Property Sector Overview

Transcription

1 2012 i PROPERTY MARKET report research & forecast report apartment sector Property Sector Overview apartment sector New apartment projects were completed in the first quarter which added 4,273 new units and bringing the overall apartment supply in Jakarta to 101,776 units, a 18.7% Y-o-Y increase. The average price all completed apartments in the Jakarta area edged higher by 12% Y-o-Y to Rp13.62 million/sq m and the average price of completed apartment units in the CBD moved up by 11% Y-o-Y to Rp18.53 million/sq m. Supply The year 2012 began with 4,273 new completed units at five apartment projects. The addition brought the cumulative total of strata-title apartments to 101,776. In other words, the total supply during the quarter contributed as much as 4.31% of the total apartment supply in Jakarta. These 4,273 units or 16.37% of the total projected 26,098 units which will be list of completed new projects in 1q 2012 completed this year are scattered in the CBD, South, East, and West Jakarta. Furthermore, of the total supply coming this quarter, around 44.2% are considered middle- to low- and 38.2% are considered low-class developments (categorised as rusunami low-class multifamily housing), while the remaining 17.5% are middle- to upper-class. Development location region #units East Park Apartment (Tower B) KRT Radjiman East Jakarta 550 Green Palace Apartment (Tower L) Kalibata South Jakarta 630 Green Palace Apartment (Tower M) Kalibata South Jakarta 630 Green Palace Apartment (Tower N) Kalibata South Jakarta 630 Central Park Residence Tower Adeline S. Parman West Jakarta 350 Puri Park View (Tower A) Pesanggrahan, Meruya Utara West Jakarta 1,083 Thamrin Executive Residence MH Thamrin CBD 400 The early part of 2012 began with great optimism among developers as they launched several new projects, taking advantage of the growing property market and economy. Apart from the completed projects mentioned above, there were six apartment projects entering the ground-breaking stage during 2012 including The H Residence; Woodland Park Residence; The Hive Tamansari; Ciputra World 2 Jakarta; Setiabudi Sky Garden and Senopati Penthouse. Meanwhile, quite a few new projects ranging from the middle to upper classes scattered in five municipalities in Jakarta made early bird offers to potential buyers. These include new projects from reputable developers such as: Metro Park Residence (Agung Podomoro Group) and Aeropolis Residence (Intiland) both located in West Jakarta; The Heritage (Wika Realty) located in Central Jakarta; and Botanica Apartment (Pikko Group) located in South Jakarta. Other than that, the new line of developers includes The Aspen Residence (Harmas Jalesveva), L avenue Apartment (PT. Bintang Rajawali Perkasa), and The Royal Olive Residence (PT. AD Realty) located in South Jakarta; followed by Sudirman Terrace (PT. Tristar Gemilang Abadi) located in the CBD; and T - Plaza Residence (PT. Prima Kencana) located in Central Jakarta.

2 Apartment Sector Apartment Strata-title apartment distribution in several regions of jakarta Number of P rojects CBD Central Jakarta South Jakarta North Jakarta East Jakarta West Jakarta Colliers International p. 2

3 LIST OF UNDER CONSTRUCTION OF STRATA-TITLE APARTMENT apartment name location region developer name #units 2012 Regatta Rio de Janeiro Pantai Mutiara North Jakarta Badan Kerjasama Mutiara Buana (JO PT Intiland 110 Development & PT Global Ekabuana) Green Palace (5 Towers) Kalibata South Jakarta Agung Podomoro Group 3,150 Belmont Residence (Tower Everest) Kebon Jeruk West Jakarta Gapura Prima 553 Ambassade Residence (Tower A) Kuningan CBD PT Duta Regency 400 Senopati Suites Senopati South Jakarta PT Mahkota Asia Graha 103 Denpasar Residence (Tower Kintamani and Ubud) Satrio CBD Agung Podomoro Group 1,100 The Grove Rasuna Said CBD PT Bakrieland Development 416 Residence 8 at Senopati (2 Towers) Senopati South Jakarta Agung Sedayu Group 400 The Wave Rasuna Said CBD PT Bakrieland Development 1,900 Pancoran Riverside Pengadegan Timur South Jakarta PT Graha Rayhan Tri Putra (Riyadh Group) 1,900 Luxurious Raffles Residences at Ciputra World Jakarta 1 Satrio CBD PT Ciputra Property Tbk 88 St Moritz (The Presidential Suite Tower, The Puri Indah West Jakarta PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk 484 Ambassador Suite Tower & The Royal Suite Tower) Sentra Timur Residence (phase 2) Cakung East Jakarta PT Bakrieland Development 1,143 Menteng Square Matraman East Jakarta PT Bahama Development 1,500 Cervino Village Kasablanka South Jakarta Pakkodian 518 Puri Park View (2 Towers) Meruya Utara West Jakarta PT Pelaksana Jaya Mulia & PT Alam Jaya 2,000 Perkasa The Grove Suite Rasuna Said CBD PT Bakrieland Development 151 The Royal Springhill (Tower Marygold & Magnolia) Kemayoran Central Jakarta Springhill Golf Group 384 The East at Essence Darmawangsa Kebayoran South Jakarta PT Prakarsa Semesta Alam 244 Myhome Apartment at Ciputra World Jakarta 1 Satrio CBD PT Ciputra Property Tbk 136 Gading Nias Residence block Grand Emerald Kelapa Gading North Jakarta Agung Podomoro Group 747 One Park Residence Gandaria South Jakarta PT Intiland Development 379 Tamansari Semanggi Gatot Subroto CBD PT Wika Realty 1,400 Verde Condominium Rasuna Said CBD PT Farpoint Realty Indonesia 257 The H Tower Rasuna Said CBD PT Hutama Karya Realtindo 9 Season City (Tower C) Grogol West Jakarta Agung Podomoro Group Belmont Residence (Tower Montblanc) Kebon Jeruk West Jakarta Gapura Prima 350 Westmark Tanjung Duren West Jakarta Cowell Development 550 Kebagusan City (Tower B) S Parman West Jakarta Gapura Prima 588 GP Plaza Gatot Subroto CBD Gapura Prima 320 Pasar Baru Mansion (2 Towers) Pasar Baru Central Jakarta PT Trikarya Idea Sakti 520 Kemang Village (The Tiffany & The Infinity) Kemang South Jakarta PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk 415 Residence at Dharmawangsa Dharmawangsa South Jakarta PT Bina Puri Lestari 89 Sentra Timur Residence (Stage 2) Cakung East Jakarta PT Bakrieland Development 1,000 Green Bay Pluit Pluit North Jakarta Agung Podomoro Group 3,200 Green Lake Sunter Sunter North Jakarta Agung Podomoro Group 2,400 d Green Pramuka (Tower Faggio & Pino) Rawasari Central Jakarta PT Duta Paramindo 2,900 The Windsor (2 Towers) Puri Indah West Jakarta PT Antilope Madju Puri Indah 340 Pakubuwono Terrace (Tower I) Ciledug South Jakarta PT Selaras Mitra Sejati 750 The H Residence Cawang East Jakarta PT Hutama Karya Realtindo 505 p. 3 Colliers International

4 Despite having the lowest number of projects compared to other areas in Jakarta, East Jakarta is now starting to have more new development particularly in places like MT Haryono and Cawang. These areas are becoming popular most recently since there are newly launched projects targeting the middle to low segment. Developers are interested in developing these areas compared to other locations in East Jakarta because of their strategic location, having better infrastructure, and the proximity to the central business area. It is projected that over the next two years, there will be four apartment buildings along the MT. Haryono - Cawang corridor, adding 2,705 units targeting the middle to low segment. new apartment developments within the mt haryono - cawang corridor Development Projected year of operation location class #units The H Residence 2013 MT Haryono Middle Low 383 The Hive Tamansari 2014 DI Panjaitan Middle Low 422 Signature Park Grande 2014 MT Haryono Middle Low 1,100 Green Signature 2014 MT Haryono Middle Low 800 Thamrin Executive Residence MH Thamrin CBD 400 The supply of new apartment units during 2012 will be substantial, i.e. 26,098 units; in 2013, the strata-title apartment annual supply will be 14,788 units. According to our research, from there will be a total of 53,519 additional new units representing a more than 50% increase in the current total supply. Demand The vibrant economic projections for the country attributed to the rise of Indonesian sovereign debt to investment grade have brought good sentiments to the apartment market in Jakarta. During the first three months of 2012, the take-up rate for all marketed projects (including projects which are under construction but have been marketed) was 77.7%, up slightly from the previous quarter s 75.7%. In other words, there are around 21,251 unsold units in Jakarta of which 67.8% are scattered in the outside CBD area. average take-up rates of existing strata-title apartments region 2012 QoQ CBD South Jakarta Outside CBD The table above shows that the operating strata-title apartment buildings located in South Jakarta and the outside CBD area experienced an increase in take-up rates from the previous quarter. The majority of existing strata-title apartment buildings in the outside CBD area are middle-class projects. Several promotional programmes were offered like taking the moment of Chinese New Year during the quarter and other promotional campaigns like free holidays to Bali, gold rewards, cash vouchers (from Rp5 to 75 million), and electronic gadgets or furniture to furnish the apartment units are incentives provided to boost sales of apartments. The other major marketing enticement to accelerate sales is flexibility on terms of payment. Colliers International p. 4

5 average take-up rates of under construction strata-title apartments region 2012 QoQ CBD South Jakarta Outside CBD In the pre-sales activity of apartment projects under construction, there was a declining trend in the CBD area. In the CBD, the absorption of new apartment projects slowed down because many new projects from mostly the upper-class came into the market during the first three months of Meanwhile, in the South Jakarta area, the upper-class to luxury segment of under-construction projects is largely located in prime residential areas like Kebayoran Baru. One of the projects with good performance is Pakubuwono Signature, developed by Agung Podomoro where more than 95% of the total units are claimed to have been absorbed by the market. Other projects having the same condition are Senopati Penthouse, Senopati Suites, and Residence 8 at Senopati, all of which are located in a very strategic area close to the CBD and which recorded a sales rate above 65%. Furthermore, the outside CBD area enjoyed good performance mainly due to affordable prices. A large number of the projects are targeted at the middle class segment. This apartment segment is quite active in promoting their products in other cities of Indonesia like Bandung, Surabaya and Balikpapan, trying to capture local, potential, wealthy buyers. This strategy seems to work well because there are quite a few wealthy businessmen in rich cities outside of Java. unsold units and take-up rates of each segment of apartment 5, % Unsold (unit) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 80% 60% 40% 20% T a ke Up P r e- Sales 0 Low Middle Low Middle Up Upper Luxury 0% Unsold (unit) Take Up Pre-Sales (%) p. 5 Colliers International

6 Asking Price Given the relatively high sales rate of ongoing projects, the overall apartment market in Jakarta experienced a somewhat high price increase, from an average of Rp12.94 to million / sq m this quarter. Besides the good sales performance of under-construction projects, price increases were also driven by the influx of many upper-class projects which offer above average market prices which resulted in an overall price rise. average asking price of strata-title apartments based on region Rp20,000,000 Rp16,000,000 Rp12,000,000 Rp8,000,000 Rp4,000, CBD South Jakarta Non CBD Average The highest increases were at apartment projects located in the South Jakarta area, where the asking price was up by 12.8%, to an average of Rp14.48 million / sq m. This average increase was fuelled mostly by several new projects located in this area and targeted at the middle- to upper- and upper-class segment which impacted the overall price. Again, due to the influx of new projects offered at higher prices, the overall price in the outside CBD area also rose this quarter registering an increase of 7.5% over the last quarter. average asking price in different regions Average asking price in rp/sq m growth region 2012 QoQ (%) YoY (%) CBD 16,678,858 18,114,415 18,531, South Jakarta 12,126,412 12,844,135 14,485, Outside CBD 9,513,772 10,112,389 10,866, The same marketing strategies were still applied up to the reviewed quarter including flexible terms of payment. One of the marketing breakthroughs is combining a bank mortgage (the Indonesian term is KPA or Kredit Kepemilikan Apartment) and cash instalments. Providing cash in advance is always a typical problem of buyers of middle- to lower-class apartments and therefore the developers offer the buyers the opportunity to pay the down payment by cash instalments within 12 to 24 months while the monthly instalment is paid through the mortgage. Colliers International p. 6

7 Basically there are three payment methods of buying apartments, mortgages (KPA), cash instalments and hard cash. From our survey it was found that cash instalments is the most frequent method used (55 to 70% of buyers, ranging from the lower to upper segments). Most buyers opt for this because they have the capability to pay cash instalments and it offers simplicity, flexibility, and privacy (because they do not want to reveal their income). It is interesting to note that payment through a bank mortgage is not widely chosen even for lowerclass apartment projects. These units (the Indonesian term is rusunami ) were originally government-subsidised projects for the low to middle income levels, however the fact is that buyers of these apartments preferred to pay using cash instalments. This indicates that the target buyers have deviated because the fact is that buyers are not middle income occupiers but are investors. For buyers of middle to upper class apartments they may pay cash installment or hard cash because buyers are mainly those with strong financial capability and they do no want to endure the hassle of dealing with bank procedures. composition of payment methods for buying apartment units 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% KPA Hardcash Installment (12-36x) Low (Rusunami) Middle Upper comparison of kpa and cash installment payment period KPA (mortgages) Cash installment Payment Tenure Maximum of up to 15 years (depending on the age of applicant) Generally 1-3 years Requirements ID card, income statement and BI (Bank ID card and marriage certificate Central) checking account (if applicable) Typical Buyers Employees Traders and Businessmen The graphs follow give an overview of new apartment sales and price performance from middle to upper class. We take some samples of operating and under-construction apartment projects to show the price differences between the first launching price and the current price. This has been a common practice among developers where prices are always reviewed in accordance with the sales performance. p. 7 Colliers International

8 price differences between the first launching price and the current price for apartment middle to low class Apartment Located in Kebon Jeruk (2012 ; 840 unit ; 40% sold) Apartment Located in Fatmawati (; 526 unit ; 60% sold) Apartment Located in Latumenten ( ; 2,907 ; 70% sold) Rp0 Rp10,000,000 Rp20,000,000 Rp30,000,000 Current Price Initial Price for apartment middle to upper class Apartment Located in Gatot Subroto (2013 ; 320 unit ; 79% sold) Apartment Located in Kasablanka ( ; 890 unit ; 73% sold) Apartment Located in Thamrin ( ; 414 unit ; 98% sold) Rp0 Rp10,000,000 Rp20,000,000 Rp30,000,000 Current Price Initial Price for apartment upper class Apartment Located at Jl. Satrio (2012 ; 136 unit ; 80% sold) Apartment Located at Jl. Denpasar (2012 ; 1,100 unit ; 95% sold) Apartment Located in Gandaria (2012 ; 379 unit ; 70% sold) Rp0 Rp10,000,000 Rp20,000,000 Rp30,000,000 Current Price Initial Price Colliers International p. 8

9 Apartment For Lease (Serviced and Non-serviced) Supply The apartment for lease market saw only the opening of the 112-unit Centro City Serviced Apartments early this year. This serviced apartment project consists of only studio-type units. With the completion of this development, the cumulative supply for serviced apartments in the first three months of 2012 rose gently by 2.46% QoQ to 4,659 units. Meanwhile, the nonserviced apartment (apartments purely for lease), supply subsided due to the operational conversion of Taman Pasadenia Pulomas from previously being non-serviced apartments for lease to strata-title apartments for sale. With a total of 50 units, the owner of Taman Pasedenia Pulomas sold 45 units and kept the remaining five units for lease. Thus, with the addition of 112 units at Centro City Serviced Apartments and the reduction of 45 units at Taman Pasadenia Pulomas, the number of total apartments for lease is up this quarter to 8,079 units. cumulative supply of apartments for lease (serviced and non-serviced) 6,000 5,000 4,000 Unit 3,000 2,000 1, F 2013F 2014F 2015F Serviced Unserviced LIST OF future APARTMENT for lease (Serviced and non-serviced) projected year marketing apartment name location region of operation scheme #units 2012 Plaza Senayan (Tower C & D) Asia Afrika CBD Non-Serviced Ascott Kuningan Satrio CBD Serviced Somerset Kentjana Jakarta Pondok Indah South Jakarta Serviced Fraser World Jakarta 2 Satrio CBD Serviced 210 Demand In general, the apartments for lease market in Jakarta saw a minor drop in the occupancy rate from 76.1% to 75.1% this quarter. The occupancy level for non-serviced apartments slowed mildly during early 2012, when occupancy slowed by 0.93% to 73.8%. Similarly, occupancy levels for serviced apartments eased moderately during the quarter decreasing from 78.75% last quarter to 77.56% as some projects reported contract expirations with their tenants. p. 9 Colliers International

10 Geographically, apartments located in the CBD area captured the highest occupancy level compared to other areas although the occupancy level showed a minor drop QoQ to 84.4%. Compared to the occupancy performance in the outside CBD area that was only 66.5%, the CBD area is still the best location for renting apartments. In general, apartments for lease, either serviced or non-serviced, are occupied by expatriates who are looking for proximity either to the workplace or an international school. Therefore, the performance of apartments for lease in South Jakarta is much better despite having a minor drop in occupancy (76.2%) this quarter. Rental Rates While absorption rates showed a slightly downward trend, the average asking rental rate of apartments for lease saw a minor increase in this quarter, up to an average of US$13.93 from US$13.73/sq m/month in the previous quarter. The increase in the rental rate was largely experienced by the pre-eminent serviced apartments in the CBD, such as Shangri-La, Frasers, Ritz-Carlton, Kempinski, and the Ascott Group, with an average increase of US$100 - US$200/unit/month. As mentioned earlier in our previous report, several apartments for lease, especially serviced apartments, have anticipated adjusting the asking rental rates upward in response to inflation and to the increase in the regional minimum wage. average rental rates of apartment for lease $20.00 R ental Rate/sq m/month $16.00 $12.00 $8.00 $4.00 $ CBD South Jakarta Non CBD Average As most prominent apartments for lease reported an increase, the average rental rate for the CBD area improved mildly by less than 3% to US$18.18/sq m/month. The average rental rate in the CBD area was US$2,650 / unit. In the outside CBD, rental rates are relatively stable at US$8.81 / sq m / month. Similarly, apartments in South Jakarta area showed a minor increase of an average of US$12.43/sq m/month. Colliers International p. 10

11 jakarta 1q 2012 Outlook The prospects for the apartment market will remain favourable as long as underlying local market conditions and business confidence continue to be rosy. We do not expect too much land reform concerning the foreign ownership of Indonesian property but as long as the conducive business atmosphere can be maintained there is plenty of room for the apartment market to grow, particularly benefiting from the potential spending of wealthy Indonesians from the other rich provinces of Indonesia. As we predicted earlier, apartment prices will surge ahead this year and this has already proven to be the case in the early part of 2012 when the average apartment price went up albeit moderately. Price increases will not only be a result of the new and under-construction projects with above average market prices; they will also be impacted by the continued adjustments made by pre-selling apartment projects (i.e. apartments under construction but which have already been marketed). New projects in the CBD area will surely experience the most increases as land prices soar and in anticipation of the fuel price hike which will be implemented in six months, increasing construction costs which will be a significant factor in adjusting apartment prices. 522 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents United States: 147 Canada: 37 Latin America: 19 Asia Pacific: 201 EMEA: 118 $1.8 billion in annual revenue 1.3 billion square feet under management Over 12,300 professionals COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL INDONESIA: World Trade Centre 10th & 14th floor Jalan Jenderal Sudirman Kav Jakarta Indonesia tel FAX Michael Broomell Managing Director World Trade Centre 10th & 14th floor Jalan Jenderal Sudirman Kav Jakarta Indonesia tel ext 131 FAX Ferry Salanto Associate Director, Research World Trade Centre 10th & 14th floor Jalan Jenderal Sudirman Kav Jakarta Indonesia tel ext 134 FAX Copyright 2012 Colliers International The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has bee made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Accelerating success.