Calibration, performance and sensitivity analysis of the HEC-HMS HMS model

Transcription

1 Calibration, performance and sensitivity analysis of the HEC-HMS HMS model Juraj M. Cunderlik Slobodan P. Simonovic Assessment of Water Resources Risk and Vulnerability to Changing Climatic Conditions

2 Outline Introduction Model structure Model calibration Model performance Model sensitivity Discussion 2

3 Introduction Both event and cont models calibrated Verification and sensitivity analysis Project Report IV Model applications 3

4 Meteorologic component RAINFALL Rainfall loss component PERVIOUS SURFACE IMPERVIOUS SURFACE Direct runoff component LOSSES DIRECT RUNOFF Baseflow component River routing component AQUIFER BASEFLOW RIVER CHANNEL Reservoir component Event model structure RESERVOIR OPERATION BASIN OUTLET 4

5 Meteorological component EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PRECIPITATION Snow component SNOW ACCUMULATION AND MELT Precipitation loss component PERVIOUS SURFACE IMPERVIOUS SURFACE Direct runoff component LOSSES DIRECT RUNOFF Baseflow component River routing component AQUIFER BASEFLOW RIVER CHANNEL Reservoir component Continuous model RESERVOIR OPERATION structure BASIN OUTLET 5

6 Model calibration Stage A Stage B Stage C

7 Start UTRCA data Event model calibration Initial parameter values Manual calibration Initial parameter values HEC-HMS Soft constraints Optimization Hard constraints Performance evaluation End 7

8 Start Cont model calibration UTRCA data Initial parameter values HEC-HMS Soft constraints Manual calibration Hard constraints Performance evaluation End + snow model calibration + semiannual parameterization 8

9 Model performance Flow comparison graph Scatter graph Residual graph Objective function graph Goodness-of of-fit fit measures 9

10 Flow comparison graph 10

11 Scatter graph 11

12 Residual graph 12

13 Objective function graph 13

14 Goodness-of of-fit fit measures Percent error in peak (PEP) Percent error in volume (PEV) Lag-0 0 cross-correlation correlation coefficient (CORR) Relative BIAS (RBIAS) Relative RMSE (RRMSE) Relative peak-weighted RMSE (RPWRMSE) 14

15 Model performance Thames Byron

16 Event model performance Modeled Observed Calibration Q [m 3 s -1 ] Jul-00 5-Jul-00 7-Jul-00 9-Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul-00 16

17 Event model performance Modeled Observed Verification 200 Q [m 3 s -1 ] Jul Jul-00 2-Aug-00 4-Aug-00 6-Aug-00 8-Aug Aug-00 17

18 Event model performance PEPF [%] PEV [%] CORR [-] RBIAS [%] RRMSE [%] RPWRMSE [%] Calibration Verification Verification Well fitted peaks Quicker recessions Underestimated volumes Reservoir operation 18

19 Cont model performance Modeled Observed Calibration Q [m 3 s -1 ] Oct Jan Apr-84 6-Aug Nov Feb-85 2-Jun Sep Dec-85 19

20 1200 Cont model performance Modeled 1000 Observed Verification 800 Q [m3s-1] Oct Jan Apr-96 3-Aug Nov Feb May-97 7-Sep Dec-97 20

21 Cont model performance PEPF [%] PEV [%] CORR [-] RBIAS [%] RRMSE [%] RPWRMSE [%] Calibration Verification Snow accumulation and melt adequately reproduced Good simulation of low flow periods No systematic bias in the seasonal model Performance improved with increasing basin area and spatial detail Underestimated streamflow volumes 21

22 Model sensitivity Local sensitivity analysis Absolute sensitivity coefficient Factor perturbation method Goodness-of of-fit fit measures used as sensitivity functions 22

23 Model sensitivity Middle Thames Thamesford

24 70 Event model sensitivity Qdif [m 3 s -1 ] Lr 0 Bi Li Td % parameter decrease Tc St Rc Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul-00 24

25 Event model sensitivity Flood magnitude Clark s s storage coefficient, time of concentration and the loss parameters Peak volume loss parameters and the Clark s s storage coefficient 25

26 10 9 Tc St Bs Br Cs Ss If 8 Us Ts Sp Gs Gp Gc 7 PEPF [%] Cont model sensitivity PARAMETER CHANGE [%] 26

27 Cont model sensitivity Flood magnitude Clark s s storage coefficient and the parameters describing soil physical properties (infiltration rate and soil layer storage) Peak volume & low flows SMA groundwater layer parameters Overall goodness-of of-fit fit SMA groundwater layer parameters and baseflow parameters 27

28 Discussion 28