Changes in the amount of world trade

Transcription

1 Chapter 3 Trends in Japan s international trade and investment Section 1 Trends in world trade The amount of world trade in 2012 remained extremely moderate in growth reflecting the slowdown of the world economy and uncertainty towards the future of the European debt crisis. Examining the transition, the volume of world trade decreased in April, turned to increase once in May then became stagnant from June to August (Figure ⅢFigure Ⅲ-3-1-1) 1. Later in September 2012, policy measures were implemented by the governments of Japan, the United States and Europe, which resulted in easing market insecurity towards the European debt crisis. Under such circumstances the amount of trade increased in September through November, but again fell in December. World trade momentum 2 showed unstable movement throughout the year is apparent (Figure Ⅲ-3-1-2). Figure Ⅲ Changes in the amount of world trade 1 Figure has longer vertical axis only for convenience in order for a clear indication of the transition of the amount of trade. Paying attention to the extremely moderate transition of the actual amount of trade in 2012 as shown in Figure 51 bar graph is required. 2 The data of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis was employed. Momentum is a value acquired by calculation of the mean value of the backward movement of the current 3 months divide by the mean value of the backward movement of the former 3 months. Said Bureau indicates that the momentum is more desirable since the monthly data has bigger fluctuation. 1

2 Figure Ⅲ Changes in the amount of world trade (From 2012 to February 2013) The growth of the amount of the world exports in 2012 was 2.1% year-on-year, which was below that of 6.0% in 2011 (Figure Ⅲ-3-1-3). The growth rate of 2.1% year-on-year is a record low excluding the years with negative growth in the amount of trade, and is also far inferior to the average (that of 7.2%) in the years before the world economic crisis ( ). Figure Ⅲ Changes in the amount of the world trade (Annual average and Year-on-year) 2

3 In 2012, the growth of the amount of worldwide exports decreased to 2.1% year-on-year (Figure Ⅲ-3-1-4). The growth of the amount of exports in the advanced countries was 0.5% year-on-year while that in the emerging countries was 3.8% year-on-year. Examining the growth rate by major countries/regions, the growth rate in regions of the Latin America and the Middle East and Africa in 2012 expanded comparing to that of the previous year, while that in other regions diminished comparing to that of the previous year. The growth rate in the Central and Eastern Europe was 6.5%, which was the highest in major regions followed by 6.2% of that in Latin America. That of the United States was 4.2% which surpassed that of the emerging countries. On the other hand, that of the euro area was low as 0.2%. The diminished growth range was also outstanding in Asian countries. In Japan, the amount of exports marked below the previous year for two consecutive years. Figure Ⅲ Changes in the amount of world exports (Year-on-year) The growth amount of world-wide imports in 2012 was 2.1% year-on-year, which was below figure when the world economic crisis occurred (2.3% in 2008) (Figure Ⅲ-3-1-5). While the amount of imports in advanced countries decreased by 0.5% from the previous year, however, the amount of imports in emerging countries increased by 5.2% from the previous year although the growth range 3

4 was reduced. By major countries/regions, only the Middle East and Africa marked high in growth range which surpassed the previous year (13.7% compared with the same month last year) 3. As for Asia, the growth range in imports marked 4.4% supported by recovering imports in China. Japan marked 3.5% which surpassed imports of the United States (2.8%). As a result, the Japanese trade deficit in 2012 was 87 billion dollars which turned out to be the biggest since On the other hand, the euro area was the only one in the major region whose amount of imports marked lower than that of the previous year. Reduction in growth range year-on-year was outstanding in the Central and Eastern Europe and the Latin America. Figure Ⅲ Changes in the amount of world imports (Year-on-year) Next, the trends in the world trade from the aspects of the export value and imports (on the dollar-bases) will be overviewed. The growth in the export value and imports in the world (compared to the same period last year) continued decreasing since the third quarter in 2011, however, it recovered in the fourth quarter in (Figure Ⅲ-3-1-6). 3 The skyrocketing oil price in 2012 led increase in exports earnings, which is considered to result in increase in imports. 4 However, both of the exports and imports show more moderate growth on a dollar basis than the growth on the basis of aforementioned amount of trade. That was caused by falling in price of trading items, points out the WTO, and the following commodities were listed up as the most distinguished items of falling in price; coffee (-22%), cotton (-42%), ironstone (-23%) and coal (-21%). 4

5 Figure Ⅲ Changes in the value of world exports and imports (Quarter term) The trends in the export value and imports in major advanced countries/regions are as follows. First, in terms of the export value, the growth in the export value in the major advanced countries as a whole in 2012 was -3.1% year-on-year (Figure Ⅲ-3-1-7). The United States made moderate recovery in 2012 which led its year-round growth by 0.4% from the previous year (Figure Ⅲ-3-1-8). The euro area, on the other hand, experienced severe decrease in the third quarter which led its year-round growth by -4.6% from the previous year. Japan made a recovery in the export value towards the end of the year, however, that decreased again at the end of the year of 2012 which led its year-round growth by -1.7% from the previous year. The growth of the export value in the major emerging countries as a whole in 2012, on the other hand, was -1.4% year-on-year (Figure Ⅲ-3-1-8). The growth of the export value in Asia remained around the same level, and its year-round growth rate was 0.5% year-on-year (Figure Ⅲ-3-1-9). That in the Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa decreased and led their year-round negative growth comparing to the previous year. 5

6 Figure Ⅲ Changes in the value of world exports (Year-on-year) Figure Ⅲ Changes in the export value (major advanced countries) Figure Ⅲ Changes in the export value (major emerging countries) Next, in terms of the import value, the growth of the import value in major advanced countries as a whole in 2012 was -2.0% year-on-year (Figure Ⅲ ). The import value in the United States decreased in the third quarter and then increased in the fourth quarter which led a year-round positive growth year-on-year (Figure Ⅲ ). In the euro area where economic stagnation had been prolonged, the import value made a severe decrease in the third quarter which led a year-round growth by -3.9% from the previous year. In Japan, imports increased in early autumn, but decreased since 6

7 December which led a year-round growth by - 0.1% from the previous year. On the other hand, the growth of the import value in major emerging countries as a whole in 2012 was -1.2% year-on-year (Figure Ⅲ ). In Asia the import value has decreased in the last half of the year, and that of Latin America has also decreased since August. Therefore, the year-round growth rate for Asia in 2012 was 0.0% and for Latin America was 0.4% (Figure Ⅲ ). The import value in the Central and Eastern Europe made a severe decrease in the third quarter, and that in the Middle East and Africa have remained at the low level since September Figure Ⅲ Changes in the value of world imports (Year-on-year) Figure Ⅲ Changes in the import value (major advanced countries) Figure Ⅲ Changes in the import value (major emerging countries) (Increased Asian presence) As stated above, the world trade in 2012 remained extremely moderate in growth reflecting the slowdown of the world economy and the uncertainty towards the future of the European debt crisis. 7

8 Under these circumstances, IMF 5 expressed the opinion that a serious crisis risk should be decreased by policy measures implemented by the euro area and the United States, then the world trade would experience a gradual increase in 2013, and anticipate that the world economy as a whole would gradually pick up primarily in emerging countries. Table shows the top 30 countries in the value of world exports and imports as of In this list (shaded area) the Asian countries in both developed and emerging occupy 38.4% in both exports and imports, which means that the Asian countries constitute about 40 % of the world trade, which is a huge trade zone (Figure Ⅲ and Figure Ⅲ ). The Asian emerging countries including China, India, the ASEAN countries are ranked in higher places in both of the export value and that of imports, especially China is ranked higher than the United States and Japan and about to reach the EU nations in the export value, and also ranked third in the world following the United States and the EU nations in terms of import. Thus, Japan, as being physically located in Asia whose presence has been enhanced, is expected to continue to cooperate with countries within Asia including emerging countries, and adopt its growth for the future. 5 WEO April 2013 (IMF). 8

9 Table The top 30 countries/regions in the value of world exports and imports (2012) The top 30 countries/regions in vallue of the word exports and inports(2012) (Unit: billion dollars) The value of exports The value of inports Word 14,700 Word 14,940 Outside of EU27 2,166 US 2,335 China 2,049 Outside of EU27 2,301 US 1,547 China 1,818 Japan 799 Japan 886 Korea 548 Hong Kong 554 Russia 529 Korea 520 Hong Kong 493 India 489 Cnada 455 Cnada 475 Singapore 408 Mexico 380 Saudi Arabia 386 Singapore 380 Mexico 371 Russia 335 Taiwan 301 Taiwan 270 UAE 300 Australia 261 India 293 Thailand 248 Australia 257 Turkey 237 Brazil 243 Brazil 233 Thailand 230 UAE 220 Malaysia 227 Switzerland 198 Switzerland 226 Malaysia 197 Indonesia 188 Indonesia 190 Norway 160 Saudi Arabia 144 Turkey 153 South Africa 123 Qatar 129 Vietnam 114 Kuwait 121 Norway 87 Vietnam 115 Ukraine 85 Nigeria 114 Chile 79 Venezuela 97 Israel 76 Iran 96 Egypt 70 Irag 94 Argentine 69 Kazakhstan 92 Philippines 65 Source: "Word Trade 2012, prospects for 2013" (WTO). 9

10 Figure Ⅲ The world trade share of the world top 30 countries/regions in the export value in 2012 Figure Ⅲ The world trade share of the world top 30 countries/ regions in the import value in

11 Section 2 The largest-ever trade deficit and the competitiveness of Japanese enterprises 1. Background of the largest-ever trade deficit (1) Overview of trend of trade The trade balance in 2012 (Trade Statistics by Ministry of Finance) amounted to the largest-ever deficit of trillion yen. This, for the first time in 32 years, surpassed a record deficit of trillion yen in 1980 when Japan was hit by the second oil crisis (Figure III-3-2-1). Following the last year, the trade balance has worsened due to the decrease in exports reflecting slowdown of the world economy, etc. and an increase in imports reflecting increased demand in LNG at thermal power plants, etc. The export value stood at trillion yen which was -2.7% year-on-year, and the import value stood at trillion yen which was +3.8% year-on-year. Figure III Changes in Japan s trade balance (2) Trend of trade by trade partners / regions and by item Looking at the trade balance in 2012 by regions, the trade balance against the EU was trillion yen, which was the first-ever deficit, and the trade deficit against China recorded the largest-ever at trillion yen (Figure III-3-2-2). Exports towards the EU where its economy has been under influence of the European debt crisis was -14.7% (-1.71% year-on-year point in contribution in the total export value), and exports towards China where its economic expansion has slowed down was -10.8% (-2.13% point in contribution). Thus, the sluggish exports towards both of the regions are considered influencing factors. Looking at exports by items, the export value declined in wide variety of items. Especially in terms of general machinery, its year-on-year point in contribution in the total export value was -1.47%, which greatly contributed to a negative result. This was considered as a result of decreased export amounts in motors and machineries for construction/mining towards China. On the other hand, as for 11

12 transportation equipment, its year-on-year point in contribution was +1.47%, supported by the increase of exports in automobile and its parts towards the United States (Table ). As for imports, increased import value of mineral-related fuels (crude oil and rough oil, liquid natural gas, etc.) especially liquid natural gas from the Middle East and Africa play a major role in the contribution to increase imports (Table ). Figure III Changes in trade balance by region Table Contributions by trade partners / regions in the increase / decrease of the export value (2012) total Food Raw material Mineral fuel Chemical products Product by raw material General machinery Transporta Electric tion equipment equipment World US EU China ASEAN Middle East Other Other Source: Trade Statistics (Ministry of Finance) 12

13 Table Contributions by trade partners / regions in the increase/decrease of the import value (2012) total Food Raw material Mineral fuel Clued oil Liquefied Petroleum and rough natural products oil gas Compress ed petroleum gas World US EU China ASEAN Middle East ー Other Coal Chemical products Product by raw material Transport General Electric ation machinery equipment equipment Other Source: Trade Statistics (Ministry of Finance) (3) Trade balance trends seen from price/quantity factors Trade deficit in 2012 (-6.9 trillion yen) has expanded by about trillion yen from that of By decomposing the factors of such expansion into; export price, export quantity, import price and import quantity, the following factors are indicated to contribute to the expansion of trade deficit: decrease in export quantity (-3.0 trillion yen out of -4.4 trillion yen contribute to trade deficit expansion), increase in import price (-1.1 trillion yen) and an increase in import quantity (-1.4 trillion yen). As for the ratio of contributions in expansion of trade deficit in 2012, export quantum factor: import unit factor: import quantum factor was 54:19:26. Compared to that in 2011, 22:57:21 of respective factors, this indicated a decrease in export quantity, which made a bigger influence on the trade deficit. On the other hand, the contributions of the import unit factor, which had greatly contributed to expansion of trade deficit in 2011, has been diminished due to slower increase in import prices of mineral-related fuels (crude oil and rough oil, liquid natural gas, etc.) from the beginning of 2012 to September or November of Figure III Factor breakdown of trade balance (differences from the previous year) (A) Export price influence and export quantity As discussed above in [(2) Trend of trade by trade partners/regions and by item] the export value 13

14 in a wide variety of major export items except transportation equipment has been decreasing. By examining the price/quantity factor, the influence of the reduction in export quantity has been apparent greatly in general machinery and electrical equipment (Figure III-3-2-6). Figure III Broken down year-on-year contributions of the export value by items The slowdown of the world economy would be indicated as a major factor in the decrease of export quantity; however, as analyzed in the following section, the decline in competitiveness in exports of Japanese enterprises would also be considered one of the influencing factors. Such situations are also examined in our competitive relationships with the export enterprises in emerging countries. Looking at the Export Similarity Index 6 of export structure with major countries, similarity with South Korea had been growing from the late 1990s to the mid-2000s, and competitiveness with China has always been growing consistently. 6 Export Similarity Index is the figure which is calculated as follows: Calculate the share of each export item in the total export value of each of the two countries in comparison, and take the numbers of smaller shares in every export item, and then add those numbers. When the export structure of two countries is totally identical, the index should be 1. The higher the index is, the higher the similarity in their export structure. 14

15 Figure III Changes in the export similarity index in the export structure among major countries (B) Import price/quantity influence An increase in imports of the mineral-related fuels, mainly liquid natural gas for the high efficiency thermal power plant, had been seen to contribute to an increase of the import value in In addition, the diminished import price factors and expanded import quality factors compared to that of 2011 was confirmed. The same trend was also seen in imported items. Thus, the increases in import price and import volume of mineral-related fuels have a great contribution to the increase in import value as a whole (Figure III-3-2-8). However, the price of imports of mineral related fuels, oil and mineral related fuel oil products, and liquid natural gas had been slower in increase in 2012 (Figure III-3-2-9), and therefore the influence of the import price factor on the increase in the import value has been more moderate than that of Figure III Broken down year-on-year contributions of the import value by items 15

16 Figure III Changes in the import price of mineral-related fuels, etc. (4) Fluctuation in exchange rate and trade trends after the fourth quarter of 2012 The lower Yen trend at the exchange market has been observed since October 2012 (Figure III ). Examining how the fluctuation in exchange rates has affected trade trends by trade index, a different trend has emerged in both export and import value since October As for the export value, a negative range comparing the previous year has been diminished since October 2012, and the export value remained at a positive range in March and April 2013 comparing to the previous year (preliminary figures). By decomposing the export value into export price and export quantity, indicated is that the export price has seen an upward trend supported by the consistent lower Yen trend, while export quantity remains at a low level in the negative range comparing to the previous year. This indicates that the increase in export price has affected increase in export value. Continuation of the lower Yen trend at the exchange market should be expected to have an effect on increasing export quantity through improved price competitive edge by exporting companies. However, even with a sign of recovery, export quantity has still remained in the negative range compared to last year as of April As for the import value, on the other hand, an upward trend has been followed with an increase in import prices supported by the lower yen in the exchange market, and with a flat trend in the import amount supported by brisk demand for mineral related fuels (Figure III ). Figure III Changes in the exchange market 16

17 Figure III Changes in the trade index (year-to-year comparison) 2. Competitiveness of Japanese enterprises (1) The share in world exports Looking at the recent trend in Japan s exports, Japan is still behind in the recovery from the Lehman Shock (Figure III ). While the European countries, the United States and other major Asian countries have already recovered beyond the pre-lehman Shock level, Japan s economy has not yet recovered to it (Figure III ). Japan s export competitiveness may have possibly declined with a long-term perspective, even taking into account the influence of the earthquake disaster, Figure III Changes in the Japanese trade amount 17

18 Figure III Changes in the export value in the major countries (2008=100) Looking at the exports of Japan by items, only the general machinery among the three major export items; general machinery, electrical machinery and automobile (these three items account for more than half of Japan s total exports), had enabled recovery to the level before the Lehman Shock (Figure III (1)). Focusing the attention on the trade surplus (exports - imports), decline in the value of surplus in electrical machinery actually started before the Lehman Shock (Figure III (2)). By analyzing Japan s exports based on the classification of industries stated in the section 1 of chapter 1, indicated is the fact that the share of general machinery, transport machinery, chemical products, metal products, and electrical machinery occupy a large part of Japan s exports (the share of electrical machinery in Japan s exports has rapidly decreased since 2000 (Figure III )). Figure III Changes in Japan s trade amount by major trade items 18

19 Figure III Share of industries in Japan s exports Now we will examine whether the competitiveness of Japan s exports has actually declined by using the two types of index (the share of Japan in the world export amount, and the export specialization index. With such index, evaluation on long term trends of Japan s exports (the total exports and its major export items) as well as those of other major countries will be conducted for analysis and comparison. We start with an analysis employing the index for Japan s share in the value of world exports. The export value of Japan has already been examined. However, analyzing Japan s share in the value of world exports is necessary because even though Japan s exports increase, Japan s competitive position in the world economy remains the same if exports also increase in other countries. Table shows the share of Japan in the world exports, and its long term trend is made into 19

20 a graph, Figure III Indicated here is a moderate decline of the share of Japan in total exports. Looking at the trend of the selected top 10 items in the export value in 2011 as the major export items, the share of general machinery, motor vehicles, electrical machinery, and precision machinery, etc. are examined as being decreased for tendency 7. Table Share of the major export items of Japan in world exports (in 2011) Rank Items Export amount (Billion dollar) General machinery (HS84) Motor vehicles (HS87) Electrical machinery (HS85) Precision machinery (HS90) Iron and steel (HS72) Plastics (HS39) Organic chemicals (HS29) Precious stone, precious metal (HS71) Mineral fuels (HS27) Rubber (HS40) Total export amount Notes: 1. The top 10 items (81.7% of exports) in the export amount in 2011 by HS 2 digit code 2. Ships (HS89) is excluded because it includes ship with a flag of convenience. Source: Comtrade (United Nations) Figure III Share of the major export items of Japan in world exports Share (%) Share in the world exports (%) 25 Motor vehicles (HS87) Iron and steel (HS72) Precision equipment (HS90) General machinery (HS84) Rubber (HS40) 20 General Machinery Electrical machinery Motor Vehicles Precision Machinery Electrical machinery (HS85) Organic chemicals (HS29) Plastics (HS39) Notes: The top 10 items in the export amount in 2011 by HS 2 digit code Source: Comtrade (United Nations) Total Semiprecious stone, precious metal (HS71) Mineral fuels (HS27) Now, subdivided items of general machinery, motor vehicles, electrical machinery and precision machinery that cause the decline of shares will be examined. As major items among general machinery, share of the top 10 items in the export value in 2011 is 7 In order to make comparison between Japan and other countries, the world common code, the HS code (Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System) is used for analysis. The HS code is made of up to 6 digits, and as the code goes by two, four and six digits, a more subdivided item will be represented. Here, the items of big export value will be selected with 2 digit code, and a subdivision of those items will be researched with 4 digit code as needed. The descriptions of individual items of HS code are simplified. 20

21 shown in Table , and its long term trend is indicated in the Figure III Posted also is a few items as a reference which was highly ranked in the export value in 1995 but it is no longer the case today 9. Examined here is that the share of bulldozers in general machinery has remained high, but that of automatic data processing machine (personal computers) and office appliance parts have severely declined. Furthermore, the shares of engine parts, pump, gearbox, ball bearing and internal-combustion engines etc. have also declined. Provided the share of machine tool by summing up several code numbers, the examined share has been recovered to a high standard today after going though moderate decline. Although a long term chronological comparison is not available due to revision of code with a newly introduced code number, the share of Japan s semiconductor equipment occupies about one third of the world exports. Table Japan s share in world exports (general machinery in 2011) Rank Items Export amount Share Share in the world exports (Billion dollar) (%) Machineries with specific function (HS8479) *Semiconductor manufacturing equipment (HS8486) Printing machine (HS8443) Bulldozer (HS8429) Engine parts (HS8409) Air pump (HS8414) Diesel engines (HS8408) Gearbox (HS8483) Ball bearing (HS8482) Internal combustion engines (HS8407) Pumps for liquid (HS8413) General machinery (Reference) 15 Automatic data processing machines (HS8471) Office appliance parts (HS8473) Machine-tools (HS8456-HS8461) Remarks: 1. The top 10 items in the export amount in 2011 by HS 4 digit code, The higher ranked items in 1995 are also indicated. 2. Semiconductor manufacturing equipment (HS8486) is a newly established code after the code revision of 2007, which separated the semiconductor manufacturing equipment from the machineries with specific function (HS8479). In order to make comparison in chronological order semiconducter manufacturing eguipment are still indudod in HS Machine-tools which belongs to several types of classification items by HS code, is indicated as a sum of HA8456 through HS8461. Source: Comtrade (United Nations). 8 In principle, the data of Comtrade, United Nations (the data is obtained directly from Comtrade or through WITS system of the World Bank) is used here. As to the versions of HS code, the version of 1992 provided by Comtrade, is used in order to examine the historical trend. The influence of code change has been adjusted by Comtrade. However depending on the items, the code cannot be adjusted as yet, which brought about some statistic inconsistency (ex. printer HS8443, etc.). In addition, the newly established code numbers may not be indicated (semiconductor production equipment, HS8486). Under such circumstances notes are posted as necessary. 9 The year of 1995 was set as a starting point for statistical convenience. HS code became available in 1988, but the year that the data became available differed by countries. The total world export value can almost be achieved by data of 1995 (in 1988 it only covered 31.4%, and in 1995, it covered 99.5% of the total export value obtained from another item code, SITC). 21

22 Figure III Changes in Japan s share in world exports (general machinery) (%) Semiconductor manufacturing equipment Semiconductor manufacturing Equipment Machine-tools Bulldozer Machine-tools 1) Machineries with specific Function (HS8479) 3) Bulldozers (HS8429) 8) Ball bearings (HS8482) 2) Printing machine (HS8443) 9) Internal combustion engines(hs8407) 4) Engine parts (HS8409) Machineries with specific function 7) Gearbox (HS8483) 6) Diesel engines (HS8408) 5) Air pump (HS8414) 10 10) Pump for liquids (HS8413) General machinery (HS84) 5 0 Automatic data processing machines Office appliance parts Office appliance parts (HS8473) Automatic data processing machines (HS8471) Notes: Highly ranked items in the export amount in 2011 (the numbers represent the rankings of export amount).. Source: Comtrade (United Nations). Examining the share of electrical machinery for the same purpose as above, electrical machinery used to form the major export items of Japan in the 1990s. However, since then, the share of Japan has been declining in TV, radio, VCR, tube and electromagnetic tape/disc, which are considered items under commoditization (Table , Figure III ). On the other hand, while the share of condensers has been kept high, the shares of integrated circuits, semiconductor devices, wireless telephones, video/digital cameras, etc have been declining. Table Japan s share in world exports (electrical machinery) Rank Items Export amount Share Share in the world exports (Billion dollar) (%) Integrated circuit (HS8542) Semiconductor device (HS854) Wireless telephone, video/digital camera (HS8525) Circuit switch (less than 1000V)(HS8536) Condenser (HS8532) Wire equipment parts (HS8529) Wire telephone (HS8517) Transformer (HS8504) Switch board (HS8537) Switch, switch board parts (HS8538) Electrical machinery (HS85) (Reference) 17 Magnetic tape, disks (HS8523) TV (HS8528) Tube (HS8540) VCR Recorder (HS8521) Radio receiver (HS8527) Notes: The top 10 items in the export amount in 2011 by HS 4 digit code. The higher ranked items in 1995 are also indicated. Source: Comtrade (United Nations). 22

23 Figure III Changes in Japan s share in world exports (electrical machinery) Among motor vehicless, the share of motor cycles has been declining rapidly (Table , Figure III ). The share of passenger cars had remained stable until the Lehman Shock; however, it has seen a downward trend since then. 23

24 Table Japan s share in world exports (Motor vehicles) Rank Items Export amount Share Share in the world exports (Billion dollar) (%) Passenger car (HS8703) Automobile parts (HS8708) Trucks (HS8704) Motorcycle (HS8711) Automobile with more than 10 passengers (HS8702) Tractor (HS8701) Parts for motorcycle, etc. (HS8714) Motor chassis (HS8706) Special purpose automobile (HS8705) Car body (HS8707) Motor Vehiclese (HS87) Notes: The top 10 items in the export amount in 2011 by HS 4 digit code. Source: Comtrade (United Nations). Figure III Changes in Japan s share in world exports (motor vehicles) (%) Motorcycle Parts for motorcycle, etc. Passenger car 8) Motor chassis (HS8706) 5 Automobile for more than 10 passengers (HS8702) 4) Motorcycle (HS8711) 1) Passenger car (HS8703) 7) Parts for motorcycle, etc. (HS8714) Motor vehicles (HS87) 2) Automobile parts (HS8708) 3) Trucks (HS8704) Notes: The top 10 items of export amount in 2011 (Numbers represent the ranking of export amount). Source: Comtrade (United Nations). Japan s share in exports of lens/prism/mirror in precision machinery has greatly declined (Table , Figure III ). The share of Japan in liquid crystal devices and optical fibres had increased once but has been in a downward trend afterwards. 6) Tractor (HS8701) 9) Special purposes automobile (HS8705) 10) Car body (HS8707) Table Japan s share in world exports (precision machinery) 24

25 Export amount Share Share in the world exports Rank Items (Billion dollar) (%) Liquid crystal devices and lasers (HS9013) Optical fibres, lens, mirror (HS9001) Automatic adjuster including thermostat (HS9032) Medical equipment (HS9018) Analysis equipment (HS9027) Measurement/examination equipment (HS9031) Oscilloscope (HS9030) Lens/prism/mirror (HS9002) X-ray (HS9002) Testing equipment for liquid, gas, and pressure (HS9026) Precision machinery (HS90) (Reference) 18 Camera (HS9006) Notes: The top 10 items in the export amount in 2011 by HS 4 digit code. The higher ranked items in 1995 are also indicated. Source: Comtrade (United Nations). Figure III Changes in Japan s share in world exports (precision machinery) (%) Lens/prism/mirror Liquid crystal devices and lasers Optical fibres, lens, mirror Oscilloscope 8) Lens/prism/mirror (HS9002) 2) Optical fibres, lens, mirror (HS9001) 3) Automatic adjuster including thermostat (HS9032) 7) Oscilloscope (HS9030) 5) Analysis equipments (HS9027) 6) Measurement/examination equipment (HS9031) )1 Liquid crystal devices and laser (HS9013) Precision machinery (HS90) 9) X-ray (HS9022) 10 10) Testing equipment for liquid, gas, and pressure (HS9026) 4) Medical equipments (HS9018) Camera (HS9006) Camera Notes: The top 10 items of export amount in 2011 (Numbers represent the ranking of export amount). Source: Comtrade (United Nations). The trend of other major countries will be examined next. The top ranked countries in the share of world exports in 2011 were: China first, Germany second, the United States third and Japan in fourth place (Figure III ) 10. By examining the trend of the top 10 countries, the confirmed fact is that China has rapidly been increasing its share and South Korea has also moderately been increasing its share (Figure III ). On the other hand, the share of many of the advanced countries has been declining, particularly the United States share has greatly been declining. China and South Korea were selected from the emerging countries and the United States and Germany were selected from the advanced countries in order to examine the export outlooks for each respective country. Furthermore, the trend within general machinery, electrical machinery, etc in which Japan s share has declined is also examined. 10 The export amount ranking and the share in world exports were calculated with the data by Comtrade, United Nations. A slight difference may arise due to the differences of database, such as foreign exchange rate, countries/regions. 25

26 Figure III Share of the major countries in world exports (in 2011) Figure III Changes in the share of the major countries in the exports (South Korea) The case of South Korea will be looked at first. South Korea has been increasing its share in world exports and the export value itself has a tendency to increase. Looking at the top 10 items in the export value as the major export items, the export value of the electrical machinery is outstanding followed by that of motor vehicles and general machinery (Figure III ). Looking at the higher ranked items in trade surplus, the trade surplus in motor vehicles and electrical machinery is large (Figure III ). As regards to trade of general machinery, however, its import amount is large as well as export amounts that resulted in a narrowed surplus. 26

27 Figure III Changes in the export value by major export items of South Korea Figure III Changes in trade surplus in the major items of South Korea The share of South Korea in world exports has been gradually increasing in the 2000s. Among the major export items of South Korea, not only an increase in the share of motor vehicles, rapid increase in the share of precision machinery is outstanding (Table , Figure III ). The share of electrical machinery had been increasing through the 1990s and the 2000s, and it has remained stable 27

28 since then. Table Share of the major export items of South Korea in world exports (in 2011) Rank Items Trade amount (Billion dollar) Share in the world exports Electrical machinery (HS85) Automobile (HS87) General machinery (HS84) Mineral-related fuels (HS27) Precision equipment (HS90) Plastic (HS39) Iron and steel (HS72) Organic chemical products Iron and steel products (HS73) Lubber (HS40) Total export amount Notes: 1. The top 10 items (78.1% of exports) in the export amount in 2011 by HS 2 digit code. 2. Ships (HS89) is excluded because it includes ship with a flag of convenience. Source: Comtrade (United Nations). Share (%) Figure III Share of the major export items of South Korea in world exports The details of the share of South Korea will be looked into in the items of general machinery, electrical machinery, motor vehicles and precision machinery in which Japan s share has declined. Among the major items of general machinery (top 10 items in export amount of general machinery), bulldozers has been increasing its share, while automatic data processing machines (personal computers, etc.) has been greatly declining its share (Figure III ). 28

29 Figure III South Korea s share in world exports (general machinery in 2011) Among electrical machinery, although wireless telephones and video/digital cameras have occupied a large share, a big fluctuation has also been seen in their trend (Figure III ). The shares of integrated circuits and wire equipment parts have seen an upward trend in the 2000s. Figure III Changes in South Korea s share in world exports (electrical machinery) Among motor vehicles, the share of passenger cars and automobile parts have increased (Figure III ). mortor vehicles for transport of ten or more peoples (such as buses) have occupied a large share, but its amplitude is big. 29

30 Figure III Changes in South Korea s share in world exports (motor vehicles) Among precision machinery which has shown rapid expansion in its share, increased share of liquid crystal devices andoptical fibres is remarkable (Figure III ). Figure III Changes in South Korea s share in world exports (precision machinery) (China) Taking a look at the case of China, the export value in China has been increasing rapidly, especially the growth in electrical machinery and general machinery are outstanding (Figure III ). As for trade surplus, general machinery has greatly increased, followed by that of electrical machinery and clothes (Figure III ). 30

31 Figure III Changes in the export value by major export items of China Figure III Changes in trade surplus by major export items of China China s share in world exports has been growing consistently. Looking at the trend of the major export items (top 10 items in the export amount), the share of a wide variety of product items not only light industry products including clothes and furniture but also electrical machinery and general machinery have been increasing (Table , Figure III ). Thus, China has reached extremely high level in world exports including clothes. For example, China occupies about 40 % in clothes/shoes and about 20 % in electrical machinery/general machinery of world exports. 31

32 Table Share of the major export items of China in world exports (in 2011) Rank Items Trade amount Share Share in the world exports (Billion dollar) (%) Electrical machinery (HS85) General machinery (HS84) Clothes (knit fabric/clothes fabric) (HS61) Clothes (except knit fabric/clothes fabric) (HS62) Prevision equipment (HS90) Furniture (HS94) Iron and steel products (HS73) Automobile (HS87) Plastic (HS39) Shoes (HS64) Total export amount 1, Notes: 1. The top 10 items (65.9% of exports) in the export amount in 2011 by HS 2 digit code. 2. Ships (HS89) is excluded because it includes ship with a flag of convenience. Source: Comtrade (United Nations). Figure III Changes in share of the major export items of China in world exports Looking at the trend of the major items in general machinery in China, the share has increased rapidly in many of those items, especially the share of air conditioners occupied roughly a half and automatic data processing machines (personal computers) has occupied about 30 % of world exports respectively (Figure III ). 32

33 Figure III Changes in China s share in world exports (general machinery) An increase in the share of major items in electrical machinery is also remarkable. Wireless telephones, video/digital cameras, printed circuits, IT-related products such as semiconductors, along with household electric appliances including water heaters have been increasing their share (Figure III ). Figure III Changes in China s share in world exports (electrical machinery) Among motor vehicles related items, the share of bicycles has been high, and the share of motor cycles as a whole and in parts has also been increasing (Figure III ). 33

34 Figure III Changes in China s share in world exports (motor vehicles) Among precision machinery, the share of liquid crystal devices, optical fibres, glasses, and lens/prism/mirrors have been increasing. Especially the increase in the share of liquid crystal devices is remarkable (Figure III ). Figure III Changes in China s share in world exports (precision machinery) (Germany) Looking at the major export items in Germany, shares of general machinery, motor vehicles, and electrical machinery are outstanding (Figure III ). Although the export value had greatly declined after the Lehman Shock, it has been recovering. As to the trade surplus trend, those of general machineries and motor vehicless are outstanding (Figure III ). On the other hand, the import of 34

35 electrical machineries is large as well as the export that resulted in a narrowed surplus. Figure III Changes in the export value by major export items of Germany Figure III Changes in Trade surplus by major export items of Germany Germany s share in world exports has been slightly declining. Looking at the major items, an increase is seen in the share of motor vehicless and aircrafts. The shares of general machinery and electrical machinery have been slightly declining, but have remained stable since 2000 (Table , Figure III ). The share of pharmaceutical products has also stayed high. 35

36 Table Share of the major export items of Germany in world exports (in 2011) Rank Items Trade amount (Billion dollar) Share (%) Share in the world exports General machinery (HS84) Automobile (HS87) Electrical machinery (HS85) Pharmaceutical products (HS30) Precision equipment (HS90) Plastic (HS39) Aircraft (HS88) Iron and steel (HS72) Iron and steel products (HS73) Mineral-related fuels (HS27) Total export amount 1, Notes: The top 10 items (66.3% of exports) in the export amount in 2011 by HS 2 digit code. Source: Comtrade (United Nations). Figure III Changes in shares of the major export items of Germany in world exports (%) Automobile Pharmaceutical products General machinery Total Electrical machinery Automobile (HS87) Aircraft (HS88) Pharmaceutical products (HS30) Precision equipment (HS90) General Machinery (HS84) Plastic (HS39) Iron and steel products (HS73) Total Iron and steel (HS72) Electrical machinery (HS85) Mineral-related fuels (HS27) Notes: The top 10 items in the export amount in 2011 by HS 2 digit code. Source: Comtrade (United Nations). As for general machinery, the share of major items shows a relatively stable trend 11. The share of gearbox s and engine parts is high (Figure III ). Among electrical machinery, the share of transformers has been increasing, and that of circuit switches and electric motors/movers have remained stable, but that of integrated circuits, switch/power board parts have been decreasing (Figure III ). 11 The share of printing machinery (HS8443) greatly declined in 2007, due to code revision. Duplicators, faxes and other parts were added to this category in the 2007 revision, thus accurate statistics are not available. 36

37 Figure III Changes in Germany s share in world exports (general machinery) Figure III Changes in Germany s share in world exports (electrical machinery) Among motor vehicles, the share of passenger cars has been increasing moderately (Figure III ). The share of automobile parts has remained stable. 37

38 Figure III Changes in Germany s share in world exports (motor vehicles) Among the major items of precision machinery, Germany s top export is medical equipment, which has remained stable along with x-ray and measurement/examination equipment s have maintained a higher in shares (Figure III ). On the other hand, the share of liquid crystal devices has been declining. Figure III Changes in Germany s share in world exports (precision machinery) 38

39 (US) Looking at the trend in the United States exports, general machinery, electrical machinery and motor vehicles occupy a large part of the export value (Figure III ). Drastically declined after the Lehman Shock, the United States exports have been recovering since then. As regards to trade surplus, aircraft s has been outstanding, followed by those of grain, seed/fruits, and plastics, etc (Figure III , Figure III ). Figure III Changes in the export value by major US export items Figure III Trade surplus by major US export items 39

40 The United States share in world exports has been moderately declining (Table ). Looking at the major export items, the share of aircraft s has remained high. However, a wide variety of items including general machinery, electrical machinery, motor vehicles, precision machinery and organic chemical products, etc. have been declining (Figure III ). Table Share of the major US export items in world exports (in 2011) Rank Items Trade amount (Billion dollar) Share (%) Share in the world exports General machinery (HS84) Electrical machinery (HS85) Mineral-related fuels (HS27) Automobile (HS87) Aircraft (HS88) Precision equipment (HS90) Precious stones, precious metal (HS71) Plastic (HS39) Organic chemical product (HS29) Medical equipment (HS30) Total export amount 1, Notes: 1. The top 10 items (67.2% of exports) in the export amount in 2011 by HS 2 digit code. Source: Comtrade (United Nations). Figure III Changes in shares of the major US export items in world exports Among general machinery, a moderate decline is seen in the their top export share of automated data procession machines, along with the decline in the share of gas-turbines and loading machinery parts which had a high market share (Figure III ). 40