Small site productivity improvement Sales excellence Brazil post integration improvement program Supply Chain transformation Procurement excellence IT optimization Expert Functions optimization The program is expected to deliver at least USD 5 million EBITDA improvement by 22 Note: Size of boxes does not indicate relative EBITDA potential from initiatives 1
11 Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) EBITDA excluding special items NOK millions 7,884 4,614 4,184 4,149 4,13 4,39 3,318 3,223 2,363 1,858 3,83 3,591 4,227 4,185 4,625 4,2 4,528 3,964 5,742 4,794 5,179 5,55 3,58 3,54 5,55 5,5 5,489 3,958 Annual NOK millions ,399 16,47 21,361 1,544 11
12 EBITDA development NOK millions 5, , ,489 2, ,165 EBITDA 2Q15 Volume Price/Margin Energy costs Currency translation Special items Other EBITDA 2Q16 12
13 Lower prices mainly impact Production segment EBITDA (NOK millions) 3,133 2,976 1,65 1,572 1,33 1,33 EBITDA excluding special items 1, ,12 1, Crop Nutrition Industrial Production 2Q15 2Q16 13
14 Lower natural gas cost in Europe USD/ MMBtu 8. Yara European gas & oil cost NOK millions Change in spot energy cost (2) (4) (151) (25) (6) (8) (588) (588) (65) Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 TTF (1-month lag) *Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 12 July 216 Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren Yara Europe (1,) (1,2) (923) (1,42) 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Actual July 216 estimate* 14
15 Lower European nitrate premiums at end of season USD/t Nitrogen upgrading margins 1 (monthly publication prices) 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 CAN (46% N) NH3 CFR (46% N) Urea Egypt CFR proxy 1) All prices in urea equivalents Yara EU gas cost *2 Nitrate premium above urea Value above ammonia Value above gas USD/t European nitrate premium 2 (quarterly Yara realized) 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 2) Yara European realized nitrate prices (excl. sulphur grades) compared with urea publication prices (Egypt CFR proxy) with 1 month time lag. All numbers in USD per tonne of CAN equivalents. 15
16 Lower commodity phosphate margins, solid compound NPK premiums USD/t 6 Phosphate upgrading margins USD/t 7 NPK premium over blend NH3, fob Black Sea *.22 Value above raw material Weighted average global premium above blend cost Nitrate premium, CIF inland Germany Urea, CIF inland Germany 1 Rock, fob North Africa *1.4 1 DAP, CIF inland Germany 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 DAP, fob USG MOP, CIF inland Germany 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 1) Export NPK plants, average grade , net of transport and handling cost. 16
17 Net interest-bearing debt development NOK millions 4,15 1,894 2,83 8,465 3,817 2, ,698 Net debt Mar 16 Investments (net) Yara dividend and share buy-backs Cash earnings* Net operating capital change Sale of CO 2 business Foreign currency translation gain Other Net debt Jun 16 * Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges 17
18 Prospects Supportive farm margin outlook overall, with lower input prices On-going production increases elsewhere displacing Chinese exports Improved pre-buying incentives in Europe; strong Yara order book Continued demand growth in Brazil, but P&K demand in other regions impacted by lower crop prices NOK ~9 million reduction in Yara s spot-priced gas cost for next 2 quarters 18
19 Additional information
20 Strong growth pipeline NOK bn Capex plan Cost&capacity improvements M&A Committed growth Maintenance Mill.tons Production growth end Finished fertilizer Ammonia Production Regularity improvement Committed growth 3 Production end 218 Production Regularity BASF JV Production improvement end 218 2) Finished fertilizer and industrial products, excl. bulk blends. Including Yara share of production in JVs. 215 numbers excl. Growhow UK (~3 kt) 3) Committed projects only. TAN Pilbara: 16 kt, Porsgrunn: 25kt, Glomfjord: 185kt, Uusikapunki: 25kt, Köping: 9kt, Sluiskil: net 16kt, Galvani (Salitre - 6% of ~ 2 mill.tons) 4) Excl. Growhow UK (~2 kt). Including 1% ownership in Pilbara NH 3 plant 5) Rio Grande expansion ads.5 million tons SSP and 1 million ton blends by 22 1) Yara s share of capex 2
21 Increasing coal prices CIF ARA 1 November 216 ($/mt) CFMW Anthracite prices July 216 (RMB/mt) 1) Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp 21
22 Continued strong production performance Kilotons 2,5 Ammonia 1 Kilotons 6, Finished fertilizer & industrial products 1 2, 5, 1,5 1, 5 4, 3, 2, 1, Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN SSP - based fertilizer 1) Including share of equity-accounted investees 22
23 Fertilizer deliveries Kilotons 7, 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Europe Outside Europe 23
24 Fertilizer deliveries by product and source Kilotons 1,24 1,353 1,141 1, ,124 1,473 1,326 1,619 1, Q15 2Q16 2Q15 2Q16 2Q15 2Q16 2Q15 2Q16 2Q15 2Q16 2Q15 2Q16 Nitrate NPK compounds NPK blends Urea UAN Other Yara-produced deliveries Joint venture & third party sourced 24
25 YaraMila and YaraBela deliveries Yara-produced YaraMila deliveries Kilotons 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 Yara-produced YaraBela deliveries Kilotons 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 Outside Europe Europe Outside Europe Europe 25
26 Strong premium product deliveries in Brazil Value-added fertilizer deliveries 1 Value-added fertilizer deliveries 1 3,5 3, ,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 CAGR 6% Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 Outside Europe Europe Asia Brazil Latin America excl. Brazil Africa North America 1) YaraBela, YaraMila and YaraLiva deliveries 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 26
27 Value-added and distribution make up larger part of Yara s contribution 11, Total Yara contribution 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, Trade Upgrade & distribution 4, 3, 2, Commodity overseas 1, 2Q1 4Q1 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 Commodity Europe 27
28 AdBlue deliveries Kilotons Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 28
29 Industrial volume development Kilotons Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Industrial N-chemicals Environmental products Other 29
30 Debt/equity ratio Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)
31 Yara stocks Kilotons Finished fertilizer 7, Bunge Fertilizer included from 3Q 213 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, - Urea Nitrates Compound NPK Other 31
32 Production Export Domestic Domestic Export Production Increased production and lower export have boosted domestic supply strongly so far this season Million tons Chinese urea production 15/16 13/14 14/15 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Million tons Domestic urea balance % Source: CFMW Jul-May 14/15 Jul-May 15/16 32
33 European producers nitrate stocks Index June 27 = Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source: Fertilizers Europe, Yara estimate for June 15/16 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 33
34 Energy cost Yearly averages , quarterly averages for with forward prices* for 3Q16 and 4Q Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global TTF day ahead (Zeebrugge ) Yara Europe *Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 12 July 216 Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren 34
35 Global grain balance Grain consumption and production Million tons 2,6 2,55 2,5 2,45 2,4 2,35 2,3 2,25 2,2 2,15 2,1 2,5 2, 1, E 17F Days of consumption in stocks Days E 17F Consumption Production Source: USDA July
36 Non-commercials net long position in corn Thousand contracts Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission 36
37 Weaker farm economics in USD, affecting particularly P and K demand FAO price index Index /24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/21 1/211 1/212 1/213 1/214 1/215 1/216 Source: FAO Cereals Price Index Cereals 5 year avg. Food Price Index Food 5 year avg. 37
38 Key value drivers quarterly averages TTF day ahead (USD/MMBtu) Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)/Urea granular fob Egypt (dotted line, USD/t) CAN cif Germany (USD/t) Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu) Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t) NOK/USD exchange rate Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank 38
39 1-year fertilizer prices monthly averages USD/t Ammonia fob Black Sea 1, USD/t CAN cif Germany USD/t Urea prilled fob Black Sea/Urea granular fob Egypt USD/t DAP fob US Gulf/MOP granular fob Vancouver 1,2 1, Average prices
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