Multifamily Market Strengthens as Employers Add Workers

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1 Research & Forecast Report TUCSON METRO AREA MULTIFAMILY 2 Multifamily Market Strengthens as Employers Add Workers Key Takeaways > > Employment growth in Tucson closed 2 on an upswing. Approximately 5,6 new jobs were added in the fourth quarter, and 8,9 new positions were created in 2. Growth in 2 more than doubled the pace of expansion recorded in 2. > > ended 2 at 7.8 percent, basis points lower than one year ago. has been declining at a fairly steady pace even as new multifamily units have come online. > > With vacancy tightening, asking rents are on the rise. Average asking rents ended the year at $657 per month, 3 percent higher than one year ago. > > Sales of multifamily buildings slowed in the fourth quarter, but even after accounting for the slight dip in the final three months of the year, the total number of transactions in 2 surged 43 percent from 2 levels. The median price was approximately $33,1 per unit in 2, with cap rates averaging 6.7 percent. Tucson Metro Area Multifamily Market The Tucson multifamily market strengthened to close 2, due in large part to a local labor market that gained momentum in the second half of the year. Until the third quarter, local employers had been slow to expand payrolls, even as the national economy gained momentum. That pattern changed course beginning in the third quarter and employment growth accelerated in the final three months of the year. This payroll expansion has put the local multifamily market on firmer footing heading into 216, particularly as the pace of new inventory growth is slowing. The end result is that supply and demand are more closely aligned, with vacancy at its lowest point since 27. Market Indicators Relative to prior period Rents Transaction Activity Price Per Unit Cap Rates Summary Statistics Tucson Market Rate 7.8% Change from 2 (bps) - Per Month $657 Change from 2 3.% Median Sales Price Per Unit (YTD) Market 2 $33,1 Average Cap Rate 6.7% Market 2

2 Tucson Metro Area Multifamily Market (continued) The Tucson multifamily investment market is gaining momentum as property performance improves. Sales velocity has increased in four of the past five years, and the number of properties that traded in 2 reached an eight-year high. Cap rates appear to have settled into a range approximately 1 basis points higher than in nearby Phoenix. One trend that began to take shape in late-2 that highlights the growing strength of the local market was the sale of new, high-quality assets to institutional and out-of-state investors. Transaction velocity will likely accelerate as the Tucson multifamily market attracts a deeper and more diverse buyer pool. Recent Transactions in the Market MULTIFAMILY SALES ACTIVITY Property Name Street Address Units Sales Price Price per Unit CentrePoint 322 W Ina Rd., Tucson 32 $33,6, $15, Avilla Preserve 251 W Orange Grove Rd., Tucson 184 $27,6, $, La Mirada 44 E Grant St., Tucson 21 $9,41, $46,816 SUBMARKET STATISTICS Submarket Name Annual Rent Change (%) Northeast Tucson 5.% 7.3% $831 $ % Catalina Foothills 5.7% 7.9% $677 $ Oro Valley/Catalina 6.3% 8.9% $842 $ % Northwest Tucson 6.7% 7.6% $81 $ University 6.7% 7.3% $698 $ Tucson Mountain Foothills 6.9% 9.% $744 $ % Southwest Tucson 7.% 1.3% $69 $62 1.2% East Tucson 7.8% 8.5% $636 $635.2% South Central Tucson 8.2% 8.2% $586 $ % South Tucson/Airport 8.2% 8.1% $53 $56 4.7% Flowing Wells 8.3% 9.2% $568 $ % Pantano/Lakeside 9.%.6% $617 $ % North Central Tucson 1.3% 1.5% $61 $6 1.7% Southeast Tucson 29.2%.2% $526 $ % 2 Tucson Metro Area Research & Forecast Report 2 Multifamily Colliers International

3 Employment: Employment Overview > > Employment in Tucson strengthened in the second half of 2. Approximately 5,6 workers were added during the fourth quarter, following a gain of 4,1 positions during the third quarter. For 2, employers added 8,9 workers, more than two times as many jobs as were added in 2. > > The professional and business services sector has been expanding at a healthy pace in Tucson. In 2, professional employment has grown by 5.6 percent, with the addition of 2,8 workers. These jobs tend to feature some of the highest wages of any sector in the economy. > > A Tucson-based space exploration company is expanding and bringing high-wage jobs in the Southeast Tucson submarket. World View Enterprises announced plans to move into a new facility that will ultimately employ as many as 4 workers. The average salary for these jobs is expected to exceed $55, annually. Year over Year Jobs Added (s) Number of Jobs Annual Change 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.%.5% 1.% Year over Year Employment Change Construction and Permitting: > > Construction slowed in 2, following three straight years of deliveries of more than 1, units per year. In 2, approximately 55 units came online. The bulk of the deliveries in 2 were located in the Northwest Tucson submarket. > > Construction will likely gain some momentum in 216, as there are projects totaling approximately 9 units currently under construction. Most of the units that are under way are located in the northern and eastern segments of the metro area. > > Permitting is picking up in response to local economic strengthening. Permitting for multifamily units rose 1 percent in 2 to approximately 1, permits, while single-family permit issuance rose 8 percent to cover nearly 2,5 units. Construction Trends: By Submarket Units Completions 2 2 Under Construction : Quarterly Trends > > Multifamily vacancy trended lower in Tucson to close 2. The rate ended the fourth quarter at 7.8 percent, 4 basis points lower than the third quarter figure and a basis points improvement from the end of 2. > > has been declining at a steady rate. The rate was in the 9-percent range from mid-2 to mid-2, then dipped into the 8-percent range from mid-2 until the fourth quarter. If the trend continues, vacancy should average in the low- to mid-7 percent range in 216. > > The vacancy rate is tightening throughout the metro area, and many submarkets have rates that are getting quite low. Half of the submarkets in the Tucson metro feature vacancy rates of 7 percent or less. At the end of 2, not a single submarket in the market had a vacancy rate at or below 7 percent. Rate.% 1.5% 1.% 9.5% 9.% 8.5% 8.% 7.5% 7.% 3 Tucson Metro Area Research & Forecast Report 2 Multifamily Colliers International

4 Rents: Quarterly Rent Trends > > Asking rents gained momentum in the second half of 2, supported by tightening vacancy. Metrowide asking rents ended the year at $657 per month, 3 percent higher than one year ago. Asking rents rose 2.3 percent in the second half of the year. > > Rent growth has become increasingly widespread throughout the Tucson metro area. More than 9 percent of the submarkets in the Tucson metro area recorded rent increases in 2, after only about half of the submarkets in the metro posted annual rent gains in 2. > > The Class A segment of the market continues to record some of the strongest performance of all property segments. Asking rents in the Class A market ended 2 at $923 per month, 3.9 percent higher than one year earlier. Asking Rent per Month $66 $655 $65 $645 $64 $635 $63 $625 $62 $6 $61 Investment Trends: > > Sales velocity dipped 1 percent from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, but dollar volume surged; four of the five largest deals in all of 2 traded during the fourth quarter. Even after accounting for the slight dip in the final three months of the year, the total number of transactions in 2 spiked 43 percent from 2 levels. > > The median price rose nearly 4 percent in the fourth quarter, reaching $46,8 per unit. For the full year, the median price was $33,1 per unit, down from $44,6 in 2. One reason for the dip in prices was due to a greater number of Class C properties trading. > > Cap rates remained very steady in 2, averaging 6.7 percent for the year, a slight 1 basis point dip from the 2 level. As property fundamentals continue to strengthen in the coming quarters, additional cap rate compression could materialize. Investment Trends Median Price per Unit (s) $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Price per Unit Cap Rate 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Average Cap Rate 4 Tucson Metro Area Research & Forecast Report 2 Multifamily Colliers International

5 Outlook: The Tucson multifamily market will benefit from both the supply side and the demand side in 216. Following three straight years of deliveries of more than 1, units per year from 2-2, additions to inventory slowed to a more manageable level in 2, and a similar level of new construction is forecast for 216. Renter demand for apartments, which was healthy during recent periods of fairly modest economic growth, should strengthen as employers expand payrolls at a more rapid pace than in recent years. These conditions should lead to additional declines in vacancy and an uptick in rents. After being fairly flat for the first half of 2, asking rent growth gained momentum in the second half of the year, which should carry over into 216. Investors are responding to the improving underlying property fundamentals in the Tucson multifamily market. With property income revenues on the rise and forecasts calling for additional gains in 216, investors will likely continue to target multifamily assets that can be acquired at lower price points than in surrounding markets and offer competitive cap rates. The rise in development over the past few years will likely continue to support investment activity. Approximately onethird of the projects delivered since 21 have changed hands through 2, and new projects should continue to attract investor attention as they lease up. Employment Forecast Rent Forecast Net Employment Change 1, 7,5 5, 2,5 3% 2% 1% % Year over Year Change Average Aksing Rent $68 $67 $66 $65 $64 $63 $62 $61 3% 2% 1% % 1% Year over Year Rent Change 2, * Jobs Gained/Lost Annual Change 1% $ * Annual Change 2% Construction and Permitting Forecast Forecast 1,4 % 1,2 1% Permits/Units 1, * MF Permits Completions Rate 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% * FOR MORE INFORMATION Bob Mulhern Managing Director Greater Phoenix Jim Keeley SIOR Founding Partner Scottsdale Office Pete O Neil Research Director Greater Phoenix Copyright 2 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Colliers International Greater Phoenix 239 E. Camelback Road, Suite 1 Phoenix, AZ colliers.com/greaterphoenix 5 North American Research & Forecast Report 2 Office Market Outlook Colliers International

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