INDEX FOR RISK MANAGEMENT RESULTS 2015

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1 INDEX FOR RISK MANAGEMENT RESULTS 2015

2 INFORM 2015 INFORM MEASURES THE RISK OF HUMANITARIAN CRISES AND DISASTERS IN 191 COUNTRIES COUNTRY RISK 3 YR TREND Afghanistan 7.88 æ Albania 2.61 à Algeria 4.64 à Angola 4.81 æ Antigua and Barbuda 2.65 æ Argentina 2.65 à Armenia 3.25 à Australia 1.85 æ Austria 1.70 à Azerbaijan 4.59 à Bahamas 2.16 à Bahrain 1.21 à Bangladesh 6.01 à Barbados 1.88 à Belarus 2.21 à Belgium 1.36 à Belize 3.03 à Benin 4.34 æ Bhutan 3.74 à Bolivia 3.66 à Bosnia & Herzegovina 3.26 à Botswana 2.93 à Brazil 3.40 à Brunei Darussalam 0.76 à Bulgaria 2.46 à Burkina Faso 4.42 æ Burundi 5.44 à Cambodia 4.61 à Cameroon 4.30 à Canada 2.71 à Cape Verde 2.78 à Central African Republic 8.16 ä Chad 6.84 æ Chile 3.12 à China 4.38 æ Colombia 5.46 à Comoros 3.41 à Congo 4.53 æ Costa Rica 2.83 æ Côte d Ivoire 4.92 æ COUNTRY RISK 3 YR TREND Croatia 1.95 à Cuba 2.39 à Cyprus 2.47 ä Czech Republic 1.70 à Denmark 0.86 à Djibouti 4.49 æ Dominica 2.21 à Dominican Republic 3.85 à DPR Korea 4.10 à DR Congo 7.00 æ Ecuador 4.25 à Egypt 4.64 ä El Salvador 3.67 à Equatorial Guinea 2.38 æ Eritrea 4.62 à Estonia 0.98 à Ethiopia 6.41 à Fiji 3.82 à Finland 0.31 à France 2.29 æ FYR Macedonia 2.38 æ Gabon 3.16 æ Gambia 3.24 à Georgia 4.22 à Germany 1.76 à Ghana 3.04 æ Greece 2.37 à Grenada 2.46 à Guatemala 5.18 ä Guinea 4.84 à Guinea-Bissau 4.24 æ Guyana 2.86 à Haiti 6.05 æ Honduras 3.91 à Hungary 1.86 à Iceland 1.08 à India 5.66 æ Indonesia 4.85 à Iran 5.04 à Iraq 7.01 à COUNTRY RISK 3 YR TREND Ireland 1.39 à Israel 2.61 æ Italy 2.34 à Jamaica 3.13 à Japan 2.23 à Jordan 3.97 à Kazakhstan 2.34 à Kenya 6.21 à Kiribati 3.05 ä Kuwait 2.31 à Kyrgyzstan 3.64 æ Lao PDR 4.31 à Latvia 1.30 à Lebanon 4.80 à Lesotho 3.83 à Liberia 3.61 à Libya 5.65 à Liechtenstein 1.29 à Lithuania 1.37 à Luxembourg 0.92 à Madagascar 4.81 à Malawi 4.13 à Malaysia 3.04 à Maldives 1.05 à Mali 6.73 æ Malta 0.26 à Marshall Islands 2.33 ä Mauritania 5.20 æ Mauritius 2.87 à Mexico 4.60 à Micronesia 2.86 à Mongolia 2.97 à Montenegro 2.22 à Morocco 3.29 à Mozambique 5.74 æ Myanmar 6.77 à Namibia 3.75 à Nauru 2.30 à Nepal 5.25 æ Netherlands 1.37 à 2

3 INFORM 2015 INFORM is a new way to measure the risk of humanitarian crises and disasters. INFORM can help identify where and why a crisis might occur, which means we can reduce the risk, build peoples resilience and better prepare for when crises do happen. INFORM is... Available for 191 countries Free and open to all Based on the best methods and regularly updated You can use INFORM to. Prioritise countries by risk, or any of its components Decide how best to reduce risk Monitor risk trends INFORM can be adapted......for your organisation or region and the same methodology can be used for national and regional risk assessment. 4

4 HOW IT WORKS INFORM simplifies a lot of information about risk. It uses 50 different indicators to measure hazards and peoples exposure to them, vulnerability, and the resources available to help people cope. INFORM creates a risk profile for every country. Each has a rating between 0 and 10 for risk and all of its components, so its easy to compare. Components of risk covered by INFORM INFORM Dimensions Hazard & exposure Vulnerability Lack of coping capacity Categories Natural Socio- Vulnerable Human Institutional Infrastructure economic groups Components Earthquake Tsunami Flood Tropical cyclone Drought Current conflict intensity Projected conflict risk Development & deprivation (50%) Inaquality (25%) Aid dependency (25%) Uprooted people Other vulnerable groups DRR Governance Communication Physical infrastructure Access to health system Get the results... INFORM results are available at where you can: download a spreadsheet with all the results, calculations and source data; view and print country profiles; explore the data interactively; and find out more about how INFORM works and how you can use it. 5

5 INFORM YEAR TRENDS IN RISK INFORM results are always available for at least five years, making it easy to analyse risk trends. These charts compare INFORM 2015 to INFORM 2011 to show how risk has changed globally over the last five years VERY HIGH 4.64 HIGH Categories based on quantities Increasing risk MEDIUM LOW Number of countries at each risk score in 2011 and 2015 (intervals of 0.2 on INFORM RISK INDEX) YEAR INFORM RISK TRENDS BY REGION Africa (54) Americas Asia (48) Europe (40) Oceania (14) World (191) (35) Significant increase (>0.5) Stable (<0.5 / >-0.5) Significant decrease (<-0.5)

6 WHERE HAS RISK INCREASED AND DECREASED MOST? Yemen Central African Republic Highest increases in risk Highest decreases in risk Pakistan Mali 6.0 Uganda Syrian Arab Republic Libya Nepal Zimbabwe Algeria Congo China Thailand Kyrgyzstan Ukraine 3.0 Saudi Arabia Equatorial Guinea Cyprus YEAR INFORM RISK TRENDS BY WORLD BANK INCOME GROUP Low income (35) Lower middle income (47) Upper middle income (55) High income: non OECD (22) Significant increase (>0.5) Stable (<0.5 / >-0.5) High income: OECD (31) Significant decrease (<-0.5)

7 INFORM 2015 PRIORITISING USING RISK LEVEL AND TRENDS INFORM can be used to group countries based on their current level of risk and the trend over previous years. For example, large increases in countries already with high levels of risk could be used to prioritise them for increased crisis and disaster prevention, preparedness and response. Risk very high Central African Republic South Sudan Syria Nigeria Uganda Palestine Level of risk in 2015 High Inform Guatemala Egypt Ukraine Medium Low 1.0 The risk trend categories shown are determined by the risk level (Very high, high, medium, low) and the 3 year trend in INFORM ( ). Risk is considered to be increasing if the 2015 value is more than 0.3 higher than the 2013 value. Risk is considered to be decreasing in it is more than 0.3 lower Inform inform 2013 Stable Improving Worsening

8 Very high and decreasing Afghanistan Angola Côte d Ivoire DR Congo Haiti India Mali Mozambique Mauritania Niger Nepal Pakistan Philippines Papua New Guinea Sudan Chad Very high and stable Burundi Madagascar Bangladesh Myanmar Colombia Peru Algeria Senegal Ethiopia Solomon Islands Guinea Somalia Indonesia Timor-Leste Iran Turkey Iraq Tanzania Kenya Yemen Lebanon Zimbabwe Libya Very high and increasing Central African Republic Egypt Guatemala Nigeria Palestine South Sudan Syria Uganda Ukraine High and decreasing High and stable High and increasing Benin Burkina Faso China Congo Djibouti Guinea-Bissau Kyrgyzstan Nicaragua Rwanda Sierra Leone Sri Lanka Tajikistan Thailand Togo Viet Nam Azerbaijan Bolivia Brazil Bhutan Cameroon Comoros Dominican Republic Ecuador Eritrea Fiji Georgia Honduras Jordan Cambodia Lao PDR Liberia Lesotho Morocco Mexico Malawi Namibia DPR Korea El Salvador Serbia Swaziland Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Venezuela Vanuatu South Africa Zambia Republic of Moldova Russian Federation Medium and decreasing Costa Rica Palau Equatorial Guinea Panama FYR Macedonia Paraguay Gabon Samoa Ghana Saudi Arabia Israel Medium and stable Albania Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Belize Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Bulgaria Canada Cape Verde Chile Cuba Gambia Greece Grenada Guyana Italy Jamaica Kazakhstan Kuwait Malaysia Mauritius Micronesia Mongolia Nauru Oman Romania Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Seychelles Tonga Tunisia United States of America Medium and increasing Cyprus Kiribati Marshall Islands 13

9 INFORM 2015 WHY WE NEED INFORM 9 INFORM was developed in response to recommendations by numerous organisations (e.g. the World Bank, OCHA) to improve shared evidence for risk analysis, as well as the real demands of INFORM partner organisations. The more organisations that use INFORM, the more effective we will be at reducing suffering, increasing resilience and contributing to sustainable development. INFORM is the first open-source index specifically designed for analysing the risk of humanitarian crises and disasters. This chart shows a comparison between INFORM and the Human Development Index (HDI). The named countries are those with the greatest positive discrepancy between INFORM and the HDI. The high risk of crisis and disaster in these countries is not captured in the HDI, justifying the need for an additional tool like INFORM to support decisions on crisis and disaster prevention, preparedness and response. 8 Afghanistan Central African Republic 7 6 Iraq Syria Palestine Pakistan Sudan Yemen Myanmar Nigeria Kenya Banglasdesh INFORM Lebanon Libya Iran Colombia Ukraine Philippines * HDI values have been subtracted from 1. Chart includes 183 countries included in both INFORM and HDI. Somalia and South Sudan are not included in the HDI. Source: UNDP Human Development Index 2013

10 USE EXAMPLE: INFORM AND INTERNATIONAL DRR FINANCE Afghanistan One of the purposes of INFORM is to improve the evidence base for making decisions about the allocation of resources for crisis and disaster prevention, preparedness and response. Ideally, resources would be broadly aligned with risk to have maximum impact. This chart shows one simple example of how INFORM can be used to analyse resource allocation and funding. When compared with INFORM, international finance for disaster risk reduction (DRR) shows very little or no correlation. This suggests that spending on DRR does not always go to where the risk is highest. Unfortunately, data on DRR spending is quite poor, preventing a more detailed analysis Myanmar Yemen Ethiopia 6.00 Palestine INFORM Uganda Pakistan Niger India Nepal Zimbabwe Iran Kenya Bangladesh Guatamalia Haiti Philippines Peru Colombia Sri Lanka 4.00 Equador 3.00 Romania Tunisia Argentina International DRR financing per capita ($), total * DRR spending data from GFDRR and ODI (2013) Financing disaster risk reduction: a 20 year story of international aid. Figures are in total dollars per capita over the period for the 50 countries covered by the study. Guyana ($77.59 per capita) is not shown. 15

11 INFORM 2015 INFORM 2015 FULL RESULTS These tables show the results of INFORM to the category level for For the latest results, including component level, indicators and source data, visit the INFORM website: COUNTRY RANK RISK HAZARD Natural Afghanistan æ 8.71 à æ æ Albania à 1.99 à æ à Algeria à 6.16 à à à Angola æ 3.53 à æ à Antigua and Barbuda æ 3.39 à æ à Argentina à 3.00 ä à æ Armenia à 2.28 à à ä Australia æ 2.55 à æ à Austria à 1.35 à à à Azerbaijan à 3.82 à à æ Bahamas à 1.86 à à à Bahrain à 0.42 à à à Bangladesh à 7.94 à à à Barbados à 1.63 à à à Belarus à 1.35 à ä æ Belgium à 0.87 à à æ Belize à 2.47 à à à Benin æ 2.63 à æ à Bhutan à 2.67 à à æ Bolivia à 3.05 à à æ Bosnia and Herzegovina à 1.94 à à æ Botswana à 1.41 à æ à Brazil à 5.11 æ à ä Brunei Darussalam à 0.12 à à à Bulgaria à 2.29 à à æ Burkina Faso æ 2.15 æ æ à Burundi à 3.71 à à æ Cambodia à 4.37 à æ à Cameroon à 2.17 à à à Canada à 3.87 à æ à Cape Verde à 1.06 à æ à Central African Republic ä 7.78 ä ä à Chad æ 4.58 æ à à Chile à 4.78 à à æ China æ 7.17 à æ à Colombia à 6.43 à à æ Comoros à 1.01 à æ æ Congo æ 2.32 à æ à Costa Rica æ 2.82 à à æ Côte d Ivoire æ 2.78 æ à æ Croatia à 1.77 à à à Cuba à 2.85 ä à à Cyprus ä 1.37 à ä à Czech Republic à 1.11 à ä æ Human VULNERABILITY Socio-Economic Vulnerability Vulnerable Groups LACK OF COPING CAPACITY Institutional Infrastructure

12 KEY ä Increasing risk à Stable æ Decreasing risk COUNTRY RANK RISK HAZARD Natural Denmark à 0.39 à à à Djibouti æ 2.79 à æ æ Dominica à 1.18 à à æ Dominican Republic à 5.00 à à à DPR Korea à 2.34 à æ à DR Congo æ 5.42 æ à à Ecuador à 4.55 æ ä à Egypt ä 6.39 ä ä à El Salvador à 3.89 à à à Equatorial Guinea æ 0.54 æ à æ Eritrea à 2.22 à æ à Estonia à 0.34 à à æ Ethiopia à 5.34 à à à Fiji à 4.19 à à à Finland à 0.01 à à à France æ 2.69 æ æ à FYR Macedonia æ 1.94 à æ à Gabon æ 1.55 à æ æ Gambia à 0.88 à æ à Georgia à 4.07 à æ à Germany à 1.58 à æ à Ghana æ 1.37 æ à à Greece à 3.59 à à æ Grenada à 1.85 à æ à Guatemala ä 5.42 à ä à Guinea à 2.68 à à à Guinea-Bissau æ 1.64 à æ à Guyana à 1.40 à æ æ Haiti æ 4.99 ä æ æ Honduras à 3.90 à à ä Hungary à 1.86 à à æ Iceland à 0.75 à à à India æ 7.65 æ à à Indonesia à 6.98 à æ à Iran à 6.17 à à æ Iraq à 8.21 à ä à Ireland à 1.02 à à à Israel æ 3.14 æ à à Italy à 3.07 à à à Jamaica à 3.42 à æ à Japan à 5.89 ä à à Jordan à 2.32 à à à Kazakhstan à 2.92 à à à Kenya à 5.78 à æ ä Human VULNERABILITY Socio-Economic Vulnerability Vulnerable Groups LACK OF COPING CAPACITY Institutional Infrastructure 17

13 INFORM 2015 COUNTRY RANK RISK HAZARD Natural Kiribati ä 0.76 ä ä à Kuwait à 2.16 à à à Kyrgyzstan æ 4.08 ä æ à Lao PDR à 3.28 æ à æ Latvia à 0.51 à à æ Lebanon à 3.91 à ä æ Lesotho à 1.54 à à æ Liberia à 0.93 à æ æ Libya à 6.56 à à ä Liechtenstein à 1.01 à à æ Lithuania à 0.74 à à æ Luxembourg à 0.34 à à ä Madagascar à 3.62 à à à Malawi à 1.92 à æ ä Malaysia à 2.85 à à à Maldives à 0.13 à æ æ Mali æ 6.01 æ æ à Malta à 0.00 à à æ Marshall Islands ä 0.29 à ä à Mauritania æ 3.14 æ æ æ Mauritius à 3.35 à à æ Mexico à 8.34 à à à Micronesia à 0.75 à à æ Mongolia à 1.93 æ à æ Montenegro à 1.27 à à à Morocco à 2.58 à ä à Mozambique æ 4.38 à æ æ Myanmar à 8.22 æ à à Namibia à 1.90 à æ à Nauru à 0.56 à æ ä Nepal æ 5.48 æ æ æ Netherlands à 1.06 à à à New Zealand à 4.28 à æ à Nicaragua æ 3.82 à æ æ Niger æ 3.86 à æ æ Nigeria ä 6.83 à ä à Norway à 0.12 à à à Oman à 2.37 à à à Pakistan æ 7.60 æ æ à Palau æ 1.19 æ æ æ Palestine ä 6.83 ä à ä Panama æ 2.75 à à æ Papua New Guinea æ 2.75 æ æ à Paraguay æ 2.27 à æ æ Peru à 6.16 à à æ Philippines æ 8.35 à æ à Poland à 1.77 à à æ Portugal à 1.57 à à à Qatar à 0.51 à à à Republic of Korea à 2.45 à à æ Republic of Moldova ä 4.00 ä à æ Romania à 3.67 æ à à Human VULNERABILITY Socio-Economic Vulnerability Vulnerable Groups LACK OF COPING CAPACITY Institutional Infrastructure 18

14 KEY ä Increasing risk à Stable æ Decreasing risk COUNTRY RANK RISK HAZARD Natural Russian Federation ä 5.98 à ä à Rwanda æ 2.28 æ æ æ Saint Kitts and Nevis à 3.03 à à à Saint Lucia à 2.71 à à æ Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Human VULNERABILITY Socio-Economic Vulnerability Vulnerable Groups LACK OF COPING CAPACITY æ 0.87 à æ à Samoa æ 1.21 à à æ Sao Tome and Principe à 0.00 à à æ Saudi Arabia æ 2.71 æ æ æ Senegal à 3.44 à à æ Serbia à 3.24 à æ æ Seychelles à 1.61 à ä æ Sierra Leone æ 1.93 æ æ à Singapore à 0.02 à à à Slovakia à 2.46 à à æ Slovenia à 1.47 à à æ Solomon Islands à 2.65 à ä æ Somalia à 8.63 à æ à South Africa à 4.25 à à æ South Sudan ä 6.96 à ä ä Spain à 3.14 à à æ Sri Lanka æ 5.82 ä æ æ Sudan æ 7.29 æ æ æ Suriname à 0.57 æ æ æ Swaziland à 2.13 æ æ æ Sweden à 0.47 à æ æ Switzerland à 1.18 à æ æ Syrian Arab Republic ä 8.39 à ä ä Tajikistan æ 5.30 æ æ æ Tanzania à 3.99 à æ æ Thailand æ 5.56 æ æ æ Timor-Leste à 2.99 à æ æ Togo æ 2.12 à æ æ Tonga à 1.51 à à æ Trinidad and Tobago à 1.33 à à æ Tunisia à 2.33 ä à æ Turkey à 6.14 æ ä æ Turkmenistan à 2.57 æ ä à Tuvalu à 0.13 à æ æ Uganda ä 6.16 ä æ æ Ukraine ä 6.97 ä ä à United Arab Emirates à 1.59 à à à United Kingdom à 2.84 ä æ à United States of America à 5.71 à à à Uruguay à 0.92 à ä à Uzbekistan à 4.52 à à à Vanuatu à 3.14 à ä à Venezuela à 4.17 ä æ æ Viet Nam æ 5.26 æ æ à Yemen à 7.95 à æ ä Zambia à 2.02 à æ æ Zimbabwe à 3.45 à æ æ Institutional Infrastructure 19

15 INFORM is a collaboration of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee Task Team for Preparedness and Resilience and the European Commission. INFORM partners include: Other INFORM partners are welcome. Partners commit to do one or more of: 1) facilitate the use of their data in INFORM, 2) provide expert guidance for the INFORM initiative, 3) provide in-kind or financial support. For more information, go to Note: The geographical boundaries and names shown and the designations used in this report are not warranted to be error free nor do they necessarily imply official endorsement or acceptance by INFORM or any INFORM partner organisation. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this report. All information was believed to be correct as of November Please check www. inform-index.org for the latest results.

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