MINING IN LATIN AMERICA: Juan Carlos Guajardo B. Executive Director

Transcription

1 MINING IN LATIN AMERICA: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS Juan Carlos Guajardo B. Executive Director Tuesday, September 28, 2010

2 Cesco is a mining research center established in Santiago in Its members are professionals linked to mining and interested in public policies. Cesco annually gathers the world copper industry in Santiago during the Cesco Week. Cesco Dinner 2009 was attended by 1,700 world mining leaders. Cesco s 100% funds comes from its activities (Cesco Dinner, Conferences). Autonomy

3 Table of Contents Latin America and the Mining Industry Exploration Production Investment Trends and Perspectives Main Topics of Mining Development in Latin America Costs Water Energy Environment and communities

4 1. LATIN AMERICA AND THE MINING INDUSTRY

5 1.a EXPLORATION

6 Non-ferrous Exploration Budget Exploration Budgets by Region, 2009 (Total Budget of 1,846 companies for US$ 7,320 millions) United States 7% Pacific / Southeast Asia % Latin America 26% Australia 13% Ex-Soviet Union 7% Africa 15% Continental Asia 6% Canada 16% Europe / Others 4% Rest of the world 17% Source: Metals Economics Group.

7 Non-ferrous Exploration Budget (As a percentage of annual world exploration totals) Australia Canada United Africa Latin Pacific Rest of the States America SE Asia world Source: Metals Economics Group.

8 Chile and Peru Concentrate 40% of Copper Mining Prospects Pakistan United States Mexico Peru Canada 53% including Mexico and Argentina Source: Cochilco.

9 1.b PRODUCTION

10 60% Latin America Mining Production in the World % 48% 48% 40% 32% 30% 27% 24% 20% 16% 17% 20% 20% 21% 10% 4% 0% Crude steel Gold Nickel Iron Zinc Alumina Refined copper Bauxite Molybdenum Silver Mine copper Source: UNCTAD, Cochilco, World Steel Association.

11 L. A. in World Mining Production GOLD 2009 Peru Perú Brazil Brasil México Mexico Colombia Colombia Chile Chile Argentina Argentina Bolivia Bolivia MT TM of de gold oro fino Source: 2009 Year Book, Cochilco.

12 L. A. in World Mining Production SILVER 2009 Perú Peru 1 Mexico Mexico 2 Chile Chile 5 Bolivia Bolivia TM plata fina MT of silver Source: Cámara Minera de México

13 L. A. in Mining World Production MOLYBDENUM 2009 Chile 3 Peru Perú 4 México Mexico Source: World Mineral Production. TM MT de of molibdeno molybdenum fino

14 L. A. in World Mining Production NICKEL 2009 Colombia 6 Brasil Brazil 7 Venezuela Venezuela Metric tons Toneladas métricas Source: World Mineral Production.

15 L. A. in World Mining Production BAUXITE 2009 Brasil Brazil 2 Jamaica Jamaica 7 Venezuela Venezuela Toneladas Metric tons métricas Source: British Geological Survey.

16 Coal World Mining Production Colombia: It has a great potential for new projects; important coal reserves of 17 billion tons. Country China China United States India Australia South Africa Russia Indonesia Poland Kazakhstan Colombia MMTn (2007) 2,549 Mt 981 Mt 452 Mt 323 Mt 244 Mt 241 Mt 231 Mt 90 Mt 83 Mt 72 Mt Source: Coal World Institute

17 L. A. in World Mining Production COPPER 2009 Chile Perú / Perú Peru México Mexico Brasil / Brasil Brazil Argentina Thousands Miles de TM of MT Source: Cochilco 2009 Year Book.

18 Source: ICSG World Copper Factbook Latin America is the Region with the Largest Copper Production

19 ,4% 1995 Main Mining Companies and its share on the World Copper Production (thousands of MTs) ,7% ,3% * Attributable production 18% 2009* % ,8% 7,8% % ,7% 6,7% 6,3% 6,3% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 4,1% ,1% 5,3% ,6% 5.3% 5.1% Source: Presentation for The Future of Codelco Seminar, Brook Hunt, and Mining Financial Report, CESCO 1 T Fuente: Presentación en Seminario El Futuro de Codelco, Brook Hunt e Informe Financiero de la Minería CESCO 1 T 2009.

20 Chile Copper Production State-owned (Codelco) and Private Companies Producción Private production Privada Codelco Fuente: Source: Anuario Cochilco de 2009 Cochilco, Year Book.

21 Chile s Participation in World Copper Mine Production (% of world production) Actual Projected 40% Stage I Stage II Stage III 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Decreasing production Enclave perception Booming investment and production Significant national capacity development with Codelco World class standards provided by foreign investment Technology development Geology and exploration Diversification 0% Source: Prepared by CESCO

22 Annualized Copper Production by Company in Chile Tons December 2006 to June Chilean prod. % % 22% Codelco Escondida jun/10 may/10 abr/10 mar/10 feb/10 ene/10 dic/09 nov/09 oct/09 sep/09 ago/09 jul/09 jun/09 may/09 abr/09 mar/09 feb/09 ene/09 dic/08 nov/08 oct/08 sep/08 ago/08 jul/08 jun/08 may/08 abr/08 mar/08 feb/08 ene/08 dic/07 nov/07 oct/07 sep/07 ago/07 jul/07 jun/07 may/07 abr/07 mar/07 feb/07 ene/07 dic/06 Source: Financial Report, 2010 first quarter, CESCO

23 Annualized Copper Production by Company in Chile Tons December 2006 to June Antofagasta Minerals Anglo American Collahuasi Chilean prod. % 9% 9% 11% Source: Financial Report, 2010 first quarter, CESCO

24 Annualized Copper Production by Company in Chile Tons December 2006 to June Chilean prod. % % Candelaria 3% 3% El Abra Zaldívar % Cerro Colorado % Quebrada Blanca % Lomas Bayas jun/10 may/10 abr/10 mar/10 feb/10 ene/10 dic/09 nov/09 oct/09 sep/09 ago/09 jul/09 jun/09 may/09 abr/09 mar/09 feb/09 ene/09 dic/08 nov/08 oct/08 sep/08 ago/08 jul/08 jun/08 may/08 abr/08 mar/08 feb/08 ene/08 dic/07 nov/07 oct/07 sep/07 ago/07 jul/07 jun/07 may/07 abr/07 mar/07 feb/07 ene/07 dic/06 Source: Financial Report, 2010 first quarter, CESCO

25 1.c INVESTMENT

26 Mining Investment in Latin America Main countries with the largest mining investment Current decade Country Brazil Chile Peru Colombia Mexico Argentina Total projected investment US$ 57 billion US$ 50 billion US$ 40 billion US$ 24 billion US$ 21 billion US$ 12 billion 200 billion dollar investment, approximately Source: Prepared by CESCO from different sources.

27 Investment in Mining Projects Peru: I. Las Bambas Copper (Cu), gold (Au), and molybdenum. US$ 4.2 billion II. Pampa del Pongo Iron (Fe). US$ 3 billion Nanjinzhao Group Co. Ltd. Zibo III. Toromocho Copper (Cu). US$ 2.2 billion Chinalco IV. Quellaveco Copper (Cu) and molybdenum (Mo). US$ 1 billion Compañía Minera Quellaveco S.A. V. Minas Conga Gold (Au), copper (Cu) and silver (Ag). US$ 900 million Minera Yanacocha S.A. VI. Tambogrande Gold (Au), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), silver (Ag) and lead (Pb). US$ 400 million Manhattan Sechura S.A. VII. Alto Chicama Gold (Au), silver (Ag) and copper (Cu). US$ 370 million Barrick Misquichilca S.A. VIII. San Gregorio Zinc (Zn), lead (Pb), silver (Ag), bismuth (Bi) and cadmium (Cd). US$ 200 million Sociedad Minera El Brocal /Cominco. Argentina: I.Potasio Río Colorado Potassium chloride. US$ 4.5 Rio Tinto IV. Agua Rica Gold (Au) copper (Cu) and molybdenum (Mo). US$ 2.5 II. Alumbrera Gold (Au), copper (Cu) and doré. US$ II. El Pachón Copper (Cu) US$ 2.5 billon. Xstrata. II. Veladero Gold (Au) and silver (Ag). US$ 100 million. Homestake de Argentina S.A. III. Cerro Vanguardia Gold (Au) and silver (Ag). US$ 80 Vanguardia S.A. V. Cordón Esquel Gold (Au). This project s estimated investment is unknown. Chile: I.Expansión CODELCO Andina I. Copper (Cu). US$ 4.8 billion CODELCO II. Pascua-Lama Gold (Au) and silver (Ag). US$ 3 billion Barrick Gold Corp. (Canada 100%) II. Cerro Casale Gold (Au) and copper (Cu). US$ 4.2 billon Placer Dome Inc. (Canada 51%), Arizona Star Resources (Canada 25%), Bema Gold Corp. (Canada 24%). III. Escondida stage VI Copper (Cu) US$ 4.6 billion BHP Billiton (Australia/United Kingdom, 100%). IV. Ampliación Los Pelambres Copper (Cu). US$ 3.2 billon Antofagasta Minerals (Chile 60%), Japanese Consortium (40%). Source:

28 Investment in Mining Projects Mexico: US$ 4.2 billon I. Peñasquito Lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), silver (Ag), and copper (Cu) production US$ 149 million Thos deposit corresponds to Western Silver. II. Mulatos Gold production (Au). US$ 80 million Alamos Gold. III. El Chanate Gold production (Au). US$ 70 million Capital Gold. IV. Ocampo Gold (Au) and silver (Ag) production. US$ 220 million Gammon Lake Resources. V. Ixhuatán Gold (Au) and silver (Ag) production. Linear Gold Corp. Colombia: I. Cañón del Río Cauca Gold (Au), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), Zinc (Zn). II. Batolito de Piedrancha-Guachavéz Gold (Au), copper (Cu) III. Serranía de Lucas Gold (Au), silver (Ag), copper (Cu). IV. Tararia Gold (Au). V. Batolito de Mandé Copper (Cu), gold (Au), molybdenum (Mo). Bolivia: I. Mina Caracoles Tin (Sn). Empresa Minera Caracoles. II. Mina Huanuni Tin (Sn). Corporación Minera de Bolivia. III. La Joya Gold (Au) IV. San Cristóbal Silver (Ag). Minera San Cristóbal S. A. V. Don Mario Copper (Cu), Oro (Au). VI. Cerro Rico Silver (Ag), zinc (Zn), tin (Sn). Source:

29 US$ Millions us$ Millones Mining Inversión Investment Minerain en Peru Perú Mining Inversión investment Minerain en Chile Chile US$ us$ Millones millions Source: Minem, BCR, APOYO Consultoría, & Comité de Inversión Extranjera Chile

30 Start-up year Company Projects Investment (billion US$) Region 2015 CODELCO Andina Expansion to 230 KTPD (Stage II) 4.8 V 2015 Kinross, Barrick Cerro Casale 4.2 III Main Mining Investment Projects Chile (Above 1.5 billion dollars) 2018 BHP Billiton Escondida stage VI 4.6 II Post 2011 Antofagasta Minerals 2015 Teck Los Pelambres Expansion Quebrada Blanca Expansion 3.2 IV 3.0 I 2017 Teck Relincho 3.0 III 2013 Barrick Pascua-Lama 3.0 III 2014 New Gold (GoldCorp) El Morro 2.5 III 2015 Anglo American, Xstrata Collahuasi A. Stage II 2.45 I 2012 Anglo American Los Bronces Expansion 2.4 R.M CODELCO Norte Mina Ministro Hales 2.3 II 2010 Antofagasta Minerals Esperanza 2.3 II 2013 Pan Pacific Cooper (Lumina Copper) Caserones 2.0 III 2015 BHP Billiton Escondida Stage V 2.0 II 2018 CODELCO Chuqui Subterránea 2.0 II 2014 Minera Quadra Mining Chile Sierra Gorda 1.9 II 2017 CODELCO Teniente (new mine level) 1.5 VI - Lundin Mining Chilean-Argentinean Project: Las Flechas 1.5 III Source: Cesco

31 Foreign Investment in Chile and Current Decade Millions of dollars Otros Sectores Mineria % Other sectors Mining % Actual Current década decade Source: Based on date from Foreign Investment Committee

32 Mining Investment Projects BRAZIL Total investment: US$ 57 billion Fierro Níquel Alumina Bauxita Aluminio Fosfato Cobre Oro Agreg.* zinc niobio Caulin Iron Nickel Alumina Bauxite Aluminum Phosphate Copper Gold Aggr. Zinc Niobium Kaolin Source: Ibram

33 Mining Investment Projects Argentina Argentina Mining projection to 2015 Project Company Province Investment (US$ millions) Potasio Río Colorado Vale Mendoza 4,500 El Pachón Copper (Cu) Xstrata San Juan 2,500 Agua Rica Copper (Cu) Yamana Catamarca 2,500 Alumbrera Copper (Cu) Xstrata Hualfín District 1,275 Pascua Lama (25% of capital, according to reserve location) Barrick III Region / San Juan 675 Navidad Aquiline Chubut 450 Cerro Negro Goldcorp Santa Cruz 400 Sierra Grande MCC (China Metallurgical Corp.) Río Negro 100 Veladero (expansion) Barrick San Juan 100 Gualcamayo (expansion) Yamana San Juan 90 Cerro Vanguardia (expansion) AngloGold Ashanti Santa Cruz 80 Casposo Troy San Juan 45 Total Argentina Mining Investment to ,725 Source: Panorama Minero

34 2.- TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES

35 International Context 2009 was a year of hard onslaughts for the International Mining Industry Mexico faced stoppages and strikes, increase of energy cost, and prospecting projects were delayed. The world economy collapsed in the second half of 2008 and affected all industrial sectors The world recession affected all industrial sectors Se Tax reactiva debate el was debate reactivated tributario in en muchos many mining países mineros countries China s industrial strength bears the world s mineral demand Latin America remains a leader in attracting investments for mining exploration (26%) China se ha convertido en China la segunda has become economía the second world mundial, economy y primer and the productor first car producer de automóviles

36 International Context Consolidated Countries Peru Diversity and growth Communities and environment Mexico Silver and copper Growth based on exploration Brazil Chile Transition to a mature mining sector Copper mining growth based on expansions Scarce energy and water Very clear copper and non-metal mineral advantages Iron, nickel, and bauxite. (Graphite, manganese, tantalum, and niobium). Vale and Petrobras benefit from reforms. Brazil produces 46 industrial minerals, 22 metals, and 4 hydrocarbons.

37 International Context Emerging Countries Colombia Coal and nickel High potential, government commitment, country risk. Ecuador Oil Interesting mining potential, new mining law Possible community issues.

38 International Context Countries with different policies Venezuela, Bolivia, and Argentina More difficult situation for mining Government intervention with no clear focus on mining.

39 3. MAIN TOPICS MINING DEVELOPMENT IN LATIN AMERICA

40 3.a COSTS

41 Costs Strong increase in almost all items Common factors for the entire industry Particular factors in some countries Energy Water Perspectives: Slow reversion of rising trend on structural costs Difficulties to finds world class deposits Decreasing laws Cyclical costs will tend to be controlled Inputs and equipment.

42 Large-scale Mining Purchases in Chile and Copper Production Costs doubled in just four years Costs US$ Millones Millions Of US$ $ $ $ $ $ $ Miles de TM Thousands of TM $ $ Source: Mining Council and own estimate. Producción Production Costo

43 3.b WATER

44 Water Chile: Mining s water consumption is low at country scale (it concentrates in the north) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 77% 69% 18% 18% 5% 13% Mining Minero Sanitario Sanitary Agriculture Agrícola Antofagasta Total Country País Total Source: Based on Rodolfo Camacho s presentation (Average data for 2006).

45 Agua Water Water is relevant in northern Chile and southern Peru Underground water resources are limited to sustain mining expansions Water rights are paid up to 200 thousand dollars per liter/second Lack of information on water resources availability. Other countries such as Ecuador and central-northern Peru The problem is not the lack of the resource, but proving sustainability in the resource management. Perspectives: Sea water desalination plants, direct use of sea water, increasing recovery techniques.

46 3.c ENERGY

47 Energy Chile: Conversion of energy matrix to coal thermal plants and liquefied natural gas plants. Diesel has been the alternative during periods of very high cost. Perspectives: Interconnection of the country s southern and northern Central Interconnected System. Development of clean or renewable energy. Nuclear energy alternative should be considered.

48 3.d ENVIRONMENT AND COMMUNITIES

49 Significant subject for investment decisions in Peru, Argentina, and Ecuador, and it is growing in Chile and Brazil. Higher demands on mining. Permits are more and more difficult to get (delay). Examples: Low geopolitical risk but relevant environmental and communities issues Peru: Social responsibility, education, and health policies for the communities. Brazil: Mining deposits in indigenous land. Chile: Application of ILO Convention 169. Perspectives: Improving the mining industry s global image among the communities and public opinion. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR).

50 MINING IN LATIN AMERICA: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS Juan Carlos Guajardo B. Executive Director Tuesday, September 28, 2010