25 Tourism. Figure 25.1

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1 1. Demographic trends 25 Tourism Tourism had been rising steadily in the Asia-Pacific region until 2008 when, following with global trends, there was a fall in demand, with implications for some of the region s developing economies. Between 2007 and 2008, the global growth in international tourist arrivals fell from 6.7 to 2.0% reflecting an extremely volatile and unfavourable global economy. As the world comes out of recession, tourism growth is also likely to be modest in This was an unexpected reversal. Over the period , tourism continued to experience steady growth, of 4.2% per year, confirming its status as the world s largest growth industry. Between 2006 and 2007, international tourist arrivals increased by 6.7% to 900 million. All the regions registered increases, and the Asia-Pacific region led the ranking with a 10.4% increase. Growth in Africa was 9.9% while in Latin America and the Caribbean it was 3.2%. The two mature tourism markets North America and Europe experienced contrasting performances. While North America recorded a sharp increase of 6.7%, Europe, the world s largest destination, posted only 4.4% growth. Between 1995 and 2007, the Asia-Pacific region s share of total arrivals increased from 18.7 to 25.7%. Steady growth was also recorded in Africa: over the same period, its share grew from 4.2 to 6.0%. North America and Europe, on the other hand, despite increases in their absolute number of tourist arrivals, saw their shares of the market decline. Within the Asia-Pacific region, the strongest performance was in the South and South-West Asia subregion, with a hefty increase in tourist arrivals in 2007 of 14.4%. This growth was sustained by the robust performances of Nepal (+37.2%), Turkey (+17.6%), India (+14.3%) and Maldives (+12.3%). The South-East Asia subregion, which used to be the region s leader, became the second best Figure 25.1 Shares in international tourist arrivals, global regions, Percentage Europe Asia-Pacific N Am LAC Africa performer with a 11.7% increase. A double-digit increase in visitors was recorded in Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Viet Nam. The recovery in Indonesia was mainly boosted by the resurgence of demand for travel to Bali. By contrast, the results for Thailand (+4.6%) and the Philippines (+8.7%), although positive, were rather modest. Thailand has been affected by security concerns, while the Philippines has suffered mainly from supply constraints, particularly in terms of airline capacity. In the East and North East-Asia subregion, Macao, China, led the growth in tourist arrivals for the second year, with an increase of 21.1% in China s growth in arrivals (+9.6%) also contributed to the subregion s continuing high performance. Indeed, in recent years China has become a world tourism leader, both inbound and outbound. Since 1995, tourist departures from China have grown tenfold. Among the beneficiaries of China s outbound travel growth were Japan with a 13.8% increase of visitors in 2007 and Hong Kong, China, with an 8.4% increase. Tourist arrivals in the Republic of Korea grew only by 2.2% in 2006, but 179

2 Figure 25.2 International tourist departures, selected countries, Asia and the Pacific, 1995 and 2007 Hong Kong, China China Russian Federation Japan Republic of Korea India Turkey Singapore Australia Thailand Bangladesh New Zealand Thousand people by 4.8% in 2007, probably as a result of an increased marketing campaign. The North and Central Asia subregion also had a solid performance, averaging a 7.7% annual growth in arrivals over the period Three major countries contributed to this. Between 2000 and 2007, Kyrgyzstan saw its tourist arrivals growing from a mere 59,000 arrivals to 1.5 million in Over the same period there were also annual increases in Kazakhstan, by 14.8% and in Azerbaijan by 8.4%. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the countries in this subregion have taken steps to promote themselves as emerging tourism destinations. The growth in arrivals has been accompanied by a large growth in income. Between 1995 and 2007 worldwide receipts from international tourism more than doubled to $1,028 billion. As in the previous years, Europe received almost half ($466.9 billion) of world revenue, while almost one quarter ($241.7 billion) went to Asia and the Pacific. Between 2000 and 2007, the region increased its share of global tourism receipts from 19.1 to 23.5%, consolidating its position as the second-highest tourism earner. Tourism can have a huge economic impact as visitors spend money on accommodation, food and drink, and local transportation. Within the Asia-Pacific region, several countries depend to a substantial extent on tourism. For example, in the Pacific island developing economies as a group, the share of tourism in their GDP averaged 11.9% in 2006, ranging from around 20% in Fiji, French Polynesia and Samoa to 57.1% in Palau. Maldives is also another developing island destination, whose dependence is particularly high. Its revenue from tourism represents more than half of its GDP. In Macao, China, the tourism sector continues to Figure 25.3 International tourism receipts, percentage of GDP, selected countries, Asia and the Pacific, 1995 and 2007 Maldives Vanuatu French Polynesia Samoa Cambodia Kyrgyzstan Malaysia Hong Kong, China Thailand Tonga Singapore Lao PDR New Zealand Philippines Armenia Turkey Australia Marshall Islands New Caledonia Bhutan % of GDP expand thanks to the continuous development of new hotels and casinos: by 2006 tourism accounted for 70% of GDP. Within South-East Asia, Cambodia continues to successfully capitalize on its main asset, the famous World Heritage cultural site of Angkor Wat. As a result, over the period tourism contributed on average 14.8% of its GDP. By contrast, in the Lao People s Democratic Republic, between 2006 and 2007, the share of tourism in its GDP declined from 6.9 to 4.6%. However, this result could be misleading because, between 2000 and 2007, international tourism receipts increased in absolute terms, from $114 million to $189 million suggesting that the country is diversifying its economy. In Thailand, tourism successfully recovered from the 2004 tsunami disaster. Indeed, between 2005 and 2007 the revenue from tourism increased from 6.9 to 8.4% of GDP, returning to its 2000 level. Malaysia too made progress, between 2006 and 2007, tourism s share of GDP rose from 7.9 to 9.0%. In terms of source markets, international tourism came largely from the traditional industrialized countries of Europe and the Americas. However, over recent years, with rising disposable incomes, many Asia-Pacific emerging economies have shown fast growth. In 2007 outbound tourism from North and Central Asia recorded a significant gain (+15.9%) spearheaded 180

3 by Kazakhstan (23.2%) and the Russian Federation (+17.8%). More tourists are also coming from South and South-West Asia (+12.3%), from countries such as India (+17.3%), and from Turkey (+8%). In the East and North-East Asia subregion outbound tourism increased by 10.9% with China increasing by 18.6% and reinforcing its position as one of the world s leading sources of tourists. International tourist arrivals (thousands) Refers to the number of International Tourist Arrivals taking into account the following considerations: (1) Data refer exclusively to tourists (overnight visitors): a visitor who stays at least one night in a collective or private accommodation in the country visited. Same-day visitors are not included. (2) data refer to the number of arrivals and not to the number of persons. The same person who makes several trips to a given country during a given period will be counted as a new arrival each time, as well as a person who travels through several countries on one trip is counted as a new arrival each time. Aggregates: Calculated by ESCAP as the sum of individual country values. Missing data have been imputed. Source: World Bank, World Development International tourist departures (thousands) The number of departures that people make from their country of usual residence to any other country for any purpose other than a remunerated activity in the country visited. Aggregates: Sum of individual country values. Missing data have been imputed. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. Online database accessed on 10 October International tourism receipts (million US dollars; percentage of GDP) The receipts earned by a destination country from inbound tourism resulting from expenditure made by visitors from abroad, on lodging, food and drinks, fuel, transport in the country, entertainment, shopping, etc. Aggregates: Calculated by ESCAP as the sum of individual country values (total receipts) and using GDP in US dollars as weight. Missing data for some countries and years have been imputed. Source: World Bank, World Development Outbound tourism expenditures (million US dollars; percentage of GDP) The expenditure incurred by people travelling from their country of usual residence to any other country for any purpose other than a remunerated activity in the country visited: on lodging, food and drinks, fuel, transport in the country, entertainment, shopping, etc. Aggregates: Calculated by ESCAP as the sum of individual country values (total expenditures) and using GDP in US dollars as weight. Missing data for some countries and years have been imputed. Source: World Bank, World Development 181

4 25.1 International tourists Arrivals Departures Thousands Thousands East and North-East Asia China DPR Korea Hong Kong, China Japan Macao, China Mongolia Republic of Korea South-East Asia Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Timor-Leste Viet Nam South and South-West Asia Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Iran (Islamic Rep. of) Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Turkey North and Central Asia Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Russian Federation Tajikistan 4 6 Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Pacific American Samoa Australia Cook Islands Fiji French Polynesia Guam Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia (F.S.) Nauru New Caledonia New Zealand Niue Northern Mariana Islands Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Asia and the Pacific LLDC LDC ASEAN ECO SAARC Central Asia Pacific island dev. econ Low income Middle income High income Africa Europe Latin America and Carib North America Other countries/areas World

5 25.2 Tourism receipts and expenditures International tourism receipts Outbound tourism expenditures Million US dollars % of GDP Million US dollars % of GDP East and North-East Asia China DPR Korea Hong Kong, China Japan Macao, China Mongolia Republic of Korea South-East Asia Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Timor-Leste Viet Nam South and South-West Asia Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Iran (Islamic Rep. of) Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Turkey North and Central Asia Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Russian Federation Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Pacific American Samoa Australia Cook Islands Fiji French Polynesia Guam Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia (F.S.) Nauru New Caledonia New Zealand Niue Northern Mariana Islands Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu Asia and the Pacific LLDC LDC ASEAN ECO SAARC Central Asia Pacific island dev. econ Low income Middle income High income Africa Europe Latin America and Carib North America Other countries/areas World